That's the old probabilities, so let's see how reversing the sequence of lotteries change the probabilities.
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Working in insurance got me to understand about probabilities of loss early on — probabilities that cause our continent to be food insecure.
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Remember, a core part of machine learning is a bunch of probabilities, and that these probabilities are gonna shift constantly as we try to improve the algorithms.
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Ms. Cox said the mistake lay elsewhere; there was a "failure of communication," she said, in telling readers what the numbers actually meant — that probabilities are just that, probabilities, not guarantees.
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"To the levels they want to take advantage of it, to the probabilities they want to, I can say this: I certainly have some ideas that might increase their probabilities," he said.
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The rules connecting wave functions to physical probabilities introduce very interesting complications, as we will discuss, but the central concept of entangled knowledge, which we have seen already for classical probabilities, carries over.
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These probabilities will continue to decrease as time goes on.
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Bombs change the probabilities for one of the two qubits.
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But in the world of human interactions, probabilities constantly change.
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For the moment such dangers seem possibilities rather than probabilities.
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For an interactive chart on no-deal probabilities, see - tmsnrt.
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Citi doesn't indicate preferences or probabilities to any Brexit outcome.
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There are often no previous probabilities, and even fewer certainties.
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Most of quantum mechanics deals with probabilities rather than certainties.
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Courts often assess liability on the basis of such probabilities.
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RICHARD CLARIDA: I didn't want to put probabilities on it.
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After all, precisely because the reconstructionist program is inherently "operational," meaning that it focuses on the "user experience"—probabilities about what we measure—it may never speak about the "underlying reality" that creates those probabilities.
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Because the reconstructions are now quantitative, probabilities can also be estimated.
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"Everything is probabilities," said Martin Weitzman, a Harvard University economics professor.
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There are few definite things in quantum mechanics, only a probabilities.
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He believes the humpback whales have conditional probabilities in their language.
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No, I don't think the probabilities are particularly high right now.
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"You're going to compute transition probabilities between your frames," he said.
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Probabilities emerge, assumptions are formed, scenarios are considered and ruled out.
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Those probabilities are linked in part to conditions in the Pacific.
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FiveThirtyEight quantified the trade's impact on the Celtics' win-share probabilities.
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From these bets, we can derive probabilities of each candidate winning.
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And when the unlikely happens, people scream: The probabilities were wrong!
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Then it uses those probabilities to generate random strings of words.
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"That won't bode well for Trump and his reelection probabilities," said Nauman.
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They're based on probabilities churned from intense number crunching and historical data.
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We take account of this increased error when producing probabilities of victory.
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Interestingly, Brattle analysts recommend against attempting to assign probabilities to the scenarios.
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Probabilities are now becoming anchored in your personal genetics, your individual mutations.
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"I don't think the probabilities are particularly high right now," he said.
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Any suggestion of human intelligence is an illusion based on mathematical probabilities.
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AI-driven security is well equipped to handle probabilities, behaviors and connections.
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But it wouldn't be shocking if Trump won based on those probabilities.
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The probabilities of a Sprint/T-Mobile deal became powerfully more realistic.
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While still junk-rated, these securities reflect the lowest probabilities of default.
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So we're still in euphoric territory for the probabilities of losing money.
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In its place, he suggested giving the leaders estimated probabilities of events.
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Probabilities for subsequent months in 2019 also faded with Tuesday's stock market decline.
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"Composing and appreciating music is based on probabilities at its core," Weaver said.
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LG: You don't think there's a chance, because you spoke earlier about probabilities.
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Correction (April 7th): This post has been amended to fix improperly copied probabilities.
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Guesses at probabilities are of limited usefulness when dealing with one-off events.
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We're just not sure about the probabilities, and there are so many unknowns.
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It's reasonable to acknowledge there are probabilities and uncertainties inherent in scientific predictions.
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Its conclusion: "[T]he probabilities still favor more months of bull market ahead. "
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The EAGLE has Landed: RealTime Win Probabilities in Men's Major Golf Tournaments 21.
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I think you'll see that reflected in rate hike probabilities throughout the day.
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They employ on-field strategies based on statistical probabilities, not old baseball habit.
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Calculating probabilities is how I — and all observational physicists — earn bread and butter.
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"It's just a game of probabilities," the study's lead author Sara Mazrouei said.
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I'm a professor and a scientist, so my whole life is about probabilities.
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Understand that the probabilities change as our knowledge of its precise orbit changes.
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But Five Thirty Eight is known for producing probabilities, not just straight picks.
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The IPCC will next publish a formal assessment of the probabilities in 2021.
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But in an interview he talked as much about political probabilities as principles.
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In contains only probabilities and error bars, degrees of confidence on a continuum.
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It is a game of coldly calculated probabilities, played without hunches or emotion.
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If we get past that, the probabilities increase for a fourth-quarter rally.
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Oil prices, historically another key yardstick for recession probabilities, have stayed in check.
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In classical physics, probabilities must be positive—a 30% chance of rain, say.
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The site also assigns probabilities for candidates winning all 435 individual House races.
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I LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITIES AND PROBABILITIES, BUT THE ECONOMY LOOKS QUITE STRONG.
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"People can understand probabilities if it's clear what they're attached to," Fischhoff says.
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For the predictive functionality he says he used an open source random text generator for training character recurrent neural network intensifiers — adapted to "get the probabilities out, so that you can try to block things by probabilities," as he puts it.
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Its result, in turn, determines the probabilities for the next play in the sequence.
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Never say never, but the probabilities of such a move are very, very low.
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Let's face it, we're playing a game of probabilities here," he told "Closing Bell.
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But the quantum idea of entanglement can do seemingly illogical things to the probabilities.
|
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A quantum computer might eventually beat a classical computer at generating these guided probabilities.
|
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One way to think about this is in terms of a chain of probabilities.
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Another thing we don't realize is that everything we do is governed by probabilities.
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Betting markets are bullish on a Clinton presidency—with implied probabilities hovering near 90%.
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We shouldn't merely be concerned about the earthquake, but about the uncertainty of probabilities.
|
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More than half the banks canvassed by Reuters have upped no-deal Brexit probabilities.
|
|
For a language to be a language, it also needs something called conditional probabilities.
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And you know, I -- I -- I can't speak to probabilities that people were assigning.
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Many investors, he said, preferred voting on probabilities, not binary yes-or-no outcomes.
|
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According to current market probabilities, more central-bank interest-rate cuts look highly probable.
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|
"We have to choose between probabilities, not certainties, and that is difficult," he writes.
|
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The latest is the highest since polling began for recession probabilities in January 21.5.
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And if the needle was always "right," then our probabilities would be quite wrong.
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Some are offering probabilities that the American and global economies will slip into recession.
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"Many estimates of recession probabilities have risen from low to moderate levels," Bullard said.
|
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Level 3: accurately appreciating the meaning, severity, and probabilities of developing tobacco related diseases.
|
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This year, EA began publishing probabilities of getting a higher-rated player in these packs.
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This is simply the product of the probabilities that each player makes their respective choice.
|
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They won't be able to predict exact times, but they could at least offer probabilities.
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However remote the possibility, the nuclear industry doesn't have the luxury of banking on probabilities.
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In contrast, the Google-based probabilities picked the right winner only 59 times (see chart).
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Trading against the trends can be a perilous endeavor and trading is largely about probabilities.
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By putting different probabilities on how stringently various clauses of the TPP would be enforced.
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The study measured the survival probabilities of 3,280 people in Italy aged 220 and older.
|
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This is a method that takes the indeterminate seriously as a conduit to meaningful probabilities.
|
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Are probabilities given that instead it may follow a more common path up the coast?
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"Implied probabilities of a 2020 recession are now high enough to warrant caution," Citi said.
|
|
When Drake wrote down his equation, very little was known about any of these probabilities.
|
|
For an interactive chart on no-deal probabilities assigned by a group of banks: tmsnrt.
|
|
Science-based probabilities must always be drawn from the discernible frequency of pertinent past events.
|
|
She leans on hard data, historical anecdotes, and low recession probabilities to bolster her thesis.
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But I've come to realize that I was wrong about a major aspect of probabilities.
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The rise of big data means that probabilities are becoming a larger part of life.
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The quantum computer performs the calculation and picks the next note based on the given probabilities.
|
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Even though probabilities have slipped, Clinton remains favored to beat Trump in the prediction market. PredictIt.
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The traditional way to deal with that uncertainty is by using probabilities, said Karanko of Foreca.
|
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These probabilities describe the likely progression of the sequence within the next week, month and year.
|
|
BLANKFEIN: AGAIN, I SPEND ALL OF MY TIME THINKING OF TRYING TO DERISK VERY LOW PROBABILITIES.
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But as we've seen here, there aren't really hard-and-fast rules, just patterns and probabilities.
|
|
PredictIt, a project of New Zealand's Victoria University of Wellington, converts those probabilities into U.S. cents.
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While technically fixed-income products, they pay higher rates due to higher expected probabilities of default.
|
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What humans can assess for themselves is always partial, always provisional, always a matter of probabilities.
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Ratings are also equalized reflecting the very close correlation between holding company and subsidiary default probabilities.
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|
It then calculates the outcome probabilities for each player-hole based on these expected daily averages.
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Q. Based on the PredictWise state polling probabilities, the entire election could boil down to Pennsylvania.
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Traders are treating market odds as correct probabilities and not updating enough based on outside information.
|
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This starts with estimating potential losses at various probabilities, beyond FEMA's so-called "hundred-year" event.
|
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And 95 percent of patients assigned low probabilities by the program survived longer than 12 months.
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And 95 percent of patients assigned low probabilities by the program survived longer than 12 months.
|
|
Interestingly, people in the grips of skepticism are often still willing to accept the objective probabilities.
|
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It's not a question of risk probabilities or harm reduction; it's a question of absolute safety.
|
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Here's a somewhat esoteric bur provocative paper arguing that platforms enforce their speech rules through probabilities.
|
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Recession probabilities climbed, a model maintained by the New York Fed showed, and for good reason.
