I don't think there should be any level of overconfidence.
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U.S. investors may be venturing into the land of overconfidence.
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They interview well, and their overconfidence can sway search committees.
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The research indicates men regularly exhibit overconfidence in their ability.
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But men's overconfidence is particularly noticeable in stereotypically male tasks.
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His overconfidence was his undoing, agents have said in interviews.
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And it speaks to an overconfidence in yourself, I guess.
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They may experience the fear of missing out, greed and overconfidence.
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Gomez's key challenges were voter fatigue and the potential for overconfidence.
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Cochran does a fantastic job of homing in on Debbie's overconfidence.
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In both cases overconfidence led to a lamentable lack of planning.
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The consequences of that overconfidence are only now coming into view.
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There can be some overconfidence, especially when it comes to spending.
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When it comes to the French, overconfidence could be a killer.
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This unmerited overconfidence, they found, was interpreted by strangers as competence.
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"It was a bit of overconfidence ahead of Mexico," he said.
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"We are slipping from overconfidence into panic and overreaction," said Gostin.
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But at the same time, we're often unaware of our overconfidence.
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And I happen to think overconfidence is one of Obama's great flaws.
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Their overconfidence in their prognosticating abilities of pending crisis was their weakness.
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"There's also overconfidence and an inability to learn from errors," he says.
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Clinton's campaign warned against overconfidence, in part to keep Democratic voters engaged.
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That leads to driver overconfidence, more accidents, traffic jams, general doom, etc.
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But the authors then examined how overconfidence affected respondents' ideas about vaccination.
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Yet Andreessen Horowitz is hardly the only employer that screens for overconfidence.
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But overconfidence behind the wheel is more than a matter of ego.
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But overconfidence can keep reporters from seeing what's in front of them.
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That was based on massive overconfidence about what would happen after Hussein fell.
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By all accounts, Rubio is a very anxious person; overconfidence isn't his problem.
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Turns out, it's not uncommon for beginners to experience this kind of overconfidence.
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This week Xi Jinping, China's president, fell into the opposite trap, of overconfidence.
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That overconfidence bred complacency, at least among the party establishment and its base.
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No one is accusing the team, known as the Steel Roses, of overconfidence.
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Speaking of weakness, overconfidence, and attraction, let's briefly discuss Rey and Kylo Ren.
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Overconfidence in your all-wheel drive vehicle can lead to spinouts and collisions.
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"BJP loses vote of overconfidence," said the Indian Express newspaper's front page headline.
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Their intellectual overconfidence — and the massive immovable leverage that resulted — worked to their disadvantage.
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And yet, they also can cause overconfidence in the system and complacency among drivers.
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Believing we are able to predict future results more accurately can lead to overconfidence.
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And of course, there was that overconfidence, which, in hindsight, I am ashamed of.
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At this point, the biggest risks to his bull case are trade and overconfidence.
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No one is brimming with overconfidence that all is well and always will be.
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"Index funds give you broad diversification, which is another powerful tool against overconfidence," Robbins notes.
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In the piece, Stephens warned readers of overconfidence in the scientific claims about climate change.
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And it's unhelpful, because the 'medieval' label reinforces our overconfidence in ourselves and our modernity.
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"Self-reflection is one of the things we can do to beat overconfidence," Wright says.
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Although sometimes overwhelmed by "heedlessness, overconfidence and pluck," he is stoutly loyal and never cruel.
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Wars, stock market crashes and many other crises can be blamed on overconfidence, they said.
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Niels Bohr and Yogi Berra both warn us against overconfidence in predictions about the future.
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It's called honest overconfidence because men honestly believe their performance is better than it really is.
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Kennedy's intellectual arrogance and Johnson's cowboy bravado were two versions of the same typical American overconfidence.
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Despite his intelligence, Mojo Jojo's macho overconfidence allows the Powerpuff Girls to defeat him every time.
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Many studies support this idea, showing that testosterone-laden men are prone to overconfidence in trading.
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A government pronouncement that reinforces such overconfidence "perpetuates a dangerous myth," the industry journal editor continued.
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In an attempt to understand the implications of overconfidence, the researchers constructed a mock job interview.
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COMEY: Because I, I don't think ego, stubbornness, overconfidence played a significant role in those decisions.
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It could lead to the kind of overconfidence that threw Schlichter's victims for a terrible loss.
