Just as there are spillovers conservatives cheer, there are spillovers progressives celebrate.
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If gaining population causes positive spillovers, then losing population should have negative spillovers.
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"While the effects of individual policy actions are amplified through positive cross-border spillovers, any possible negative cross-border spillovers arising from individual policy actions should also be considered," it says.
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For economists these spillovers are a problem to be solved.
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It also highlights Lebanon's vulnerability to spillovers from regional tensions.
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But spillovers, like federalism, don't have a particular political valence.
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Here again, spillovers are ultimately a tool for encouraging compromise.
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Aside from growth, "there could also be financial spillovers," he warned.
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It's a story of spillovers and feedback loops and unintended consequences.
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Guerrieri, Hartley, and Hurst model this as a question of spillovers.
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The trade spat is just the most visible of the economic spillovers.
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There are also other less obvious negative spillovers included in the index.
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With the idea of spillovers in your head, it becomes easier to understand.
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The spillovers to Europe and the global economy would be small and transitory.
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"It's all about the regional spillovers of these big metro areas," he said.
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Basically, the negative spillovers the previous studies suggested were possible didn't show up.
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The study even credits the festival with "knowledge spillovers" into fields including life sciences.
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If it is allowed to carry on unabated it could generate very powerful spillovers.
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They are more than capable of sending some spillovers the way of other states.
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It is related to the ESM and to countries ... having spillovers to some external events.
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Tragic spillovers followed, with Afghan refugees and returning jihadists seeping into Pakistan by the thousands.
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RISK OF 'CONSEQUENTIAL SPILLOVERS' Economists typically look at events like this with a sanguine eye.
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IMF SAYS ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA DISRUPTED BY CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK; SPILLOVERS TO OTHER COUNTRIES LIKELY
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But it also noted that not all of the regional spillovers from China's economy are negative.
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The chance of more [spillovers into humans] happening is higher because we are degrading these landscapes.
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Location is more important than ever, in part because knowledge spillovers are more important than ever.
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Again, there were no similar "spillovers" to male surgeons after a negative experience with one new surgeon.
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Negative spillovers from weak terms of trade have been felt in investment, consumption and domestic confidence indicators.
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Migration, climate change, technological standards, and spillovers from economic policy require coordination between countries and economic blocs.
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Inside, the Fed's decision-making generates equally prodigious spillovers, channelling the flow of capital around the world.
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Although seemingly counterintuitive, there could be substantial nuclear "spillovers" from that distant region to the Middle East.
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I believe that education spillovers are largest in the STEM fields so this would also benefit society.
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That itself reduced the odds of negative spillovers by creating fewer relative "losers" within the same village.
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And perhaps even more important, there could be system-wide spillovers beyond the high-yield debt markets.
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These spillovers were easy enough to ignore when emerging economies accounted for a smaller proportion of global GDP.
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With inflation distant from its target, it is forced to maintain a massive stimulus despite the negative spillovers.
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The spillovers of an adverse future financial event are potentially serious, even if the domestic impact is contained.
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We can't fully insulate ourselves from spillovers from Europe where there still are some things to be done.
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"We could see spillovers from global weakness and trade into services and into the job market," she said.
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Besides the lack of focus on spillovers, there is also this anti-gentrification line that always grates on me.
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But having said that, so far, the spillovers from Turkey and Argentina to other countries have not been substantial.
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Carney added that it was a fair assumption that international financial markets would suffer negative spillovers from a Brexit.
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"If downside risks were to materialize, regional and global spillovers could be significant given Italy's systemic weight," it said.
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Some of these investments will directly bear fruit for the economy, and others will do so indirectly through spillovers.
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"Some positive spillovers from the U.S. will start to emerge for the Canadian economy and the Canadian dollar," Button said.
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Further, global headwinds are likely to persist in the months beyond, with increasing evidence of spillovers to the domestic economy.
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Financial-market volatility has fallen, and most economic forecasts do not reflect expected large spillovers from continued headwinds from abroad.
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"In the euro zone, spillovers from Brexit will materialize through trade, financial and confidence channels," UniCredit economist Erik Nielsen said.
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In other words, these fire-sale spillovers amount to six to seven cents per dollar of "shocked" total net assets.
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China's economic slowdown has slashed demand for commodities and components worldwide, causing spillovers to emerging markets and advanced economies alike.
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The IMF noted this week that the Fed should continue raising rates gradually "while being mindful of potential global spillovers".
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Trade disputes could escalate or become more widespread, denting activity in the economies involved and leading to negative global spillovers.
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On Friday, IMF chief Christine Lagarde called on G20 officials to focus on global economic spillovers from their policy decisions.
