The trend in the state legislative special elections look like the trend in the congressional special elections, too.
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Republicans have been on the defensive in special elections since Mr. Trump's victory, and special elections will soon fill two congressional seats.
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" On the special elections: "Well, the Special Elections are over and those that want to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN are 5 and O!
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Further, Democrats did similarly to how they have done in April and May 2018 special elections during October and November 2017 special elections.
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In fact, their overperformance in recent special elections has been about half as high as it had been in all special elections since January 2017.
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Indeed, the last time Democrats were doing so well in special elections, they didn't perform as well in the midterms as the special elections suggested.
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I'm just not sure I'd really use special elections to argue Trump is in danger, when looking at this year's special elections in their totality.
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But Walker refused to call those special elections, likely fearful of being caught in the Democratic wave that has carried recent special elections in other states.
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In special elections, the true margin of error for any individual poll in special elections since 2004 has been about +/- 13 percentage points with 95% confidence!
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Of the nine special elections included in Cook's calculations, Democrats over-performed the most in last year's Kansas race and this year's special elections in Arizona and Pennsylvania.
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Now, it should be emphasized that this is based off data in special elections held so far, so it could shift around as more special elections occur this year.
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Republicans, who said they simply wanted to avoid wasting money on needless special elections, backed down after courts insisted that they set dates for the special elections later this year.
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I think you'll see is some Democratic members of Congress appointed to the [Trump] administration and you may see some special elections in seats that may see some special elections.
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He pointed out that 2.773 of the special elections Democrats won were in districts that Hillary Clinton carried, and Republicans have flipped four special elections themselves in the past year.
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The good news for Democrats is that it's very early in the cycle with many more special elections to come and special elections are just one indicator of the political environment.
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After this coming week's special elections — two in Minnesota, and one each in Georgia and Oklahoma, in addition to the targeted Florida House seat— there are 33 already announced special elections.
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Furthermore, you could point out that special elections in the lead up to presidential elections aren't as predictive of those as special elections are in the lead up to a midterm.
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But it also vacated the lower court's order for special elections and sent it back to the panel for a new hearing on whether North Carolina should have special elections after redistricting.
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"Democrats are outperforming their historic norms in these past five special elections," a Brooks ally noted, citing House special elections that saw Democrats close the gap on Republicans in traditionally GOP seats.
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Still, special elections have been correlated with the midterm outcome since 1994, and the fall election in Wisconsin 1 will be an open seat like the special elections so far this year.
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Walker had asked that the Thursday deadline to call the special elections be moved, as the state legislature plans to take up a bill that would limit special elections in the state.
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We've seen in special elections nationally this cycle that the 2012 presidential vote patterns have done a better job at predicting the swing in the special elections than the 2016 presidential vote patterns.
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The special elections that Democrats won weren't exactly normal ones.
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The party fell short in several dramatic House special elections.
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Special elections typically received outsize attention on the national stage.
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Special elections take place in a given time and place.
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Republican candidates have been underperforming President Trump in special elections.
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Special elections could help switch party control of state legislatures.
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However, special elections in Mississippi are conducted without partisan labels.
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The latest polls and special elections tell us we shouldn't.
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Democrats earned wins in three other special elections, retaining control.
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The Democrats tried these themes in the four special elections.
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But the special elections allow us to be battle tested.
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Democrats also have a poor track record in special elections.
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Democratic momentum continues in state legislative special elections Democrats notched another win in state legislative special elections on Tuesday, the party's 43rd red-to-blue flip since Trump stepped into the White House last year.
|
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Democratic candidates have done surprisingly well in lower-profile special elections.
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Special elections sometimes serve as a bellwether for the general election.
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That's key, as turnout in special elections is typically very low.
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It's not all bad news for Democrats, though, in special elections.
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All five House members were elected in special elections last year.
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Still, the special elections have taken place in traditionally red districts.
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There are two more special elections scheduled between now and November.
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Here are recommendations in Tuesday's primary races and two special elections.
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Since then, polls have consistently underestimated Democratic candidates in special elections.
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Democrats' strong overall performance in special elections has continued this week.
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This is not the way most people think about special elections.
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Still, recent special elections offer reason for Democrats to be optimistic.
|
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But special elections differ from the midterms in two important respects.
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Despite money troubles, Democrats have been doing well in special elections.
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Democrats have sharply criticized Walker's decision not to call special elections.
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During North Carolina's special elections these truths were on full display.
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Democrats suffered through a losing streak in this year's special elections.
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Special elections point to the largest Democratic wave election since 22018.
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And turnout, never good in America, is even worse in special elections.
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Since Trump's election, two Republican women have also won special elections; Rep.
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Some of the special elections success reflects startup progressive groups rallying voters.
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Besides, special elections tend not to be predictive of midterm congressional races.
|
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I volunteered at a fundraiser for one of the many special elections.
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A few seats will be filled by special elections before next November.
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But that excitement has also extended to a series of special elections.
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But in other special elections, Democratic candidates did dramatically better than Clinton.
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We're also only looking at races without incumbents when examining special elections.
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That's in line with the special elections and individual House race ratings.
|
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Since November, Democrats in special elections around the country have outperformed Mrs.
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The same has happened elsewhere in special elections for state legislature seats.
|
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Look at the special elections compared to the Democratic baseline, for example.
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Recent special elections have shown Democrats more motivated than Republicans to vote.
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During the rally, Trump raised the stakes ahead of the special elections.
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Political elections, even special elections, often cost tens of millions of dollars.
|
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And Democrats have been consistently bettering their 2016 performance in special elections.
|
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It's often said that "special elections are special," and that's certainly true.
|
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And the media said, 'Hey, they should have won those four special elections.
|
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The story in these North Carolina special elections wasn't that Republicans won them.
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Special elections can produce freak results which get overturned a few years later.
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Recent decades provide us with many examples of overblown rhetoric around special elections.
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" A well-wired Dem emails me: "Waves don't show themselves in special elections.
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Let's be clear about what happened all of the special elections this year.
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"The actual [special] elections suggest little has changed from Election Day," Penn said.
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Democrats view the upcoming special elections as an early test of party strength.
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There have been nine special elections, eight of them the Democrats fell short.
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Democrats could easily recover in later special elections and on the congressional ballot.
|
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In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.
|
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This makes Arizona 8 unlike many other special elections since Trump took office.
|
|
But in special elections during the Trump era, a clear pattern has emerged.
|
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Turnout in special elections is notoriously low and outcomes are hard to predict.
|
|
Democrats won two big special elections in New Hampshire and Oklahoma last night.
|
|
So far in 2018, Democrats have overperformed in special elections and state elections.
|
|
And, more generally, strange results happen a lot more often in special elections.
|
|
Many ultralow-turnout special elections this year appear to have favored Democrats heavily.
|
|
Citing costs, Governor Andrew Cuomo declined to call special elections to replace them.
|
|
In primaries, special elections and local races, turnout is often in single digits.
|
|
During the 2017 to 2018 period, Democrats were crushing it in special elections.
|
|
The true margin of error is about +/- 10 percentage points for special elections.
|
|
This strains credulity given what happened in the special elections against the Democrats.
|
|
In turn, Democrats have seen historic turnout in special elections across the country.
|
|
The high-profile special elections over the last year provide some guidance, though.
|
|
I look at that fact we … That's in Georgia, the Georgia special elections.
|
|
Now part of the seeming shift is where these special elections have taken place.
|
|
Democrats quickly called for special elections, hoping to pick up seats, but Walker demurred.
|
|
Special elections, political operatives say, are like snowflakes -- each taking place in unique circumstances.
|
|
In 2004, Democrats were downright giddy when Republicans lost two seats in special elections.
|
|
Special elections in Montana and Kansas are also starting to trigger last-minute attention.
|
|
And after surprise wins in Alabama and Pennsylvania special elections, Democrats' map has grown.
|
|
Women are also making a big difference in special elections, where Democrats have overperformed.
|
|
Democrats mobilized for a series of special elections and then for the 2018 midterms.
|
|
Democrats have won in special elections across the country, even in deep-red states.
|
|
Early signs of a Democratic resurgence came in special elections in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
|
|
Historically, this has meant that polling in House special elections isn't all that predictive.
|
|
However, special elections have shown that once safely Republican districts might now be competitive.
|
|
Democrats have already secured victories in a number of special elections in recent months.
|
|
Gomez was the only Democrat to win one of this year's five special elections.
|
|
Since the Presidential election, Oklahoma has had nine special elections for state legislative seats.
|
|
Yet, keep in mind the sample size we're dealing with in special elections: nine.
|
|
Trump has been aggressive in backing Republicans in special elections and in GOP primaries.
|
|
And Democrats have been clearly outperforming in the special elections since Trump became president.
|
|
As in 1974, this year's special elections hold a warning for the Republican Party.
|
|
The group had success in Georgia and Montana's high-profile special elections last year.
|
|
Mehr decided to contest the special elections and found immense support from the farmers.
|
|
In particular, there are two big outstanding questions that the special elections can't answer.
|
|
It covers only about one-third of the special elections over the last year.
|
|
No wonder Republicans in Oklahoma have been faring so poorly in recent special elections.
|
|
Even in the most normal of times, special elections are extremely challenging to poll.
|
|
Democrats got their hopes up after overperforming in the Kansas and Montana special elections.
|
|
But Walker delayed calling special elections, until a lawsuit forced him to do so.
|
|
But since then, Democrats have lost four straight special elections in races for Congress.
|
|
Democrats have done startlingly well in special elections this year, often in conservative districts.
|
|
Third, pay attention to these two coming special elections to fill vacant House seats.
|
|
When parties do well in special elections, they usually do well in the midterms.
|
|
When they do poorly in special elections, they usually do poorly in the midterms.
|
|
In special elections, Democratic partisans have shown greater enthusiasm for turning out to vote.
|
|
Eric Trump on Sunday also pointed to the recent special elections swept by Republicans.
|
|
But above all, the estimates are uncertain because special elections are hard to forecast.
|
|
Two districts in North Carolina held special elections to fill vacant seats this week.
|
|
But in the aggregate, special elections are painting a picture of a building Democratic wave.
|
|
But if special elections are any indication, we're heading into a true contest this fall.
|
|
If successful, the special elections targeting Cannizzaro and others would likely hit around the holidays.
|
|
" 2020 Democratic candidate John Delaney: "If I was a Virginian, I'd want some special elections.
|
|
But then again, Democrats have repeatedly put into play historically Republican districts in special elections.
|
|
The Vermont senator argued that the recent special elections need to be put in context.
|
|
The party's best showings came in two Iowa district special elections in December and February.
|
|
All five U.S. House 2017 special elections in Republican-held districts stayed in GOP hands.
|
|
As special elections go, this is an earthquake that will have repercussions far into 2018.
|
|
Those broad contours match the stories that have played out in special elections all year.
|
|
Like other special elections in Kansas and Georgia, the Montana race has gained national attention.
|
|
Six House seats and one Senate seat were up for grabs in 2017 special elections.
|
|
It also points to its assistance in recent special elections to show it's on track.
|
|
In the past eight special elections, Democrats have overperformed by an average of 9 points.
|
|
Republican lawmakers praised the high court's action to throw out the order requiring special elections.
|
|
Polling special elections in the House is really hard, as Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight notes.
|
|
Like other special elections since Trump took office, the race has drawn sizable national interest.
|
|
But if special elections in the Trump era are any indication, voters are wising up.
|
|
But the special elections haven't taught us everything we need to know about the midterms.
|
|
Both seats are in the Athens area and both were vacant, hence the special elections.
|
|
What is that number for special elections that have occurred since November 2018, you ask?
|
|
Other presidents have been knocked off stride by special elections that ultimately presaged greater defeats.
|
|
But they said the same thing about the special elections that presaged the 2018 midterms.
|
|
On the other hand, there's something worrying about the special elections for O'Rourke as well.