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Such overconfidence occurs when people think they are better informed and better investors than they are.
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Several fatal crashes have been blamed on driver inattention linked to overconfidence in systems like Autopilot.
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Unlike overconfidence, which attempts to hide self-doubt and other pessimistic shortcomings, self-compassion accepts them.
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Anxiety is not good, but neither is overconfidence and an expectation that life should be easy.
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But the high bar required for an impeachment conviction in the Senate shouldn't prompt overconfidence by Republicans.
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It is intended to rein in the groupthink and overconfidence that comes with adopting a particular viewpoint.
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Overconfidence is common elsewhere: nine out of ten teachers in the OECD say they are well prepared.
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Leaders of other cartels have similarly fallen victim to their own overconfidence and failure to lie low.
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But Virginia is another matter, and it offers a warning for Democratic overconfidence outside reliably blue areas.
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"But what they do very consistently show is that social class is tied to overconfidence," she said.
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But he believes overconfidence about a Clinton victory led those officials to unwittingly deliver him the presidency.
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But several crashes — some fatal — have been blamed on driver inattention linked to overconfidence in such systems.
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After conducting thousands of interviews, Caldwell says overconfidence is the interview misstep that's most difficult to overcome.
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But overconfidence may be the single worst quality you can have on Survivor, other than a weak stomach.
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"It was the overconfidence of Monsanto that has destroyed their chances to do business in India," said Mishra.
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Women may improve decision-making partly because they rein in a male penchant for overconfidence and risk-taking.
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That most people do not default to such broad ranges reflects a trait that behavioral economists call overconfidence.
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Studies have revealed significant overconfidence in the judgments of scientists, lawyers, engineers, doctors and those in other professions.
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These are big changes to make, and overconfidence risks undercutting the kind of corporate nimbleness needed to adapt.
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If this market run is ultimately to end in overconfidence and silly economic distortions, we're not there yet.
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It's the American in him that treats everything with a mix of forced coolness, mild sarcasm, and overconfidence.
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Tuca is an irresponsible toucan whose overconfidence and codependence are only just starting to affect her carefree lifestyle.
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But the other piece of the equation is the extreme overconfidence that men have about their own abilities.
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In some Tesla crashes, driver overconfidence in Autopilot's abilities, leading to inattention, appears to have played a role.
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When everyone looks alike, they act alike, and "this type of easy camaraderie can lead to overconfidence," she writes.
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A large number of investors acknowledge that markets are overvalued, while cash levels are still falling, which signals overconfidence.
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Economists Cade Massey and Richard Thaler have found overconfidence to be a perilous factor in the professional football draft.
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In fact, some would even call it "overconfidence" because I've never actually accomplished anything and have very few skills.
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The VIX operates best as a signal of excess complacency when it's confirmed by other sentiment indicators suggesting overconfidence.
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"People have this curve where they go from somewhat unreasonable but plausible distrust to way, way overconfidence," Fairfield said.
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There's little reliable polling about the contest and, given recent political history, Democrats are careful not to display overconfidence.
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I find overconfidence to be a huge turn off, especially when someone lacks the goods to back it up.
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If they have been on a winning streak, they will come to believe they are infallible as investors (overconfidence).
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But what exactly marks the difference between confidence—which everyone needs in order to succeed at anything—and overconfidence?
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This disconnect between actual and perceived financial sophistication, she explains, is evidence of how widespread the overconfidence bias is.
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Researchers found that diversity led to more scrutiny and challenging of decisions and ideas, less overconfidence and better outcomes.
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"I have repeatedly voiced concerns about overconfidence of some #Florida elections officials," Mr. Rubio said on Twitter this week.
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Unimpressed by scientific prizes or riches, Dr. Bengio stressed that complacency and overconfidence were the enemies of scientific progress.
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He is cunning, though not always smart, and like many adolescents he vacillates between wild overconfidence and childlike naïveté.
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But we should all be more aware of when confidence tips into overconfidence, and testosterone supplements could encourage that.
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Inside his Midtown hotel suite, Mr. Bloomberg cautioned against overconfidence, setting expectations for his 92-year-old mother, Charlotte.
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"I think one of the issues with Elon and maybe a lot of smart people is overconfidence," he said.
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Because confidence feels good "we often don't notice when it creeps across the line to overconfidence," Mr. Barker said.
