Train operating companies can claim compensation if they undershoot revenue forecasts.
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It needed to hear more about this inflation undershoot, the framework change.
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Trouble is, even though economic growth is strong, inflation continues to undershoot.
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This time there are plenty of reasons to expect a big undershoot.
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The BOJ is increasingly at a loss to explain why consumer prices consistently undershoot.
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They also remain steadfast in their determination to undershoot the target they've already got.
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Of course, as inventories can often undershoot final sales, they can overshoot as well.
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But I still feel like Bungie continues to undershoot and then overcorrect in cyclical fashion.
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Judging by the past predictions, USDA has had a tendency to undershoot soybean shipments (reut.rs/22017gGtmjA).
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With U.S. inflation data due shortly, traders are prepared to sell dollars if the data undershoot forecasts.
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Most of the rich world is enjoying a jobs boom even as central banks undershoot inflation targets.
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ECB President Mario Draghi on Tuesday raised the prospect of further monetary stimulus to end the persistent undershoot.
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However, inflation has undershoot Riksbank expectations for two months in a row despite the weakening of the crown.
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But if inflation continues to undershoot it is hard to see the Fed following through on a hike.
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The Fed is likely to undershoot its target of 2 percent annual inflation for the sixth consecutive year.
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In reality, the central bank continues to undershoot its 2% inflation goal some nine years into the recovery.
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The latest U.S. employment and consumer confidence figures were among a growing raft of economic indicators to undershoot expectations.
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If they overshoot, U.S. consumers will pay more for imports; if they undershoot, U.S. export prices won't fall much.
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About 14 percent saw pay rises exceeding last year, while 10 percent said they would undershoot last year's increase.
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Inflation, which Powell says is low in part because of temporary factors, continues to undershoot the Fed's 2% target.
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Continuing to undershoot the goal would cast more doubt on the central bank's commitment to it than modest overshoots would.
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Given that August payrolls have a tendency to undershoot expectations, the strong ADP report is unlikely to change economists' forecasts.
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Expectations are for a 3 percent rise in prices for December according to Reuters forecasts; any undershoot would kick sterling lower.
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"Travelers may undershoot their vacation budgets for a variety of reasons," said Keri Danielski, head of communications for Intuit Turbo & Mint.
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Recent public finance outturns point to an undershoot in the government deficit for this year compared with the last review's projections.
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Expectations are for a 3 percent rise in prices for December according to Reuters forecasts and any undershoot would kick sterling lower.
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Economists say inflation is also on course to undershoot the central bank's targets of 4.00% and 3.75% for the next two years, respectively.
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Inflation continues to undershoot the Fed's 2-percent target, even as growth has outperformed and the unemployment rate has remained below 4 percent.
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Until then, markets are likely to do what they often do – overshoot and undershoot, but not by too much or for too long.
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"Rural areas' food inflation rate tends to overshoot and undershoot other areas' during times of rampant inflation and disinflation respectively," Van Deventer said.
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"We do not let inflation undershoot our objective for longer than is avoidable given the nature of the shocks we face," Draghi said.
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This could fix the perceived flaw in current policy that it makes it too easy to let inflation undershoot the target for long periods.
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"Travelers may undershoot their vacation budgets for a variety of reasons," Keri Danielski, head of communications for Intuit Turbo & Mint, told CNBC in January.
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Evans and others are concerned that if they continue to undershoot, they will lose credibility and their statements and policies will become less effective.
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Euro zone inflation rose to 1.5 percent in August but is expected to undershoot the ECB's target of almost 2 percent for years to come.
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The ECB targets inflation at just below 2 percent and its projections suggest it will undershoot this objective at least through 2020, underpinning its caution.
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In May, the BoE forecast inflation would stay below 1 percent until almost the end of the year and would undershoot its target until 2018.
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"We still challenge this and think the undershoot is more persistent," he said, adding that another 25 basis point rate cut was likely in December.
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But some policymakers are wary of signalling the programme's end as inflation will undershoot the ECB's target of almost 2 percent year years to come.