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"Stronger financial market integration increases the adverse spillovers from the U.S. shock on output in all economies," the OECD said.
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Sadly for us, spillovers from animals occur with disturbing frequency, accounting for most of the infectious diseases that afflict our species.
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"We find large positive spillovers on female empowerment, driven mainly by reductions in physical and sexual domestic violence," the researchers write.
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The boost from infrastructure will have positive spillovers to private investment and more than offset the declining contribution from residential investment.
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And China is a big enough player that a bust there could have major spillovers to the rest of the world.
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To avoid potential market spillovers, the U.K.'s financial conduct authority (FCA) has recently started a daily monitoring of property funds.
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The deal provides $600 million to address environmental problems in the region, like sewage spillovers from Tijuana that impact San Diego.
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"Members noted that infrastructure investment was expected to have significant positive spillovers to other parts of the economy," the minutes showed.
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You have all these arguments about why immigration is positive, and how there are important spillovers for population growth from immigration.
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Because of these spillovers, society would be much better off if companies conducted more research and boosted investment in machinery and equipment.
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Zoonotic spillovers like these, as well as illnesses carried by mosquitoes, ticks, and other animals, will likely increase on a hotter planet.
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Yellen warns of 'spillovers' from trade war However, the manufacturing industry has been slammed by the trade war and weak global growth.
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"The relocation of production to Southeast Asia, if sustained, could yield some positive spillovers, at the margin, to Singapore," the central bank said.
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It isn't entirely the case that the spillovers are not occurring but if the stress continues then you will see more dollar strength.
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For whatever reason, we managed to boost the local economy and generate large economic spillover and the psychological spillovers seemed to track those.
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We know there are positive spillovers and if all countries are trying to lift their economies I think there would be substantial mutual benefit.
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Investors in Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet lost a total of $650 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018, with no systemic spillovers.
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"We find there are very clear spillovers from Chinese economic activity towards (developed market) capex," said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research at BlackRock.
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With enough credit in the system, economic activity could power through regulatory uncertainty, even as it accumulated damage from the inefficiencies and negative spillovers.
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In the past, these policies have been lucrative for financial assets but the spillovers to the real economy have left something to be desired.
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"The negative spillovers on the domestic economy could continue to spread in the coming quarters, requiring stronger fiscal and monetary policy support," she added.
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It also tested for spillovers — an increased minimum wage in one state raising wages in the state next door — and found they were negligible.
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European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said central banks around the world should aim to align monetary policies to mitigate "destabilising spillovers" between economies.
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However, net global quantitative easing will continue to rise in 2628, despite the Fed's balance sheet reversal, continuing positive spillovers into U.S. financial conditions.
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In a speech in Portugal Draghi said central banks around the world should aim to align their monetary policies to mitigate "destabilising spillovers" between economies.
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He emphasised that the Fed will carry out its rate increases in a predictable and transparent manner to minimize any negative spillovers to emerging economies.
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"Turmoil already seen in some emerging market economies could worsen, with negative spillovers to Asia through reduced capital flows and higher funding costs," it said.
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But Kenya and other neighbors also keep a wary eye on the Horn of Africa nation, eager to stop any potential spillovers of Islamist violence.
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He emphasized that the Fed will carry out its rate increases in a predictable and transparent manner to minimize any negative spillovers to emerging economies.
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"EM earnings per share revisions are deteriorating amid unresolved challenges," said Pascal Blanque, group chief investment officer at Amundi, highlighting trade disputes and FX spillovers.
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Because people may ignore the positive spillovers when weighing the costs and benefits, too few people will get vaccinated, unless the government somehow promotes vaccination.
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The benefits of IP protection do not stop at the manufacturing sector: spillovers from manufacturing include increased demand for raw materials, energy, construction, and services.
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ECB chief Mario Draghi meanwhile said on Wednesday that the possible spillovers of the new trade measures announced by the U.S. administration could hurt inflation.
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A more recent study, published in April by the National Bureau of Economic Research in America, supported the idea of big knowledge spillovers in super-regions.
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"We've witnessed economic spillovers not simply because of a public health problem, but because of a governance problem that delayed reporting of the disease," said Rep.
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The balance of evidence favours the immigration cheerleaders, although the positive economic and fiscal spillovers from low-skilled arrivals to America are often exaggerated (see article).
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Global market spillovers from China's economic shocks will only increase in coming years as the country's financial influence grows, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday.
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House approvals were also 6.1 percent higher than in February last year, an encouraging sign for jobs and spending given the broad economic spillovers from construction.
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This suggests that within clusters spillovers of technological and organisational know-how are genuine; attracting successful firms is a way to channel knowledge into lagging regions.