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Rockhold, meanwhile, will have to do some soul-searching, as this loss quite clearly came down to his overconfidence.
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It saddens me greatly to think I made any woman feel that way due to my own immaturity and overconfidence.
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Worse, our world rewards overconfidence, especially in men: one study found that groups tended to choose overconfident narcissists as leaders.
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But that's not always a good thing, according to the report, because it breeds overconfidence among start-ups and investors.
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Therefore, Democrats need to refrain from overconfidence and should take nothing for granted in the face of an unpredictable president.
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Filled with overconfidence, some Democratic senators pledged to oppose the Supreme Court nominee even before he or she was announced.
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That overconfidence may, in turn, lead to strategic errors in targeting states, making ad buys and other key tactical decisions.
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That memory remains especially fresh for Democrats, who are wary of anything that might lead to overconfidence for their party.
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The NYT Dealbook details the sobering letter Seth Klarman recently wrote to investors cautioning against overconfidence in the stock market.
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Another factor that predicted overconfidence is how much a person's skill level at a trait is a matter of opinion.
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Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, thinks the explanation is simple: It's about overconfidence in the Fed.
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The forthcoming implosion of Mr. Ryan's party, and his imminent retreat to Wisconsin, illustrates the danger of hidebound ideological overconfidence.
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Odean and Barber suggest, as well, that overconfidence bias is facilitated by a component condition known as self-attribution bias.
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It would suggest a high degree of conviction, but also overconfidence and a lack of places to put money to work.
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Yet it seems far likelier that the FBI's Trump investigation was a function of arrogance and overconfidence than some partisan plot.
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Happily levitating in my little bubble of overconfidence, I told her that I could start with the patient until she arrived.
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Believing too much of one's own spin can have unintended consequences including overconfidence that clouds our ability to see genuine threats.
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More confounding than the existence of investor overconfidence is its persistence: As markets teach us costly lessons, we should grow humble.
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If, on average, people thought they could outperform more than 50 percent of others at the task, that suggests systematic overconfidence.
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You can see the effect of difficulty on overconfidence clearly in a series of questions the researchers asked about lifting weights.
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Since Russia had advisers with Menelik II in Ethiopia, you'd think they'd be wary of racist overconfidence, but you'd be wrong.
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Yglesias identified a few more reasons for the disparity, including Republicans' ideological flexibility and Democratic complacency and overconfidence in their president.
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The point here is that overconfidence and arrogance can make an arsonist vulnerable to those who set out to stop the crisis.
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Then, through a combination of overconfidence, inattention and occasional clumsiness, Washington contributed to a deep spiral in relations with Moscow, they say.
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Japan's firms have navigated this shift well, displaying none of the overconfidence which bedevilled their gung-ho American misadventure in the 1980s.
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And above all, he lacked the sense, which is deep-rooted in the great religions, that human overconfidence can have unintended consequences.
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I hear "if" more than I hear "when" in discussing the future, and sense a determination to suppress any sign of overconfidence.
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While men's biggest investment mistake is arguably overconfidence — they trade too often, trying to time the market — women have the opposite problem.
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But inside the White House, it was also regarded as a sign of Kudlow's ascendence -- and, according to some aides, his overconfidence.
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Comer plays the beautiful, sometimes frustrated best friend, with the perfect tension between the braggy overconfidence and simmering panic that define adolescence.
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While those cautious disengagements could be frustrating at times, Super Cruise proved a trusty co-pilot that prevents overconfidence from either party.
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Her style, strength without overconfidence, gracious demeanor and years of experience in the intelligence trenches give her credibility unmatched by recent directors.
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And for children over 4, it's clear — and even obvious — that swimming lessons are a good idea, but worries about overconfidence persist.
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It would be akin, Politico's Matthew Nussbaum noted, to the overconfidence that people felt after Donald Trump won the Republican presidential nomination.
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While many people worry that lack of confidence will kill their chances of reaching their goals, overconfidence can be even more detrimental.
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Sandberg's comments on A.I. could seem to express overconfidence in it, or in the least, highlight the tension between man and machine.
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Of course, overconfidence is common when bringing ambitious new technologies to market, and few efforts are more ambitious than fully autonomous cars.
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Is the market telling us that a 20003% economy is just fine for big companies, or are equities nearing a point of overconfidence?
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But as the tale goes on, it becomes clear that du Pont works from a position of extreme insecurity that manifests as overconfidence.