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Annual inflation is running at 2.54%, well below the bank's 2019 target of 4.25%, and is widely expected to undershoot next year's target of 4.00%.
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Still, even if the forecasts materialized, the first-quarter production would undershoot the previous three months, officials said, describing the rebound as "not strong enough".
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While the U.S. added 28503,22019 jobs in March, roughly 70,000 fewer than expected, the undershoot is due in part to rough winter weather suppressing construction.
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They must reconcile the bloc's best growth run in a decade with an inflation rate that is projected to undershoot the ECB's target for years more.
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A combination of smelter closures and a crackdown on polluting industry in China has caused supply to undershoot expectations, supporting prices, said BMO analyst Kash Kamal.
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Members also debated whether the Fed should allow the unemployment rate, currently at 4.3 percent, to undershoot what the Fed considers full employment, or 4.7 percent.
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And let's say that when the Fed starts to fear it'll undershoot its NGDP or inflation target, interest rates are already at or near zero percent.
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Candidates who underperform their polls in Iowa see their New Hampshire poll number deflate by 0.5 points for every point they undershoot their New Hampshire polls.
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Interest rates below this level should only be justified - according to the rule - by negative output gaps and/or undershoot of inflation relative to the target.
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Speaking in Brussels early on Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi said the ECB does not let inflation undershoot the central bank's objective for longer than is avoidable.
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Voting members of the Fed's rate-setting committee saw equal risks the economy would overshoot or undershoot their forecasts for continued growth and a tightening labor market.
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These may not affect dollar volume figures (fledgling companies don't raise all that much money), but reported deal volumes will undershoot reality for up to two years.
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In addition, if it looks like revenues are going to undershoot forecasts and imperil the primary budget balance target, the government must suspend or cut discretionary spending.
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Another month of weaker-than-expected inflation, even if the undershoot is a tenth of a percentage point, and markets' rate hike expectations will surely diminish further.
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In an attempt to bolster its credibility, the bank has tweaked its language to emphasise that it does not want to undershoot the target of 2% consistently.
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Ermotti seems determined not to undershoot again: his new ambition for the 275 to 2812 period is for a return on CET20223 capital between 22022% and 22011%.
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The weakening of the economy is taking its toll on the state's already dire finances, causing tax revenue to undershoot official estimates after seven years of growth.
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The Nikkei business daily earlier on Wednesday reported that tax revenue this fiscal year would undershoot the government's initial estimate by 2.3 trillion to 2.5 trillion yen.
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"We don't view the data as strong evidence that payrolls will undershoot expectations on Friday," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in New York.
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"We do not let inflation undershoot our objective for longer than is avoidable given the nature of the shocks we face," Mario Draghi told the Brussels Economic Forum.
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But inflation, the ECB's singular mandate, has remained weak and will undershoot the bank's nearly 2 percent target for years to come, a threat to the bank's credibility.
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With almost half of the financial year complete, Hammond looks on track to undershoot the 58 billion pound borrowing target for 2017/173 set by Britain's official budget forecaster.
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The ECB last week stuck to its ultra-easy policy stance as euro zone inflation continues to undershoot its target but acknowledged the vigor of the euro zone economy.
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Interestingly, it appears the Fed is slowing coming to terms with the fact that the "inflation undershoot" relative the 2-percent target is more "persistent" than "transient" in nature.
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Inflation, however, is still set to undershoot its target of just below 2 percent at least through 2018, suggesting that the scheme has not worked as well as hoped.
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They note that the Fed is about to undershoot its 2 percent inflation target for the seventh consecutive year, suggesting there is no need to step on the brakes.
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Fed chairman Jerome Powell has spoken a lot about the risk of inflation overshooting its 2% target, but only recently has he discussed the risk of a persistent undershoot.
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They will have to reconcile the bloc's best growth run in a decade with an inflation rate expected to undershoot the bank's target of almost 2 percent for years.
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Don't deliberately undershoot your goals; just be realistic about the results you can deliver so that you're certain to create expectations that you will blow out of the water.