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BUT IN TERMS OF THE UNCERTAINTY, AGAIN, THIS IS -- IF YOU'RE AN INVESTOR, YOU'RE WEIGHING PROBABILITIES.
|
|
Where there is no hard evidence (which is as often as not), she weighs the probabilities.
|
|
Qubits can also entangle, where the probabilities apply to combinations of two or more qubits' values simultaneously.
|
|
These probabilities were then combined into a score that estimates how accurate a proposed protein structure is.
|
|
Right now, those probabilities are wider and more uncertain than at any point since the financial crisis.
|
|
However, it puts those probabilities in the range of 2.5-1003%, less than half the markets' estimate.
|
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These estimates are based on models developed to assess the probabilities of earthquakes and aftershocks in California.
|
|
Climate prediction is always a matter of probabilities, and there is always a fair share of uncertainty.
|
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Before measurement, we can only talk in terms of the probabilities of, say, finding the particle somewhere.
|
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Those probabilities are wired into the structure as "weights" and directions in the lines between the vertices.
|
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Have some fun with it, and enjoy the fact that your team has slayed those pesky probabilities.
|
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Talk about an imminent recession is intensifying, and recession risk probabilities are creeping up – although still low.
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I think there's a way to look at it and think about it in terms of probabilities.
|
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You can follow EAGLE's projected win probabilities, updated every 15 minutes during the event, at economist.com/eagle.
|
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After the trips, researchers asked participants to recall the probabilities that had initially assigned to each outcome.
|
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Science often answers questions by giving probabilities and ranges of outcomes rather than a single exact number.
|
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A special immigration panel concluded that, "on the balance of probabilities," she was not a Russian agent.
|
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Without the Higgs, particle physicists' calculations return probabilities larger than 1, mathematical nonsense that cannot describe reality.
|
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This side of his career also found him working on projections related to military tactics and probabilities.
|
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The range of probabilities given by economists for a March rate cut ran from 10% to 90%.
|
|
Accordingly, true probabilities in mathematics must always be based upon the determinable frequency of pertinent past events.
|
|
I DO BELIEVE SOME OF THAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW WITH THESE TAX CUTS YEAH, LISTEN, IT'S PROBABLY, WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT THIS STUFF TO ME, EVERYBODY IS PROBABILITIES, RIGHT YOU ASK A QUESTION, IT PROBABLY, THE PROBABILITIES WE'LL HAVE TO HAVE SOME PAY-BACK AT SOME POINT.
|
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My work in the 123s was how to turn it into probabilities, so we could actually release numbers.
|
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In that case, the probabilities don't say anything about the ball, but about which universe we live in.
|
|
He said traders were awaiting Friday's U.S. May employment report for greater clarity on Fed rate hike probabilities.
|
|
"Combine all those probabilities and you've got a pretty good bet on countering such an attack," Leaf said.
|
|
Gone were the simple certainties of Isaac Newton's physics, replaced with only probabilities of this outcome or that.
|
|
Huebner attributed the increased exit probabilities to uncertainty among investors about forecasters' ability to predict election outcomes accurately.
|
|
Such thoughts would remove any compunction about going ahead—but it is impossible to quantify the relative probabilities.
|
|
And if you're skittish, you can always couch your predictions in probabilities and say you're 70 percent sure.
|
|
Social media, particularly Twitter, had an absolute field day about the probabilities of Trump's teeth being his own.
|
|
"The estimated probabilities of a recession remain low," he concluded of the risk to the euro zone's economy.
|
|
It is only in November, just before the presidential election, that the implied probabilities rise to 51 percent.
|
|
The vexing question then becomes: How do quantum probabilities coalesce into the sharp focus of the classical world?
|
|
Ratings are also equalized reflecting the very close correlation between holding company and subsidiary failure and default probabilities.
|
|
In the PredictIt probabilities market, Powell's odds were at 48 percent Wednesday compared with Warsh, at 28 percent.
|
|
He is a certified actuary - a professional with mathematical expertise to calculate risks and probabilities for insurance products.
|
|
Although many readers disliked it, the jitter reflected an earnest attempt to give tangible meaning to abstract probabilities.
|
|
"If the waters simply stay quiet, there are great probabilities in terms of outcome next November," he said.
|
|
Fund managers' cautious positioning in oil suggests they see roughly equal probabilities for all three outcomes at present.
|
|
Probabilities are more meaningful than safe "anything can happen" platitudes, vague "it's likely" analyses or artificially confident guarantees.
|
|
ROBERT KAPLAN: You've talked to me enough to know that I'm not going to comment on the market probabilities.
|
|
While this is uninspiring for gold, the potential for higher recession probabilities still could drive demand for safe assets.
|
|
He goes off on interesting tangents, granting the reader some light relief from detailed analysis of sampling and probabilities.
|
|
Get the probabilities right, and you can make accurate predictions about the behavior of the system as a whole.
|
|
One of the most important things to put out there will be everything's going to be based on probabilities.
|
|
Twitter users were quick to point that out with win probabilities for the election and the game: Lmao. pic.twitter.
|
|
Fortunately, the scientists didn't need to rely on what the rollers reported, because dice games have well-established probabilities.
|
|
Before we make an observation of a particle, we only get probabilities describing what the particle might look like.
|
|
In this analysis of 2015 data, Dark Sky and AccuWeather seem to be the best at using exact probabilities.
|
|
Still, the economists noted they were reluctant to cut their subjective probabilities further given uncertainty over the FOMC's intentions.
|
|
The ratings are also equalized reflecting the very close correlation between holding company and subsidiary failure and default probabilities.
|
|
If liquidity levels are less than normal, the probabilities suggest that this summer should also be worse than normal.
|
|
"The forecasting models, which assign probabilities or chances to candidates, are no better than the polls themselves," he said.
|
|
Traditionally, we have used probabilities to do so, but we increasingly doubt whether this helps readers understand the uncertainty.
|
|
Their probabilities were to add to 100 percent, including the odds on "rest of field," or another nominee emerging.
|
|
But because the flaw affected my own building, I had a greater insight into the question of earthquake probabilities.
|
|
If these life-related probabilities are high, say above 50%, then life should be extremely common in our galaxy.
|
|
Still, respondents sharply lowered their probabilities for a move by the Fed at its next meeting in late July.
|
|
It is that no one can attach objective probabilities to the various possible outcomes of the current Bitcoin enthusiasm.
|
|
And Cameron, along with much of Britain's Conservative Party, made a classic mistake of evaluating probabilities: They rounded down.
|
|
"Expected value" distills the multifaceted lottery ticket, with all its prizes and probabilities, down to a one-number summary.
|
|
The answers to those questions depend a lot on probabilities that are inherently impossible to know with any certainty.
|
|
Particles behave like waves (and vice versa), and before observing them, scientists can only explain the particles' properties using probabilities.
|
|
These quakes, of up to 5.5 magnitude, do have a positive association with investor crash probabilities, but only for individuals.
|
|
The qubits interact through entanglement, meaning you have to use the same set of probabilities to describe both their values.
|
|
In light of Monday's event, New Zealand's government earth scientists, GeoNet, have worked out a series of scenarios and probabilities.
|
|
"We have updated our probabilities of larger or similar-sized earthquakes," noted GeoNet's Sara McBride in the New Zealand Herald.
|
|
And it is speculative, because I am collapsing the mathematical probabilities in the official reports, to say something approaching definitive.
|
|
All the banks assess no-deal Brexit probabilities as less than 50%; most put it in the 10-25% range.
|
|
From there we fit a distribution around those expected values and run several thousand simulations to estimate probabilities of outcomes.
|
|
Normicons may skew to the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, which is active when making conscious choices including reasons, benefits and probabilities.
|
|
This technique generates probabilities for seven different outcomes for each golfer on each hole, ranging from eagle to quadruple bogey.
|
|
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, had been leading the pack several weeks ago on PredictIt, an online probabilities market.
|
|
EAGLE 2.0 projects all four moments of the scoring distribution for players, courses and holes, and calculates its probabilities accordingly.
|
|
Using a database of gender probabilities for each given name, the bureau was able go back and correct the misreporting.
|
|
The analysis is usually given in terms of probabilities, or increased or reduced likelihood, that climate change had an effect.
|
|
One way to counter the effects of skepticism is to stop talking about "knowledge" and switch to talking about probabilities.
|
|
Here were the probabilities that either party's nominee would have won the Electoral College despite losing the national popular vote.
|
|
The entities' ratings are also equalized reflecting the very close correlation between holding company and subsidiary failure and default probabilities.
|
|
Kaplan suggested that using those probabilities as a barometer of the likelihood of a Fed move would be a mistake.
|
|
"We don't just guess at the probabilities; we prepare for the worst," Dimon told the Harvard Business Review this year.
|
|
But it's important to be realistic and consider the darker possibilities (perhaps probabilities, if Trump's early appointments are a barometer).
|
|
When this happens, those of us who believe in probabilities can't just shake our heads and mutter about white Christmases.
|
|
Predictions are rightly constrained by a sense of probabilities; scenarios can leap enjoyably beyond that, to explore all sorts of possibilities.
|
|
I think that's feeding through into Fed probabilities, and I think that's one of the things that driving this market down.
|
|
Ratings are also equalized reflecting Fitch's view of the very close correlation between holding company and subsidiary failure and default probabilities.
|
|
As we said before, because its math uses complex numbers, it computes a special version of probabilities—not just heads vs.
|
|
"After the mission, we should be able to update all these impact probabilities, and hopefully it will go down," he says.
|
|
It comes down to a series of probabilities, and using the system for deterrence while hoping diplomacy will do its work.
|
|
Those charged saw lower re-election probabilities, but they weren't much lower: 51% compared to 58% amongst the group not charged.