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Nick is motivated by some combination of overconfidence and insecurity, a lot of which What Women Want blames on his Vegas showgirl mother.
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There are clearly the elements of FOMO (fear of missing out) and overconfidence in today's consumers, which means some degree of over-commitment.
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The biggest risk lies in overconfidence on the part of some Tesla drivers — the assumption that Autopilot will save them from any situation.
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Yet overconfidence has caused people to follow their receivers' directions without question, driving into lakes and subways, and getting into sometimes fatal accidents.
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According to one survey of HR experts, confidence is the most appealing personality trait in a candidate — but overconfidence is the biggest turnoff.
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If you try to dodge the question, it signals overconfidence and a lack of self-awareness — basically the opposite of what they want.
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The use of "story points" does little more than foster overconfidence by suggesting an objective quantifiability which, in reality, is merely an illusion.
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Between that, her bloodshot eyes, alcohol scented breath, and overconfidence in her own dancing abilities, she was taken to the Martin County Jail.
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Making things worse was Huang's apparent overconfidence in Autopilot's capabilities, evidenced by his willingness to play a mobile game while operating the car.
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"The A320 has new features which may have inspired some overconfidence in the mind of the Captain," investigators said in their final report.
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If not much changes on the fundamental or liquidity front, that's a net positive in forestalling a self-defeating rise in overconfidence among investors.
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A lot of people correlated his overconfidence and devil-may-care attitude to taking on Diaz as a clear sign that he felt invincible.
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The New York Giants must guard against overconfidence Sunday as they aim for their sixth consecutive victory when they visit the winless Cleveland Browns.
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Overconfidence afflicts both sexes, but men more so; one study found that they overestimated their abilities by 30% and women by 15% on average.
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Giridharadas interprets this alliance as the culmination of the rhetoric of government inefficiency fused with overconfidence in business know-how to solve social issues.
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However, with just a little learning, they develop an overconfidence—even a smugness—that leaves them vulnerable to make more mistakes down the road.
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Our reviewer says its powerful first-person narratives drive home the waste of a war undertaken out of Cold War miscalculations and American overconfidence.
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We are on our guard against poll numbers now; we've learned from the overconfidence of 2016, and that in itself is an important victory.
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Investors should view the historic pullback in stocks and bitcoin as a lesson on the dangers of overconfidence, according to market watcher Paul Hickey.
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Too often the White House unwisely gave unconditional support to the prime minister, leading to reckless overconfidence and unwillingness to compromise with political rivals.
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Dr. Kristin Neff, an associate professor of educational psychology at the University of Texas, suggests a solution to the problem of overconfidence: self-compassion.
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Look out for overconfidence and try to avoid being shallow on Wednesday, when the Sun faces off with the planet of boundless optimism, Jupiter.
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After a lifetime of counseling clients to separate their emotions — such as fear, greed and overconfidence — from their investment decisions, I'm still standing my ground.
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" Ms. Miller added: "Somewhere in between the unearned overconfidence of the young men, and the unwarranted self-censorship of the young women, the truth lies.
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That's not necessarily the way to ensure accuracy — it's called "overconfidence bias" for a reason — but it does make for entertaining quotes and lively panels.
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Avoiding overconfidence -- and selling her message A month ago, when she led Trump by double digits in the polls, Clinton's odds of victory looked good.
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Becker is a hero to many in the field, but, for all the originality of his thinking, to outsiders he can stand for intellectual overconfidence.
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Do we mean to be leading people toward overconfidence in their ingrained perspectives and a disposition to see all of life through one narrow lens?
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The origins of the AI world's overconfidence here lie not in any particular vendetta against radiologists, but in the structural affinities of artificial intelligence itself.
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So you'll have to go back and do some editing later, but overconfidence is much better than self-censorship when it comes to first drafts.
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"We were very cognizant as we were writing and shooting it that the jokes should always be coming from someone's extreme and comical overconfidence," Silverstein said.
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Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics, a research firm, says the divergence in their stockmarkets might reflect overconfidence in America and an evaporation of confidence in China.
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Hyman Minsky, an economist who grew up during the Great Depression, had a theory that financial stability would breed overconfidence, sowing the seeds of future instability.
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In some cases, that sense may be based on overconfidence and insularity—a presumption that the other party's outrages will automatically disqualify it in voters' eyes.