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However, like most emerging market central banks, Russia is likely to lower interest rates this year faster than previously thought as economic growth is on track to undershoot official forecasts.
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If the Fed were able to make this pledge credible, it would reverse the current bad equilibrium in which business pessimism causes the economy to consistently undershoot the Fed's projections.
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On Twitter, Kashkari said he is concerned by the flattening of the yield curve, which some believe reflects concern that inflation will continue to undershoot the Fed's 2-percent target.
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It has to reconcile rapid economic growth and job creation with anaemic wage growth and an inflation rate that will undershoot its nearly 2 percent target into the next decade.
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Its policymakers are debating whether to end bond buying this year, assuming rapid growth will eventually raise inflation, even if price growth will undershoot its target for years to come.
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The big Brazilian round was the latest offshore auction this year to undershoot expectations, hurt by competition from shale oil and other unconventional sources as well as lower demand forecasts.
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Annual inflation is just 2.54%, well below the central bank's target for this year of 4.25%, and private sector forecasts suggest it will easily undershoot next year's target of 4.00%.
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Russia is promising the lion's share of the non-OPEC cuts — 300,000 barrels a day — but there are already signs the world's top oil producer is giving itself room to undershoot.
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A forecast of 20% growth in 2020, however, put it on course to undershoot analysts' average estimate of C$1.05 billion by more than C$403 million, according to Reuters calculations.
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This move has caused a dip in overall market demand in North America and Whirlpool this week forecast that rising costs would see its 2019 adjusted profit and revenue undershoot consensus.
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A forecast of 20% growth in 2020, however, put it on course to undershoot analysts' average estimate of C$1.05 billion by more than C$50 million, according to Reuters calculations.
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Yet it felt the central bank could do more by providing "stronger guidance" to markets on what policy changes might be considered should inflation continue to undershoot its 2 percent target.
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But wages grew at their slowest annual pace in more than 1-1/25.9 years in a sign that inflation probably will continue to undershoot the Federal Reserve's 24.8-percent target.
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The annual rate of inflation fell to 3.37% in June from 4.66% in May, suggesting inflation has peaked and is on track to undershoot the central bank's official target this year.
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Of those 28 will either undershoot their inflation targets in 2019 or have inflation in the bottom half of their target range, according to the fund's most recent round of forecasts.
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Projections of the growth in the number of households have been cut back, so that from now on the government expects demand to undershoot construction, for the first time in years.
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I doubt that in such a mirror-image world many of today's doves would call for the Fed to undershoot in order to "make up" for the period of above-target inflation.
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In its nearly two-hour runtime, The Last Summer does not create a single passable, adolescent character, managing to somehow both overshoot and undershoot the maturity of every teen in their story.
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STOCKHOLM, March 16 (Reuters) - Swedish banks will be allowed to temporary undershoot the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) for individual currencies and for their total currency exposure, the financial watchdog said on Monday.
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Because the Fed targets an index that tends to undershoot the CPI by about a third of a percentage point, this implies missing the central bank's 2% target by a long way.
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The ECB targets inflation at close to but below 2 percent and recently emphasized this was a symmetric target, so an overshoot would be treated with the same vigour as an undershoot.
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In official comments published on Saturday, after leaking on Thursday, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih noted "the large short positioning in the market" which has "caused the oil price to undershoot".
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Analysts expect 2017 growth will significantly undershoot the central bank's forecast of between 4.5 percent and 5 percent, although Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has predicted up to 5 percent growth for the year.
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With inflation continuing to undershoot its 2000 percent target even as the labor market nears full employment, the U.S. central bank is, however, likely to hold off raising interest rates again until December.
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The index is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, and the latest reading indicates the central bank is likely to undershoot its target of 2 percent annual inflation for the seventh straight year.
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But prices have also been slow to respond and inflation is due to undershoot the ECB's target for years to come, suggesting that stimulus will have to continue, even if in more conventional form.