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"Monetary policy has inevitably created destabilizing spillovers as well, especially when business cycles have been less aligned," Draghi said at an ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal.
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"This would be another blow for EMs as an asset class, but the wider economic spillovers should be fairly modest, even for the euro zone," he added.
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Nevertheless, the prospects of rising US interest rates, slowing growth in China, and rising protectionism represent some of the top global risks with potential spillovers to APAC.
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At the same time, the direct effect of the minimum wage on average earnings was amplified by modest wage spillovers at the bottom of the wage distribution.
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"There has been an active debate among policymakers about the spillovers of U.S. monetary policy to the rest of the world," the paper said, citing Powell's speech.
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The research showed that bats were found to carry the largest number of zoonotic viruses, and spillovers were most likely to occur in South and Central America.
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A 'trade war' would have adverse spillovers for APAC economies, particularly those that are closely connected to regional supply chains and that are most dependent on exports.
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European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Tuesday that central banks around the world should aim to align monetary policies to mitigate "destabilising spillovers" between economies.
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Spillovers in the 2010-13 period were obviously greater than the years since, but the analysis shows that meaningful moves in Italian bonds do move other markets.
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Spillovers are nearly impossible to witness and document: A brush with bat droppings goes unnoticed, and symptoms of infection usually don't appear for at least a week.
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By better coordinating these policies, the major economies can improve market confidence and limit the spillovers on the rest of the IMF's 188 member countries, she said.
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European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Tuesday that central banks around the world should aim to align monetary policies to mitigate "destabilizing spillovers" between economies.
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These spillovers are increasing exponentially as our ecological footprint brings us closer to wildlife in remote areas and the wildlife trade brings these animals into urban centers.
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"Around the stadium, there are clear and direct local spillovers," Stan Veuger, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and co-author of the study told CNBC.
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The militants briefly overran the town in 2014 in a battle that killed dozens and marked one of the more serious spillovers of the Syrian conflict in Lebanon.
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This would seem to be especially the case with likely spillovers to Argentina from a brewing currency crisis in Brazil ahead of that country's contentious October presidential election.
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Ongoing tensions on the Korean peninsula could potentially have disruptive spillovers on market sentiment and trade relations, but we view the risk of an outright conflict as low.
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"A loss of confidence in Japan's fiscal sustainability could destabilize the financial sector and the real economy, with large negative spillovers to the world economy," the report said.
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Northeast Lebanon saw one of the worst spillovers of Syria's war into Lebanon in 2014, when Islamic State and Nusra Front militants briefly overran the border town of Arsal.
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ECB President Mario Draghi called on Tuesday for central banks around the world to align their monetary policies to help prevent "destabilising spillovers" between economies growing at different paces.
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"It's the spillovers that we are concerned with ... the spillover could have effects from one market to the other, from the financial market to the real market," said Guinigundo.
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"Most economies are still recovering from the financial crisis, and spillovers from the vote could be destabilizing," wrote Fergus McCormick, head of sovereign ratings at credit analysis firm DBRS.
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LONDON (Reuters) - Central banks should think hard about potential risks and spillovers before issuing their own cryptocurrency, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said in a report on Monday.
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"Although spillovers to date have not been widespread, a prolonged period of uncertainty associated with the referendum could affect the global economy, particularly the euro area," the BoE added.
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Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said the United States' deepened overseas trade and financial ties have exposed it to increasing "spillovers" that central bankers cannot ignore in setting policy.
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Northeastern Lebanon was the scene of one of the worst spillovers from Syria's civil war in 2014 when Islamic State and Nusra Front militants attacked the town of Arsal.
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To date, the debt emergencies in Greece, Cyprus, Italy and other euro zone countries — not to mention Argentina, Malaysia and perhaps Pakistan before long — have had limited global spillovers.
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"This dynamic has probably been supported by international spillovers from non-US rates where QE [quantitative easing] and low growth and inflation expectations have supported lower 10y rates," they wrote.
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Northeastern Lebanon was the scene of one of the worst spillovers of Syria's war into Lebanon in 2014, when Islamic State and Nusra Front militants attacked the town of Arsal.
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Concern is growing in EU capitals about the impact of the crisis on the Spanish economy, the fourth largest in the euro zone, and on possible spillovers to other economies.
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"There will be very positive spillovers for everyone from this process and it will also help countries in which the exposures are larger or which have legacy problems," he said.
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"Although a U.K. contraction would be unhelpful for the U.S., trade-related contagion should remain manageable ... The risk of financial spillovers is greater," Goldman said in a report circulated on Wednesday.
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" He also said central banks around the world need to coordinate on monetary policy in order to combat shared challenges but they also need to act to prevent "monetary policy spillovers.