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Spilling out onto the cobblestone streets after closing, I found myself giving out my number with shameless abandon, too flush with a newcomer's overconfidence to care.
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However, Ms. Savino warned Democrats against overconfidence, especially against Mr. Grimm, noting he had "cheerleaders with pompoms" at the start of his campaign in the fall.
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Sumwalt was particularly stunned by Huang's apparent overconfidence in Autopilot, though, especially after learning that he had dealt with Autopilot failing in that same area before.
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But Wiseau had the good luck to work in an era of instant cult classics, where his inept overconfidence could be celebrated for its authenticity and enthusiasm.
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That overconfidence is an example of the Dunning-Kruger effect, which strikes when people are too incompetent within a particular domain to adequately judge their own abilities.
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" Trende told me that "if the election were held tomorrow, Trump would lose," but warned against overconfidence: "I kind of feel like I've seen this movie before.
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The buttery, booming baritone Alex DeSocio (Guglielmo) and the ringing, elegant tenor Spencer Viator (Ferrando) were particularly fine, awkwardly toggling between fresh-faced overconfidence and dumbfounded hurt.
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That is, of course, until his overconfidence starts to backfire and his opening act, Hungry Hunter (the very energetic and funny Chris Redd), starts to outshine him.
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Clinton's September slump may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Democrats because the Clinton campaign had fallen victim to overconfidence, but that has ended.
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And in maybe the most damning example of overconfidence dooming Clinton, her campaign failed to pay enough attention to Michigan because it was certain of victory there.
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He could&aposve checked his overconfidence by seriously considering an opinion or two that would&aposve challenged what he believed— or added nuance at the very least.
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In a political environment increasingly defined by overconfidence, unflinching certitude and uncompromising fidelity to a specific worldview, Gillibrand expressed caution and even remorse when she was uncertain.
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She tells Hyperallergic that the few top-lot flops are less indicative of the market as a whole and more symptomatic of Christie's overconfidence in their pricing.
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The stock market is suffering from excessive optimism and overconfidence, but there are still opportunities if investors know where to look, expert Larry Glazer told CNBC on Friday.
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They have the overconfidence that coincides with youth, plus the digital and internet savvy which convinces newer generations of their own omniscience and the irrelevance of accumulated wisdom.
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One is that our culture promotes and rewards overconfidence and arrogance (think Trump and Theranos, or the advice your career counselor gave you when going into job interviews).
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The turmoil since early February has mostly been an equity-specific affair, as stock prices became dangerously stretched to the upside and so did valuations and investor overconfidence.
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If the previous one was the result of overconfidence in free markets, the next might be triggered—as in Turkey today—by the behavior of an authoritarian leader.
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I wonder aloud today what I have said to so many since August: Why the overconfidence of Democrats at large and the blindness of Republicans during the primary?
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One lapse, one moment of weakness or overconfidence that she can handle it, and everything Rebecca is building up could come crashing down and, quite possibly, bury her.
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Trump's bluster and the pundits' overconfidence, in the end, may just be of a piece with one another: Faced with a camera, what else are they going to say?
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In the new issue of The New Yorker, the writer John Seabrook has a haunting personal essay about his own near-death experience, which he blames partly on overconfidence.
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But that isn't inevitable, and it can also happen that optimism leads to overconfidence or complacency, and thus lack of action/effort, and failure to prepare for negative possibilities.
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On one hand, a breathless and heedless stampeding into these brand-name startups might have generated a speculative froth and overconfidence in easy money - as in the later 1990s.
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As the previous research on individual overconfidence had found, most participants over-estimated their own intelligence by a huge margin — the equivalent of around 30 IQ points on average.
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Richard Thaler, the new Nobel laureate in economics, once told me that this research paper — on human overconfidence — was the one that he most wished had received more attention.
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Dr. Kennedy said she had been encouraged to find that if you show people actual facts about a person, the elevated status that comes with overconfidence often fades away.
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The heightened activity signals a strategic shift for the Clinton team, which had until recently kept a low profile amid fears that the campaign might be accused of overconfidence.
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The flip side to all this is the overconfidence of mediocre men, who don't have to worry about being rude because their rudeness is interpreted as leadership or pizazz.
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Fear, greed and overconfidence are three material factors that often weigh in — even for people who have studied finance and have a good knowledge and background in markets and economics.