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Economic growth is at its fastest since early 2011 and unemployment recently hit an eight-year low, but inflation looks set to undershoot the ECB's target - just under 2 percent - at least through 2019.
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After markets closed in America, Apple warned that a sharp slowdown in China's economy, and weak sales in other emerging markets, meant revenues in the fourth quarter would undershoot expectations by up to 219%.
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SX1.73P fell as much as 1.1 percent, as the market followed a downturn in Asian iPhone suppliers after brokers cut forecasts for iPhone X shipments, saying sales of the new model may undershoot expectations.
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Once that threshold is passed, Tesla owners will begin being charged an incremental fee depending on usage, but one that will still undershoot the price of filling up a fuel-based car's gas tank.
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"It is expected that Huawei's growth may slow, but only slightly," Ren told Japanese media in his first official comments after the U.S. restrictions, adding that the company's annual revenue growth may undershoot 20%.
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But Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George, a voting member this year on the Fed's rate-setting committee, described the undershoot as minor, especially given low levels of unemployment in the United States.
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Catarina Midoes and Guntram Wolff of Bruegel, a think-tank, find that since 2010 officials, when drawing up budget plans, have consistently come up with predictions for tax revenues that turn out to undershoot reality.
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MOSCOW (Reuters) - The Russian central bank is likely to lower interest rates this year faster than previously thought as economic growth is on track to undershoot official forecasts, a monthly Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
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The account also showed that the ECB was considering "more strategic" moves if inflation remained low and that it planned to emphasise that an overshoot as well as an undershoot of inflation would be tolerated.
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ZURICH, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Switzerland ran a federal budget surplus of 3.60 billion Swiss francs ($3.7 billion) in 2019 as higher-than-expected revenue and a spending undershoot kept state finances firmly in the green.
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In Helsinki, Olli Rehn said the current formulation was skewed in favour of lower inflation rates while the ECB's target should be symmetric, meaning any undershoot should be taken just as seriously as an overshoot.
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After all, the Fed is encouraged that inflation is finally heading toward its 2% target after a long-standing undershoot, and officials believe the job market is about as good as it's going to get.
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"Right now, people are expecting, for some reason, more rate hikes than inflation even though (Fed Chair Janet) Yellen has explicitly said that the pace of rate hikes will undershoot inflation, " he told CNBC's "Squawk Box ".
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Calls from some analysts for the RBA to ease policy at its May meeting intensified after first-quarter inflation came in below expectations to undershoot the central bank's 2-3 percent target for 13 straight quarters.
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The debate also exposes the dilemma the ECB faces in trying to reconcile robust GDP growth with inflation — which edged up across the euro zone to 1.5 percent in August — expected to undershoot its target for years.
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The ECB kept its ultra-easy policy stance in place as inflation continues to undershoot its target but explicitly acknowledged the vigour of the euro zone economy, now on its best run since the global financial crisis.
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"Clearly the Fed still believes that lower unemployment will eventually translate into a pick-up in inflation, but if inflation continues to undershoot it is hard to see the Fed following through on a hike," he said.
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On Tuesday the central bank caught most analysts off guard by cutting rates across the board and taking its overnight deposit rate into negative territory as inflation was likely to undershoot its 3 percent medium-term target.
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Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) — one metric used to show the fundamental health of the British economy — for 2017/2018 is on track to undershoot the £58.3 billion penciled in for the year by about £7 billion.
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The Fed aims to keep prices rising by 4.133 percent a year; it is on pace to undershoot that goal for the sixth straight year, and Fed officials on Wednesday predicted a seventh consecutive failure in 2018.
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The debate also exposes the dilemma the ECB faces in trying to reconcile robust GDP growth with inflation -- which edged up across the euro zone to 1.5 percent in August -- expected to undershoot its target for years.
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The government expects tax revenues to undershoot its initial forecast of 57.6 trillion yen by around 1.9 trillion yen, which would mark the first downward revision since fiscal year 2009 when the global financial crisis dented tax receipts.