|
|
An earlier version also gave an incorrect number for a case dealing with special elections.
|
|
We've already seen significant shifts on average in the special elections away from the Republicans.
|
|
This year Democrats have been outperforming the partisan baseline in special elections by double-digits.
|
|
Republicans have, however, managed to hold onto five House seats in special elections last year.
|
|
Walker faced a court-ordered deadline of noon on Thursday to call the special elections.
|
|
Special elections are often sleepy affairs that draw only die-hard voters to the polls.
|
|
Early on, special elections were far closer than anticipated, even in deep red South Carolina.
|
|
This year's special elections and national political indicators suggest that development is likelier than not.
|
|
Special elections are no longer just about filling open seats — they are referendums on Trumpism.
|
|
This suggests the Democratic swing isn't just a flukey dynamic of low-turnout special elections.
|
|
If you look at the last year in special elections, they've really moved toward Democrats.
|
|
In 20173 special elections since April 1, Democrats have been outperforming the partisan baseline based on the last two presidential elections (or just the 2016 election in two Alabama special elections because of a lack of data) by an average of only 6 percentage points.
|
|
Still, Republicans can point to special elections as a potential sign of improvement heading into 2020.
|
|
It's also a stretch to divine too much from the results of recent House special elections.
|
|
But in special elections, they have the luxury, by definition, of running in an open seat.
|
|
Facts First: The special elections in North Carolina were six weeks ago, not two weeks ago.
|
|
All special elections are on different turf and have different issues and candidate dynamics at play.
|
|
Professional politicos couldn't predict that Democrats would win 12 special elections for state legislatures in 2017.
|
|
And I want to get -- GOOLSBEE: And look at how the special elections have worked out.
|
|
But let's keep it in perspective: It's true that special elections can be nasty presidential bellwethers.
|
|
"We are just getting warmed up," Bliss said of the group's aggressive efforts in special elections.
|
|
The game in special elections, then, is not persuading voters who aren't sure about their views.
|
|
However, I will caution that with the fact that special elections are special for a reason.
|
|
If that analysis is true, Republicans are in more trouble than this year's special elections suggest.
|
|
We tend to overthink special elections, which get extra scrutiny because they exist in a vacuum.
|
|
That swing follows a pattern of Democratic gains in statewide and special elections since last year.
|
|
Democrats have also won several special elections in districts that had previously been safe for Republicans.
|
|
The special elections to fill the seats of President Trump's Cabinet members have attracted national attention.
|
|
CLF has been a big player in each of the key House special elections this cycle.
|
|
Democrats have outperformed in special elections, showing they can turn grass-roots energy into hard votes.
|
|
Among other things, that money went into special elections and field offices in 28 key districts.
|
|
Special elections pose major challenges of mobilization for all sides because they occur at irregular times.
|
|
Democrats were not able to win any of the special elections to replace Trump's Cabinet members.
|
|
Democrats can have their "moral victories" from closer-than-expected losses in red district special elections.
|
|
There were seven special elections in the House and one big one -- Alabama -- in the Senate.
|
|
Democrats have been greatly outperforming the partisan baseline in congressional special elections so far this cycle.
|
|
But special elections, particularly primaries, are notoriously hard to predict or model, adding to the uncertainty.
|
|
Democratic victories in a number of special elections nationwide since Trump's inauguration added to their concerns.
|
|
Special elections typically yield low, unpredictable turnout and the Tuesday contest will likely be no different.
|
|
For one, all of this year's special elections were open contests, without incumbents on the ballot.
|
|
Other recent special elections that in theory shouldn't have been close have been — Roy Moore vs.
|
|
But I've never seen one party go 20183/9 in consecutive House special elections this unimpressively.
|
|
And the answer of the special elections thus far seems to be fairly optimistic for Democrats.
|
|
Registering early each year ensures that you receive ballots for all primary, general and special elections.
|
|
The recent analysis of special elections by the Daily Kos Elections team is also worth reading.
|
|
Andrew M. Cuomo, who has broad discretion about when and whether to call for special elections.
|
|
Democrats have won three consecutive special elections in Miami-Dade County over the past nine months.
|
|
And they're underperforming in special elections, including a couple of special state-legislature elections this week.
|
|
In the special elections in Virginia, Alabama, and Pennsylvania, the Republicans performed poorly with women voters.
|
|
The findings about the midterms come as Democratic candidates are making gains in national special elections.
|
|
The Alabama state House voted Tuesday to end special elections for appointments to U.S. Senate seats.
|
|
Republicans kept three seats up for grabs during Tuesday's special elections, based on the preliminary results.
|
|
There's a lot of debate about how much weight to put on state-level special elections.
|
|
Democrats have had a great run of special elections in New Hampshire since Trump took office.
|
|
The entire Democratic machine was focused on 9 House special elections and they still went 1-8.
|
|
Still, both sides will be anxiously trying to read tea leaves in the next few special elections.
|
|
Even so, Republicans won four of in yesterday's five special elections in Iowa, South Carolina and Wisconsin.
|
|
In three out of four special elections this year, though, the news for Democrats has been good.
|
|
Since Mr Murphy's resignation in October, there have been 49 special elections to state legislatures and Congress.
|
|
In primaries (as opposed to special elections), President Trump's endorsement has proven to be a lightning rod.
|
|
It's one of four special elections to fill House seats vacated by President Donald Trump's Cabinet picks.
|
|
Friday's ruling now triggers a round of special elections to replace Park within the next 60 days.
|
|
Republican donors so far don't seem to necessarily mind, especially as special elections have demanded significant fundraising.
|
|
Democrats should not sugarcoat the failure of national Democrats to support Democratic candidates in three special elections.
|
|
Republicans have won all four of the four special elections that have been held under President Trump.
|
|
National Democrats did not lose the four special elections for House seats since President Trump was elected.
|
|
But an important reminder: What happens in special elections doesn't predict the outcome of a midterm election.
|
|
The main proposal here would create ranked-choice voting for primary and special elections, starting in 2021.
|
|
This past Tuesday we saw Democrats lose by over 50 points in two special elections in Arkansas.
|
|
As results from the primaries and special elections came in on Tuesday night, one pattern became clear.
|
|
They believe the president could help energize base voters who are critical in low-turnout, special elections.
|
|
We've seen this play out in primaries and special elections across the country since Trump took office.
|
|
Scott Walker (R) to call special elections in two legislative districts that have been vacant for months.
|
|
" In his own statement, Walker blamed Holder's group for forcing Wisconsin "to waste money on special elections.
|
|
It is the latest in a string of special elections Democrats have won in Republican-held territory.
|
|
Polling in special elections has been fairly accurate (though it too has underestimated Democrats a little bit).
|
|
It is the latest in a string of special elections Democrats have won in GOP-held territory.
|
|
By February of this year, Democrats had performed 173 percentage points better in 14 different special elections.
|
|
LEADING THE DAY CAMPAIGNS & POLITICS: There are still two unresolved contests from Tuesday's primary and special elections.
|
|
All of them are in more Democratic districts than the typical special elections of 2017 and 2018.
|
|
Democrats have won several statehouse special elections in Republican-held districts mostly around Tulsa and Oklahoma City.
|
|
The other two special elections will take place in another purple state, North Carolina, on Sept. 10.
|
|
Depending on when they step down, special elections will automatically occur or could be called by Gov.
|
|
They should expect a lot of close-but-no-cigar showings, just like this spring's special elections.
|
|
Like the eight seats such as Costello's, those special elections were open seats with no incumbent running.
|
|
The GOP has used Pelosi as a foil for years, including in special elections held in 2017.
|
|
"After the Democrats went zero-for-four in special elections, the delusions and fantasies continue," Gingrich said.
|
|
In both 20143 and 22014, Republicans were the ones who were outperforming their baseline in special elections.
|
|
And the special elections provide additional data points, though a final messaging strategy remains many months away.
|
|
Democrats have enjoyed strong turnout in all of this year's special elections, as well as in Virginia.
|
|
It seems likely that the same will be said for scattered upcoming special elections in other states.
|
|
Primaries and special elections are all about voter turnout and who energizes people to get to the polls.
|
|
They've lost four congressional special elections already this year amid heated intra-party debates on economics and abortion.
|
|
Democrats didn't capture special elections for House seats in Kansas, Georgia, Montana, South Carolina and, more recently, Arizona.
|
|
Eight state legislature seats flipped from R to D in special elections, with none going the opposite direction.
|
|
Democrats are energised by a national anti-Trump mood and because of their victories in state special elections.
|
|
The model will update every day to reflect new data from polls, special elections, economic indicators and primaries.
|
|
And between House elections, there are dozens of special elections held for vacant legislative seats across the country.
|
|
Two other Republican governors, Rick Snyder of Michigan and Rick Scott of Florida, are stalling on special elections.
|
|
Democrats' chances of flipping GOP House seats in 5 special elections, ranked So what does it all mean?
|
|
And yet sometimes, though troublesome, special elections don't quite mean disaster for the incumbent in the White House.
|
|
The North Carolina State Board of Elections has not yet set new dates for primary or special elections.
|
|
If the other three special elections looked anything like it, it's no wonder the Democrats lost them all.
|
|
Handel's victory means Democrats were unable to win any of the special elections to replace Trump's Cabinet members.
|
|
That means the national party isn't well positioned to play a supporting role in the House special elections.
|
|
It's doubly disappointing following losses in special elections for House seats in Kansas and Montana earlier this year.
|
|
In other words, what we may be seeing now in the congressional ballot and special elections is noise.
|
|
Democrats added to a string of special elections in which they easily outperformed recent results in red areas.
|
|
And if the recent special elections are any indication, suburban women are rewarding the party for its shift.
|
|
"It's clear that little thought was given to the impact of the special elections ruling," they went on.
|
|
These related factors have produced a consistent pattern in 2017 special elections — even the ones that Democrats lost.
|
|
At the same time, Republican candidates have underperformed President Trump's vote share in all but two special elections.
|
|
Both of the special elections were created when the incumbents were appointed to positions in the Walker administration.
|
|
Since Mr. Trump's election, Republican candidates have struggled in special elections, especially in suburban districts like this one.
|
|
We saw in a number of the special elections in 20163 and 2018 this exact phenomenon taking place.
|
|
Their strategy to ride the "outsider" wave of 2016 in the recent special elections was a complete failure.
|
|
In the most hotly contested special elections in 2017, the Democratic Party beat expectations almost across the board.
|
|
Special elections are telling Of course, none of the above matters if Ohio 12 was a one-off.
|
|
Trump will likely be a big factor in the election, as he has been in other special elections.
|
|
It's taking place in a year when we've already seen high Democratic turnout in special elections off cycle.
|
|
The move also led Wisconsin GOP leaders to abandon their bid to change state law on special elections.
|
|
This map shows the scenarios for the House races if the Democratic voter turnout resembles the special elections.
|
|
And it'll add to another unlikely victory after Democrats flipped seats in special elections in Alabama and Pennsylvania.
|
|
Yes, Democrats have won some special elections and those victories are real and should warn Republicans against complacency.
|
|
Also, in the special elections over the last two years, the G.O.P. spent millions to knock back Democrats.
|
|
The numbers get even worse as you go down the ladder to county, school board and special elections.
|
|
The real story here is that Democratic enthusiasm has been taking off in special elections across the country.
|
|
Polls close: 8 pm Central Not a primary, but Wisconsin hosts two key state special elections on Tuesday.
|
|
All special elections since Trump's inauguration have been declared a referendum on Trump by pollsters and the media.
|
|
House Democrats only reluctantly, and minimally, competed in special elections earlier in the year in Kansas and Montana.
|
|
In this spring's special elections, national Republican groups spent millions to prop up candidates in Republican-leaning districts.
|
|
The two sides locked swords this year in contentious special elections across the country, most notably in Georgia.
|
|
Indeed, turnout for Democrats has been high in a series of special elections that preceded the November contest.
|
|
Since Mr. Trump's election, Republican candidates have struggled in special elections, especially in suburban districts like this one.
|
|
The overperformance in special elections by Democrats is key to understanding the national environment heading into the midterms.
|
|
"You've now had five special elections where you see a significant movement toward the Democrats," Clifton told CNBC.
|
|
But Democrats' massive success in flipping statehouse seats in special elections this past year isn't happening by accident.
|
|
The same story applies to all of the special elections that have been held so far this year.
|
|
Further, last month Mr. Stivers asked asked the Republican National Committee for financial assistance with the special elections.
|
|
Two special elections that drew major cash infusions from around the country also added to Democrats' fundraising edge.
|
|
Here's a look at how the last the last special elections left on the calendar stand right now.
|
|
But Democrats are hopeful that their recent ability to outperform in special elections can make the race competitive.
|
|
Compared to the high-profile congressional special elections in Montana and Georgia, our efforts were under-the-radar.