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Bruno Maçães, a former Portuguese foreign minister and writer on BRI, argues that its spillovers into politics and society "are not a bug in the project, but its most fundamental feature".
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Axel Weber, UBS chairman and a former policymaker at the European Central Bank (ECB), has warned today's incumbents that monetary intervention is causing international spillovers and major disturbances in global markets.
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Islamic State has held nine Lebanese soldiers captive since 2014, when it briefly overran the border town of Arsal with other militants - one of the worst spillovers of the Syrian conflict.
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Concern is growing in EU capitals about the negative impact of the crisis on the Spanish economy, the fourth largest in the euro zone, and on possible spillovers to other economies.
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When Trump announced that he would delay implementing those tariffs, markets regained most of their losses, only to decline steeply again on more trade war fallout, including spillovers to other countries.
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"If trade tensions escalate further, our economists see the direct impact of tariffs interacting with the indirect effects of tighter financial conditions and other spillovers, potentially leading consumers to retrench," she wrote.
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Photo by 19andy76While most dams are designed with spillovers that simply allow extra water to fall over the top of the dam like a waterfall, this reservoir has what's called "bellmouth" overflows.
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The warning against spillovers from global events was similar to the ones made by his predecessor Raghuram Rajan, a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund widely respected by global investors.
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"If you're thinking about world class innovation clusters, in which university-industry technology transfer and associated spillovers work, Israel is clearly among them with U.S., Switzerland and maybe Germany," said Wunsch-Vincent.
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After all, it's not possible to shut down a large portion of the world's second-largest economy without directly affecting global growth, including subsequent spillovers to other countries from China's global integration.
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Spillovers thus force state and local officials to do what they are supposed to do: politic, find common ground, and negotiate a compromise that no one likes but everyone can live with.
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Islamic State has held nine Lebanese soldiers captive since 2014, when it briefly overran the border town of Arsal in northeast Lebanon with other militants - one of the worst spillovers of Syria's war.
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"The consumer will continue to power ahead, as spillovers from the weak mining and manufacturing sector to services industries remain limited," said Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research in New York.
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"We've got a political crisis in the UK, with an economic one about to hit, so there will be spillovers from that," said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets.
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"A gradual and ongoing removal of accommodation seems likely both to maximize the prospects of a continued expansion in the U.S. economy and to mitigate the risk of undesirable spillovers abroad," Fischer said.
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Fischer also said he was "reasonably confident" that spillovers from the Fed raising interest rates would prove manageable for foreign economies to which the United States is interlinked by trade and financial channels.
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It may seem like a paradox: "Spillovers are a rarity and an inevitability," Emma Glennon, lead author of a separate study which analyzed the spread of the infamous 2013-2016 outbreak, told me.
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"The global financial crisis taught us that fragilities can be more real than apparent and that global spillovers mean that broadly shared systemic fragilities can lead to disastrous contagion and amplification," he said.
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SINTRA, Portugal (Reuters) - Central banks around the world should align their monetary policies to help prevent "destabilizing spillovers" between economies growing at different paces, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Tuesday.
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"There is one discussion which is at the political level about precautionary measures we could take if there would be spillovers to (other) countries," Peter Praet told an audience in London on Tuesday.
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"There is one discussion, which is at the political level, about precautionary measures we could take if there would be spillovers to (other) countries," Praet told an audience at a UBS conference in London.
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Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund warned in a media briefing of a bumpy economic rebalancing in China and said the "larger spillovers" from its financial markets were a risk to economic growth in Asia.
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His hostility with Russia, and mistrust with Iran and Israel, has thwarted Erdogan's maneuverability in Syria and contributed to the nearly 3 million migrants on Turkish territory -- and violent spillovers from the Middle East.
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SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China sought to restore confidence in its economy as financial leaders from G20 nations gathered in Shanghai on Friday, and Premier Li Keqiang urged greater global coordination and consideration of policy spillovers.
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Draghi, himself an Italian, said a country leaving the euro zone would still be affected by the "spillovers" of the ECB's monetary policy, as was the case with the Bundesbank before the euro's launch.
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Concern is growing in EU capitals about the negative impact of the crisis on the Spanish economy, the fourth largest in the euro zone, and on possible spillovers to other economies of the bloc.
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"If true, this would mean the U.S. economy could soon bump up against capacity constraints that would slow growth and generate domestic inflationary pressures with negative global spillovers," the IMF said in its report.
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"While Turkey does not reflect any endemic risk among emerging markets, there could still be some sentiment spillovers into emerging market currencies and risky assets in the near term," Mizuho Bank said in a note.
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There is some evidence to suggest that winning a big plant can be good for a local economy, and the size and high-tech skills of Amazon's workforce should generate spillovers for the local economy.