|
|
Before we look, the wave function is spread out, and it accords different probabilities for the particle being in different places.
|
|
They can add more partners to their marriage, and pursue polygamy rather than monogamy in hopes of increasing their reproductive probabilities.
|
|
It's getting to the point where the probabilities of constructive corporate tax reform this year are getting smaller by the day.
|
|
True to their business models, Hollywood usually leads with its heart while Silicon Valley billionaires drill down on numbers and probabilities.
|
|
After all, quantum mechanics is a theory of probabilities; maybe what's impossible according to Einstein is possible in the quantum realm.
|
|
You're well placed to assess the probabilities here, but not as well placed as a properly constituted human-subjects review committee.
|
|
So the recession probabilities that these models hit out for the U.S. and for the eurozone are still below 50 percent.
|
|
Adding up the probabilities for each party in each seat produces a forecast for a party's expected number of seats nationwide.
|
|
We've tried cards, dice and coin flips as analogies, but they don't cover all of the necessary probabilities without getting complicated.
|
|
At the 50-yard line, the touchdown and field-goal probabilities go up to 42% and 25%, while turnovers drop to 8%.
|
|
Each particle comes with a special equation, from which you can get a list of its allowed properties, alongside their given probabilities.
|
|
Unlike the criminal system, the burden of proof is a balance of probabilities instead of a standard of beyond a reasonable doubt.
|
|
The following tables show two examples of what the probabilities could be for finding the system in each of those four states.
|
|
It continues on, applying the probabilities to the qubits and measuring the outcome, to produce both a harmony and a melody line.
|
|
Alexei Grinbaum But this so-called rule for calculating probabilities was really just an intuitive guess by the German physicist Max Born.
|
|
However, those probabilities have proven volatile based on the prevailing conditions of the day as well as public statements from Fed officials.
|
|
Quantum mechanics only gives the probabilities that your bag contains either ball color, and that's all you know before making the observation.
|
|
There is a way things go in the game, predetermined by equations and probabilities and others things too boring to talk about.
|
|
These patterns described detailed probabilities for individual voters, going well beyond showing whether someone with certain characteristics was likely to support Obama.
|
|
In widely traded markets, the resulting odds reflect the "wisdom of crowds," and are close to true probabilities, Mr. Vaughan Williams said.
|
|
Geometrically, the events should look like the temporal inverse of each other and the probabilities of each event occurring should be related.
|
|
It's true, the probabilities for even a June rate hike—let alone April--declined dramatically in the face of the Fed meeting.
|
|
FiveThirtyEight said it forecasts win probabilities by simulating the election 20,000 times, producing a distribution of possible outcomes for every state nationwide.
|
|
That is another reason downside puts are often more expensive (and thus appear to price in higher probabilities) than congruent upside calls.
|
|
Before the measurement, the various superposed states interfere with one another in a wavelike manner, producing outcomes with higher or lower probabilities.
|
|
The fundamentals favor Hillary Clinton, and every major respected election forecaster has her winning, with probabilities ranging from 68 to 99 percent.
|
|
Beyond this, I think there is value in giving people a better sense of probabilities - again, using contexts that are more familiar.
|
|
Last year, a coding error in the STRmix program was reported to have affected probabilities in dozens of cases in Queensland, Australia.
|
|
I would love to have seen the probabilities of us being able to come home and see Game 7 before the series.
|
|
You know, some of the graphic representations of what the polls were saying, the probabilities, were I think, although correct, misleading. Right.
|
|
Prior work had suggested that nonexperts had trouble understanding probabilities, in this case the probability-of-precipitation statements made by weather forecasters.
|
|
" Milley also made an interesting point that "in the world we deal in, we don't deal in certainties, we deal in probabilities.
|
|
They used a dataset that maps causal relationships between real-world phenomena, such as smoking and lung cancer, in terms of probabilities.
|
|
Moreover, even when such an indispensable subdivision is properly applied, capable analysts can still never offer any scientifically-based assessment of probabilities.
|
|
In any other scenario, election then referendum, or straight to referendum, the distribution of probabilities shifts towards a soft Brexit or remain.
|
|
But then we discovered quantum physics and we realized that everything was a field of probabilities and it wasn't actually physical objects.
|
|
You're always working with probabilities, and you make a decision, not based on 100% certainty, but with the best information that you've got.
|
|
The tool, known as OpecWatch, uses West Texas Intermediate crude oil options markets to calculate the probabilities of certain outcomes of OPEC meetings.
|
|
To distinguish quantum theory from a generalized probability theory, you need specific kinds of constraints on the probabilities and possible outcomes of measurement.
|
|
Diffenbaugh says the lower probabilities associated with precipitation extremes is due in large part to the greater variability, or "noisiness," in precipitation data.
|
|
As I read it, those probabilities must be reasonably high for SC, but nothing like the 99+ percent probability of a Clinton win.
|
|
Pundits are fond of blaming quantitative forecasters, trafficking in polls and probabilities, for their failure to foresee Donald Trump's ascension to the presidency.
|
|
Update October 18th, 9:45AM ET: This post has been updated to include a picture of a windspeed probabilities graphic with expanded boundaries.
|
|
This point-sized universe evolved based on the mathematics of general relativity with the initial probabilities of quantum mechanics built into its structure.
|
|
"At this point, the probabilities for both scenarios having major impacts on the technology sector in the short term are low," Garnry said.
|
|
In their study, researchers used computer simulations that they programmed to make decisions rationally, based on the probabilities of good or bad news.
|
|
"The estimated probabilities of a (euro zone) recession remain low," he said, adding that a weakening of inflation would "probably bottom" in September.
|
|
Quantum mechanics requires probabilities to add to 1, or be "normalizable," but the wildly fluctuating universe that Turok's team landed on is not.
|
|
Humans tend to place subjectively higher probabilities on negative outcomes than positive outcomes and assign greater weight to negative news than positive news.
|
|
The best we can do is establish probabilities in our field, especially when trying to reconstruct what was going on 4,500 years ago.
|
|
To look into Jupiter's past, Liu's team estimated the probabilities of different collision scenarios at various angles and ran thousands of computer simulations.
|
|
The defense rebutted those assertions and challenged the reliability of the program, which uses an algorithm to determine probabilities for usually unusable data.
|
|
Yet while forecasts from Fed officials suggest roughly three rate hikes could come this year, futures markets see only two, based on probabilities.
|
|
Statements given to Paget and evidence at the inquest I'll only post up if I think, on a balance of probabilities, it's true.
|
|
Dr. Stark describes the overall system of earthquake probabilities as "somewhere between meaningless and misleading" and has called for it to be scrapped.
|
|
But because global warming is increasing those odds, being resilient and prepared means incorporating the changing probabilities into planning, design and operation decisions.
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It sounds as if your friends simply disagree with your assessments of the probabilities, but you're not obligated to defer to their judgment.
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In a random geometry, if you know the location of some points, you can (at best) assign probabilities to the location of subsequent points.
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If you didn't have a problem with the system then but do now, you're either being disingenuous or you don't understand how probabilities work.
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As the details take shape and markets begin to discount the probabilities, we'll see if stocks can hold these valuations in the New Year.
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They also calculated probabilities of complications like heart attacks, pneumonia, a blockage in the pulmonary artery or death in the first year after surgery.
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The weights are the probabilities of the survival scenario in question and account for the fact that the rich live longer than the poor.
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Ancestry tests are based on sound science, but variables in data sets and algorithms mean results are probabilities, not facts, as many people expect.
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In QBism, quantum probabilities calculated by the Born rule don't tell us what we'll measure, but only what we should rationally expect to measure.
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Utilizing PixelCNN, the network looks at probabilities of what would be in a given pixel of a given class of images at that size.
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Technologists inhabit the worlds of deterministic logic and computable probabilities, but lawyers are at home amid unpredictability, noncompliance, and even the possibility of catastrophe.
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But physicists in the mid-19th century adopted a different method, asking how those probabilities played out in one world only—your world, a.k.a.
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Google can do a bit of math itself of course, but Wolfram Alpha covers fractions, probabilities, and other advanced calculations in much more depth.
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While the Breakthrough scenario sets out some of the more 'high end' risk possibilities, it is often not possible to meaningfully quantify their probabilities.
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"We have been considering tweaking the set of probabilities for various scenarios we last tweaked on February 13th," J.P. Morgan economist Malcolm Barr said.
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Taylor said that it can automate a "large amount" of the process and says that the answers the AI system gives come with probabilities.
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Probabilities for another Fed rate hike have diminished considerably, with the outlook now for no more than two moves in the next 12 months.
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But the courts have been ready to read the probabilities, and hold companies liable for damages when the likelihood of causation is high enough.
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Those probabilities are based on impeccable science, for which we have profound respect, but constant repetition of a problem does not solve the problem.
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From the standpoint of today, the future is always going to be a range of probabilities—things more or less likely to happen tomorrow.
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For now, Fordham said she was loathe to assign probabilities to further developments on the peninsula given the volatility of variables in the mix.
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Trade policy uncertainty remains elevated, U.S. manufacturing already appears in recession, and many estimates of recession probabilities have risen from low to moderate levels.
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Divinational gazing is an ocular technique based on surpassing visual expectations that takes the unclear seriously as a conduit to worthwhile "more-than" probabilities.
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Examining the numerical probabilities of the ailments I feared meant I could digest the risks the same way I would approach a poker game.
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Specifically, the study examined how the probabilities have changed between the early part of the 20th century and the early part of the current century.
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If you have two particles interacting and one's innate physical properties relies on the other's, then their associated probabilities, and therefore their identities, are intertwined.
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This indicates "high probabilities of making money (with average 18% upward moves looking out 12 months)," Levkovich said in a note to clients on Monday.
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All models do is take an enormous set of inputs, run calculations on them, and spit out a range of possible outcomes, with probabilities attached.
