Just as climate scientists warn of tipping points in biophysical systems, social scientists describe tipping points in social systems.
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Now some of those countries have reached their tipping points.
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As I've written before, such tipping points are certainly possible.
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And tipping points don't have to be signs of trouble.
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Both solar and wind power are nearing two crucial tipping points.
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"I don't think they've reached any tipping points," the official said.
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There must be thresholds and tipping points in a warming world.
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As a result, not all researchers embrace the idea of tipping points.
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Two rape scenes serve as tipping points for Turner's rebellion in the movie.
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"'Tipping points' is a propaganda slogan for the scientifically illiterate," the comment reads.
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There have been tipping points and bombshells, walls closing in and turning points.
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But other unforeseen changes and climate tipping points could accelerate us toward the cliff.
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And we don't even know whether thresholds for tipping points are planetary, or regional.
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"In the past, tipping points have typically been millions of people dying," he said.
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Tipping points in the world's rainforests, the Arctic and oceans are being reached yearly.
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Ultimately, there's an element of the miraculous to social tipping points, of intrinsic unpredictability.
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Starting in 22015, a wider range of technologies will begin to reach their tipping points.
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It's one of the tipping points in Earth's climate system that scientists are tracking closely.
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But models don't capture policies not yet passed, and they don't often capture tipping points.
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These tipping points don't exist in isolation; many of them interact and reinforce one another.
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"For me, the most important thing is to find some of the tipping points," Sarlo says.
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Dr. Trusel agreed that talk of tipping points could discount humans' ability to mitigate global warming.
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In both domains, there are "tipping points" after which change accelerates, rendering the once implausible inevitable.
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We have an extremely limited window of time to prevent dangerous tipping points and avoid climate catastrophe.
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Egypt and Libya, in particular, could represent tipping points for the Islamic State and its global presence.
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"The problem with tipping points is you don't know you've hit them until you've passed them," said Bruna.
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None of the previous tipping points could have been predicted, so what comes next remains to be seen.
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Political scientists have written about the importance of tipping points in ethnic strife or resentment around the globe.
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It's a combination of it's equatorial, which means it's already hot and it's closer to these tipping points.
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Recent evidence points to the possibility of dire tipping points beyond which climate change would be vastly accelerated.
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Al Gore, for example, has invoked social tipping points for decades, forever predicting them just around the corner.
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A World Economic Forum survey in 2017 predicted a series of "technological tipping points" for the coming decade.
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As 2019 came to a close, new warnings arrived about tipping points that could significantly accelerate climate change.
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"If we're going to avoid the worst of bad climate tipping points, then we're going to need to find some positive tipping points in society and ourselves to transform the way we live—in a generation—to a more sustainable but also perhaps a more flourishing kind of future," Lenton said.
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Tipping points are crossed when decision-makers find the needed change irresistible from a political, economic, and social standpoint.
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The NIC report also considers the possibility of abrupt climate change from unanticipated tipping points in the climate system.
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In every war, there are very real tipping points, past which victory, or even a draw, will become impossible.
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Tipping points like these could prove irreversible, and eventually lead to famine and several feet of sea-level rise.
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And every year, the need for negative emissions grows more urgent, with several warming tipping points on the horizon.
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She and her colleagues look for the boundaries, the tipping points of where matter flows toward one basin or another.
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Potential buyers could also pay attention to neighborhoods near areas with exorbitant tipping points that could have significantly lower ones.
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Research has not identified indicators of tipping points in climate-linked Earth systems, suggesting a possibility of abrupt climate change.
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They lay out how we reached and surpassed several crucial tipping points, and how entire swathes of continents are uninhabitable.
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The idea of social tipping points has long provided comfort to climate hawks dismayed at the slow pace of action.
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"In our view, the consideration of tipping points helps to define that we are in a climate emergency," they wrote.
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The most straightforward way to better integrate tipping points into IAMs would be to increase the steepness of the damage function.
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There are a lot of tipping points in nature; we don't get to do a redo if you go past them.
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If we don't take decisive action in the next 10 to 20 years, the damage will have passed irreversible tipping points.
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Implementing these rules may not be reactionary, but rather, tipping points seized by the league to make the game make more sense.
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Scientists say further increases risk triggering tipping points that could make parts of the world uninhabitable, devastate farming and drown coastal cities.
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It said that natural systems were now being destabilized so quickly by human activity that dangerous tipping points would soon be reached.
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" In 2015, Famiglietti's team used Grace to determine that more than half of the world's largest aquifers were "past sustainability tipping points.
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Scientists warn further increases risk triggering tipping points that could render swathes of the globe uninhabitable, devastate farming and drown coastal cities.
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Clinton's unqualified support for abortion rights — and Mr. Trump's opposition (and promise to nominate anti-abortion Supreme Court justices) — were tipping points.