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And in special elections for Congress this year, they failed to take back any seats held by Republicans.
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He is especially unpopular among women, who in this year's statewide and special elections have overwhelmingly supported Democrats.
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The case to dismiss the Kansas result will be better if Republicans fare well in coming special elections.
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But Democrats have already been doing well in state legislative special elections, in part because of strong turnout.
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Democrats may be right to say that the three special elections don't reflect the rest of the country.
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And though Democrats have lost some high-profile special elections in 2017, they've done well in lesser known races.
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Democrats' biggest successes in special elections thus far have come in deep-red constituencies like Alabama and western Pennsylvania.
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The 611 races analyzed includes six elections for each Senate seat, as well as a handful of special elections.
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From special elections over the past year, we know health care has been a powerful motivator for Democratic voters.
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A couple of Wisconsin's Republican state senators have expressed concerns about Mr Walker's proposed opt-out from special elections.
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Historically, special elections aren't revealing indicators of what is going to happen in the upcoming midterms or general elections.
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After President Obama won in 2008, Democrats felt pretty good in 2009 when some special elections went their way.
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Special elections can also offer clues into what is going on with the electorate -- but those clues are limited.
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Democrats, coming off strong showings in special elections in Kansas and Georgia, are optimistically trying to flip the seat.
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Democratic candidates' focus on health care in the special elections may be crucial harbingers of the upcoming 2018 midterms.
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He has proven to be a weight on Republican congressional candidates in two special elections in Kansas and Georgia.
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Special elections -- given their usually odd timing -- are almost always a battle of base intensity between the two parties.
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In 2005-06 special elections, Democrats lost three, only to gain 30 seats and the congressional majority in 2006.
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Conversely, in 2009-85033 special elections, Republicans lost three and gained 63 seats and the congressional majority in 2010.
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You look at the totality of these special elections and it&aposs concerning the fact that Democrats keep outperforming.
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They will combine this with unimaginable Super PAC spending, which we saw in all four special elections in 2017.
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But Ryan's efforts already helped stave off Democratic wins in a pair of special elections in Kansas and Montana.
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Trump in a second tweet accused the media of downplaying the Republican Party's record of success in special elections.
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Both the Pennsylvania and Alabama special elections featured some form of a disparity between candidates that helped Democrats win.
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The CLF made modest investments in lower-profile special elections in Kansas and South Carolina, spending a combined $100,000.
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And voters in New York City yesterday overwhelmingly voted to implement ranked-choice voting for primary and special elections.
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After all, Republican voters were already staying home in special elections before these bills were announced, let alone passed.
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The Republican efforts to prevent court ordered special elections from being held is the height of corruption and desperation.
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But Democrats have so far failed to convert that energy into an actual win in this year's special elections.
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All evidence from the special elections in 2017 suggests that pattern will continue to drive voters' decisions this year.
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Wins in special elections in Alabama, Pennsylvania and elsewhere have heightened their expectations -- and sent online fundraising totals soaring.
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The party is hoping to make early progress by scoring upsets in upcoming special elections in Montana and Georgia.
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Well, the Special Elections are over and those that want to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN are 85033 and O!
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It would also ensure that voters can participate in any special elections that are called to fill House vacancies.
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You can look at the special elections in 2017, note the Democratic defeats, and declare the party is doomed.
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But Frank, too, would represent a path for the party that none of the other special elections has presented.
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In most years, there are scores of special elections around the country to fill vacancies in statehouses and Congress.
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Nine special elections, all for state legislative seats, have taken place since Donald Trump was elected president in November.
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The whole reason these special elections were happening is that Trump had appointed sitting House members to his cabinet.
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Going back to 230, there has been no cycle in which Democrats were doing this well in special elections.
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A close race there would be right in line with what other special elections have been showing so far.
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We had more retirements than I would have liked, we had more special elections than I would have liked.
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This one -- like a spate of House special elections in 2017 -- looks like it could break optimistic Democrats' hearts.
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It's a continuation of the momentum they've been building on in special elections throughout 2017, most notably with Sen.
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One solution might be to estimate turnout using the 23 special elections, rather than the 22 midterm in Alabama.
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And what about re-establishing the Congress — how quickly can you mobilize special elections to fill all those seats?
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His forecast for November takes into account congressional election polling and special elections to Congress, and state legislative elections.
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Democrats have already won several deeply red state special elections around the country and come close in several others.
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Victories in the special elections are seen as encouraging better Democratic candidates to throw their hats into the ring.
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In Wisconsin, Governor Scott Walker refused to call special elections for two open seats formerly held by Republicans in the legislature until his hand was forced by rulings made by three different Wisconsin judges—just before the legislature was able to reconvene to pass a law preventing the special elections from happening.
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Special elections and primaries, too, have drawn attention from election analysts looking for clues about the attitudes of the electorate.
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Democratic candidates' focus on health care in the special elections may be a crucial harbinger of the upcoming 2018 midterms.
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Accounting for incumbency effects, the large Democratic edge in special elections translates to a small edge in the overall race.
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Electorates far more conservative than Wisconsin's First have already elected Democrats in special elections in Wisconsin and across the country.
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Special elections like these aren't primarily important because one out of 435 House seats could switch to the other party.
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Overall, the message from the early special elections of the Trump era appears to be a positive one for Democrats.
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Over the past few decades, special elections have become more and more tied to the popularity of the incumbent president.
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So what was once their emergency campaign playbook in tight special elections has now become the closing message to voters.
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During this election cycle, nearly 43 percent of Trump-endorsed candidates won their primaries or special elections – a powerful record.
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The New York state Senate will remain in control of the Republican Party despite two Democrats winning special elections Tuesday.
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RELATED: Democrats' chances of flipping GOP House seats in 5 special elections, ranked The seat is open because former Rep.
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The Democratic candidates in 6900 special elections ran very far ahead of the Democratic candidates in those districts in 2628.
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The Alabama House voted 67-31 to end special elections for U.S. Senate appointments, per the Montgomery Advertiser's Brian Lyman.
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Handel and Ossoff will compete in a June 20 runoff in the most closely watched special elections of the year.
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"These special elections can be flukey," Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the election analysis website Sabato's Crystal Ball, told me.
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History is behind them, including a strong precedent of opposition midterm gains and recent special elections revealing unusual GOP weakness.
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He proved the efficacy of that approach in the special elections earlier this year as well as in Ohio Sen.
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Democrats have now gone 0-4 in special elections in Kansas, Montana, Georgia, and South Carolina, and Republicans are gloating.
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They are outperforming the partisan baseline in both congressional and state special elections by double digits so far this cycle.
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Based on Cook's calculations, Democrats in the nine special elections it tracked outperformed expectations by an average of 8 percent.
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Still, Republicans are touting that they've won eight of the nine special elections where both parties were on the ballot.
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New York City voters will decide Question 1, which would implement ranked-choice voting in future primary and special elections.
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According to Nate Silver, Democrats have "outperformed their partisan baseline by an average of 17 points" in congressional special elections.
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DFA backed the Democratic nominees in Georgia, Montana and Kansas, which were special elections held to replace Trump Cabinet nominees.
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As Trump reminded the world on Twitter, the Democrats are now zero for five in special elections since his victory.
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And some candidates will inevitably run stronger, or weaker, than those who have run in the special elections this year.
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Democratic candidates have also dramatically over-performed in special elections, including Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania and Doug Jones in Alabama.
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Holder that Congress could no longer subject states with a record of race-based voter discrimination to special elections oversight.
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Democrats scored surprisingly well in special elections with low turnout such as Kansas' 4th district and South Carolina's 5th district.
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But keeping score in politics -- especially in special elections by simply tallying up wins and losses -- can miss the point.
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While Republicans vastly underperformed in the special elections compared to prior years, Republican Karen Handel still pulled out a victory.
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In special elections, the Senate race in Alabama and several gubernatorial races, the Democrats have turned out and produced wins.
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Democrats have performed well in special elections this cycle, particularly in states and districts that haven't gone blue in decades.
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Scott Walker to call special elections to fill two seats in the state legislature vacated by fellow Republicans last year.
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At the state level, Dayton has typically waited for legislators to officially resign before scheduling special elections to replace them.
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In last year's special elections, Republicans spent millions to prevent Democrats from getting over the top in deeply Republican areas.
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Three others had won special elections to complete their husbands' terms after they died, but none served a full term.
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Second, two House races — Georgia and Montana — had special elections in this election cycle, which were counted in the total.
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So far in 2018, Republicans have won a bare majority of special elections, 38 out of 75, according to Walter.
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These are all relatively small donations, as no one gave more than $6,000 total for the primary and special elections.
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But there are differences, too: Primary turnout is less volatile than in special elections, which often have ultralow voter participation.
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Already the DCCC is looking for ways to restrategize around the special elections and thread a needle between the divisions.
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Special elections can be quirky, at times presaging a coming political wave and in other cases carrying no great symbolism.
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Plus, Clinton ran significantly behind Barack Obama's numbers in all four states where there have been special elections so far.
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Four special elections will be held before November, and top Republicans will also need to find committee assignments for Rep.
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But the party still faces a tough path toward winning two other House special elections set for later this year.
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Democrats have reason for optimism in the special elections, and November's midterms overall, because of recent House special election results.
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This year's special elections have been heralded as a critical test of whether Democrats can retake the House next November.
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They are also buoyed by recent victories in state special elections including two last week in Connecticut and New Hampshire.
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They also said state law allows Walker to avoid calling special elections to fill vacancies created in non-election years.
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I went back and looked at how off polls taken within three weeks of House special elections since 2004 were.
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Tuesday's election recalled several other special elections that occurred in 2017 and 2018 in Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona and Ohio.
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Conor Lamb's successful race in Pennsylvania and Danny O'Connor's narrow loss in Ohio, both special elections that Trump waded into.
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Now, you could argue that we still have a small sample size of only three congressional special elections this year.
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Special elections are far from perfect in predicting future results, however, so we need to be humble about this projection.
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Further, a look at history suggests that special elections may be less useful for forecasting presidential elections than midterm elections.
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In theory, if you had enough special elections you could make a pretty good inference about the national political environment.
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Democrats have done pretty well in 2019 special elections, for example, but considerably worse than they did in 2017 and 2018.
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The Republican governor tried to bypass Nunez and the Democrats by calling for special elections on pet projects, with failing results.
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That produced Doug Jones in Alabama; that produced Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania in terms of the special elections that we had.
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Mr Scott, who like Mr Snyder is term-limited, is refusing to hold special elections for two seats in Florida's legislature.
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In fact, this year's special elections showed that vulnerability by the other side doesn't necessarily translate into raw votes for you.
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" Why special elections matter: "I don't believe the party will ever turn on Trump until Trump voters turn on the party.
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Daily Kos Elections reports that, as of May 2202, there had been 2628 special elections for Congressional and state legislative seats.
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And while congressional special elections get the most headlines, progressive groups are also turning their focus to state and local elections.