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The transport links "will be an added drag on South Korea's budget but it will also have positive spillovers via greater employment and manufacturing as the project is built," said Katrina Ell, economist at Moody's.
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Massive stimulus in the U.S. would initially lead to higher interest rates and push up the value of the U.S. dollar, and would have major spillovers for emerging markets and dollar borrowers around the world.
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"If there's one thing we've identified clearly in the past few years, it's the importance of spillovers, spill-backs ... how one monetary policy decided in one country can have repercussions in other countries," Lagarde said.
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That could force Italy's anti-austerity government to adopt a "sharp fiscal tightening" even if growth slows, with risks of spillovers into other euro zone countries, the Fund said, confirming a Reuters report last month.
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Market-based inflation expectations EUIL5YF5Y=R are also near their 2016 high in anticipation of a more expansionary U.S. fiscal policy under the new Republican administration with positive spillovers for global, including euro zone, growth.
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said on Friday that G20 finance ministers and central bank governors should focus on global economic spillovers from their policy decisions when they meet in Shanghai next week.
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As Latin America's largest economy, one must expect considerable spillovers to the rest of the Latin American economy from a further deepening in the Brazilian crisis, especially at a time of heightened global economic insecurity.
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The exhibition "Lucio Fontana: On the Threshold," at the Met Breuer, with spillovers at the Met Fifth Avenue and El Museo del Barrio, is the artist's first museum survey here in more than 260 years.
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"While it is unrealistic to expect advanced economy policymakers to internalise fully spillovers from their actions on emerging markets, given their domestic mandates, (their) monetary policies will increasingly need to take account of spillbacks," he said.
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"While it is unrealistic to expect advanced economy policymakers to internalize fully spillovers from their actions on emerging markets, given their domestic mandates, (their) monetary policies will increasingly need to take account of spillbacks," he said.
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Manufacturing PMIs (purchasing managers' index) in Germany are at their lowest since the aftermath of the global financial crisis, with the spillovers of external demand slowdown and an associated decline in business investment evident across Europe.
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Rome, Bank of Italy and ECB holds research workshop "Macroprudential policy: effectiveness, interactions and spillovers" with Bank of Italy Deputy Governor Luigi Federico Signorini, ECB representative Carsten Detken, Bank of Italy representative Giorgio Gobbi (09003 GMT).
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Rome, Bank of Italy and ECB holds research workshop "Macroprudential policy: effectiveness, interactions and spillovers" with Bank of Italy Deputy Governor Luigi Federico Signorini, ECB representative Carsten Detken, Bank of Italy representative Giorgio Gobbi (0700 GMT).
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"Although the outlook is favourable, the authorities need to be prepared to address any negative spillovers from external developments and persevere with structural reforms to promote higher and more inclusive growth," the IMF said in a statement.
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While it expected Brexit spillovers to the euro area would be limited, it anticipated deterioration in some euro-area countries, keeping its forecast for the region to 1.5 percent and 1.3 percent for 2016 and 2017 respectively.
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"We're confident the Fed will steer the U.S. economy and financial conditions in a correct, positive way so that global spillovers would be quite minimal," Yoshinori Nakata, director-general of the BOJ's International Department, told a seminar.
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But Lagarde said spillovers from China's transition to a slower, more sustainable growth rate would continue to pressure oil and commodity exporters around the globe, increasing demands for financing help from the IMF and other international institutions.
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In the report Fitch economists explore the consequences of a much faster-than-expected pick-up in US wage growth and the impact on economic growth, Fed policy and bond yields as well as international macroeconomic spillovers.
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The Arsal region witnessed one of the most serious spillovers of the Syrian civil war into Lebanon when Nusra Front and Islamic State militants briefly overran the town of Arsal, abducting dozens of Lebanese soldiers and policemen.
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"These include disorderly market reactions to political or policy uncertainty in the euro area, further stress in emerging markets with possible spillovers to advanced economies and a sharp turnaround in U.S. macro-financial prospects," the ECB said.
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The Financial Stability Board (FSB), a body of regulators that coordinate financial rules for the Group of 20 Economies (G20), said leveraged loans warranted closer attention given the potential for spillovers into other markets if something went wrong.
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The report also found that there were no material losses incurred by important financial institutions and that spillovers to other markets had been very limited, suggesting banks and other players were getting better at dealing with such crashes.
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But the dollar was still used for at least half of international trade invoices - five times more than the United States' share of world goods imports - exposing many countries to damaging spillovers from swings in the U.S. economy.
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Nine more instances of levee breaches and spillovers have occurred farther downstream in Missouri and Kansas, including one near St. Joseph that was last topped in 1993, said Jud Kneuvean, the Corps' emergency management chief in Kansas City.