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Nevertheless, a prolonged low-rate environment due to the Bank of Japan's monetary easing could encourage lawmakers to call for more spending as long as nominal interest rates undershoot nominal growth, helping lower the debt-to-GDP ratio.
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Moody's saw risks that tax revenues may undershoot the government's estimates, which could mean spending cuts are needed to meet Lopez Obrador's target of posting a primary budget surplus of 1 percent of gross domestic product this year.
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Kazuo Momma, a former top BOJ bureaucrat who oversaw its international affairs and monetary policy until May, says ditching the timeframe will allow for more realistic inflation forecasting and avoid market speculation of easing whenever prices undershoot the projections.
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Expected inflation calculated from "5 year, 5 year" swaps—which reflect the five-year period starting five years from now, in 2021—is today just 1.6%, suggesting the Fed might undershoot its target for as long as a decade.
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FRANKFURT, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Germany's economic slump will be deeper and longer than earlier thought, and the euro zone is likely to undershoot its 2019 inflation projection, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said on Thursday in an unusually gloomy outlook.
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Because the gas inside is compressible, the giant bubble will expand but overshoot its equilibrium, at which point either the atmosphere or the water will push on the gas to compress it again, making the bubble undershoot its equilibrium.
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"The [RBI] is set to dramatically undershoot its immediate objective of 252.61 percent inflation this quarter, which had fueled expectations for a rate cut today or else in April," said a team of economists at JPMorgan, in a Thursday note.
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The report came on the heels of data on Tuesday showing a key measure of inflation increased 1.6% in the 12 months to June, continuing a pattern of slow gains that have seen it undershoot the Fed's 2% target this year.
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But these snippets often conflict: the dots suggest rates will rise steadily in coming years, keeping inflation consistently below 2%, even though Ms Yellen insists that the Fed is just as willing to overshoot its 2% target as undershoot it.
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The report came on the heels of data on Tuesday showing a key measure of inflation increased 20183% in the 12 months to June, continuing a pattern of slow gains that have seen it undershoot the Fed's 2% target this year.
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The annual rate of inflation fell to 3.37% in June from 4.66% in May, a decline not seen since January 2004 and an indication that inflation has peaked and is on track to undershoot the central bank's official target this year.
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I have been highlighting this low-inflation risk for multiple quarters now, and it seems the paradigm shift that started with Fed staff highlighting an increased likelihood of a "medium term inflation undershoot" and has now filtered to FOMC participants.
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"That undershoot looks like it might be more persistent than we had hoped, and that is not a good thing," Mr. Powell said in a question-and-answer session with Neil Irwin, a senior economic correspondent with The New York Times.
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Consumer prices are likely to undershoot the ECB's target of just under 2 percent for years to come, even though the 19-member currency bloc is enjoying its fifth year of expansion, its best growth run since the global financial crisis.
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If you've been warning about inflation, wrongly, for six or so years, and markets current show no worries about inflation — if anything they're saying that the Fed will undershoot its target — I would expect some diffidence about demanding higher rates yet again.
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Inflation has missed the ECB's 2 percent target for three and a half years and is expect to undershoot until late 2018 at the earliest, raising fears that businesses and households will lose confidence in the bank's ability to meet its mandate.
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"Given the large and long-lasting inflation undershoot, we expect that tolerance will have to end soon and expect some combination of negative policy rates and more aggressive FX intervention," Citi economists led by Ebrahim Rahbari said in a report published on Thursday.
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Euro zone inflation continues to undershoot the ECB's target of 2 percent yet economic data has been on its best run since the global financial crisis and ECB policymakers would have noticed a significant uptick in confidence indicators since the March meeting.
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The BoE said earlier this month that it expected inflation to stay below 22014 percent all year and to undershoot its target until 2018, due to the global slump in oil prices, the effect of past rises in sterling and lacklustre wage growth.
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Adjusted operating profit at the group, which also makes construction equipment, buses and engines, rose to 7.33 billion Swedish crowns ($932 million) versus a year-ago 5.66 billion to undershoot a mean forecast of 7.39 billion seen in a poll of analysts.
