Robert Shiller popularized a benchmark metric for evaluating whether the stock market is overvalued: the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio.
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The fixed income portfolio collateralizes derivatives contracts tracking the Shiller Barclays CAPE US Sector Total Return Index (the Shiller Barclays index).
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Shiller is Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University and helped develop the widely followed S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.
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Shiller, co-creator of the S&P Case/Shiller home prices index, said Trump is a "motivational speaker" with a "tremendous self-confidence" that's contagious.
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Shiller, co-creator of the S&P Case/Shiller home prices index, does recognize that pockets of the economy, especially housing, have been coming under pressure.
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" I asked Shiller why two recent narratives have "gone viral" this year: Shiller believes we should spend more time studying why some economic narratives "go viral.
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Some, most notably Wharton professor of finance and perennial Shiller sparring partner Jeremy Siegel, have taken issue with the conclusions Shiller takes from the CAPE's current level.
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Shiller insists this happens because the brain uses short-cut rules (Shiller calls them "heuristics") that might work in the short term, but are often bad long term.
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The Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings ratio — often referred to as the "Shiller CAPE" or "Shiller PE" — looks at valuations over a 303-year period to smooth for fluctuations in the business cycle.
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Shiller suggested we're in a bubble, and he's pretty smart.
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And so when Shiller talks about market bubbles, investors listen.
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And, regardless of merit, Shiller says it's still going on.
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"You know recessions always come as a surprise," said Shiller.
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Shiller emphasizes there's still uncertainty and risk surrounding Wall Street.
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ET, Case-Shiller home price data for February at 9 a.m.
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We get the Case-Shiller home price data later this morning.
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More generally, Shiller senses "almost a kind of anxiety" surrounding Trump.
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Later this morning we get the Case Shiller home price data.
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Some experts, like Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, are pessimistic.
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She tackles the frequently cited Shiller PE ratio as particularly troublesome.
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Mr. Trump "is our first motivational-speaker president," Mr. Shiller said.
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"This is why the Shiller CAPE doesn't work anymore," McCaughan said.
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"I worry that historically earnings have been trend-reverting," said Shiller.
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Shiller: Well, the impact of narratives is bigger with social media.
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Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller has a warning for investors.
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But this kind of complacency, this kind of confidence can be volatile," Robert Shiller, co-creator of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, said in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street.
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ET, followed by the Case-Shiller home price index at 9 a.m.
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The April Case-Shiller report on home prices, issued at 9 a.m.
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Valuations are sufficiently high that the market "looks dangerous now," Shiller said.
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"A decline in profits starts creating doubts in people's minds," Shiller said.
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Despite our anxiety and recession talk, consumer expenditure remains high, Shiller said.
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"We never had a President this capable of inspiring people," noted Shiller.
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People can change their shopping habits based on a story, Shiller explains.
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"It's not big," said Yale economics professor and Nobel laureate Robert Shiller.
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"Something very strange is going on," Shiller told Business Insider by phone.
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It's no secret that Robert Shiller considers American stocks to be expensive.
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Shiller: Oh yeah, I use that as Chapter 1 of my book.
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" It's a phenomenon which Shiller says is making him "lie awake worrying.
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"We've seen volatility pick up right in response to this crisis," said Shiller.
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ET with the S&P Case-Shiller report on home prices for April.
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It's a rally that could lead to a historic drop, according to Shiller.
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The Case-Shiller price index showed home prices rose 4.3% annually in January.
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ET, with the release of the January Case-Shiller report on home prices.
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"That attention to public debt has waxed and waned throughout history," Shiller said.
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CNBC's Mike Santoli spoke with Shiller in an exclusive interview for CNBC PRO.
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Shiller concluded that investors often make decisions on emotions rather than rational calculations.
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ET, followed by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index at 9 a.m.
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It becomes more of a game," Shiller said Monday on CNBC's "Trading Nation.
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About half of all U.S. homes are part of the Case-Shiller index.
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This is the view of Robert J. Shiller, a Yale University economics professor.
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Corelogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price index (which I helped to create).