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Central banks around the world need to coordinate on monetary policy in order to combat shared challenges but they also need to act to prevent "monetary policy spillovers," European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said on Tuesday.
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"Although the immediate market volatility has subsided, the policy uncertainty and the ultimate financial and political spillovers may last for months or years, leaving markets vulnerable to further confidence shocks," it wrote in a quarterly review of markets.
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The prospect of subdued growth in advanced economies can also create negative spillovers for emerging Asian nations as weak exports weigh on the region's growth and inflation, the IMF said in a report on the Asia-Pacific region.
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While innovation in areas such as traditional satellites, government and military space applications is set to grow, the bank predicted the space economy will start to have major spillovers across other industries too — that includes satellite broadband internet.
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And any setbacks to commercial activity in China or the U.S., the world's largest economies, "would result in significant negative spillovers for the rest of the world through trade, confidence, financial and commodity-market channels," the Bank added.
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He added that negative market spillovers from Italy's recent budget tussle were so far limited, and argued that Rome's main problem was not high spending but weak growth, which can only be addressed through longer term, structural reforms.
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BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Commission has applied fiscal rules with excessive flexibility, making them ineffective in reducing debt in highly indebted states such as Italy, auditors said on Thursday, warning of risks of spillovers from negative market reactions.
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"August continued the trend of volatility in 2018 with a sizeable rout caused by spillovers from turmoil in Turkey sandwiched between relatively strong inflows to begin and end the month," IIF deputy director Emre Tiftik wrote in the report.
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"Although the immediate market volatility has subsided, the policy uncertainty and the ultimate financial and political spillovers may last for months or years, leaving markets vulnerable to further confidence shocks," it wrote in a report on the second quarter.
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In a similar manner, real GDP is not capturing the total effects of modern technology on our ability to communicate more rapidly and is not capturing the spillovers that this has — good or bad — on our communities and families.
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ING's van Vliet said the fall in the 10-year Bund yield was probably due to "fresh money at the beginning of 2018 that needs to be invested" and to "possible spillovers and hedging flows related to the issuance".
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Despite concerns about the spillovers to emerging economies from the Fed tightening its monetary policy and the threat of greater trade protection in the U.S. under President Trump, the latest data suggest that economic conditions in EMs are improving.
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WASHINGTON, April 4 (Reuters) - Global market spillovers from China's economic shocks will only increase in coming years as the country's financial influence grows and the yuan's use as a funding currency broadens, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday.
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"We are assuming that Boeing's production stoppage for the 737MAX reduces Q1 GDP growth by an annual rate of roughly 0.5pp, with some risks of bigger effects if there are spillovers from layoffs, etc," he noted, in an email.
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Even factoring the newly announced September 1 and October 1 tranches of China tariffs, and larger financial market and confidence spillovers, Oxford Economics expects the cumulative hit to US GDP to be limited to 0.6 percent, before policy offsets.
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But regulators worry that concentrating risk in this way means that the failure of a clearinghouse could have a major impact on the broader financial market, and they are seeking ways to minimize spillovers during times of financial stress.
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"Given its systemic importance, Italy is a source of potentially significant spillovers to the rest of the euro area," the EU executive said in an annual set of economic policy recommendations to Italy and the other EU member states.
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"Beyond the continued growth in importance of the Chinese economy, the size of financial market spillovers is also likely to grow because of the transition to a more market-based financial system and a decline in market segmentation," the IMF said.
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If you have a lot more workers coming back into the labor force and you have firms that are doing a lot more capital investment, that's a situation where there's some very big positive spillovers from the change in the policy.
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Because the stakes are so high and the spillovers significant, there has always been a public element to private property, said Susan Pace Hamill, a law professor at the University of Alabama who has written about L.L.C.s since the late 1980s.
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"Without fiscal adjustment to contain this debt build-up, increasing financing needs and sovereign risk would significantly raise borrowing costs, further crowd out growth-enhancing public and private investment, and weaken confidence, with adverse macro-financial spillovers," Monday's IMF report concluded.
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Environmental protections The agreement provides $600 million to address environmental problems in the region -- like sewage spillovers from Tijuana that impact San Diego -- and makes regulations easier to enforce by doing away with a requirement to prove a violation affects trade.
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"While Turkey does not reflect any endemic risk amongst emerging markets, there could still be some sentiment spillovers into (emerging market) currencies and risky assets in the near term," Chang Wei Liang, a strategist at Mizuho Bank, said in a note.
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The bank said recent mortgage rule tightening would dampen housing activity, and warned that a drop in house prices in Toronto or Vancouver could douse residential investment and consumption in those areas and have "modest direct spillovers" to the rest of Canada.