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Though the state doesn't provide ethnic breakdowns, party officials and liberal groups are bullish -- almost risking overconfidence -- that Latino, Asian-American and Pacific Islander turnout will soar past 2150 levels.
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The point is really that confidence (or overconfidence, as the case may be) can backfire once you're in office, and that a little self-doubt can go a long way.
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It doesn't matter if it's right or wrong—we are developing something," Sánchez says, "but, when we aren't prone or open to changing that idea, that's when it becomes overconfidence.
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Overconfidence plays out in more subtle ways too; the employee thinks they're clever enough to fire off barbs and doses of negativity without their corrosive patterns being spotted or reprimanded.
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Trump's failure to see beyond the mythology he'd created around his presidency led to a sense of overconfidence when it came to the coronavirus response early on — a deadly miscalculation.
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Huang even has an interview question that gets to the heart of overconfidence: He asks people to rate their knowledge of technology trends on a scale of 1 to 10.
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But it is above all Eukodal that Ohler sees as the key to Hitler's ever more implausible megalomaniac overconfidence and buoyancy in the face of one military setback after another.
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But what the exercise taught me, at least, is that saying "Yes, I can" isn't necessarily a demonstration of overconfidence — it shows the willingness to work to find a solution.
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David Dunning, a psychologist who studies overconfidence, notes that part of good judgment is the ability to recognize the limits of your knowledge — and that achieving this ideal is extremely difficult.
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This overconfidence leads people to invest only in companies with headquarters near them and buy too much of their employer's stock, because they assume they have superior knowledge about the company.
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They found strong correlations: First, overconfidence was highest among people who had less knowledge about autism; it was also highest among those most likely to believe bad science about the disorder.
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And while overconfidence didn't correlate with beliefs about how experts should shape health policy, the more overconfident respondents were more likely to support a role for non-experts in deciding policy.
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For instance, men are often celebrated for displaying overconfidence, aggressiveness and fearless risk-taking, but women who show the same traits are often seen as being a "bulldozer" or pathologically ambitious.
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My heuristic trap was compounded by overconfidence in the F-27's AdvanceTrac system, Ford's version of the anti-lock braking system, or A.B.S., installed on all newer cars and trucks.
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In the post-mortem that followed, some Democrats attributed the lackluster performance, at least in part, to an overconfidence that landslide wins were assured, dampening turnout among would-be Democratic voters.
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"While all concerned seek to avoid an accidental escalation leading to conflict, the risk is being multiplied by misplaced overconfidence, dangerous narratives and rhetoric, and the lack of communication channels," he said.
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The market refused to wait, surging by 22018 percent in the next three weeks in a climax of optimism and overconfidence that would set up the first of two bruising downturns in 280.
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Having lost the middleweight belt just months after he won it—and to a fighter almost everybody thought he should beat—he is likely to be haunted by his apparent overconfidence for some time.
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What makes men worse at investing and trading is overconfidence, she said: Their obsession with beating the market prompts them to make too many trades and rack up fees that eat into their gains.
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Meanwhile, it would be bittersweet justice to watch Cersei's overconfidence in her plan dissolve, when she realizes that the undead were coming to her door all along instead of conveniently taking out her enemies.
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The lack of disclosure may foster overconfidence in SWIFT network security by banks, which routinely approve transfer requests made through the messaging network without additional verification, former SWIFT employees and cyber security experts said.
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Many of our mental biases evolved because they make us cautious or they otherwise protect us from harm, but overconfidence is part of a suite of cognitive traits that serve to propel us forward.
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Trump has denied any quid pro quo, but, reacting in a spasm of overconfidence, he made public a rough transcript of the "perfect" call he made to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which suggests otherwise.
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National leaders became overly reliant on the protections granted by a Democratic presidency under Mr. Obama and a relatively balanced Supreme Court, critics say, leading to overconfidence that their goals were not seriously threatened.
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That can amount to a Panglossian belief that the current policy is best, whereas the current policy may actually be a wobbly structure held together by overconfidence, historical accident and the power of precedent.
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There's the whole progression of it, from the first posturings of overconfidence to anecdotes and jokes that segue to rambling monologues and tirades to those distinctive moments when people start realizing they've had enough.
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If this rebound rally to a fresh record has been largely about burning up excessive anxiety and punishing those underinvested in stocks, then it probably has more room to go before overconfidence becomes a headwind.