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"Yes, there were special elections we lost — but we outperformed," said Karine Jean-Pierre, senior adviser and national spokeswoman for MoveOn.
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He has also taken the credit for Republican victories in recent special elections, and for his preferred candidates prevailing in primaries.
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Trump's visit could give him a boost among the base, whose voters are critical in low-turnout races like special elections.
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House Democrats had heavily spent on other special elections where they believed they had a better shot at flipping a seat.
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The Democrats' current edge comes ahead of several special elections, including the upcoming June 20 election in Georgia's 6th Congressional District.
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Here are five key themes to watch over the next 100 days: Democratic performance in special elections Democrats are fired up.
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Primary elections It was another night of tight races and close calls in primary and special elections ahead of November's midterms.
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It has taken two to three weeks to certify and seat the winners of other recent special elections, such as Sens.
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What if it just means that these were two special elections that tell us nothing about Trump's appeal in the fall?
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Special elections in New York are notoriously inside jobs, with party leaders routinely picking new people as bad as the old.
|
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Despite almost all special elections having national implication over the last year, this race has largely flown under the national radar.
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And while Congressional special elections get the most headlines, progressive groups are also turning their focus to state and local elections.
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Go deeper: Blue districts have higher uninsured rates and more poverty Wave watch: How the special elections could predict the midterms
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Walker is required to issue an order no later than next week Thursday for special elections within the next 11 weeks.
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Republican attacks on health care, not lurid scandals, seem to have been the biggest factor behind Democratic victories in special elections.
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While special elections do not always reflect the national pulse, Bishop's victory could be an early indicator for the 2020 elections.
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For Democrats in 2018's long-shot districts, the 2017 special elections provided some hope — at least on the financial front.
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The party out of power has generally won the Virginia governor's race, and Republicans have underperformed in this year's special elections.
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The special election signal You might think that the special elections so far this cycle are a good sign for O'Rourke.
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New York City also recently voted to begin using ranked-choice voting in local primary and special elections starting in 2021.
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Dems face decision on MontanaAfter Kansas and Georgia, national Democrats will feel pressure to get involved in the remaining special elections.
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CORRECTION: This story has been updated to correct the date of the primary and special elections for the Ward 2 seat.
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Last week, a Dane County judge appointed by Walker ruled the governor had to call special elections to fill those vacancies.
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You'll note that there is a clear correlation between the average overperformance of Democrats in special elections and the midterm outcome.
|
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If voters do that, as they have already done in special elections, signs are positive for a major realignment in Washington.
|
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Following Lamb's victory, election analysts give the party a better chance of winning upcoming House special elections in Arizona and Ohio.
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The results in Georgia and other special elections, he said, should encourage Democrats to campaign across a huge map of districts.
|
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Republican groups, alarmed by the intensity of liberal voters during special elections this year, have been pouring millions into the state.
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Montana's and Georgia's special elections will provide a test before the midterms and the NRCC has poured resources into both races.
|
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So far, the president has been a cheerleader for Republicans running in special elections since his own election back in November.
|
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Regardless, the result of this most special of special elections is food for thought as we accelerate into the 2020 campaign.
|
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The turnout for the North Carolina special election, like most special elections, was exceptionally lower than elections typically held in November.
|
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Overall, Trump's re-election hopes are still not great, and the special elections this year haven't been bad news for Democrats.
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This has been a pattern in all of this year's major special elections, as well as in the Virginia general election.
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At the time Walker refused to schedule the special elections, which many speculated was out of worry that Republicans might lose.
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Any one race can be an outlier, but this Kentucky race -- along with the more than 90 special elections that have been held since Trump became President -- tell a clear story: Democrats are outperforming their baselines by a significant enough margin in special elections so far as to be favored to take back the House in November.
|
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Part of what drove the Democratic strength in the 2017 and 2018 special elections was relatively large turnout among the Democratic base.
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"This is a very good turnout in unusual and special elections which nobody expected," Polish news agency PAP quoted Dulkiewicz as saying.
|
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Here's a look at the five special elections set for this spring -- ordered from most to least likely to change hands: 1.
|
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But like the special elections revealed, making those contests closer may not be enough to covert customary Republican seats into Democratic gains.
|
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Opposition to Trump has invigorated the left, and Democratic candidates have already ridden that unprecedented energy to unexpected victories in special elections.
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Democrats have done well in special elections—those held to fill vacancies that arise during a term—and lead strongly in polling.
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The state has also been ordered to hold special elections in 2020 for affected Senate districts, instead of 2022 as currently scheduled.
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Despite the liberal establishment's best efforts, Republicans have won seven out of the last nine special elections since President Trump took office.
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RELATED: Democrats' chances of flipping GOP House seats in 5 special elections, ranked Still, Ossoff is facing major fire from the right.
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Many Democrats are frustrated by four straight losses in contested special elections, including a high-profile, expensive defeat in Georgia on Tuesday.
|
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Trump policies are so unpopular that Republicans in Congress are distancing themselves from the president and several special elections are in jeopardy.
|
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Democrats have repeatedly transformed special elections in what are otherwise safe GOP districts into dogfights over the past year and a half.
|
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Still, younger members disappointed by the November results and the recent slate of special elections have said it's time for new leadership.
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Turnout for special elections is typically unpredictable and polls for this race have been all over the map headed into election day.
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Recent elections, including special elections this year, have not yielded campaign dividends and may have generated blowback for Republican candidates attacking immigrants.
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Also, holding the special elections after the conclusion of the regular session is a waste of taxpayer dollars and local government resources.
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He then hit Democrats for their winless stretch in special elections this year to replace Trump nominees who vacated solidly red seats.
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This creates danger for America, disaster for Republicans and extraordinary opportunity for Democrats that is proven by special elections across the nation.
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Republicans, eager to defend Trump's presidency, want to put a stop to a string of strong performances by Democrats in special elections.
|
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Yet, Democrats were only outperforming the partisan lean in these districts by 6 points -- significantly less than the special elections would indicate.
|
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The court's ruling would require special elections for the state Senate in 2020, rather than 2022, when they would otherwise be held.
|
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The party has so far overperformed in special elections this year, combining suburban and more moderate voters with a supercharged Democratic base.
|
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The high court, with no recorded dissents, sent the case back to the lower court to reconsider whether special elections are necessary.
|
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Democratic optimism about the 2018 midterms reached crescendo levels this winter after improbable wins in special elections in Alabama and western Pennsylvania.
|
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But after showing a ton of promise in special elections across the country, they might finally be ready to get this right.
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When they didn't win special elections in places like Kansas, they significantly overperformed (for the most part) what Clinton did in 2016.
|
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To fully comprehend what special elections mean for the national political environment, it's best to look at a lot of different elections.
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We've already seen in special elections so far this cycle that Democrats have been mostly outperforming the presidential tilt in red states.
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Scott Walker's (R) request for a weeklong extension to call two state legislative special elections as Republicans race to change the law.
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Natural, even: After voting in the presidential primary, voters in districts with special elections must ask for a second ballot to participate.
|
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Republicans have used Pelosi's name and image to campaign against Democrats in the wake of GOP wins in special elections this year.
|
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The combination of both factors in these special elections may be painting a darker picture for Republicans than a fuller analysis warrants.
|
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House District 6 Georgia's Sixth Congressional District, north of Atlanta, was the site of one of 2017's hardest-fought special elections.
|
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In the 2017 and 123 special elections, the minority party in Congress has easily exceeded its 2016 performance, according to NBC News.
|
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The internecine dispute over where to play could last well beyond this season of special elections and into the 2018 midterm elections.
|
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In two special elections, in Kansas and Georgia, Democrats failed to translate Trump's historic low approval ratings into wins for their candidates.
|
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Democrats have been overperforming in special elections since last year, with their most recent upset victory in last month's Pennsylvania special election.
|
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Her victory Tuesday is the latest in a series of Democratic victories in special elections across the country over the past year.
|
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Over the next seven months, Democrats have the opportunity to win House seats in special elections in Georgia, Montana and South Carolina.
|
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Even after a string of surprise Democratic wins in recent special elections, a blue victory seems far off in the 2023th District.
|
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As we have already seen in special elections, his message will have an impact on both vulnerable incumbent members and candidates running.
|
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These and other matters of state provide the backdrop for special elections that Democrats have surprisingly won and Republicans have surprisingly lost.
|
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These results confirmed that boosting turnout, primary election persuasion, and perhaps persuasion in special elections are possible, especially with a skilled organization.
|
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Under Reynold's ruling, Walker must call the two special elections by next week with votes likely to take place in early June.
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House Republicans have lagged consistently in the generic ballot and performed even worse than those poll numbers would suggest in special elections.
|
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Democrats, energized in opposition to the Trump administration, have overperformed in high-profile special elections in Virginia, Alabama, and now Pennsylvania's 18th district.
|
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More special elections will help to clarify how much the president's unpopularity is hurting his party; the past four have been slightly bizarre.
|
|
Health care has already shown itself to be a powerful motivator in turning out Democrats in key special elections in Pennsylvania and Arizona.
|
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The GOP nominees in both special elections have taken different positions on the bill, which has repeatedly polled at below 28503 percent support.
|
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The Supreme Court's decision leaves open for the lower court to conduct a new hearing on whether the state should have special elections.
|
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Special elections usually generate lower turnout, with the election's scheduling on the Thursday before Memorial Day Weekend set to reduce turnout even further.
|
|
In the special elections for House seats vacated by Republicans who wound up in President Donald Trump's Cabinet, Democrats went 20183-for-4.
|
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The negative press coverage of the tour is precisely what Democrats didn't need after strong showings in special elections in Kansas and Georgia.
|
|
We've seen Democrats do very well in a lot of special elections (though less so recently) in some not-so-friendly places (e.g.
|
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Also, shareholders would not be able to call special elections to remove board members, according to Starboard's reading of DepoMed's proposed rule changes.
|
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The ballot's passage will allow the city's voters to begin using ranked-choice voting in local primary and special elections starting in 2021.
|
|
In all the special elections to follow, Dems have to do appreciably better than they have been doing in these neglected areas. Sen.
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Republicans, who have spent far more freely on special elections this year than have Democrats, will face a more even financial playing field.
|
|
Most previous special elections in congressional districts across the country so far this year have shown Democrats tightening margins in typical-GOP areas.
|
|
Rob Quist, the Montana Democrat endorsed by Sanders, was the only candidate in this year's House special elections to run on that platform.
|
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Except... Democrats have won only two of those special elections, in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District and in Alabama for the Senate last year.
|
|
Those analyses have been conducted, and confirmed what we already know: special elections in and of themselves aren't very good national political bellwethers.
|
|
But unlike those special elections, Tuesday's Virginia race was a stronger litmus test of how a swing state could play out for Democrats.
|
|
Republicans poured money into the district after a hot streak from Democrats in recent special elections, although the district wasn't expected to flip.
|
|
But after blowing the first four special elections since Trump's victory, Democrats have been searching desperately for an election to feel good about.
|
|
In special elections, Democrats won two state legislative seats that had long been held by Republicans, though Republicans held onto a third district.
|
|
Primaries occur in almost every jurisdiction in the country, while special elections (particularly if analyzed without adjusting for population) are often deeply unrepresentative.
|
|
Special elections only tell you so much, but tonight's wins bring Georgia Democrats that much more hope of winning a year from now.
|
|
Md. N.Y. –40 Vt. Hawaii By The New York Times | Source: Alan Abramowitz, Emory University | *Special elections were held in Minnesota and Mississippi.