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Reconfigurations made to the substructures of painting — often marking cultural tipping points — become new supports for other planes of thinking and acting.
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Both of these dynamics would reverberate powerfully through the states that both sides see as the potential tipping points of the 2020 election.
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In particular, they are looking for tipping points beyond which rain-on-snow events could have irreversible effects on the Arctic food web.
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"The auto sector has three different tipping points at the same time: electric powertrain with the connected car and autonomous drive," he said.
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"We are clearly reaching a moment of crossing one of those tipping points into a completely different planet, a jungle planet," Robinson said.
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We know that somewhere out there, at some temperature, there are tipping points at which biophysical processes that drive warming will become self-sustaining.
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In prestigious neighborhoods, such as The Peak, Shouson Hill, Jardines Lookout and Kowloon Tong, tipping points for Hong Kong PRs stood at 25 years.
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That's not a coincidence, it's because those parts of the world are already hotter and are closer to the brink of real tipping points.
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Most successful democracies have parliamentary governments — often backed by proportional electoral systems — leading to a politics that reenforces this tendency and avoids tipping points.
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He says there were a couple of tipping points as they moved more and more of the application to AWS — including eventually, the master database.
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However, Lenton and others point out that positive tipping points exist as well—for instance, when society organizes into action in order to avert crises.
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And as climate change pushes ocean temperatures upward, an event like El Niño becomes that much more likely to push the coral past their tipping points.
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The biosphere tipping points involve the devastation of boreal forests, the Amazon rainforest, warm-water coral reefs, and the thawing of frozen soil known as permafrost.
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On the other hand, relative to the enormous stakes involved, the paper just reveals how dreadfully thin and tenuous our knowledge of social tipping points is.
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But those numbers do not include tipping points, most feedback loops, additional warming hidden by toxic air pollution, or the aspects of equity and climate justice.
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"Thawing permafrost is one of the tipping points for climate breakdown and it's happening before our very eyes," said Jennifer Morgan, Executive Director of Greenpeace International.
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As a result, it tends to exclude scientific research around the uncertainties of when and how self-reinforcing feedbacks might cross tipping points leading to runaway effects.
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"Most tipping points have been viewed with hindsight, we have looked back and said 'oh, it looks like the tipping point was x years ago,'" Dearing said.
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That goal will necessitate not only a better understanding of climate thresholds, he said, but also "finding and triggering social tipping points towards a more sustainable future."
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Building a third runway would make that goal harder to reach, according to scientists, who project that Earth's climate system is fast heading toward irreversible tipping points.
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Tipping points will be high when rents are lower than the level they should be or when property prices are above what is expected based on rental yields.
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Neighborhoods with high tipping points are highly desirable among buyers, who often overpay in terms of property sale price, said Asif Ghafoor, chief executive of Spacious Hong Kong.
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"At some point when you push the system far enough, it's quite likely that tipping points will happen where the changes start to be non-linear," Lade said.
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Other tipping points include rain forest loss in places like the Amazon, monsoon shifts in Africa and Asia, changes to ocean circulation patterns, and coral reef die-offs.
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" Another grateful fan wrote that "the tipping points for me were when you covered Jordan Peterson (a seemingly wholesome do-gooder) [and] made Sargon look like a buffoon.
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Public discourse about ecology tends to be off-puttingly dour and hortatory, full of grim scientific data about climate change and futile political ultimatums about civilization's doomsday tipping points.
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But if tipping points are more likely to be regional or local, maybe certain parts of the world—refuges from climate change and other pressures—will stay relatively safe.
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The nine tipping points that Lenton and his colleagues emphasize fall into two main categories: the loss of the planet's icy cryosphere and key parts of its living biosphere.
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It constructs a framework for understanding social tipping points, the systems where they might do the most good on climate, and the kinds of interventions that might trigger them.
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As the story opens, Hel realizes that Sleigh existed in both worlds and may or may not have been one of those minute tipping points that caused both to diverge.
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That leaves a void for guessing how fossil fuel demand would change if solar or wind reach these tipping points on price, or if countries implement more aggressive climate policies.
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But the authors say data from the two most recent IPCC reports in 2018 and September 407.83, suggest tipping points can happen between 1 C and 2 C of warming.
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The lower the amount of warming, the less likely it is that the planet will trigger climate change tipping points like the loss of the Greenland or West Antarctic ice sheets.
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These examples show that the impacts of a changing climate aren't always slow and gradual; global warming can push some phenomena to tipping points that lead to rapid, self-propagating changes.
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This critical flow of ocean currents "has large direct effects on climate in heavily populated regions like western Europe, and also it couples together lots of other tipping points," Lenton explained.
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"I think the severity and extent of this fire season will represent tipping points for many ecological communities," said Lesley Hughes, an ecologist and climate scientist at Macquarie University in Sydney.