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"Now, we sit with a Shiller P.E. that briefly touched 29," he said.
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The S&P Case-Shiller home price index is out at 9 a.m.
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Shiller: Well, a narrative that comes to mind is the artificial intelligence revolution.
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Robert Shiller: Well it's that and also his re-election in three years.
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Consider first the evidence from what is often called the Shiller CAPE ratio.
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He builds his case by highlighting the Shiller PE Ratio, known as CAPE.
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"We're already in for what could be a repeat of 2008," Shiller said.
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The Case-Shiller 20-city home price index is also due at 9 a.m.
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Still, Shiller makes it clear this doesn't necessarily suggest that investors should sell stocks.
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"I think gold is a bubble, but it's always been a bubble," hedged Shiller.
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We get consumer confidence figures and the Case Shiller home price data this morning.
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Today we get the Case Shiller home price index and consumer confidence numbers. -U.
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But history indicates that it will eventually shift the other way, writes Robert Shiller.
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Nobel-prize winning economist Robert Shiller warns the market meltdown is far from over.
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"Let's not make the mistake of assuming it's right around the corner," Shiller said.
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Robert Shiller is well-known for his views on valuation, volatility, dividends and bubbles.
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Shiller notes that these narratives follow "epidemic curves" similar to outbreaks of infectious diseases.
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However, Shiller noted interest rate levels historically do not correlate with the CAPE ratio.
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Robert Shiller: Steel aluminum will be very small because it's not a big proportion.
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Robert Shiller: Well it's hard, this is cost-push inflation, it's not demand-pull.
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Shiller said the world should be looking to mimic Chile's Unidad de Fomento instead.
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ET, followed by the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index at 9 a.m.
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I think it's an overreaction to good earnings," said Shiller on Wednesday's "Trading Nation.
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Shiller PE ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years.
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On Wednesday, S&P/Case-Shiller home price data will be released at 9 a.m.
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That quest for the good life could also stimulate spending — particularly in housing, Shiller said.
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Nobel laureate Robert Shiller sees the U.S-China trade war creating more stock market jolts.
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A lot of what happens with the markets is a "self-fulfilling prophecy," Shiller adds.
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But Shiller points out the subsequent rebounds were encouraging — at least to a certain extent.
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Nobel-prize winning economist Robert Shiller sees justification for a quarter-point interest rate hike.
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For Tuesday's market, there is S&P/Case-Shiller home price data at 9 a.m.
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The S&P Case-Shiller home price index is not yet negative but is decelerating.
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Shiller says this rebound is driven more by the bullish market narrative than hard data.
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ET. The December S&P Case-Shiller report on home prices comes at 9 a.m.
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Their price-to-earnings ratios are much lower," Shiller said Wednesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation.
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" "They are generating so much anger around the world," Shiller said on CNBC's "Power Lunch.
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Earnings season continues today and we get the Case Shiller home prices report this morning.
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There seems to be some strange enthusiasm for it," Shiller said on CNBC's "Closing Bell.
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Great Depression parallelsTo further his point, Shiller references major historical events like the Great Depression.
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That's because they are "too crazy," said Shiller, a professor of economics at Yale University.
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Today, the comparable figures are 20.7 trailing, 17.5 forward and Shiller P/E of 29.7.
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ET, with the release of the January S&P Case-Shiller report on home prices.
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Besides demographics, Shiller said inequality was another narrative behind the precipitous drop in interest rates.
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Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote the textbook on the 2 worst bubbles in recent history.
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ET. The S&P/Case-Shiller report on home prices is out at 1348 a.m.
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Shiller: A lot of people think about narratives these days, it&aposs a new trend.
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Shiller attributes the gains to "animal spirits," a sense of optimism and inclination toward risk.
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Shiller said Trump's reception by the Davos audience was going to be interesting to see.
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Shiller told CNBC that economists were only just waking up to the power of narratives.
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Robert Shiller: Well I'm not an expert on the business negotiations with the Chinese government.
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"The ratio is around 30 now which is quite high by historical standards," said Shiller.