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"It was based on that and I just extracted the probabilities to try to recursively build up the tree structure of the keyboard," he explains.
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Using polls' record of accuracy in past American presidential contests, it is possible to construct rough probabilities of victory for Mr Trump and Mrs Clinton.
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The range of probabilities for recession in the next 20173 months was 5 to 60 percent, although the consensus likelihood was just one-in-five.
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But in the balance of probabilities, the prospects of a fresh and decisive hand on the Commission's tiller did not necessarily diminish in Helsinki today.
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To help people prepare for a storm, scientists at the NHC prepare maps showing the color-coded probabilities of where high-speed winds might reach.
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If OPEC were to surprise the market by deepening production cuts, prices are likely to rise very sharply as those probabilities are reappraised ex post.
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"The data this week could be key in tilting the probabilities of future rate cuts or a 50-basis-point cut this July," he added.
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And while quantum theory allows you to calculate probabilities for what you'll find when you do your measurement, the particular result is always fundamentally random.
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Fourteen and fifteen: A good pitch and a bad one, both sent foul as this at-bat crept further outside the bounds of MLB probabilities.
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"Whether it's for ecology or to try and alert people to sharks,our project is focussed on developing the detection probabilities of sharks," added Johnston.
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Recently, the rise of Mr. Trump has actually decreased the PredictWise probabilities for a Democratic victory, to 70 percent today from 76 percent last week.
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A study published in the journal Ecological Applications predicts extinction probabilities of 16 percent to 28 percent over the next 50 years for these lions.
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"The data this week could be key in tilting the probabilities of future rate cuts or a 20.1-basis-point cut this July," he added.
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As hedge fund managers, economists, policy researchers, doctors and bookmakers have long been aware, the way to make decisions while managing risk is through probabilities.
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The earthquake probabilities that are provided on seismic hazard maps, for example, have crucial consequences, most notably in instructing engineers how they should construct buildings.
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"But this time I think the probabilities are increasing, so we've got to start thinking long term that something may actually happen here," he said.
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A 13-year-old boy from Texas won a national math competition on Monday with an answer rooted in probabilities — and a dash of farming.
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Parker: Our model produces both top line and district-level probabilities, but we prefer to focus on margins since those are a little more intuitive.
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The quantum computer imparts the switch with the probabilities, then solves problems by making the switches talk to one another, kind of like tying them together.
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The end result is one or several possible binary strings, with the final value given to the user determined by the probabilities encoded in the equations.
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Instead, Hardy focused on probability: specifically, the probabilities that relate the possible states of a system with the chance of observing each state in a measurement.
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Climatologists deal in probabilities, so it is hard to establish a causal link between a country's or company's emissions and the damage wrought by greenhouse gases.
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And the problem is, looking at the probabilities, if the Fed just delivers on what the market is expecting, it's not going to have an impact.
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"The official consensus probabilities favor La Niña to persist through January and February," says Mike Halpert, Mike Halpert, deputy director of the agency's Climate Prediction Center.
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A Defence Ministry spokesman said on Sunday the study, labeled Strategic Perspective 2040, made "robust predictions" but did not attach probabilities to them or trigger decisions.
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"While buying has been strong over the past couple of sessions, the probabilities are this rebound will be measured in days rather than weeks," Lowry said.
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By adding those probabilities together, we get an estimate for how many tournaments they were expected to win in that period, which is 290 (see chart).
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When he says the majority of climate science is "a matter of probabilities," he is implying that scientists don't actually know what, if anything, will happen.
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When any competition that EAGLE predicts is in progress, its projected leaderboard and estimated probabilities of winning will be displayed at the top of this post.
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Yes, 220 billion simulated holesFinally, with these probabilities in hand, we deployed the Monte Carlo simulation method, originally developed by nuclear-weapons scientists in the 2156s.
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Q. Speaking of that correlation, PredictWise says Clinton's probabilities are currently in the 80s in in each of these states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire.
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" In Philadelphia, she noted to me that "we convict people on probabilities rather than absolute certainty, and we've executed people based on inferences from available evidence.
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It isn't a modifier on probabilities in a crap shoot of a fight, it must be made to mean something in each moment of each fight.
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Markets often exhibit herding behavior and excessive volatility, and even at best they are judging probabilities in an uncertain world, not issuing prophecies about the future.
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But Strategas added that the current probabilities of the GOP keeping that Senate majority, near 75 percent, are too high given the tightening in some polls.
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But I think math troubles — in particular, the difficulty people have in understanding probabilities — have played an important role in creating the mess that is Brexit.
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Another challenge was to take data which is based on probabilities and show the sector that it could be presented in a useful and functional manner.
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Instead of the clear-cut positions and movements of Newtonian physics, we have a cloud of probabilities described by a mathematical structure known as a wave function.
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CME Group uses fed funds futures contracts, which traders purchase in anticipation of where they think the rate will be, to calculate probabilities for rate moves ahead.
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Yeah, that two-star at the bottom of your class could be special—when it comes to probabilities, there's always a chance that the unlikely will happen.
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At the end, how the qubits evolve is set by the rules of quantum mechanics, but the final measurement could take on different values with different probabilities.
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It takes its cue from the Bayesian approach to classical probability developed in the 18th century, in which probabilities stem from personal beliefs rather than observed frequencies.
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Finally, in order to calculate final-result probabilities, we need to account for the potential errors surrounding these estimates, using the accuracy figures from the historical database.
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The most reliable measure of team quality comes from Rugby Vision, a predictive model assembled by Niven Winchester, an economist at MIT who also researches rugby probabilities.
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U.S. CPC SEES PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50 PCT FOR SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, INCLUDING ALASKA PANHANDLE, PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND NORTHEAST REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG EAST COAST TO FLORIDA
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But despite the small probabilities involved, the vast number of red dwarfs out there mean that the existence of a Krypton-like planet is still a possibility.
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Dramsch says that measuring the level of stress in a fault is almost impossible, especially at depth, leaving us with probabilities instead of certainties of earthquakes happening.
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The statistical probabilities say players peak around age 32, so teams are hesitant to commit to, say, $30 million a year through age 36 for these guys.
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But ultimately, the weather is a super-complex physics problem with tons of moving pieces that make totally accurate forecasting difficult and reliant on models and probabilities.
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Of course, these deep-rooted feelings influence our approach at the office, where women are significantly less likely to tackle large assignments with murky probabilities for success.
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The latest probabilities from Betfair on the UK staying in the EU showed a slight dip to 68.5 percent on Monday from around 70 percent on Saturday.
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U.S. CPC SEES PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50 PCT FOR ALASKA, AREAS IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST; BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
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Still, although probabilities suggests that, yes, anything can technically happen on any given day, the main thing that will happen on Transfer Deadline Day is, well, transfers.
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" Aside from the 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit warming of the planet since 1880, he wrote, "much else that passes as accepted fact is really a matter of probabilities.
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The last two winters have been exceptionally mild; if this winter proves colder, which is likely simply on the basis of probabilities, inventories could come under pressure.
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A vast body of work exists that argues for private sector solutions to cyber intrusions of industry or utilities based on realistic probabilities and cost benefit analyses.
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Yes, 220 billion simulated holes Finally, with these probabilities in hand, we deployed the Monte Carlo simulation method, originally developed by nuclear-weapons scientists in the 2156s.
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If you were to average the two probabilities (the polling and the race ratings), you would end up with Walker having a 53% chance of winning reelection.
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Most longer-term, seasonal forecasts, which look at weather probabilities a month or more in the future, do not focus on heat waves or other extreme events.
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Also this year, recession signals like the yield curve and probabilities measured by the New York Fed hit post-crisis milestones, indicating that all was not well.
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Quite the opposite, it argues that our decisions are really reflections of our character, and therefore our character constrains the probabilities of our actions in future timelines.
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Often, there is a little fragment of hope, if only for a few more weeks of life, as medicine is almost always about probabilities rather than certainties.
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"My own view — and I am just looking at the possibilities and probabilities — is that it is a slowdown, not on the way to zero," he said.
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You exist in a mixed state of hyper-vigilance and fret; you go back-and-forth discussing the storm's probabilities and what gambles you're willing to take.
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I put all the random events into a table of probabilities so it would be easy to add new events or adjust the probability of things happening.
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The weird stuff kicks in when you "entangle" particles together, making them interact in a way that the particles must be described using the same list of probabilities.
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An exact date and location for the historic meeting have yet to be determined, though neutral countries like Sweden and Switzerland are high on the list of probabilities.
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KAPLAN: SO, HAVING LIVED MY CAREER IN THE MARKETS, I WOULD SAY MARKETS HAVE A TENDENCY TO MOVE THOSE KIND OF PROBABILITIES AND DO IT VERY, VERY RAPIDLY.
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These oscillations can only happen if neutrinos also have three possible mass states, where each flavor has distinct probabilities of being in each of the three mass states.
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There is a whole multitude of options, and assigning probabilities to scenarios as extreme as nuclear Armageddon or lasting peace on the Korean peninsula is no easy task.
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The system, which is essentially a web app that can accept DNA sequences, compares known color phenotypes to known data and tells you the probabilities of each color.
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The formula takes as its input probabilities calculated from the number of times that photons land on particular detectors (based on the setting of the two phase shifts).
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In other words, when the performance factors are quantified and treated as fungible, players can be mixed and matched in a cost-effective way to maximize win probabilities.
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But we first need more data from animals to see if there's a universal pattern to look out for, one that signals the language contains these conditional probabilities.
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"The direct and circumstantial evidence in Amri's case proves, on a balance of probabilities, that he was abducted by state agents, namely the Special Branch," the panel said.
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I'm experiencing the same abstraction that I get when I read about the historical battle; it's all numbers, probabilities, and thinking about what I might have done wrong.
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We do not think about the statistical probabilities or compare the likelihood of such events with far more present dangers, like increasing rates of childhood diabetes or depression.