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All that said, the basic message of these special elections is entirely consistent with a polling outlook that looks bad for the GOP.
|
|
Meanwhile, congressional Democrats wary of making any bold statements against leadership are waiting for more data on the special elections before passing judgements.
|
|
Nearly a dozen special elections are being held around the U.S. this year to fill seats suddenly left open by the #MeToo reckoning.
|
|
Varying rules govern the 19943 states that hold special elections, but few bestow more influence on local power brokers than New York does.
|
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Even though the district favors Republicans, special elections are low-participation affairs; a strong ground game by Democrats could upend the usual outcome.
|
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In both the Bilbray and Critz instances, the races were significantly different than the average swing other special elections were showing that year.
|
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Republicans have already been forced to spend nearly $20 million on special elections trying to save a handful of conservative-leaning House districts.
|
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Walker has avoided calling special elections in two state legislative seats formerly held by Republicans who quit to take jobs in his administration.
|
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Conservative commentator Ben Shapiro said that the results in recent special elections show that 2900 could be "very, very ugly" for the GOP.
|
|
Democrats have been making significant strides in state legislative special elections around the country where they've flipped a number of GOP-held seats.
|
|
And that is when those special elections aren't overshadowed by the sorts of dramatic presidential and mayoral races that have consumed voters' attention.
|
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There was just one hitch: two Senate seats that had previously been occupied by Democrats will be decided on Tuesday in special elections.
|
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And on Tuesday night, two more Democrats joined the ranks of the Senate, after winning special elections in Westchester County and the Bronx.
|
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The special elections As I pointed out on Monday, the federal special election held before Pennsylvania 18 showed Republicans in a poor position.
|
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Democrats have a poor track record of turning up at midterm and special elections, and the June runoff comes during peak vacation season.
|
|
With last night's losses in Georgia and South Carolina, Democratic House candidates are zero-for-four in special elections against Republicans this year.
|
|
The election in Georgia's Sixth is only the latest in a string of special elections where Democrats have turned out in impressive numbers.
|
|
Since that roll call, Republicans have won three special elections — in Montana, Georgia and South Carolina — adding a trio of reliable GOP votes.
|
|
In the sessions from 1911 to 1913 and 2023 to 1933, Democrats lost but eventually took control due to resignations and special elections.
|
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Under the bill, governors in the state would also not be able to have special elections less than four months after a vacancy.
|
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Regardless of the final outcome, the race fits a pattern of Democrats outperforming 2016 results in House special elections since Trump took office.
|
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The party outperformed 2016 results in multiple pro-Trump areas in House special elections last year, but failed to win any of them.
|
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Well, if you are looking at just electoral response, I mean, from the congressional special elections we've seen before, we've seen miraculous stuff.
|
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Rather, together, the two special elections are a strong indication that both major parties are going to need to do some soul searching.
|
|
While the backlash to Barack Obama built slowly over the course of 290, Democrats did fine in all the special elections that year.
|
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Democrats already have a few chances to test their new theories -- with special elections coming for seats vacated by Republicans nominated to Trump's Cabinet.
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In the meantime, they're also supporting special elections candidates like Arizona's Hiral Tipirneni, who lost by just five points in a deeply red district.
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We're in a weird position where we've got six — well, we'll have a total of seven special elections in the year 2017, so far.
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The primary results had some good news for President Trump and the Republicans, as opposed to some of the special elections earlier this year.
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So it should come as no surprise that Democrats are already landing substantial wins on health care in this cycle's special elections thus far.
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LOTTER: I never put a lot of stock into special elections in the middle of summer, right before people are going back to school.
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Caveats: 'The Resistance' has invested money and energy into these special elections, juicing the turnout for races that would otherwise be more largely ignored.
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Republicans had to spend big to hold on to House seats up for grabs in special elections in Kansas, Montana, Georgia, and South Carolina.
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With special elections to replace Trump's newly appointed Cabinet members in the rearview mirror, Virginia will be the next big prize for both parties.
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And something that should give organizers, living off leaks of the Russian investigation, special elections and Stormy Daniels' Twitter feed — something worth holding onto.
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This year's special elections may be overrated predictors of how the 2018 campaign will play out, but reports like these should give Democrats heart.
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Walker rejected calls to hold special elections before November's midterms, saying they'd be a waste of money given the legislature will adjourn in May.
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It's easy to see why Democrats in particular, and the national media in general, have put so much stock in the aforementioned special elections.
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In the special elections held in the state so far, Democrats have had a difficult time doing better than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
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While Democrats have looked to recent special elections to gauge shifts in GOP-leaning districts, Virginia's primary will test whether progressives aligned with Sen.
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Both candidates face the challenge of all special elections: raising money and putting together an organization very quickly and outside the usual election calendar.
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Along with the evidence of special elections and higher turnout, the Democratic advantage in registration bodes well for the party's chances in the fall.
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Democrats have largely been playing defense, using victories in congressional and state legislative special elections to make passing legislation a little tougher for Republicans.
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Beginning in 2021, voters will be able to rank candidates in order of preference, rather than picking only one, for primaries and special elections.
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All in all, Democrats have flipped eight state legislative seats in special elections since Trump won the presidential election, while Republicans have flipped none.
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The intensity of the disapproval for Trump has translated to a significant enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans in midterm polling and special elections.
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If you examine previous special elections this cycle and their relation to only the past presidential vote, O'Connor should be considered a slight favorite.
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Bolstering their optimism, Democrats have won some unexpected races in special elections in Alabama, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, in part with the DNC's help.
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But low-turnout special elections are notoriously unpredictable, and GOP analysts say heavy spending by Strange's establishment allies has left him within striking distance.
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So far in 28503, Democrats have won a handful of state legislative special elections in Republican-leaning districts in Kentucky, Florida, Missouri and Wisconsin.
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The #MeToo RacesNearly a dozen special elections are being held in 2018 to fill vacancies left by lawmakers accused of sexual harassment or misconduct.
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Take the measure often used to discuss the special elections: the extent that Democrats are running ahead of their performance in recent presidential elections.
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In an article in State Politics and Policy Quarterly, I examine what happened when Virginia added party labels to their special elections in 2000.
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The special elections have followed a similar pattern: the 2012 presidential vote baseline has been far more telling than the 2016 presidential vote baseline.
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There were special elections right around this time of year where the majority party candidate won, which sent off a false signal of security.
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The Georgia and Kansas special elections attracted national attention, so that level of fundraising and outside spending won't be the norm for most races.
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Democrats, who had sued to force Walker to call the special elections, celebrated the ruling and jabbed at the governor for dragging his feet.
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One early test will come in the special elections in Montana and Georgia, where Democrats are hoping to score early victories and build momentum.
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They see a series of special elections in which Democrats have run strongly in Republican bastions as evidence that momentum is on their side.
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The generic ballot, the president's approval rating, recent special elections and a seat-by-seat look all point to a modest edge for Democrats.
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Like 2006, we shouldn't expect Democrats to win the national House vote by nearly as much as they over-performed in the special elections.
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After a string of close, yet ultimately unsuccessful, attempts to win Republican seats in GOP special elections, Democrats are asking if not now, when?
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But Walker has been reluctant to call the special elections after Democrats won another vacant seat in a heavily Republican district earlier this year.
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To boot, you'd expect Lamb to win about a third of the time given how other special elections have gone during the Trump presidency.
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But before the cycle gets into full gear, the party is defending the vacated seats of President Trump's Cabinet members in several special elections.
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It's the same way the Democrats' loss in some special elections before the 2018 midterms was actually a harbinger of good news for them.
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While Jones is an underdog in the race, he has a fighting chance to win because special elections are notorious for low turnout numbers.
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The state of Alabama is considering a bill to eliminate special elections for Senate races, after a special election in December cost $11 million.
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Rick Saccone by a 51 percent to 45 percent margin if turnout matches the Democratic enthusiasm seen in special elections during the last year.
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Similarly, the polls, if anything, underestimated the Democrats in the gubernatorial elections of 2019 and special elections over the course of 2017 and 2018.
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On the other hand, this adds to a lengthy list of special elections in which state legislature seats have flipped from Republican to Democratic.
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This is one reason why Democrats and Republicans have been pouring money into this year's special elections and already looking ahead to November 2018.
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As the two most high-profile national special elections barrel toward their conclusion, Democrats in both races have homed in on Republicans' health care bill.
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He pointed to his efforts in the 2018 midterms and in 2017 and 2018 special elections, saying he campaigned in 68 races across 22 states.
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Given the overall environment, and Democratic performances in prior special elections, election forecasters like Cook have rated the 12th special election as a toss-up.
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And that fear will only be exacerbated by sweeping Democratic victories in Virginia's elections, and overall strong Democratic performance in 2017 and 2018 special elections.
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And we&aposve been seeing this throughout the course of all these special elections, and now through the primary season where Democratic turnout is up.
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On average, Democrats are outperforming Hillary Clinton by 10 percent in special elections in 2017 and 2018, according to an analysis by the Daily Kos.
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THE Democratic wave that propelled the party to surprise victories in special elections in Alabama and Pennsylvania seems unlikely to reach Arizona's eighth congressional district.
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Usually, special elections just tell us what's going on in a specific district or what the dynamics are between the candidates in the individual contest.
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Flippable — which has had success fundraising for other successful state legislative special elections earlier this year — has raised over $150,000 for their five endorsed candidates.
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Ryan's allies cite the off-year fundraising totals that are keeping pace with last year's — and the 4–0 special elections record — as encouraging signs.
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It was the best shot the party had of the four House special elections this spring to win a seat that now belongs to Republicans.
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The strategist is also watching special elections and the president's approval rating, which in the past has been correlated to party performance in midterm elections.
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Don Beyer started a #StandWithNancy hashtag trend on Twitter Wednesday afternoon to combat anti-Pelosi sentiment following four consecutive Democratic losses in recent special elections.
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In this year's special elections for open House seats, Democrats ran an average of 8% better than they usually do in those deep-red districts.
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The district tilts heavily Republican, but as in other recent special elections, Democrats are hoping for an upset fueled by displeasure with President Donald Trump.
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Special elections depend on a number of factors specific to the local electorate -- and historically are not very accurate predictors of who wins the midterms.
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Trump during a Wednesday rally slammed the Democrats for their recent losses in Congressional special elections and the media for being clueless about Republican victories.
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Democrats also lead the generic congressional ballot and have been running competitively with GOP candidates in House special elections in districts once considered safely Republican.
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In federal and state special elections, there has generally been a higher correlation with how a district or state voted in 28 than in 493.
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For all the controversy Trump has generated, this year's special elections occurred with the backdrop of a solid economy at home and relative calm abroad.
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In seven of eight relevant special elections held over the past 18 months, the Republican candidate has underperformed President Trump's 2016 share of the electorate.
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The lack of substantial public polling has made it hard to judge who's ahead in the race, complicating the typically unpredictable nature of special elections.
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Lamb was the first, and so far only, Democrat to flip a House seat out of the seven special elections held during Donald Trump's presidency.
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The state recently went through an education funding debacle created by Republicans, so Democrats have been winning special elections in far more Republican seats downballot.
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Republicans have won three special elections in a row — in Kansas, Montana, and now Georgia — which will likely help their party's recruitment, and hurt Democrats'.
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The Supreme Court in January put the matter of special elections on hold while it decided whether to hear the state's appeal of the ruling.
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Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) on Sunday said she wasn't predicting that Democrats would win any of the contested congressional special elections held this year.
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But in this year's general election, the races that most closely resemble last year's special elections have received far less attention and far less money.
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But the special elections showed that an open race in a Republican-leaning district can be pretty dangerous for the party in this political environment.
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And elections, both state elections like Virginia's and special elections for Congress, keep showing that trying to roll back coverage is a big political loser.
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So far this year, as I've noted in this newsletter before, Democrats have fared very well in special elections — flipping statehouse seats around the country.
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That enthusiasm has been apparent in special elections this cycle, and reflected in a record number of women candidates who are outperforming their male counterparts.
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The western Pennsylvania district has proven reliably Republican, but recent strong performances in special elections at the federal and state level have made Democrats optimistic.
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Democrats aim to leverage Trump's low approval ratings and recent successes in state and national special elections to win majorities in the House or Senate.