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"Skeptics may argue that these numbers are backward looking, and that spillovers from tighter financial conditions or the energy slump will curb labor market dynamics in the months to come," said Harm Bandholz, chief United States economist at UniCredit Research in New York.
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"Hong Kong's economic and financial linkages with China also give rise to potential negative spillovers from China in case of a rise in financial stress and, ultimately weaker growth, as such developments could adversely affect Hong Kong's economy and financial sector," it said.
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Growth in other emerging European economies is forecast to moderate to 3.7% and 3.1% in 2019 and 2020 respectively, owing to spillovers from the slowdown in more advanced economies on the continent and growth naturally contracting to sustainable levels after exceeding capacity.
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"Should significant problems arise in China or in EMEs more broadly, spillovers, including dollar appreciation, declines in world trade and commodity prices, and a pullback from risk-taking by investors outside the affected markets, could be sizable," said the Fed in its report.
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"Spillovers from wild animals will have occurred historically, but the person who would have been infected would probably have died or recovered before coming into contact with a large number of other people in a town or in a city," said Cunningham.
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In the developed world, the apparent lack of monetary policy coordination between the United States, Japan and Europe will also factor, insiders said, with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde urging G20 policymakers to think about the "spillovers" from their policies.
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"Skeptics may argue that these (JOLTS) numbers are backward looking, and that spillovers from tighter financial conditions or the energy slump will curb labor market dynamics in the months to come," said Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research in New York.
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"The trade frictions have had a limited impact on the Singapore economy thus far, but the negative spillovers could become more discernible in the latter part of this year and beyond," the Monetary Authority of Singapore said in its semiannual macroeconomic review.
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But the dollar was still used for at least half of international trade invoices - five times more than the United States' share of world goods imports - fueling demand for U.S. assets and exposing many countries to damaging spillovers from swings in the U.S. economy.
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But the dollar was still used for at least half of international trade invoices - five times more than the United States' share of world goods imports - fuelling demand for U.S. assets and exposing many countries to damaging spillovers from swings in the U.S. economy.
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And it leads Fryer to conclude with this powerful statement: Much more troubling, due to their frequency and potential impact on minority belief formation, is the possibility that racial differences in police use of non-lethal force have spillovers on myriad dimensions of racial inequality.
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As a result, market watchers expected portfolio outflows from Asia, which, along with potential new trade barriers from the U.S., could "constrain any positive spillovers (into Asia) from better U.S. growth or positive U.S. equity performance," according to Nomura analysts in a Monday note.
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"The G20 I think, is going to have to focus on spillovers, on spillbacks and on the combination of various policies in play at the moment," Lagarde told reporters after she was re-elected to a second five-year term as the crisis lender's leader.
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In its annual policy review of the 19-country bloc, the IMF said a further global growth slowdown could derail the euro area's domestic demand-led recovery, and further Brexit spillovers, the refugee surge, increased security concerns and banking weakness all could take their toll on growth.
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A trio of papers written by Fernanda Brollo of the University of Warwick, Katja Kaufmann of Mannheim University and Eliana La Ferrara of Bocconi University, and presented at the annual conference of the Royal Economic Society last month, examine the far-reaching spillovers of enforcing conditionality.
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The Dallas Fed president said more specifically that the world must adjust to lower growth in China in the coming years and sees potential negative spillovers for the U.S. That being said, Kaplan is optimistic about the U.S. economy and said it will be resilient in 2016.
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This obviously has spillovers into your own country, but also into other allies as well, so again, I wouldn't get hung up over the economics of all of this," Dwyfor Evans, head of Asia Pacific macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, told CNBC's "Squawk Box.
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"This does not take account of the impact on the banking sector ... the spillovers from the impact of the virus on other parts of the eurozone, or the potential supply-chain disruption if the virus really takes off in Germany and other key trade partners," he added.
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GiveWell, the charity evaluator that has recommended GiveDirectly as a cause for many years, opted to wait until another, bigger-sample-size paper came out testing spillovers from GiveDirectly instead of taking a side in that specific dispute, noting that new evidence could help resolve the disagreement.
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This gradual approach will give the Federal Reserve the opportunity to assess the effects of tighter financial conditions on the economy, evaluate the impact of policy decisions (regarding trade and the government shutdown in particular) on activity and more broadly monitor the spillovers from slower global activity.
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These discoveries led to new ways of preventing spillovers of infections into human populations: closing markets where wildlife is butchered for food,; putting bamboo skirts on sap-collection jars to keep bats out; or penning pigs and camels in places where they cannot eat fruit that bats have gnawed.