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"What climate change does is change probabilities, so if we see an increasing probability of large losses from wildfires that indicates that climate change is contributing," added Rauch.
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One of the longest chapters in the American Contract Bridge League's "Encyclopedia of Bridge" lists precise probabilities for alternative approaches to playing hundreds of specific combinations of cards.
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Statistical probabilities indicate that, as a thirty-two-year-old African-American male, Castile was eight times more likely to be murdered than other members of the population.
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Given enough humdrum hitters, the sum of their low probabilities of a four-home-run game can exceed that of the small handful of sluggers with truly elite talent.
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Mr Nadal outperformed those probabilities on both surfaces—he won seven of twelve matches on hard courts and twelve of fourteen on clay—but the ratio is about right.
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"We all agree how to use the theory but there's no consensus about the reality it gives us"Trouble is, describing particles with probabilities leads to some messy stuff.
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And of course climate science — especially when it tries to project damages at smaller temporal and geographic scales, like the next several decades — is filled with probabilities and uncertainties.
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The probabilities for a single particle are one thing, but when a bunch of particles are together interacting—we say that they're correlated—the problems become very, very hard.
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A political ratings system adjusted midterm election probabilities following the health care vote -- and 20 GOP "yea" voters saw their districts start to lean a little more left. 4.
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"You are still in the world of multiplying probabilities, which means that the outcome of that exercise is actually lower than you'd like it to be," Chudnovsky told Recode.
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Rate hike probabilities for September and December had risen after last Friday's remarks by Fed Chair Janet Yellen that the case for raising rates had strengthened in recent months.
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BUT IT'S A FACT THEY HAVE MORE RISK THAN WE DO. SECOND, WHEN THEY RAISE TARIFFS SAY ON OUR SOYBEANS, THE PROBABILITIES ARE THEY'RE GONNA RAISE THEIR OWN COSTS.
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Climate science confronts us with a skein of overlapping risks of varying probabilities, some of them high probability and moderately severe, many of them low probability but extremely severe.
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The program, known as STRmix, is one of a few that use sophisticated algorithms to determine statistical probabilities from genetic data, sometimes from as little as a few cells.
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Yet despite its apparent ordinariness, Norwich is home to a probabilities puzzle for the statistics students at Dartmouth College, less than two miles away as the hermit thrush flies.
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But no-deal Brexit probabilities remain around 15-20%, according to Lund, who expects lawmakers to call a no-confidence vote against any prime minister who chooses that route.
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They were in chat rooms with Weather Service offices across the country to gather real-time accounts and to field questions about pending forecasts that are rooted in probabilities.
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Considering the widespread charges of fight fixing that dogged the Pride days, I'd be shocked if all 13 fights at the arena were on the level based on probabilities alone.
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One possible way to do this is suggested by his work on the amplituhedron, which casts quantum mechanical probabilities (and with them, unitarity) as emergent consequences of an underlying geometry.
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Only the strings of binary numbers permitted by the quantum algorithms will appear, and if more than one is permitted, each will appear with a frequency based on those probabilities.
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The quality of the players inside each pack varies, though as of FIFA 19, EA does now share the odds (or "Pack Probabilities") of gamers finding each class of player.
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It was intended to attract new customers who may not have been familiar with the financial markets, but were "more familiar with the probabilities of spectator sports," the company said.
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Barclays global equity analyst Keith Parker said he had expected the S&P 500 could trade as to as low as 2,000, based on the probabilities of a Trump win.
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In the worst circumstances, they must do the unwieldy work of computing probabilities for all possible output strings—all 2100 of them—and then randomly select samples from that distribution.
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The assets of insurers are usually liquid and their liabilities tend to be tied to specific events—such as someone getting ill, retiring or dying—whose probabilities can be calculated.
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Based on those probabilities, the company can reliably predict whether a user is on a phone or a smart TV or an old Dell, and optimize service for maximum impact.
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The rules also tighten the standards for hiring of chief actuaries, professionals who assess the probabilities of an event occurring among other things, on whose calculations insurance pricing is determined.
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He noted the company has a "pretty good idea" on how to properly assess the probabilities for earthquakes in California and hurricanes in Florida, but not with computer hacking threats.
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Kahneman and Tversky write about the kind of decisions that you might call casino decisions — in which people confront various probabilities and try to calculate which course will be best.
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Those decaying events can't be predicted with certainty; the best we can do (so far at least) is calculate probabilities about the chances certain atoms have of decaying, and when.
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And that's what happened Tuesday: The election models calculated the probabilities of a Clinton win that turned out to be high, because they viewed each state too much in isolation.
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After the government reported Friday morning strong retail sales from the holiday season and higher-than-expected core inflation, Fed rate hike probabilities shot up and moved into earlier months.
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Further to what we now know about ascertainable probabilities in such unprecedented circumstances, there is no reliable way to figure out exactly, or even "probably," how it would all end.
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By 2008, however, Ultych observes, ideologically extreme candidates and moderates became indistinguishable in their likelihood of winning an election, with predicted probabilities of winning hovering around 50 percent for both.
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If we give Atlanta′s scoring probabilities to the Patriots and vice versa starting at the second round of possessions, reflecting this consensus, the Falcons′ chances of victory fall to 18.3%.
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In probability theory, the GCI proof now permits exact calculations of rates that arise in "small-ball" probabilities, which are related to the random paths of particles moving in a fluid.
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The algorithms powering the product function by seeking to understand probabilities and uncertainty around each individual, says co-founder Dr Elina Berglund, who previously worked as a particle physicist at CERN.
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The key to producing a quantum computer is finding a way to model a quantum system that folks can actually control—actually set the probabilities and orientations of those flipping coins.
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Perfect World, Valve's Chinese partner for Dota 2, announced its loot rates earlier this week, along with Riot, which has similarly released probabilities for loot and crafting in League of Legends.
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"Before DACA, Individual Plaintiffs, brought to America as children, faced a tough set of life and career choices turning on the comparative probabilities of being deported versus remaining here," he wrote.
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From there, the AI begins to calculate theoretical options, a massive tree of branching possibilities that it assigns probabilities to in order to determine what the most likely outcome will be.
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And you won't know what state a qubit is at until you measure it and the qubit is yanked out of its quantum world of probabilities into our mundane physical reality.
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Lund said however no-deal Brexit probabilities remain around 15-20%, because lawmakers could call a no-confidence vote against any prime minister who chooses that route, potentially triggering snap elections.
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According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the Fed is not expected to raise rates this year until December, while the probabilities of a rate hike in November are 49 percent.
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"Absolutist words"—which convey absolute magnitudes or probabilities, such as "always", "nothing" or "completely"—were found to be better markers for mental health forums than either pronouns or negative emotion words.
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As a result, players who have tended to fare disproportionately well on long holes will receive higher win probabilities on long courses and lower ones on short courses, and vice versa.
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"NOAA noted in its recent statement that the Birmingham National Weather Service had "spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time.
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"Unfortunately we cannot give probabilities that a planet has life at this point since we still only have one data point – the Earth – for which we know life exists," Kane cautioned.
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Those precise probabilities were generated by scientists at the United States Geological Survey (USGS), using models based on longstanding principles of seismic behavior and decades of data on aftershocks from earthquakes.
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A loss creates some suspense across the final two weeks, diminishing the Chiefs' probabilities of securing a bye in the playoffs to 28 percent and the top seed to 25 percent.
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Quantum particles, at any point, are in a quantum state of probabilities, where properties like position, momentum, and spin of the particle are not precisely determined until there is some measurement.
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"The Birmingham National Weather Service's Sunday morning tweet spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time," NOAA said in the statement.
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Using that information, the ESA experts calculated even higher probabilities that the two satellites might hit one another — eventually getting to a more than 230 in 1,000 chance of an impact.
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For those who are not math-competent, Wang explains the seemingly complex probabilities of AYTO very simply, pointing out that it uses factorials, the kind you learned about in elementary school.
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Mexico's Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said on Friday there were "very good probabilities" Mexico and the United States could resolve key issues between themselves in NAFTA trade talks next week.
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But you can entangle the qubits, which is like magnetizing the iron pieces so that the dice must be treated as a single multi-sided dice with its own set of probabilities.
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In the world we live in ("real" or not), we act based on probabilities, using highly fallible and unreliable cognitive tools, amid a flurry of oncoming evidence and a haze of uncertainty.
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Clinton's lead over Mr. Trump nationally is 3.7 points; our friends at FiveThirtyEight have a slightly smaller estimate of 3.4 points, but our overall probabilities of winning differ by 12 percentage points.
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"The NOAA disavowed itself from that tweet, saying that the Birmingham National Weather Service "spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time.
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American families and businesses are being put in harm's way as sea levels are rising along their coasts and they are exposed to rising probabilities of heatwaves and other extreme weather events.
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"If you ask us if we're surprised that this happened, well, we hope it doesn't, but honestly, the probabilities go up when there are more sharks in the water," Mr. Naylor said.
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We put estimated probabilities on each outcome, as a signal of how confident we were in each forecast and so you could hold us to account accordingly if we got them wrong.
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If one domino starts to fall, it could take others down — and probabilities start to add up, potentially taking the market down the same 80 percent that Mt. Gox did in 2014.
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Strikingly, a simple linear regression suggests that changes in these probabilities explain 40-50% of the variation in the Bank of England's broad trade-weighted sterling index over the last few weeks.
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Even when you add together the probabilities of the top three in our rankings, it indicates that there's roughly a 20163% chance someone outside our top three will become the Democratic nominee.
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When you look at probabilities and then you start to cluster the data and people then have data, do you think there could be any chance of it reinforcing positive or negative stereotypes?
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In a letter sent to Christ and the ED's Civil Rights Division, Zhao expressed outrage over her statement, calling it a "racial quota" that would "hurt the admissions probabilities" of Asian American students.
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The CME Group's FedWatch tool, which tracks current and past probabilities of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate changes, showed over a 95 percent chance that rates will remain unchanged through July 2019.