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Michael Hartnett, global strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, has been correct in his bullish stance this entire year, which he describes as the emergence of an "Icarus trade" embracing risk and courting overconfidence.
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The only way I could get people to tell me I had problems was by just asking them face-forward, and, given my overconfidence, I can't trust myself to evaluate how well I am doing.
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Mr. Trump also posted a video of himself in the Rose Garden of the White House in which he vacillated between sober warnings and exhortations to flee the storm's path, and reassurance bordering on overconfidence.
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She also cautioned against overconfidence, noting that policy makers gathered at this same conference a decade ago were optimistic about the resilience of the system — which was even then in the process of falling apart.
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Decked out like a GI Joe figure in camouflage pants and a wife beater, he flaunts his massive biceps, is far more virile than the comparatively wimpy King Admetos, is an obnoxious drunk, and oozes overconfidence.
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First, there's his biggest (and best) point, which is that overconfidence helped sink Clinton: Because she thought she was going to win, she didn't feel like it was necessary to get in the mud with Trump.
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From the Dutch tulip mania of the 1600s through the Depression and on, we find that, to summarize the economist Hyman Minsky, stability leads to optimism, which leads to overconfidence and deregulation, which leads to disaster.
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After Noa's overconfidence in his gifts leads to a disaster at his job, he returns to Hawaii and goes on a quest to understand both himself and the ancestral land that is a part of him.
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After Noa's overconfidence in his gifts leads to a disaster at his job, he returns to Hawaii and goes on a quest to understand both himself and the ancestral land that is a part of him.
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"There was overconfidence on the part of policymakers about how much could be done given the constraints they had," said Alvaro Vivanco, a strategist covering Latin American bond and currency markets for the Spanish bank BBVA.
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There has been quite a bit of talk about arrogance and overconfidence in the run-up to today's match, much of it fueled by a British news media looking to take the United States down a peg.
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Eisenkot suggests a combination of overconfidence, based on Iran's success in rescuing Assad's regime from collapse, and underestimation of Israel's determination to stop him, based on the West's history of shrinking in the face of Tehran's provocations.
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Still, "the president's trip was fortuitous for Troy Balderson because there was some lagging enthusiasm among the base — not because of Troy but because of some level of overconfidence," said Mark R. Weaver, a GOP strategist in Ohio.
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Haunted by self-loathing and a sense of his own ugliness — he is repeatedly likened to a boar or rooting hog — he found refuge in a feeling of entitlement, blustering overconfidence, misogyny and a merciless penchant for bullying.
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"Even American media and experts have expressed doubts about the US government's measures, saying its restrictions on China are precisely what the WHO rejects, and that the US is turning from overconfidence to panic and overreaction," Hua said.
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As the botched attempt to offer a childcare service in Brooklyn shows however, even the most well-meaning startups are not immune from the overconfidence and willful delusion that have humbled fast-growing companies from WeWork to Uber.
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It would be risky for Mr. Trump to let overconfidence and bombast, expressed in tweets and public statements, box him into some kind of showdown with the North's ruthless leader, Kim Jong-un, who has displayed similarly macho traits.
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Dr. Fauci assured me that, despite their crosscurrents and an early overconfidence about how easy it would be to control the path of the virus, the president "absolutely" now gets the threat of "the invisible enemy," as Trump calls the virus.
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Dr. Fauci assured me that, despite their crosscurrents and an early overconfidence about how easy it would be to control the path of the virus, the president "absolutely" now gets the threat of "the invisible enemy," as Trump calls the virus.
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Tesla itself has said in the past that overconfidence is a risk for drivers using Autopilot, and is one of the reasons the company constantly reminds owners its cars' manuals to pay close attention while using the driver assistance system.
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Critics have pointed to several factors that led to Toys R Us' downfall: crippling debt load, competition from Amazon, overconfidence, failure to invest in stores and the rise of big-box retailers like Walmart that slashed toy prices to help lure shoppers.
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The tariff escalation could easily be viewed mostly as an excuse for a standard shakeout after a 25% rally since December, just in time to keep complacent investor sentiment and positioning from stretching all the way to extreme and self-undermining overconfidence.
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From the boundless optimism of a cornfed post-war empire, cheerfully jingoistic and fat in the coffers, the nation has awoken to a twenty-first century hangover, a long, jittery ride past militant triumphalism and economic overconfidence into endless war and endless uncertainty.