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However, most homeowners don't claim the deduction and instead use the standard deduction, Shiller said.
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Nobel laureate Robert Shiller isn't using midterm election patterns to help construct his latest market forecasts.
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His so-called Shiller P/E is at 27.8, way above the historical median of 16.05.
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We get a slew of economic reports this morning including the Case Shiller home price index.
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His whole persona is "live big, live large" and that's aspirational for many Americans, Shiller said.
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ET. The S&P/Case-Shiller report on May home prices is out at 21 a.m.
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ET. The S&P Case-Shiller report on September home prices is out at 9 a.m.
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The latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index data will be published at 9 a.m.
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Six months later, the market is roughly where it was the day Shiller made his comments.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite rose 5.8 percent year over year in November.
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Robert Shiller shares his market views in an exclusive interview for CNBC PRO with Mike Santoli.
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Yale economist Robert Shiller has surveyed professional and amateur investors for decades about their market expectations.
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Although as Shiller also makes clear, investors shouldn't obsess over the level of the CAPE ratio.
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Shiller tracked these stories by measuring the recurrence of certain key words in a newspaper database.
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"Something very strange is going on," Shiller told Business Insider's Akin Oyedele in an exclusive interview.
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It will have a different name, if it exists," Shiller said Tuesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation.
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The Shiller PE ratio compares today's stock price with a 10-year average of corporate earnings.
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People are getting excited watching other people [invest]," Shiller said in an interview with "Closing Bell.
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Shiller, who has called bitcoin a "fad," believes it is OK to "play" with the cryptocurrency.
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"It's kind of a feedback loop," said Robert Shiller, a professor of economics at Yale University.
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Also today: The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for June arrives at 9 a.m.
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Also today: The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for December drops at 9 a.m.
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"If he survives that, he might contribute for some time in boosting the market," said Shiller.
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Mr Shiller searched archives of newspapers from the period, and could find no record of it.
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Whatever their provenance, says Mr Shiller, it matters which kinds of narratives are contagious and why.
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I have interviewed Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller several times, who authored the classic Irrational Exuberance.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller report on home prices for December is out at 423 a.m.
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Also today: The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July arrives at 9 a.m.
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We get the Case Shiller home price index this morning and a read on consumer confidence.
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Shiller: It isn&apost a single story, every telling of the story is a little different.
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The S&P Case-Shiller index showed home price gains accelerated in September, gaining 3.2% annually.
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In addition to GDP, the December Case-Shiller report on home prices is out at 9 a.m.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller report on home prices for August will be out at 173 a.m.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index rose 5.4 percent year over year in April.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index rose 5.4 percent year-over-year in April.
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Tabarrok and other economists like Robert Shiller argue that houses don't have a great financial track record.
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We get the revised GDP report this morning along with the Case Shiller home prices data. -U.
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Home prices rose 0.9% in November, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price index.
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The only sector of the Case-Shiller index that saw prices fall was New York City condos.
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ET. The Case-Shiller report on home prices for March will be out at 83:00 a.m.
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Housing data will include pending home sales as well as the S&P/Case-Shiller price index.
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Apple's Phil Shiller revealed that the new A10 fusion is 120 times faster than an original iPhone.
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Robert Shiller, the Nobel Prize-winning economist at Yale, maps out the probable future in his Sept.
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"He was more connected to the business world than most academics," Mr. Shiller said in an interview.
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Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller is drawing parallels between the world's leading cryptocurrency and the dinosaurs.
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"Earnings have been hugging a trend since 1950," said Robert Shiller, a Yale economist and Nobel laureate.
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"It seems to refer to the psychology of the market," said Robert Shiller, a Yale economics professor.
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Before the markets can take-off, Shiller stresses President Trump needs to get past the impeachment inquiry.
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Shiller contends the next recession may not hit for another three years, and it could be mild.
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A science of economic narratives, of the kind Mr Shiller calls for, would require high-quality data.
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They were bullish on the potential of the technology and countered the views of Poloz and Shiller.