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I read hundreds, if not thousands of other facts, possibilities, probabilities, and potentialities like this, which remind me how amazing it is that our society holds together even in the best of times.
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We have put estimated probabilities on each outcome, as a signal of how confident we are in each forecast and so you can hold us to account accordingly if we get them wrong.
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"Given the evidence, we believe that the probabilities of each candidate of winning are as follows: Fillon (40 percent), Macron (35 percent), Le Pen (20 percent) and (Benoit) Hamon (5 percent)," Citi added.
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"Any aggressive action by the regulatory bodies could create the trigger for a new downturn and we now think the probabilities are increasing they may well take action prior to June," Christopher said.
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" JACOB OUBINA, SENIOR U.S. ECONOMIST, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK "If you look at the probabilities going into this thing, it was actually slightly dovish because of ending the runoff earlier than expected.
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Here's where the math and the probabilities get really interesting: A whopping 503 members of the 100 member Senate have been serving in one part of Congress for every single year since 1997.
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These are probabilities that are subject to continuous review, especially given the unpredictability and the inherent complexity of protectionism; and they also highlight the importance of calm and calculated strategies on all side.
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Normally the accused in a criminal case doesn't have to prove anything, but if they are arguing automatism, they need to show, on a balance of probabilities, that the offences were committed involuntarily.
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For the influence that Hekker wields on a game, his capacity for maximizing field position, diminishing scoring probabilities and running a fake, Turney considers Hekker the best special-teams player in the league.
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" After days of controversy, NOAA released an unsigned statement Friday that suggested the Birmingham tweet "spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time.
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"Our models are probabilistic in nature; we do a lot of thinking about these probabilities, and the goal is to develop probabilistic estimates that hold up well under real-world conditions," he writes.
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They will eventually be capable of judgments based on a sensitivity to empirical detail and an assessment of probabilities that no software engineer could anticipate in advance or replicate even after the fact.
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"With the scale and scope of the trade war increasing further over the last week, we revised our inflation and growth forecasts, and adjusted our Fed probabilities," the analysts said in a research note.
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"Before you can even get people to talk in any sort of rational, statistics-based way, of the probabilities of X, Y, and Z occurring, you have to attenuate [their] negative emotions," Cikara says.
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"We find evidence that investors use recent market performance to estimate probabilities about a crash," Shiller, his Yale colleague William Goetzmann and Dasol Kim of Case Western Reserve University write in a working paper.
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Two decades later, IBM stumbled on an approach that would revive optimism about MT. Its Candide system was the first serious attempt to use statistical probabilities rather than rules devised by humans for translation.
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Quantum mechanics replaced wholesale the centuries-old notion of a clockwork, deterministic universe with a reality that deals in probabilities rather than certainties—one where the very act of measurement affects what is measured.
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It's important to note that NOAA discusses La Niña's influence in terms of probabilities: the likelihood of warmer, cooler, wetter, or drier-than-average conditions, rather than the absolute the strength of the effect.
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Through a monumental summing of probabilities across each and every possible combination of sources, the model spits out the most likely ones, with considerable precision—down to 50 metres or so in some cases.
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Because everything in the pieces is probabilistic and because the probabilities pile up it can take a very long time to get an idea of all the variations that might occur in the piece.
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Researchers presented respondents with a fictional news item about a long-range missile test and gave them a choice of "preferred" U.S. military responses and probabilities the attack would prevent North Korea from retaliating.
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"The word from Fillon is that he soldiers on regardless, and that leaves Macron as the candidate most likely to win in terms of betting probabilities," said Societe Generale strategist Ciaran O'Hagan, in Paris.
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Those findings, along with a computer algorithm that also matched faces and names better than chance probabilities, all go toward the research team's hypothesis that a face might really be a reflection of a name.
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The mass states travel through space differently, so by the time a neutrino goes from point A to point B, this mix of probabilities will have changed, and a detector could measure a different flavor.
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The model deems Germany's elimination slightly more shocking than the two other big surprises of this tournament: that Sweden and Russia would make it to the quarter-finals (with probabilities of 10% and 8%, respectively).
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At the behest of criminal investigation units, portraits are algorithmically produced by third-party DNA phenotyping services, based on probabilities generated by a type of machine learning that "predicts" physical appearances from collected facial scans.
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On the other hand, I think that if you've got people who are just fishing around on smaller type things and low probabilities of finding things or anything like that, I think privacy trumps security.
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The goal of all the connected information is to support text analysis by mixing interpretations with probabilities — this is very similar to the way humans use rapid process of elimination to accomplish the same task.
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"Recent geopolitical developments have led me to raise my probabilities of trade and other types of wars, such as capital wars, cyber wars (and possibly even shooting wars)," Dalio wrote in a LinkedIn blog post.
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Update: Tom Vilsack (discussion below) has emerged as one of Hillary Clinton's top choices for vice president: Toni With the Melania Trump controversy, this being The Upshot, let's start with a look at the probabilities.
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"That's why we've raised rates once already and why ... we said that, on the balance of probabilities, it seems likely that some further tightening of policy might be needed over the period ahead," he added.
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If the "Conference Finals or Bust" noise coming out of Los Angeles is to be believed, and if probabilities bear out, these next few months may be the last for this era of the Clippers.
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These services' ancestral algorithms are based on estimates and probabilities, not certainties, but they nevertheless claim to distill the self into a series of appealingly specific data points onto which personal narratives can be written.
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Briefly, forecasting experts — including Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, Jeff Sagarin and Ken Pomeroy — exhaustively analyze the teams in the tournament, feeding team statistics into models, which give probabilities on each team's advancement to every round.
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And that's when I decided to work on creating probabilities, and we create the probability and hand it to the policymakers, the elected officials who understand all those other things, and they can use that information.
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"I think the probabilities are increasing that you'll have some type of dynamic where there is an announcement of a scrapping of NAFTA," he said at a Canadian Bank CEO conference hosted by RBC in Toronto.
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When he reveals in his column that "much else that passes as accepted fact is really a matter of probabilities," Stephens just knows that dropping such a truth bomb is going to get him in trouble.
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That episode is about probabilities, not biology, and given that the gender-chromosome information is outdated, it's not surprising that Netflix or the company from which it bought the rights to the show cut that segment.
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Nightclubs and sports grounds may face pressure to protect people by scanning entrants' faces for the threat of violence—even though, owing to the nature of machine-learning, all facial-recognition systems inevitably deal in probabilities.
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He and his group had already spent years developing an understanding of similar problems involving graph theory and probabilities, and they thought the intuitions and insights they had developed might prove useful on this evolution problem.
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RATING SENSITIVITIES Increasing the default probabilities assigned to the underlying obligors by 25% could result in a downgrade of up to three notches for the H notes and up to two notches for the other classes.
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"As recession signals begin to flash and recession probabilities increase, I would expect market participants and people who deploy capital will become more cautious and there's a risk that it's a self-fulfilling prophecy," Cabana said.
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"As recession signals begin to flash, and recession probabilities increase, I would expect market participants and people who deploy capital will become more cautious and there's a risk that is a self-fulfilling prophecy," he said.
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For each golfer on each hole in each tournament, we pulled random numbers ranging from zero to one 245,156 times, using the previously-calculated probabilities to assign each number to an outcome like birdie or bogey.
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For each golfer on each hole in each tournament, we pulled random numbers ranging from zero to one 245,45 times, using the previously-calculated probabilities to assign each number to an outcome like birdie or bogey.
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This total, known as a VAEP score (Valuing Actions by Estimating Probabilities), was then averaged out across every league game from the start of the 20163-2014 season to the end of the 2017-18 season.
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"The Birmingham National Weather Service's Sunday morning tweet spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time," read the unsigned statement from the NOAA on September 6.
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In contrast to the high burden of proof in criminal court where evidence must prove a fact beyond a reasonable doubt, most civil courts like the CICB apply a lower standard called the balance of probabilities.
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After two exceptionally mild winters in North America in 2178/13 and 21/227, the coming winter is likely to be colder, on the balance of probabilities, in which case heating oil stocks could prove tight.
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Source: Strategas Research "If the probabilities of the Republicans keeping the Senate are falling, then I think investors are remaining too optimistic and think no change is occurring," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.
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At the same time, though this proposed pattern of more systematic inquiry suggests the most promising American approach to any North Korean nuclear crisis, nothing strictly scientific could ever be said concerning the probabilities of war.
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Scott Huettel, a Duke neurologist, and other researchers showed in 2006, for example, that when making decisions involving ambiguity, people do not use the parts of the brain required for calculations of probabilities and expected values.
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It's easier to prosecute in the civil court, which says you only have to work on the balance of probabilities and be 51 percent sure, rather than the criminal court, where it's proof beyond reasonable doubt.
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Such low probabilities of a rate hike this year suggest either pessimism about better economic data or a possible underestimation of the chance that the Fed would react to that better data with a hike this year.
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One crucial difference between baseball bullpen management and central banking: The case for using closers well before the end of a game is based on probabilities that say such tactics pay off over a 162-game season.
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For that to happen, we all need enough "feel" for the key ideas of science, and enough numeracy to assess hazards, probabilities and risks, so as not to be bamboozled by experts or credulous of populist sloganising.
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Purely based on the historical probabilities, a market at a new high and up more than 17% not quite halfway through the year are reasons to side with the bulls, but also to keep expectations in check.
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It will happen through the use of machine learning algorithms that absorb a large volume of data, recognize patterns and apply statistical probabilities to choose the course of action most likely to result in a successful outcome.
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In a world of such slim probabilities, life expectancy for a fortunate few can reach upwards of 30,000 years or longer (in one of the simulations we ran, the 100th death didn't occur until after 45,641 years).
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To figure it out, Google says that "SyntaxNet applies neural networks to the ambiguity problem" and then uses "Beam Search" to apply probabilities to multiple possible meanings at the same time before landing on the correct meaning.