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The danger for Democrats is overconfidence leading to overshoot, with a nominating process that could appear to voters like comic opera with far too many candidates elbowing and criticizing each other, and trailing candidates saying outrageous things in desperate efforts to get attention.
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A former senior administration official said Soleimani had shown "brazen" overconfidence, especially after the killing of an American contractor at a base in northern Iraq attacked by the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah militia, which prompted U.S. air strikes that killed 25 fighters.
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This often leads to overconfidence, and worse, the Drake equation is very sensitive to bias: if you are hopeful a small nudge upwards in several uncertain estimates will give a hopeful result, and if you are a pessimist you can easily get a low result.
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In a sign of the optimism — some say overconfidence — the recent Democratic victories have inspired, progressive activists in New York have already begun floating primary challenges to the newly elected Democrats in the State Senate, slamming their cautious votes and likening them to Republican collaborators.
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KEN JOHNSON Kate Werble Gallery 83 Vandam StreetSoHo Through next Friday The smarter-than-it-sounds summer group show "Sexting" at Kate Werble Gallery scrutinizes the strange combinations of overconfidence and vulnerability, intimacy and distance, in the supposedly ephemeral art of sexual self-portraiture.
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Diversified portfolios, aligned with risk tolerance and goals, can add tremendous value to avoid common investing pitfalls due to behavioral biases, including overconfidence — taking on riskier bets exceeding our tolerance level — and familiarity bias — avoiding diversifying into capital markets we do not know very well, for example.
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But at a news conference last month on the sidelines of a Communist Party congress, he spoke of the threat of a "Minsky moment"—a concept named after Hyman Minsky, an American who postulated that stable economies end up crashing because of overconfidence that benign conditions will prevail indefinitely.
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Research by professors at the University of California, Davis, and the University of California, Berkeley, found that men tend to be overconfident in areas "culturally perceived to be in the male domain," like the stock market, and that overconfidence leads to trading too much and to higher costs.
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"Overconfidence is the genuine feeling that you are better or know more than others, whereas narcissism is a defense against a quite fragile self-esteem," says Jordan Wright, a professor of counseling psychology at NYU Steinhardt, as well as a clinical psychologist who works closely with millennials in the private practice.
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No team had successfully defended a World Series title since the Yankees won their third in a row in 22.88, and Hinch was looking for reassurance that his players would not succumb to overconfidence or simply hit the reset button and do everything the same way, hoping for the same result.
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As a young writer with an underdeveloped critical toolkit and the overconfidence that often comes along with that, I could just tell that Cardboard Computer's pitch for KRZ was promising the sorts of things that I was desperate to see more of, and which I hoped the then-burgeoning "indie boom" would bring.
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But with stocks reaching record highs with credit markets sturdy, a perceived scarcity of cash-flow-producing assets globally and no outright overconfidence yet being shown by investors, stocks enjoy some tailwinds that keep alive the prospect that the market could start running well ahead of that plausible pace now predicted by Wall Street's handicappers.
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"In the aftermath of corporate and public-sector disasters, it often emerges that participants fell prey to a collective form of willful blindness and overconfidence: mounting warning signals were systematically cast aside or met with denial, evidence avoided or selectively reinterpreted, dissenters shunned," Roland Bénabou a professor at Princeton University wrote in a seminal work on confidence and groupthink.
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Speaking at the Center for a New American Security, Warner advanced the idea that America's cybersecurity is on the whole ineffectual; that its response to foreign adversaries is either too weak or too slow to matter; and that its vulnerabilities, in addition to past failures, are largely the result of existing in a state of complacency and overconfidence for decades.
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Today, those who counted on Mr. Rubio to emerge as the Republican standard-bearer and usher the party into a new era talk about the same shortcomings that doomed his sweeping tax plan: an overconfidence in the power of his charisma; an emphasis on inspiring messages, rather than nuts-and-bolts tactics; and a lack of finesse at crucial moments.
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Or to be less judgmental, let's say that there's been a strange cycle at work, where Republican incompetence helps liberalism consolidate its hold on highly educated America … but that consolidation, in turn, breeds liberal insularity and overconfidence (in big data and election science, in demographic inevitability, in the wisdom of declaring certain policy debates closed) and helps Republican support persist as a kind of protest vote, an attempt to limit liberalism's hegemony by keeping legislative power in the other party's hands.
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