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A migration of advisers to its new platform may hit the flow of new money and Quilter may undershoot its 5 percent growth target for net client cash flow (NCCF) on a medium-term basis in the calendar year 2019, it said.
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"Activity in the labour market and the broader economy has been solid, but wages and inflation continue to undershoot their target and they are worried about it feeding into inflation expectations," Su-lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney.
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At first, it may be the case that sellers overshoot their price, making their apples too expensive for the tastes of most buyers, or undershoot it, selling their apples to buyers for less than what they would have been willing to pay.
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"When you're working with financial markets, it's often better to overshoot than undershoot, and better to have a very strong package of policy measures than to tinker "I am skeptical about further expansion of the money supply, (of) lowering the deposit rate.
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A bounce in the euro, which is making euro zone exports less attractive and imports cheaper, has been singled out by investors as a key threat to inflation, set to undershoot the ECB's target of almost 2 percent at least through 2019.
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Yet differences in yield between regular bonds and inflation-indexed ones suggest that they will undershoot the inflation targets they are meant to hit—presumably because their various economies will grow too weakly to generate much upward pressure on wages and prices (see chart 2).
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The account also showed that the ECB was considering "more strategic" moves if inflation remained low and that it planned to emphasise that it would tolerate an overshoot as well as an undershoot of inflation compared to its target of just under 2 percent.
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TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada's central bank is buying time for the economy to exit a soft patch without the aid of lower interest rates, economists say, by forecasting growth so weak it would take a surprise blow to activity for the economy to undershoot its estimates.
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The ECB has cut rates deep into negative territory, given banks free loans and is buying 80 billion euros worth of assets per month, but inflation has hovered near zero and is likely to undershoot its 2 percent target for at least two more years.
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The account also showed that the ECB was considering "more strategic" moves if inflation remained low and that it planned to emphasize that it would tolerate an overshoot as well as an undershoot of inflation compared to its target of just under 2 percent.
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FRANKFURT, April 27 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank left its ultra-easy policy stance firmly in place on Thursday as inflation continues to undershoot its target for a fifth straight year, even as economic growth is on its best run since the global financial crisis.
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"While the US manufacturing ISM did undershoot expectations by quite a margin, it is worth remembering that the Fed hiked last year when the ISM manufacturing was at 48.0 and had been sub-50 for three consecutive months," wrote Sharon Zellner, a senior strategist at ANZ.
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But inflation is proving to be notoriously difficult to boost and will likely undershoot the ECB's target of almost 2 percent for years to come so policymakers gave few if any hints that they are willing to end bond buys this year as markets now expect.
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Rather, aside from a modest undershoot relative to expectations for the headline payroll figure, the data largely confirmed the state of play in the labor market, as the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 percent, and the year-over-year advance in hourly earnings was unchanged at 2.5 percent.
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"While we expect that increased Model 3 production will provide a meaningful injection of liquidity on a number of fronts, Tesla runs the risk of requiring financing over the next few quarters, particularly if Model 3 production continues to undershoot expectations," Nomura Instinet analyst Romit Shah said in a note on the results.
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The euro is set to fall further against the dollar, which boosts European exports and thus helps economic activity in the euro zone; there is more scope for growth to undershoot expectations in the U.S. than the euro zone; and there are unrealistic expectations about monetary policy — despite ongoing pressure from President Donald Trump.
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TOKYO, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Japan's government is expected estimate that tax revenue will undershoot its initial forecast by around 2.3-2.5 trillion yen ($21.17-23.01 billion) in the current fiscal year to March 2020 due to a slowdown in exports caused by the U.S.-China trade war, the Nikkei business daily reported on Tuesday.
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Finance minister Philip Hammond is due to announce an annual budget statement on Wednesday and has signaled he will keep money in reserve in case the economy needs help to get through a slowdown as Britain leaves the EU. "We expect the Chancellor to bank the great majority of any borrowing undershoot rather than spend it, though there may be some small net giveaways," said John Hawksworth at PwC.
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