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Powered by a combination of polling and forecasts from more than 100,000 users, the live probabilities generated by Pivit now have the brash billionaire at 63% to win the GOP nod -- down from 78% before polls opened.
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Across asset classes, large-cap US stocks and BBB-rated credit spreads are two risky markets where investors are still pricing in low probabilities of a recession — and where he warns they might be caught off-guard.
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Finally, it uses those probabilities to simulate every hole left to play in the event 10,1563 times for each golfer, counting the number of simulations won by each participant in order to derive their chances of victory.
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"The yield curve inversion is clearly driving a lot of economic models to forecast higher probabilities of recession and that I think does, in the Fed's mind at least, justify the move towards easier policy," said Heppenstall.
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Finally, it uses those probabilities to simulate every hole left to play in the event 10,000 times for each golfer, counting the number of simulations won by each participant in order to derive their chances of victory.
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Machine learning is the sophisticated method of computing probabilities in large data sets, and it underlies virtually all the extraordinary A.I. advances of recent years, including those in navigation, image recognition, search, game playing, and autonomous vehicles.
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"The best scientific info we have now is that the probabilities of these intense hurricanes -- from the point of view of both wind and water -- are going up in many places because of global warming," Emanuel said.
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Our full bull case / moderate bull case / full bear base probabilities improve to 10/55/35 from prior 5/55/40, in order to reflect Tesla's recently improved FCF generation and the uptick in auto gross margin.
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Yes, this was largely the messy, mechanical repositioning of systematic investment vehicles that had overdone the "risk-off" trade and had to scramble to unwind it, and not so much the studied reassessment of the economic probabilities.
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Using statistics and probabilities to help bolster fingerprint results and signal the weight of the evidence isn't a new idea, but this is the first time a tool has actually been put in the hands of fingerprint examiners.
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Children of the same race and gender born to families with similar incomes but living in different neighborhoods see very different probabilities of finishing high school, staying out of jail and enjoying a high income as an adult.
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"As the probabilities have become more one-sided, the correlation of the peso has been increasing," said Zamora, adding that earlier on in the year, investors had hedges on the peso, which are now starting to come off.
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Neil Jones, head of European hedge fund sales at Mizuho, said the sterling plunge had been in response to investors raising hard Brexit probabilities to 0.7%-40% but he too sees the actual probability at 50% or more.
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Gracenote has yet to turn the Elo ratings into medal probabilities for individual events, but betting markets suggest that the German has roughly a 50% chance of beating the field in each of her two remaining individual races.
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Neil Jones, head of European hedge fund sales at Mizuho, said the sterling plunge had been in response to investors raising hard Brexit probabilities to 35%-23% but he too sees the actual probability at 50% or more.
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Although last year's model did update its projected hole-outcome probabilities (such as birdies and bogeys) for each player in each simulation based on their previous performance, it otherwise treated every player-hole as a completely independent event.
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Without human supervision, the neural net learned about the dynamics of language, both the rule-driven stuff and the edge cases, by analyzing and computing the statistical probabilities of all the possible word combinations in this training data.
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That is, it's too easy to waive user license agreement rights when someone first signs up for a service; the effects are imaginary at that point, and it's unreasonable for an average person to forecast probabilities of misuse.
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The probability of a substantial false alarm coming in the midst of a major crisis may be low, but the potential consequences are the destruction of most of human civilization, so action to reduce even low probabilities is justified.
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Taking these factors into account, the researcher's AI simulated the soccer tournament 100,000 times, calculating each team's probabilities to pass to advance past the group stage, and then pass each following round all the way up to the final.
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Guessing at probabilitiesThe election-forecast models that assigned overwhelming probabilities to a victory for Mrs Clinton have received some criticism, and deservedly so (at The Economist we resisted the temptation to build our own forecasting model this election cycle).
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People are then deported on the basis of these non-convictions, because the Home Office successfully argues that on the "balance of probabilities" the individual is of bad character, and their deportation would be conducive to the public good.
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Steve Avanessian, the agency's vice president for client relations, said an internal matrix, updated daily, accounted for teams' postseason probabilities and potential playoff opponents, allowing BDA to determine how many items of a particular color it needs to provide.
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Then came the Mexico news — which pushed markets further in the direction they were leaning: raising probabilities of recession, aggressively pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut or two in coming months and curtailing risky bets in credit and equities.
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Arkani-Hamed speculates that the polyhedron is related to, or might even encompass, the "amplituhedron," a geometric object that he and a collaborator discovered in 2013 that encodes the probabilities of different particle collision outcomes—specific examples of correlation functions.
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Even today, says Dr Jantz, an experienced forensic anthropologist making a sex assessment on the basis of this angle alone will not get it right all of the time—and is obliged to express his conclusion in terms of probabilities.
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" ED AL-HUSSAINY, SENIOR RATES AND CURRENCY ANALYST, COLUMBIA THREADNEEDLE INVESTMENTS, MINNEAPOLIS "Assets are reacting overnight to shifting probabilities around the consensus view that Democrats will take the House; the probability of a Republicans losing their Senate majority remains trivial.
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According to quantum mechanics, the probabilities of all possible states of particles in the universe must respect "unitarity," evolving in such a way that the universe's past states can in principle always be uniquely determined by rewinding from its present state.
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To increase conviction rates, the White House is pressuring universities—by naming them publicly, fining them or threatening to withhold funds—to deal with more cases on campus, where rape has to be proved just on the balance of probabilities.
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The CME Group's FedWatch tool, which uses futures contracts to devise probabilities for rate hikes at each Federal Open Market Committee meeting, now assigns a better than even — 53 percent — chance that a hike could come as soon as November.
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To model self-replication, the algorithm copied the expectation value (the average of the probabilities of all possible measurements) of the genotype to a new qubit through entanglement, a process that links qubits so that information is instantaneously exchanged between them.
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"But as often occurs in science, it's probably not the last word," Lehner said, noting that climate researchers don't fully understand longer term La Niña fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean and the probabilities of another megadrought — or cluster of megadroughts — occurring.
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"But the key thing to understand is that data science is a tool that is not necessarily going to give you answers, but probabilities," said Erik Brynjolfsson, a professor at the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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In recent months, however, the prosecution has suggested that it may use low-template DNA analysis to tie Mr. Hillary to Garrett's murder, utilizing sophisticated algorithms to determine statistical probabilities by analyzing genetic data that older methods could not interpret.
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The New York Times offers a state-by-state probabilities chart that provides a projected outcome for each state as determined by each of several media outlets, including The Times itself as well as FiveThirtyEight and Daily Kos, among others.
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First, understanding the risks and costs of hurricanes requires specific expertise, and most mayors are not in their role long enough to develop that expertise, nor were they likely elected based on their ability to understand probabilities and weather patterns.
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The center lists 659 asteroids that have some probability of striking the planet, "but none pose a significant threat over the next century, either because the probabilities are extraordinarily small, or the asteroids themselves are extremely small," Mr. Chodas said.
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Investors are a bit fearful to jump back into high-yielding EM currencies even as Fed rate-cut probabilities rise, as fresh news regarding the spread of the virus may come in and upset equities at any point, ING's Turner said.
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We assigned probabilities to each event, so you should judge us not only on whether we get the direction of the prediction right, but also on whether we bungle ones we were confident would go the other way, for instance.
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"The Birmingham National Weather Service's Sunday morning tweet spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time," the parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, said in the statement.
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"The Birmingham National Weather Service's Sunday morning tweet spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time," the parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, said in the statement.
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GB: Sellers ultimately determine the pricing and sale strategy [but we] provide sellers with several data-driven tools to help them set a listing price, including comparable sales values, probabilities of sale at various prices and estimates of days-to-sell.
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That was what much of the work of journalism had become: a process of weighing probabilities against the personal stakes of sources in order to form a picture of reality based on beliefs — perhaps to a greater extent than on facts.
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Adán Cabello The general idea for all approaches in quantum reconstruction, then, is to start by listing the probabilities that a user of the theory assigns to each of the possible outcomes of all the measurements the user can perform on a system.
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"We believe that the worst risks to the financial markets ... have the lowest probabilities of occurring and advise investors not to allow the candidates' broad unpopularity to drive fear of worse financial market impacts than are likely," the firm said in a report.
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"To some extent, we're trying to handicap which way policy goes, trying to handicap which way markets will respond, in which case … we're making a whole series of conditional probabilities based on what we think may happen or may not happen," he said.
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Qubits can be made in different ways, but the rule is that two qubits can be both in state A, both in state B, one in state A and one in state B, or vice versa, so there are four probabilities in total.
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You'll forgive us if we indulge in a little wishful thinking and rumormongering, but in a weary world edging toward winter, dreams are often more important than probabilities, hopes more significant than facts, and sweet speculation can free the troubled mind to soar.
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Informed by a combination of polling and forecasts from more than 100,000 users, the live probabilities generated by Pivit have the Florida senator's odds of prevailing in the GOP race at 943% -- down from a high point of 56% on February 5.
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" JASON WARE, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, ALBION FINANCIAL GROUP, SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH: "It's funny because we are seeing the probabilities of another rate cut in the futures market going up because we have the potential for another round of tariffs on September 1.
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If you go strictly by those probabilities, along with the fact that Trump almost has to win Florida and that Clinton has at least a shot of winning Georgia or Arizona, an observer would have a greater sense that she will win.
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" The probabilities of a recession in the last half of 2019 and early 2020 are increasing in odds and maybe quite dramatically, Kass added, saying: "The bottom line is that our president is going to make market volatility and economic uncertainty great again.
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But the flu vaccine's shortfalls are a result of a complicated mix of factors: Flu vaccine formulation is a game of probabilities, reliant on educated guesses made six to 12 months in advance of the season about which direction the virus will drift.