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Macdonald explained that tipping points come about when glaciers lose more ice than usual in summer months and the melted ice flows away as meltwater, altering the glacier's dynamics and stability.
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His field's basic premise is that all of the interdependencies within complex systems result in various "tipping points" and non-linear responses that are difficult to describe using simpler mathematical models.
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In a 2012 paper, famed Harvard climate economist Martin Weitzman "proposes a steeper damage function that relies on input from an expert panel that explicitly considered physical tipping points," the authors write.
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With impacts from rising temperatures manifesting faster than most models had predicted, scientists see the shrinking of Alpine glaciers as another warning sign that Earth's climate is lurching toward dangerous tipping points.
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Bearish investors point to several possible tipping points, including escalating trade tensions, European worries (including Italy's debt load) and if the Fed is unexpectedly aggressive when it comes to raising interest rates.
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While Lenton and his colleagues acknowledge there is a high degree of uncertainty about the activation and effects of climate tipping points, they stress that even the speculative implications demand urgent action.
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We would also likely surpass 2 degrees, the target the world's nations agreed to in 2015 at Paris, raising the odds of catastrophic tipping points like the melting of all Arctic sea ice.
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For one, it's important to look at Microsoft's HoloLens and Google Glass as tipping points for AR's transition into the tech industry spotlight, alongside the expectations consumers have with this type of technology.
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The difficulty of envisioning such a thing has led climate hawks like Al Gore to place their hopes on unpredictable social "tipping points," invisible thresholds that, once breached, will allegedly yield radical change.
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Social scientists have long observed that a sufficiently large and committed minority within a group can trigger tipping points in the larger group's social norms, causing rapid phase shifts in popular moral opinion.
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For all the admirable and useful work this research does to put some parameters around the discussion of social tipping points, ultimately it only aggregates what are, in effect, hunches and educated guesses.
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Rather, if it happens at all, it will be through grinding out victories where Democrats control things — some states and lots and lots of cities — until economic and social tipping points are reached.
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There is also increasing evidence that global warming is approaching self-reinforcing "tipping points" — like the melting of polar ice or the dieback of tropical forests — that could cause irreversible, self-perpetuating climate change.
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The rate isn't constant: Instead, there's reason to believe everything from Arctic melt to Amazon deforestation might experience what's known as "tipping points," where small changes in nature shift into rapid and irreversible damage.
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Even so, the findings by charity CDP suggested many companies still underestimated the dangers as scientists warn that earth's climate system is on course to hit catastrophic tipping points without rapid cuts in carbon emissions.
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In the letter, the researchers — who include MIT's Kerry Emanuel, who has been open about his past support for Republican candidates — warn against triggering climate "tipping points" as well as political points of no return.
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Even holding global temperatures well below 2 degrees Celsius, which should help to prevent even worse tipping points from happening, will require global emissions to fall to zero by 2040 or 85033 at the latest.
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Nine crucial tipping points in Earth's climate are now "active" and in danger of being crossed thanks to warming global temperatures caused by human activity, warn scientists in a commentary published on Wednesday in Nature.
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"Yes, we are facing alarming rates of change and this raises the likelihood of abrupt, non-linear changes in the climate system that may cause tipping points in the Earth's safe operating space," she said.
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With scientists warning that the window to prevent the Earth's climate hitting irreversible tipping points is fast closing, an increasingly strident activism movement says a strong signal from the summit is the only acceptable outcome.
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He says that using a mix of big data, machine learning, and mathematics derived from the science of phase transitions, his team is able to identify the tipping points of a wide variety of global crises.
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Active problem areas Led by Timothy Lenton, professor of climate change and Earth system science at the University of Exeter, in southwest England, the team identified nine areas where they say tipping points are already underway.
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As the decade closes, there is a growing recognition that climate change is having more calamitous impacts on ecosystems and human society than expected, and scientific concern over tipping points that no longer seem as distant.
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As temperatures rise, America's temperate forests will face increasingly frequent and severe disturbances from fire, insect outbreaks, drought, and invasive species — and could eventually die away into other kinds of ecosystems, if certain tipping points are crossed.
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The Madrid talks were viewed as a test of governments' collective will to heed the advice of scientists to cut greenhouse gas emissions more rapidly in order to prevent rising global temperatures from hitting irreversible tipping points.
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"We are at a critical junction in time, where every tonne of carbon emitted takes us closer to dangerous climate tipping points which could unravel human civilization within our own and our children's lifetimes," the groups warned.
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"This is just one example of how glaciers can become unstable as they respond to climate change and pass tipping points," Grant Macdonald, a graduate student in glaciology at the University of Chicago, said in an email.
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We need models that negatively weigh uncertainty, properly account for tipping points, incorporate more robust and current technology cost data, better differentiate sectors outside electricity, rigorously price energy efficiency, and include the social and health benefits of decarbonization.