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Those busted endorsements suggest that for all his mystical connection with his base, Trump is not necessarily an asset for GOP candidates in special elections.
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McCarthy said he has "not asked" any lawmakers to relinquish their committee seats, but noted the value of those spots given the upcoming special elections.
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In special elections, Republicans have been struggling to retain vacant seats even in solidly red districts, as the Trump effect starts to take a toll.
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While special elections typically convince few voters to head to the polls, the outsized attention on the Georgia special election has led to booming turnout.
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And in recent years, Republicans have excelled in special elections because they've done well among the older and reliable voters who dominate low-turnout elections.
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Democrats have substantially improved on their 2016 presidential margins in almost all of the major special elections this cycle, flipping seats in Pennsylvania and Alabama.
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While some of them have been replaced by GOP successors in special elections, many of the seats will be vulnerable to Democratic takeover in November.
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As I noted on Monday, the congressional special elections in 2015 and 2016 weren't predictive at all of what happened in 2016's presidential election.
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The tax argument also gives Republicans a way to tie Lamb to Pelosi, a popular Republican tactic that's proved successful in special elections this cycle.
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So Mr. Khan now has to relinquish four of his five seats; special elections will be scheduled in the coming months to fill the vacancies.
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It's an admission Democrats elsewhere have been hesitant to make in a series of House special elections in deep-red districts over the last year.
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In Wisconsin, hints of a Democratic landslide have already appeared in state special elections, in which Democrats picked up two previously Republican-held state seats.
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The good thing about special elections, though, is that since there are a lot of them, you don't have to generalize from just a few.
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Citing Democratic turnout in recent special elections, Mr. Walter said Republicans should use the next nine months to sound the "alarm bells" for their voters.
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In truth Mr Ossoff's performance, like those of Democrats in special elections in Kansas, Montana and South Carolina, was encouraging for his party, given the terrain.
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This is a sign that more liberals could turn up to the polls for the highly anticipated 2018 midterms and other special elections happening throughout 2017.
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In fact, although Democrats won just two of the seven special elections to the House and Senate in 2017, they outperformed expectations in all of them.
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Jones became the first Democratic senator to represent Alabama in 20 years and also became the first Democrat to succeed in 2017's Congressional special elections.
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Top Dems see the new message as the key to turning things around after their losses in the presidential race and this year's House special elections.
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In 6900 and 2628, Republicans Jean Schmidt and Brian Bilbray won nail-biter special elections in Ohio and California, months before Democrats reclaimed control of Congress.
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GREEN PARTY SPOILER CANDIDATE IN OHIO SPECIAL ELECTIONS CLAIMS TO BE DESCENDED FROM ALIENS Foster started his campaign in March, six months after his DUI arrest.
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So Special Elections, there&aposs a microscope on the race so the dynamics are a little bit different than you know an actual Midterm Election race.
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House Democrats' fundraising comes as the party looks ahead to the 2018 midterm elections and hopes to turn special elections in Montana and Georgia into upsets.
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The party is already feeling emboldened by the momentum in the special elections and the fallout from the GOP's controversial bill to repeal and replace ObamaCare.
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Trump himself continues to be unpopular, and Democrats have been buoyed by several unexpectedly competitive special elections in conservative districts, like the one Tuesday in Kansas.
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Since Trump's election, Democrats have flipped eight GOP-held seats at the state level, and Republicans have yet to flip a seat in 27 special elections.
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The four 553 special elections for open Republican House seats muffled the full implications of that trade-off because they all occurred on Republican-leaning terrain.
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He also boasted that the GOP is 5-0 for special election victories, though of the five special elections held so far, Democrats retained former Rep.
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Wisconsin Republicans signaled Friday that they will hold a special election to change election law rather than face special elections in two heavily Republican legislative districts.
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"I have nothing but the utmost respect for Nancy Pelosi," he said, despite recent criticism of the minority leader after several Democratic losses in special elections.
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And the media will shift its focus from the special elections back to policy, lawmakers said, even as the Russia investigation continues to dominate the headlines.
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In the eight federal special elections so far, Democrats have been running an average of over 15 points ahead of their partisan baseline in each district.
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In fact, the recent special elections witnessed higher numbers of women (and minority women, in particular) both running for office and voting against the status quo.
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And Democrats have voted in extraordinary numbers in the special elections held the past year, despite Republicans holding on to win almost all of these races.
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After a standoff between Republicans and Democrats over whether yesterday's contests should occur at all, Republicans won all three special elections for open state legislative seats.
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Yet the energy and enthusiasm that Democratic voters have shown in primaries and special elections this year suggests Democrats have a real shot at regaining power.
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Based on what we've seen in special elections and in Virginia last year, it wouldn't even take much of a wave to make this race competitive.
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The resistance spurred an unprecedented level of interest in special elections, swinging seats across the country, and powered Democrats to sweeping wins in the 2018 midterms.
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Republicans in Florida have experienced several setbacks recently in special elections, as traditionally Republican-friendly voters have deserted the party in heavily suburban and Hispanic areas.
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Here's one that CNN Political Director David Chalian rattled off: They've won special elections in Trump country -- the Alabama Senate race and a Pennsylvania House district.
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Still, Democrats have been winning special elections by massive margins over the past six months, with candidates routinely beating Hillary Clinton's results by 10-30 points.
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Democrats lost all four congressional special elections that took place in the first half of 2017, thanks in part to a massive influx of dark money.
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The state held two special elections in 2019 — one of which was precipitated by an apparent ballot-fraud scheme — before undergoing court-prompted redistricting in November.
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But the special elections are also reviving the discussion over a sore subject: the question of whether Clinton was a worse candidate than many Democrats thought.
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Democrats are already heeding that advice, encouraging their base to turn out in this year's special elections in what had been assumed to be Republican districts.
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Further, Democrats have actually been doing even better than that 13 point overperformance looking at only the seven federal special elections held during the Trump presidency.
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Alabama news outlet AL.com reports that a bill being considered in the Alabama state House would completely eliminate special elections for Senate races in the state.
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Scott Walker's (R) request to push back a deadline to hold special elections for two vacant seats in the state legislature, Wisconsin Public Radio reported Tuesday.
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We're likely to see two special elections in the 27th, a first round on June 30 and a probable runoff in late August or early September.
|
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Even though Democrats didn't win any special elections this year, they feel emboldened by the current political environment to make major gains in next year's midterms.
|
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When you average across the three congressional special elections this year, you see the Democrats are outperforming their 2016 presidential baseline by less than 5 points.
|
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Lamb leads Saccone by a 26.1 percent to 233 percent margin if the turnout matches similar Democratic surges in other recent special elections, according to Monmouth.
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If Democrats do better than their 2016 baseline in many special elections, that is far more concerning for Republicans than if they outperform it in one.
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Two closely watched special elections for House seats in Kansas and Georgia provided signs of renewed hope for Democrats, but Republicans averted disaster in both cases.
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In recent weeks, Democrats have accused Mr. Walker of wanting to avoid any more ominous signs by putting off special elections for two other vacant legislative seats.
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"Special elections are getting much more nationalized and better reflections of the national partisan mood than they have been," said Matt Grossmann, a Michigan State political scientist.
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A trickle of Democratic victories in special elections—including some astonishing ones, like the capture of a Senate seat in Alabama last year—have bolstered that view.
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The plan worked well during the 2016 cycle and, because we never left these states, was a big reason the Party went undefeated in four special elections.
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Trump remains extremely unpopular, and special elections across the country indicate Democratic voters are extremely energized to kick Republicans out of office — a reality Ryan's retirement reflects.
|
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Dems are also pouring resources into upcoming House special elections in Georgia and Montana, where they believe they have a chance to flip longtime GOP-held seats.
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This comes after Republicans lost ground in special elections last week in Wisconsin, Idaho and South Carolina, on top of the Virginia and Alabama losses last year.
|
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"It does seem like Democrats are not going full bore on opposition to healthcare in these special elections," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball.
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Even when you lose, special elections can offer an opportunity to try out a message and a window into the strengths and weaknesses of the opposing party.
|
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There were 20183 special elections when President Obama ran, and each of those 21 when you average it out, Democrats underperformed Obama&aposs numbers by 7.9 points.
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In the big special elections since Trump took office, Democrats have been able to raise massive amounts of money, but the donations have not resulted in victory.
|
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The rising strength of the Democratic Party, on display in last year's special elections, will force Trump and many other Republicans to return to right-wing populism.
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The system will be used only in primary and special elections and will apply to elections for mayor, comptroller, public advocate, borough president and the City Council.
|
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An early national clash Special elections held over the last year have been marked by big spending from Republican groups and virtually nothing from the Democratic side.
|
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Special elections typically have low turnout, and scheduling this vote the Thursday before a holiday weekend isn't the best time if you are looking to maximize turnout.
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Democrats cannot count on outperforming their polls even if the generic congressional ballot is not showing the same shift toward the Democrats as the special elections have.
|
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Because Democrats haven't been able to win one of the more high profile GOP-held House seats in a series of special elections so far this year.
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Scott Walker (R), as the party looks to ride the momentum from recent wins in special elections for state legislative seats and a state Supreme Court seat.
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It's part of the left's war on the right MORE, who argued that Walker's refusal to call special elections denied voters their right to representation in Madison.
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"I would caution us from extrapolating too much from a bunch of special elections and starting to think, 'OK, this will take care of itself,'" he said.
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The race will gauge whether Democratic enthusiasm, which scored the party wins in special elections and control of Congress last year, remains, or if it has waned.
|
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Lesko remains a heavy favorite, but given how Democrats have overperformed in special elections the past year, this race should be closer than most would normally expect.
|
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President Trump has focused on energizing his base, which has so far energized Democratic voters even more, as seen in turnout at special elections the past year.
|
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Trump also touted GOP wins in special elections earlier this year, saying Republicans are "5 and 0" despite all the "fake news" and "money spent" by Democrats.
|
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One would have already expected it to be more competitive than usual given Republicans' poor performance on the generic ballot and in special elections throughout the year.
|
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Cuomo called the April 24 special elections to fill 11 vacancies in the state Assembly and Senate, which opened up after lawmakers won other offices last year.
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In special elections since President Trump took office, Democrats have consistently outperformed Republicans compared to the parties' usual vote totals in regular elections, AP's Bill Barrow reports.
|
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On Tuesday, New Yorkers voted to implement ranked-choice voting in primary and special elections, allowing them to rank their top five candidates in order of preference.
|
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Special elections in Virginia and Alabama gave renewed hope to the Democratic Party, and the question of how to secure the millennial vote is a central concern.
|
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With President Donald Trump's approval ratings tumbling, according to most surveys, a few special elections could foretell what type of fate he'll face during next year's midterms.
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There were no wild, outlying results, even though there were more individual legislative contests in Virginia and New Jersey than in all of this year's special elections.
|
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There have been two special elections for Wisconsin State Senate seats in 2018, both in districts Trump won by large margins and both won decisively by Democrats.
|
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On Tuesday, Democrats in New York won special elections for two vacated Senate seats, giving them, in theory, a one-vote majority in the 63-seat body.
|
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As part of a larger wave of Democratic wins on Election Day 2017, Democrats picked up two seats in special elections held for Georgia's House of Delegates.
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While these special elections are often held up as proof that a blue wave is building, they remind us exactly how big that wave has to be.
|
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You don't want to speculate too confidently off special elections, but Democrats in Wisconsin have to feel good about what they've seen at the ballot box lately.
|
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A particular wrinkle in Mississippi's election laws — a provision for special elections without party labels — makes this outcome somewhat more likely, even if still a long shot.
|
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The process left such a bad taste that she introduced a bill to guarantee voters a say in special elections every legislative session for the last decade.
|
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Political observers are paying close attention to special elections across the nation this year as potential harbingers of what may happen in the midterm contests in 2018.