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"Given the size and global economic integration of the largest emerging markets - Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China, and South Africa, or the so-called BRICS - the simultaneous slowdown underway in all but one of them could have significant spillovers to the rest of the world," the report said.
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A brighter global outlook has tempered any adverse market reaction to the Federal Reserve's decision to raise rates twice in the last three months, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said on Wednesday, and the U.S. central bank's gradual approach should keep spillovers to foreign countries in check.
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"Given its systemic importance, Italy is a source of potentially significant spillovers to the rest of the euro area," the Commission said in its report, which also highlighted risks for the Italian economy from backsliding on efforts to cut state pension costs and an end to the bloc's easy money policies.
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" Still, Bank of America Securities' Sinha said: "I think people are looking at that as a case study, if you will, but the fact is 2003 was 17 years ago and i think especially in terms of Asia spillovers to the rest of the world, it is a very different time.
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This isn't an unheard-of result, either; Özler and coauthors found negative spillovers in terms of life satisfaction from a cash program in Malawi, and a recent World Bank study found that a cash program increased stunting of children's growth for households not getting the cash, a really serious negative spillover.
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Syrian insurgents briefly overran Arsal in 2014 in a battle that killed dozens and marked one of the more serious spillovers of the Syrian conflict into Lebanon "The army will not make the camps a facade for the terrorists," Oun was quoted as saying, without elaborating on the identity of the militants.
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"A gradual and ongoing removal of accommodation seems likely both to maximize the prospects of a continued expansion in the U.S. economy and to mitigate the risk of undesirable spillovers abroad," Fischer said in remarks prepared for a Wednesday event hosted by the International Banking Research Network and the International Monetary Fund.
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"Research by Federal Reserve staff suggests that, all told, U.S. monetary policy spillovers to other economies are positive — that is, policies designed to provide stimulus to the U.S. economy also boost activity abroad, as negative effects of dollar depreciation are offset by positive effects of higher U.S. imports and easier foreign financial conditions," she said.
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Overall, the budget suggests that the private sector will make up for these reductions, but it offers no plan to make that happen when the private sector does not get much of the return from investments with large spillovers and uncertain, longer-term payoffs — precisely the kind funded by the programs put on the chopping block.
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"Our best guess is that these estimates are likely to understate the overall impact, particularly in the event of a sharp slowdown in China, where the spillovers to other countries and through financial links would probably be larger than our linear model would suggest," the report written by Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and Kate Stratford at the BoE said.
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In addition to giving structure to Krueger's dissection of the finances of the rock biz, they provide launching pads for illustrating broader concepts like monetary spillovers (the ripple effect a festival has on its surroundings), sunk costs (the terms of most rookie artists' first record contract) and agglomeration economies (why Sweden, home of Abba, punches above its weight in music).
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That could force Italy's anti-austerity government to adopt a "sharp fiscal tightening" even if growth slows, with risks of spillovers into other euro zone countries, the Fund said, confirming a Reuters report last month The IMF also predicted inflation to remain far off the ECB's close-to-2% target at least until 2022, and forecast a 1.3% rate this year, in line with ECB estimates.
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In the minutes of its own June meeting, the Fed said it would keep interest rates firmly on hold until it got a handle on the consequences of Britain's vote to leave the EU. The ECB's minutes said that if Britain voted "Leave", "there could be significant, although difficult to anticipate, negative spillovers to the euro area via a number of channels, including trade and the financial markets".
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But even American negotiators who parse the trade versus tech issue this clearly tend to overlook an essential fact: The international trade and financial system that was set up after World War II — with the creation of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and, much later, the World Trade Organization (all nurtured and dominated by the United States) — actively encouraged "technological spillovers" from developed economies to developing ones.
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"While such an inversion has traditionally been an indicator of a recession, this time around it may be less about the prospects for the U.S. economy and more about spillovers from what is happening in Europe and the bond market there, together with the effects of the Feds surprising decision to be very dovish again with its unconventional policy tools," said Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz in Newport Beach, California.
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In Wisconsin, handing FoxConn $3 billion in taxpayer dollars — more than one-third of the workers' wages for 20 years — has fueled the local and national movement second-guessing tax incentives as a tool for economic development Tax incentives can help create good local jobs for residents, but only if scaled back, targeted to industries with the greatest spillovers for local job growth and coupled with local services to businesses and residents that increase local hiring.
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If you look at some of the research that's going on, I think one of the most interesting and important conclusions from that is that the negative spillovers from other parts of the world, if they go into recession and hit the zero lower bound, and monetary policy cannot be fully effective in bringing their economies back to full strength, the negative spillover is greater if the rest of the world is also getting pushed down to the zero lower bound.
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