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Rober and his friends – including a professional baseball player – dismantle every carnival game they can find, assessing the probabilities of winning and point out that the only ones you could feasibly win are the throwing games and even those are stacked against you.
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Models that emit probabilities are more effective than true/false alerts and allow the use of math to combine multiple pieces of evidence across different data sets to define the likelihood of a user account having been compromised or engaged in illicit activities.
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" After days of controversy, NOAA — which is part of the Commerce Department — on Friday released an unsigned statement Friday that suggested the Birmingham tweet "spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time.
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That's why the DoD and all infrastructure planners need to integrate the range of probabilities associated with the impacts of climate change into all of its domestic infrastructure planning and risk assessments in order to increase resilience both at home and abroad.
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"Market probabilities of a rate cut at the October meeting is 85% to 90%, and about 50% for the following meeting, and most of that increase is due to the weak corporate data," Guy LeBas, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Janney, told me.
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" The anonymous letter even scolded the Birmingham, Alabama National Weather Service for clapping back at Trump on Twitter on September 1st, saying that the tweet "spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time.
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It requires respondents to have a strong understanding of probabilities, and it's influenced by social desirability bias: respondents might feel they can't say they would prefer to double consumption for some number of people rather than save a life, because it feels callous.
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You can learn at least some strong probabilities about your health and your genetic traits, including rather peculiar ones—whether you have the genes that make cilantro taste like soap, for instance, or render you bunion-prone, or likely to sport a unibrow.
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Winning, or maximizing one's winning potential, is a matter of analyzing a card game as a succession of states, wherein each state offers players probabilities of certain events happening or not happening that can then be maximized in the interests of winning.
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" The probabilities of a recession in the last half of 2019 and early 2020 are increasing in odds and maybe quite dramatically, Kass added, saying: "The bottom line is that our president is going to make market volatility and economic uncertainty great again.
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Competition Rule 144.3(d) bans 'the use of any mechanical aid, unless the athlete can establish on the balance of probabilities that the use of such an aid would not provide him with an overall competitive advantage over an athlete not using such aid.
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The first qubit equaling zero and the second equaling one, |01>, is a D, |10> is an E, and |11> is an F. The programmer can choose the first note, then define probabilities to determine the odds for getting each of the next notes.
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For instance, when quantum information theorists conjure up abstract quantum machines and see if they can get work out of them, they sometimes sidestep the question of how, exactly, you extract work from a quantum system, given that measuring it destroys its simultaneous quantum probabilities.
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"After a couple of days where investors focused solely on the chances of recession in the U.S. and concerns about slower growth, today is not surprisingly a day where they rethink those probabilities," said Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones in St. Louis.
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Over the course of the weekend, I heard instructors invoke both hyperbolic discounting (a mathematical model of how people undervalue long-term rewards) and prospect theory (developed by the behavioral economists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky to capture how people inaccurately weigh risky probabilities).
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For each non-redistricting election cycle since 1972, we fit a version of the model using all other years except the one in question, and produced win probabilities for the withheld cycle for each district and for control of the House as a whole.
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"As always, it is important to emphasize that the Ashcroft Model deals with probabilities not predictions, meaning the actual result may well fall either side of these estimates," Ashcroft said, adding that model results were sensitive to assumptions about which groups of voters turned out.
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How exactly different types of cell mutations lead to cancer is less clear, and the team from Los Alamos are hoping next to drill down further into this line of research and find out the probabilities that any individual DNA mutation will turn into cancer.
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While pollsters and financial markets expect the ruling Conservative Party to win the December vote, market watchers say those probabilities can shift rapidly as the election date approaches as evident during the 2017 general elections when the opposition Labour Party nearly doubled its support.
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The equation multiplies a string of probabilities -- such as the fraction of stars with planets, the fractions of planets that are habitable, and the percentage of times intelligent life forms -- to give an estimate of the likelihood that we are not alone in the universe.
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One early effort—"Program for Computing Probabilities of Fallout From a Large-Scale Thermonuclear Attack"—took into account explosive yield, burst points, time of detonation, mean wind velocity, and the like to predict where the fallout would land in the case of an attack.
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A measure from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which translates fluctuations in the yield curve into recession probabilities, shows that the chances of a recession beginning in the next year have fallen to about one in four, from one in three in August.
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If I assess all of the decisions I could have made and all the universes I could have been living in, and set the appropriate probabilities, which decision on average has the best outcome — with 'best' up for me to define as I see fit?
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Dunn, generalizing an inequality posed three years earlier, conjectured the following: The probability that both Gaussian random variables will simultaneously fall inside the rectangular region is always greater than or equal to the product of the individual probabilities of each variable falling in its own specified range.
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Things get pretty messy at this point, but just understand that we're taking the current traffic load, adding an unknown additional load that might enter the network at any time, and then coming up with probabilities of network breakdown at each of the network's nodes or intersections.
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"They say not to count our chickens before they're hatched, but that's exactly what these results allow us to do based on probabilities that each egg (candidate) will hatch into a chick (bona fide planet)," Batalha, a co-author of the paper, said in a statement.
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To record that, I would have to have found that, on the balance of probabilities, Mr. Flint formed the idea and took a deliberate action knowing it would result in his death … Having regard to all the circumstances I don't find that there's enough evidence for that.
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Now people can get the ease of use of an algorithm crunching numbers to figure out the probabilities of when someone with a certain profile and lifestyle that could be a match to theirs determine their eligibility for a policy and the rates of that policy.
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"The market's perception of Brexit probabilities may have been reduced in the last 24 hours but this is going to have a limited impact on currency markets unless it is followed through by polls released in the coming days," Morgan Stanley currency of strategy Hans Redeker said.
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The entire world has crumbled around you, and you tried something, ANYTHING, to recover, and, whoops, your brother dunked on you, Boogie got you again, Giannis turned you into jam, but at least you did SOMETHING to slide the probabilities back, made a stand against the inevitable.
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Before the report, traders saw about an 85 percent chance of a December rate hike and just over a 60 percent chance of further rate hike in June; those probabilities were little changed immediately after the Fed released its rate decision after a two-day meeting.
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Using the Monmouth poll and applying these probabilities to the other candidates, you end up with Warren at about a 20% chance to win Iowa; Harris, Sanders and Buttigieg with about a 10% chance each; and the other 15% chance scattered among the rest of the candidates.
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With machine learning and AI, as that satellite is maneuvering or the anti-satellite missile is being launched, algorithms and computing power can quickly go through all of the different possibilities and probabilities and provide you [information] in near real time on what things are at risk.
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But a machine that can learn through both methods would require nearly opposite kinds of systems: one that can operate deductively, by following hard-coded procedures; and one that can work inductively, by recognizing patterns in the data and computing the statistical probabilities of when they occur.
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Here is where they put the probability as of Sunday of each candidate winning the election: Clinton - 81 percentTrump - 20 percent Clinton - 71 percentTrump - 28 percent Clinton - 83 percentTrump - 18 percent Clinton - 83 percentTrump - 22 percent Clinton - 83 percentTrump - 18 percent Probabilities were as of roughly 6:30 p.m.
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We know the difference between probabilities and prophesy, which is why every time a climate scientist or politician or activist speaks with certainty about what the world will be facing in 10, 50 or 100 years because of climate change, it makes it harder to take them seriously.
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Because the Google figures are search totals rather than probabilities, we first divided search traffic for each candidate's full name in the state in question on the day before each election by the total searches for the names of candidates of the same party, yielding a "search share".
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For gubernatorial and senatorial races, there is generally some polling, so we use polling averages and fundamentals like partisan lean, incumbency, and national dynamics to estimate vote shares for individual candidates, and again run several thousand simulations to estimate probabilities for individual candidates and for the overall Senate.
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"The market's perception of Brexit probabilities may have been reduced in the last 24 hours but this is going to have a limited impact on currency markets unless it is followed through by polls released in the coming days," said Hans Redeker, Morgan Stanley's head of currency strategy.
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"After reported pressure from the Trump administration to get officials to back up the president, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration later defended the president, noting that the NWS Birmingham tweet "spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time.
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Before the Fed's latest policy statement, traders saw about an 85 percent chance of a December rate hike and just over a 60 percent chance of further rate hike in June ; those probabilities were little changed immediately after the Fed released its rate decision after a two-day meeting.
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"The IAAF competition rules state clearly that mechanical assistance to athletes is not allowed during athletics competitions, unless the athlete can establish on the balance of probabilities that the use of an aid would not provide him with an overall competitive advantage," the IAAF told Reuters in July.
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Royen represented the amount of correlation between variables in his generalized GCI by a factor we might call C, and he defined a new function whose value depends on C. When C = 0 (corresponding to independent variables like weight and eye color), the function equals the product of the separate probabilities.
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The path it takes is random in a way, but if you drop 216,210 balls from the exact same position into the exact same maze, there will be patterns in where they come out at the bottom — a spread of probabilities, perhaps more at the center and less at the edges.
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Sometime around the beginning of the last century, scientists discovered that at the smallest levels of existence, the vibrations of molecules and electrons and whatnot that compose the atoms which in turn compose the matter we see and touch and are made of, were, more or less, ruled by weighted probabilities.
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"The biggest thing was you got confirmation that polling can actually be somewhat accurate, so you can actually make a prediction on probabilities of events and you can allocate assets and you don't get this big surprise," said Thomas Hainlin, global investment strategist at Ascent Private Capital Management in Minneapolis.
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The CME's FedWatch tool, which tracks fed funds futures contracts and assigns probabilities for hikes at each of the Federal Open Market Committee meetings, shows a 98.8 percent chance that the Fed in July will hold the line on its current target range of 0.25 to 0.5 percent for the overnight rate.
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After obtaining these probabilities, the final step was to convert both the Intrade and Google-derived figures into log odds and feed them into a logistic regression, a method of estimating the impact of multiple variables on one binary variable, which is always either zero (losing an election) or one (winning it).
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