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Republicans hoped to break the Democrats' 53-47 majority, but they won just one of four special elections for House seats on Tuesday, The Associated Press reports.
|
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Republicans are favored to win Montana's lone congressional district, but the party isn't taking any chances after close special elections and has already dropped cash into Montana.
|
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And they argue that if Democrats fail to produce any victories in this year's special elections, it'll prove that the talk of a wave is mere froth.
|
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Rather, the district has become a magnet for major donors who see special elections as a harbinger for what is to come in the midterm congressional election.
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One of the most interesting trends in the previous special elections in 2017 and 2018 is how the results correlated with the 2016 and 2012 presidential results.
|
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At a press conference on Wednesday, Cuomo denied that Cynthia Nixon's primary challenge inspired him to act, instead pointing to state special elections in a few weeks.
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To the Editor: The left is starting to get the message after four congressional losses in special elections: We have met the enemy and it is us.
|
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So far, Republicans have chalked up single-digit victories in Montana and Kansas special elections to replace other House Republicans tapped by Mr. Trump for his cabinet.
|
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Now that most of the national attention has turned to Montana, national Democrats are also getting involved after strong showings in both Kansas and Georgia's special elections.
|
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Scott Walker (R) will call special elections to fill two vacant legislative seats after two courts ruled against his efforts to delay and eventually cancel those elections.
|
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In late November, after the election, the trial court ordered special elections in 2017, about halfway through what would ordinarily be two-year terms for state legislators.
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Democratic special election candidates running in red districts have outperformed compared to previous years in 2017's special elections, but the party still hasn't flipped a seat.
|
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Famous actors, musicians and athletes are all coming out in droves to offer a boost to candidates — mostly Democrats — running in special elections or the 2018 midterms.
|
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The storm threatened turnout in two special elections taking place on Tuesday, but state election officials have been working to ensure that voters can reach the polls.
|
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In the 20163 special congressional special elections between the start of Trump's presidency in 2017 and the 2018 midterms, they were outperforming their baseline by 12 points.
|
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Lesko's initial 14-point lead has shrunk in recent weeks, though polls have shown wildly varying results — reflecting the difficulty of polling in low-turnout special elections.
|
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Wisconsin Democrats just picked up a Republican-held state legislature seat in special elections on Tuesday, serving yet another wake-up call to Republicans in the state.
|
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The basic pattern of errant judgment — not, I think, because of malfeasance but simply because predicting the future is hard — came from last year's House special elections.
|
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The party improved its performance but has still fallen short of winning three straight special elections in Kansas, Georgia (which goes into a runoff in June), and Montana.
|
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All the Fake News, all the money spent = 0 Trump gloated over Republicans' victories in special elections, including the June 20 GOP victory in Georgia's Sixth Congressional District.
|
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If we consider them to be on the side of the Democrats here, that leaves six or seven more (depending on timing and special elections) needed to turn.
|
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Democrats have been winning long-shot special elections in places like Alabama and deep-red southwestern Pennsylvania, and they have enthusiasm on their side heading into the midterms.
|
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Voters who were underrepresented in the 2016 election have been voting in higher numbers in every subsequent election, often making the difference in special elections and the midterms.
|
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DEMOCRATIC enthusiasm—defined not just by voter turnout but also by the number of candidates—has defined this year's primary elections, as it did last year's special elections.
|
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The GOP gained ground in each of those special elections (without winning), foreshadowing the 2010 midterms when Republicans picked up 63 seats and took control of the House.
|
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The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has poured in about $5 million more, investing several times the amount it contributed in the recent special elections in Montana and Kansas.
|
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" Trump tweeted a thank you to Fox News, saying: "Well, the Special Elections are over and those that want to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN are 5 and O!
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Trump would be standing here today with a perfect record on contested special elections, a strong stock market, low unemployment and momentum heading into the tax reform debate.
|
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Even in special elections, where turnout is unpredictable and normal rules don't apply, the districts are conservative enough that Republicans could very well win the three remaining seats.
|
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The activity from big-money interest groups on both the right and left underscores the national attention on the special elections as the Georgia race comes into focus.
|
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During the rally Wednesday evening, Trump also slammed the Democrats for their recent losses in congressional special elections this year and the media for not predicting Republican victories.
|
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At the same time, the unsuccessful Democratic candidates in these special elections have vastly outperformed the party's nominees who ran in these same districts just eight months ago.
|
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But while Democrats suffered a setback in a Virginia state House race in early January, their candidates boosted their vote share in the other seven contested special elections.
|
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"Even though Republicans have not fared well in special elections so far this cycle, it does look like they will be turning out for the midterms," Salvanto explained.
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The voting for the special elections could be complicated by a state Supreme Court decision that ruled the state's past electoral map was illegally gerrymandered to favor Republicans.
|
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However, Democrats lost special elections in Montana and Kansas earlier this year, so a third loss would raise doubts that the party can compete in historically conservative areas.
|
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The special elections of 230, as well as the primary contests for the gubernatorial elections that will be held in November, have been revelatory on several different levels.
|
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That change was decided on Tuesday, when New Yorkers overwhelmingly approved a ballot proposal that will transform how primary and special elections are held in the five boroughs.
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In other words, Democrats aren't doing any better in special elections over the last two months than the generic congressional ballot would suggest that they should be doing.
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Tipirneni appeared to have lost by significantly less than Trump's margin of victory in the district, continuing a trend in special elections since Trump won the White House.
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If you were to construct a 95% confidence interval from House polling in the final three weeks of special elections since 2004, it would be +/- 13 percentage points.
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She pointed to special elections this year in Georgia and Kansas, where Republicans have faced closer than expected races, in arguing that resistance to Trump has already started.
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The GOP has won both special elections so far for red seats vacated by Trump nominees, despite Democrats performing better in those districts than they did last year.
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Ohio voters have picked the major party nominees for the latest in a string of House special elections with implications for control of the chamber after November's midterms.
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On Tuesday, New Yorkers passed a ballot measure implementing ranked-choice voting in primary and special elections — a dramatic shift that could have big implications for future elections.
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Whatever. The point is that the mess of state primaries, special elections and runoff races is finally over, and the final stretch of the midterms has officially begun.
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On April 24, two special elections are expected to give Democrats a numeric majority in the Senate, though Mr. Felder's defection would allow Republicans to continue to rule.
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Historically, the party out of power often runs far ahead of recent presidential performance in open seats, just as Democrats have in 2017 and 2018's special elections.
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"Sure, special elections are more favorable to large swings than House generals, but if there were ever a sign that some 'Safe' seats aren't that safe…" Voting rights.
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The special elections held so far — including Democrats' surprisingly strong showings in Georgia and Kansas — have helped encourage better Democratic candidates to throw their hats into the ring.
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For instance, if there's a Democratic surge like there has been in recent special elections, Monmouth put Lamb with a 51 percent to 45 percent lead over Saccone.
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But in four contested special elections in Republican districts — including two, in Kansas and Montana, featuring Sanders-style insurgents — neither method provided the party with a breakthrough victory.
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Finally, Rosselló vowed to initiate special elections as part of his "Plan Tennessee" to vote for federal senators and representatives; promising that statehood was right around the corner.
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If ever there was a year for Democrats to pull this off, 2018 is it — as the special elections of moderates in Virginia, Alabama and Pennsylvania have shown.
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But Democratic candidates in special elections for vacant House seats in more forbidding territory — including Arizona, southwestern Pennsylvania and South Carolina — have performed strongly since President Trump's inauguration.
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Mr. Estes said he hoped his victory would set the tone for the other special elections to replace members of Congress who took jobs with the Trump administration.
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The reason that they're having special elections is that President Trump chose their congressmen, Mike Pompeo of Kansas and Tom Price of Georgia, to serve in his administration.
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Anger at President Obama was the determining factor in the 2010 midterm elections and Democrats did much better than the norm in each of that year's special elections.
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Four seats in Georgia, South Carolina, Montana and Kansas have since been filled by special elections after the previous representatives left to become members of the Trump administration.
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The answer probably hinges on the next few special elections: Republicans won't turn on Trump unless he has become such a political liability that he must be dumped.
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Walker told an audience at an event Wednesday night hosted by the conservative radio station WTMJ 2628 AM that he will call the special elections for June 28503.
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Voters in the city overwhelmingly approved Ballot Question 1 on Tuesday, enabling voters to begin using ranked-choice voting in local primary and special elections beginning in 2021.
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Special elections tend to stand on their own, and there are reasons to think that Democrats have a better chance than the district's voting in congressional races suggests.
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Republican state senators in Wisconsin are reportedly hoping to pass a bill regarding special elections that would allow for legislative districts in the state to have yearlong vacancies.
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While the group has spent heavily in those special elections, it has also built out a field program that has 31 offices in congressional districts across the country.
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Other recent special elections, like the race of Georgia's 6th District House seat, have had booming turnout thanks to a strong push by both sides for the seat.
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And, like in other special elections, the president got involved by recording a robo-call and tweeting his support for Lesko hours before the polls closed on Tuesday.
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We've seen how this can energize voters in the special elections that Democrats have already won, and in the incredible over-performance by Democratic voters across the country.
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Consequently, Democrats managed to flip four state legislative seats in special elections last year and for the first time in years have hopes of winning a statewide race.
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Though Republicans have prevailed in the special elections held to fill posts vacated lawmakers who have joined the administration, they have caused a collective headache for the party.
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Trump remains extremely unpopular, and special elections across the country indicate that Democratic voters are extremely energized to kick Republicans out of office — a reality Ryan's retirement reflects.
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Eastern, also became the first Democrat to succeed in 2017's Congressional special elections, with the exception of California's 34th district, which only had Democrats contending for the seat.
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In addition, four seats in the House and Senate flipped from Republican to Democrat in special elections in 2017, suggesting similar dynamics may be at play in both states.
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So far, special elections in places like Georgia, Kansas and South Carolina have shown the needle tilting away from Trump, but not enough to lose him any Republican Congressmen.
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So far this year, a handful of special elections in the US have gone smoothly, but the threat from Russia still looms, especially as the 2018 midterm races approach.
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You can't deny that there is a different dynamic when you're talking about special elections, but I do think they are generally reflective of the sentiment of Oklahoma voters.
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As early voting began on Saturday, voters in New York City were offered a ballot question to decide whether to implement ranked-choice voting in primaries and special elections.
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In truth Mr Ossoff's performance, like those of Democrats in special elections in Kansas, Montana and South Carolina, was encouraging for his party, given the terrain (see chart below).
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"While special elections have costs," they "pale in comparison to the costs to voters of a racial gerrymander," a federal panel of judges in North Carolina wrote in November.
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Montana Republicans have also taken a page out of the party's playbook from earlier special elections this year and linked him to House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).
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If I were the GOP, which now has won four special elections since the fall in Republican strongholds by significantly smaller margins than are customary, I would be concerned.
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While Democrats are bullish about many of their 2018 House prospects, in these four special elections, the Democratic bench was pretty thin compared to the lineup that Republicans fielded.
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But there have also been plenty of special elections that foreshadowed nothing, such as the Democratic victory of former Representative Mark Critz from Western Pennsylvania in May of 2010.
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The money comes as Democrats look to flip the seat once held by President Trump's Interior secretary, Ryan Zinke, following two surprisingly close special elections in Kansas and Georgia.
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Every race in the country is now a referendum on his presidency, evidenced by the huge swings we've seen toward the Democrats in special elections in Kansas and Georgia.
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In recent months, Democratic candidates have won stunning and unexpected victories in special elections in every region of the nation, in districts that Republicans typically win by landslide margins.
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Sanders-endorsed candidates running in special elections in Kansas and Montana both fell short — though they both proved more competitive against Republicans in their districts than previous Democratic candidates.
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A super PAC with ties to the House GOP leadership that helped carry Republicans to victory in four competitive special elections this year has even bigger plans for 2018.