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There are TED talks and Freakonomics case studies, online personality tests, influential books, and articles that advise which tipping points to avoid or seek out, how to feel better by doing power poses, and how to be happy.
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The Madrid talks were viewed as an indicator of governments' collective will to crystallise the decisive action scientists say is needed to slash greenhouse gas emissions in time to prevent rising global temperatures from hitting irreversible tipping points.
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The Paris process faces a moment of truth next year when governments are due to unveil more ambitious proposals to cut the production of planet-warming gases in time to stop the climate careering past dangerous tipping points.
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What we don't understand is how much we can degrade deep-sea ecosystems before we reach tipping points, where the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function affects the health of the ecosystem beyond levels that are acceptable to society.
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It's happening because of human activities, and it's on the cusp of pushing the climate toward tipping points or other "unforeseen consequences" that could reshape the planet as we know it, warns a new federal report released on Friday.
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They include how much Earth will eventually warm, how rapidly oceans will rise, where and when weather extremes and water shortages might occur, and whether potential tipping points (like the collapse of Antarctic ice sheets) will, in fact, occur.
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The COP25 talks in Madrid were viewed as a test of governments' collective will to heed the advice of scientists to cut greenhouse gas emissions more rapidly in order to prevent rising global temperatures from hitting irreversible tipping points.
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"If you can bring about 25% of the industry together across the value chain, you can create tipping points, and that accelerates things," Dutch businessman Polman, 63, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation in an interview at a Davos hotel.
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The reasons have been examined in previous blog articles: low growth, low inflation, global slack and global imbalances (for example in commodities and in parts of EM) that continue to linger but which are not yet at tipping points.
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While there are uncertainties about exactly how catastrophic unchecked climate change will be -- and when, exactly, certain tipping points, such as the melting of Greenland, which could raise sea levels 20143 meters, will be crossed -- the crisis we face is clear.
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One of the more well-known such tipping points is Arctic sea ice, which could disappear in the summer in just 15 years, according to the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme's Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic report.
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Op-Ed Contributor As with all historic tipping points, it seems inevitable in retrospect: Of course it was the young people, the actual victims of the slaughter, who have finally begun to turn the tide against guns in this country.
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And since there are no real experts on tipping points, no reason to think energy researchers have a better feel for them than anybody else, all we can really know we are learning about is a slice of educated opinion.
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And there are feedback loops and tipping points we're still uncertain about, like how much future warming we could see due to the slow release of carbon from thawing permafrost or a massive, drought-fueled dieback of the Amazon rainforest.
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COOK: I don&apost know when it began but I can tell you that leadership has been divisive and I think that that&aposs caused the culture to really be explosive now and I think Roseanne&aposs was just one for the tipping points.
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To take another example, it's surely regrettable that the development of "clean" carbon-free energy wasn't prioritised earlier, so that we'd have cheap and efficient alternatives to fossil fuel soon enough to prevent carbon dioxide rising to levels that threaten the crossing of "tipping points".
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Led by climate scientist Dmitry Yumashev of Lancaster University, the paper found that factoring in two Arctic feedback loops, regarded as key tipping points in the future of the Arctic climate, cloud inflate global temperatures and their costs by as much as 1653 percent.
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"If we dont act now we will soon reach crucial tipping points of our climate system, meaning after that theres no way out anymore," Marschall said, taking a break from lobbying Deutsche Bank executives to divest from polluting industries at the company's annual general meeting on Thursday.
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"If we don't act now we will soon reach crucial tipping points of our climate system, meaning after that there's no way out anymore," Marschall said, taking a break from lobbying Deutsche Bank executives to divest from polluting industries at the company's annual general meeting on Thursday.
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The Electoral College is a big deal, especially since it seems to be biased in Trump's favor heading into 2020, but we know that Electoral College bias occasionally flips around as various medium-sized states swap roles as tipping points (it favored Democrats as recently as 2012).
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In a recent commentary in the journal Nature, scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and other institutions warned that the acceleration of ice loss and other effects of climate change have brought the world "dangerously close" to abrupt and irreversible changes, or tipping points.
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" According to Dr. Wolfgang Knorr, Principal Investigator at Lund University's Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a Changing Climate Program, the risk of near-term collapse should be taken far more seriously by climate scientists, given the fact that so much is unknown about climate tipping points: "I am not saying that Bendell is right or wrong.
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At some level of atmospheric warming, perhaps as low as the famous 2 degrees Celsius above baseline target set out in the Paris agreement, which we could hit within the next few decades, we may still have to deal with the melting of all the Arctic sea ice or any number of other thresholds that could accelerate warming, pushing us domino-style past further tipping points and committing us to a "Hothouse Earth" that's radically different from anything we experience today.
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