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They appear confident about their prospects amid enthusiasm from Democratic voters, strong results in recent special elections, and poor approval ratings for the GOP tax and health-care plans.
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Democrats need to grab at least 24 seats next year to regain the House majority — a number that could change depending on the outcome of five upcoming special elections.
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Brooks told The Hill after the story's publication that Republicans need to make the right choice in August because Democrats have been outperforming historic results in recent special elections.
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She won, as handpicked party hacks in special elections usually do, and thus has a leg up on the primary election in September and the general election in November.
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The proxy statement filed by the company earlier this week notes that the move will make it more difficult for shareholders to call special elections for their fellow investors.
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Our findings show an engaged Democratic electorate actively participating in politics at higher levels than their Republican counterparts, consistent with reports nationwide of heavy Democratic turnout in special elections.
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Trump has been willing to play ball by backing leadership's picks in special elections this year, but if Strange can't pull ahead, he could deliver Trump his first loss.
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On Tuesday, South Carolina will have to share the spotlight as voters in both states head to the polls in two of the final special elections in the country.
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Democrats are now dusting themselves off after a tough string of losses in this year's special elections, with the party left frustrated by Democrats' lack of a single message.
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When you look at all (not just presidential) recent elections for which TargetSmart could provide data, Balderson became the slight favorite based on how previous special elections have gone.
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" Hedging on Georgia race: "Historically, special elections don't generally foretell the outcome of races multiple years down the road... This is a district the President won by one point.
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He referenced so-called sanctuary cities and "open borders," which he says Democrats support, in his closing arguments for GOP candidates in special elections in Alabama, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
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Dems flipped two very pro-Trump districts in special elections last night, There was a 28-point swing to Dems in NH. A 31-point swing in OK. pic.twitter.
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Indeed, anger about education cuts has helped fuel something of a blue ripple in this Republican-dominated state, with Democrats flipping four legislative seats in special elections in 2017.
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But in states with party registration, the Democratic registration advantage in 2017 special elections was about five percentage points higher among special election voters than among all registered voters.
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The health care issue — more than Trump's firing of Comey — has dominated Democratic messaging in the special elections, which have been held in districts where Trump remains relatively popular.
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And throughout 2017 and early 2018, Democrats generally did very well in obscure special elections, only to do somewhat worse in big races that attracted a ton of attention.
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Consequently, the actual outcome of these special elections — showing that Democrats are not doomed to Clinton-level performances in white working-class areas — is good news for the party.
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Australia's Parliament is exceedingly weak at the moment, having spent months booting out members for being dual citizens, leading to special elections that could force a change of government.
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The role of the Democratic County Committee, the lowest rung of party governance in the state, is to choose local judicial candidates and the Democratic nominee in special elections.
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One-off elections are not always good predictors of what comes next, but the mid-term results in 2018 were in line with the special elections that preceded them.
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But on Wednesday morning — even after two critical Democratic victories in special elections on Tuesday — Mr. Cuomo was still one vote short of turning the Senate to Democratic control.
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But the results are a reversal from 2017 and 2018, when Democrats picked up dozens of Republican-held seats in special elections in districts Trump carried by huge margins.
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Already, Republicans have spent millions on House special elections in strongly conservative areas of Pennsylvania and Arizona, losing one seat and retaining the other by a relatively narrow margin.
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Democrats have now outperformed their 2016 results in House special elections since Trump took office in typically red pockets of states such as Pennsylvania, Montana, South Carolina and Kansas.
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No matter how you cut it, none of this year's special elections clearly fall in the first category of easy targets for the Democrats, even in a wave election.
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Two special elections for the Westminster Parliament took place, one in a Midlands constituency named Stoke-on-Trent Central, the other in Copeland in Cumbria, near the Scottish border.
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The trend in special elections during Trump's presidency Democrats have so far been outperforming their presidential baseline by about 183 points in Trump-era special state and federal elections.
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WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Tuesday blocked a trial court's ruling ordering special elections in North Carolina that would have truncated the terms of many lawmakers in the state.
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Republicans and Democrats will face off a few more times in special elections this year, following a special election schedule that has seen Democrats make gains in Republican districts.
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After all, hints of a Democratic landslide in 2018 showed up in Wisconsin state special elections early this year, when Democrats picked up two previously Republican-held state seats.
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The special elections have only proven a partially useful test case, given that none of the House Republican candidates who won actually had to cast a vote on its behalf.
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In Republican-held districts in both states, Trump also campaigned for GOP candidates in special elections earlier this year, with the party narrowly winning in Ohio and losing in Pennsylvania.
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In special elections, the party has failed to flip districts where they are plentiful, such as Georgia's 6th and Ohio's 12th (though it did register impressive gains in both races).
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It places a heavy weight on performance in special elections, particularly those for federal congressional seats held within a year of the vote, in which Democratic challengers have fared well.
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Along with politicized nonprofit groups, which don't disclose donors, such outside groups now routinely spend more than the candidates themselves in the highest-profile races, such as recent special elections.
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However, the variables it used to make its prediction—primarily national polls, results of special elections for vacant legislative seats and economic conditions—have remained within a very narrow range.
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Of course, special elections do still matter in that they can impact the public perception of party leaders, and that can influence what they do in relationship to President Trump.
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But after a series of surprisingly strong performances by Democrats in recent special elections in Pennsylvania and Alabama, fueled in part by opposition to Trump, Republicans are taking no chances.
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The GOP's push to repeal and replace ObamaCare has spilled into the special elections in Montana and Georgia, creating showcases for how the healthcare bill could shape the 2628 midterms.
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It also calls into question whether Democrats can sustain the energy fueling the party's anti-Trump resistance after losses in four consecutive special elections -- including Kansas, Montana and South Carolina.
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In special elections for House seats vacated by Republicans who wound up in Trump's Cabinet, Democrats have gone 0-for-4, losing races in Georgia, Montana, South Carolina and Kansas.
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The next two House special elections are both on June 20, when both Georgia and South Carolina voters will head to the polls to replace seats left open after Reps.
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But Ohio's 12th Congressional District is the most affluent and well-educated in the state, home to the kinds of voters Democrats have over-performed with in recent special elections.
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"Special elections are difficult to poll in most instances because pollsters may struggle to nail down the shape of the electorate — specials traditionally have lower turnout than midterms," Skelley said.
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Though Republicans have held onto four GOP districts with special elections this year, Democrats have displayed renewed energy by running closer in those districts than they have in the past.
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Beyond that, an analysis of the special elections and Federal Election Commission records over the past year reveal that Democratic candidates have been getting more bang for their campaign buck.
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Democrats are seeking to make the special elections a referendum on President Trump's first several months in office, while hoping strong performances could provide indicators for the 2018 midterm elections.
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While the DCCC focused heavily on boosting Democrat Jon Ossoff in the nationally watched race in Georgia, candidates running in special elections in Kansas and Montana got less financial help.
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Special elections tend to be low-turnout affairs, and the Alabama Secretary of State's Office has already downgraded its turnout forecast from 25% to 20%, citing exhaustion with the race.
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"While special elections are special and I don't think you can build too much into what happens in this race, I feel pretty good," Stivers said of the Georgia runoff.
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Put this on the list of reasons that the Republican Congress is so unpopular with the American people and has performed so poorly in a growing number of special elections.
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The Virginia and New Jersey governor races, the first big statewide races (except for special elections) after President Trump took office, are being watched to gauge the nation's political mood.
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The upset in Alabama follows the Democratic Party's victories in statewide elections in Virginia and strong showings in special elections that they narrowly lost in Georgia, Montana, and South Carolina.
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Why it matters: Although the district is deep red and isn't expected to flip, this counters the trend of high Democratic turnout and depressed GOP turnout in other special elections.
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In the fall of 2015, special elections were held to fill a state legislature seat after the serving legislator was found to have forged his university degree and was disqualified.
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In his day-after tweets, Mr. Trump assailed what he called the "Fake News Media" for refusing to give him credit for a successful season of special elections and primaries.
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After two Republican state lawmakers stepped down to take spots in Walker's administration, the Wisconsin governor decided to just not call special elections as state law seemed to clearly demand.
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But step back from the specifics of the race and look at all four special elections in red districts held since Donald Trump's election, and a more optimistic story emerges.
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In both his own campaign and a series of special elections since, Mr. Trump has been far better equipped to knock down a rival than to lift up an ally.
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Voters chose a liberal candidate to fill a State Supreme Court seat, and elected Democrats in special elections to two state legislative seats that had long been held by Republicans.
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But Democrats — who have already fallen short in special elections for House seats in Kansas and Montana, where their candidates faced stronger opposition — sorely need more than a moral victory.
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So far, the couple have avoided high-profile special elections in Alabama, Georgia and Pennsylvania, and engaged sparingly in the off-year elections for governor in New Jersey and Virginia.
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There's no doubt that he was a superior candidate, well suited for his district, compared to the Democratic nominees of the four previous House special elections that the party lost.
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That echoed earlier Trump-era special elections, which have swung toward Democrats by an average of 14 percentage points since 2016, according to the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
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In the average of seven special elections before this one, Democrats were outperforming their partisan baseline (based off the previous two presidential results in the district) by 16 percentage points.
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That performance, combined with 2017 wins in Alabama, Virginia and New Jersey, and strong showings in previous special elections, all reflect the headwinds Republicans are facing in November's midterm elections.
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The Legislature will be adjourned for 2018 before these seats could be filled in special elections, and staff in these offices are working for constituents until new leaders are elected.
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Democrats in Oklahoma picked up a key state Senate seat in a Tuesday special election, marking the fourth seat Democrats have gained in special elections in the state this year.
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But Moulton, who campaigned as a political outsider opposed to the conventions of Washington, has grown increasingly critical of Pelosi in recent weeks amid Democratic electoral losses in special elections.
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And think about the things that have been going wrong for Republicans in special elections: desertions by highly educated suburban voters, massive African-American turnout, weak turnout by rural whites.
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Amid all the primaries, there were a few state legislature special elections as well — and in one state Senate contest, in Missouri, Democrats flipped another seat formerly held by Republicans.
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Democrats in the state often struggle with turnout in midterm elections, but opinion polls and recent special elections suggest that opposition to Trump this year is galvanizing the party's base.
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Wasserman, a veteran pollster and election watcher, said the polls in 2018 have so far been accurate; they lined up well with the results of 2017 and 2018 special elections.
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Conversely, Democrats have been running very strongly in special elections over the past year, and they've recruited record numbers of congressional candidates, usually a positive sign for a party's prospects.
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GIGOT: One of the things we have seen throughout the special elections in the last 22018 months is that Democrats have outperformed what you would have had expectations for voter turnout.
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The New York City Bar Association's charter revision task force endorsed ranked-choice voting, but was unhappy it would not be used in general elections, only in primary and special elections.
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There have been three special elections in the Trump era, and although Democrats have yet to flip a seat, they've gained considerable ground in each compared to results in the general.
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Democrats have been optimistic that Trump's unpopularity might spark a wave election in 2018, but the electoral map is unfriendly so far and Republicans have held seats in tight special elections.
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Democrats lost four consecutive special elections this year and the pressure will now be on Virginia to see if they can pull off an early win ahead of the 28503 midterms.
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In the four special elections to fill seats in the House of Representatives vacated by Republican incumbents to join President Donald Trump's Cabinet, the GOP has posted a 4-0 record.
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In special elections for House seats vacated by Republicans who wound up in President Donald Trump's Cabinet, Democrats went 0-for-4 losing races in Georgia, Montana, South Carolina and Kansas.
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Nunberg noted that, in addition to the Georgia result, the GOP has held on to the three other competitive special elections that have taken place during Trump's first months in office.
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You can't just assume that outrage in July of 2017 is going to translate to people being at the polls in special elections in the fall of 2017, or in 2018.
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"Ryan continues to help the NRCC fend off Democrats in House special elections and carry much of the political weight for the House Republican Conference," said a source close to Ryan.
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