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Kelly *And home prices (as the S&P/Case-Shiller gauge showed this morning) are already reaccelerating!
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According to Shiller, Trump is great at reading audiences, experimenting with narratives, and he is never boring.
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Nobel-prize winning economist Robert Shiller believes the record market rally could last months — if not more.
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"We might see a continuation of the Trump boom for a while despite the impeachment," Shiller said.
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Watch the Case-Shiller numbers especially to see if the buyers' market is still propelling prices higher.
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CAPE is a widely followed valuation metric developed by Nobel Prize winners John Campbell and Robert Shiller.
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We have housing prices, at least per the Case-Shiller index, has eclipsed the highs back in 2006.
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Meanwhile, home prices rose 5.4 percent in March, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index.
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Meanwhile, home prices are again up 5 percent to 6 percent, according to Case-Shiller and other sources.
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Robert Shiller, the Nobel Prize-winning economist, has considered whether the housing market is at a turning point.
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The Shiller P/E is a valuation measure usually applied to the U.S. S&P 500 equity market.
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This morning we get the Case Shiller reading on home prices and data on personal income and spending.
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ET. There is also S&P Case Shiller home prices and FHFA home prices, both at 9 a.m.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index rose 5.7 percent in January from a year ago.
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While Trump is rarely likened to the man known as "Silent Cal," Shiller finds the historical comparison useful.
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Why, academics such as Robert Shiller, have asked, are markets so much more volatile than the underlying economy?
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So, it's not like we are in this spectacular market," Shiller said this week on CNBC's "Trading Nation.
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Shiller thinks identifying how these psychological elements fit together is key in understanding how booms or busts manifest.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index tracks home prices in 17 cities by price tier.
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Shiller elaborated on his assessment of valuing bitcoin in an interview with CNBC's "Trading Nation " on Monday afternoon.
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Prices in June rose 22018% annually, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index has climbed steadily over the past seven years.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index is scheduled to be released before the market opens.
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The observation is coming from Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, who's been arguing valuations are extremely expensive.
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In December, home prices rose 3.8% annually on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.
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Shiller added that he is not demeaning the innovation and technology behind the peer-to-peer cryptocurrency's system.
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In data news, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index is due out at 9 a.m.
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"The research suggests that except for extreme environments, children's minds are quite plastic, quite flexible," Dr. Shiller said.
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In economic news, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index rose slightly from May to June.
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U.S. home prices rose 6.2 percent annually, according to Tuesday's S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
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It's a concept that applies to the current market dynamics and the importance of psychology, according to Shiller.
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Trump is a "genius" at motivating the large segment of the population that voted him into office, Shiller said.
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The cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, as calculated by Robert Shiller of Yale, is double its long-term average.
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ET. The S&P/Case-Shiller house price index for May is due for release at 9:00 a.m.
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On this morning's economic calendar, the Case-Shiller report on home prices for October is out at 19483 a.m.
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You know, if people think that, they're going to make it happen," Shiller said Wednesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation.
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Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller is encouraging investors to go abroad as U.S. stocks hit fresh record highs.
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We like to look at what we call a Shiller PE ratio, price relative to 10-year smoothed earnings.
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Nationally, prices were up 4.3 percent annually, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index.
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"Right now is a good time to look at one's portfolio and ask if it's diversified enough," Shiller said.
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Oh, and home prices dropped 61 percent over three years during that crisis, according to the Case-Shiller Index.
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Shiller expands on this narrative with newspaper clippings and what political leaders said before and during the Great Depression.
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Tuesday's number is the most closely watched, as that is when the Case/Shiller home price index is released.
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Mr. Case was introduced to Mr. Shiller by Sharon M. Oster, a Yale economist and colleague of Mr. Shiller's.
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Cryptocurrencies mirror some of the most famous failed currency experiments throughout history, according to Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller.
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But Robert Shiller, the Nobel laureate and famed Yale economist, thinks investors are severely limited in their recessionary forecasts.
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Prices were up 6.2 percent nationally in October, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller Home Price Index.
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The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index advanced 5.7 percent in December from a year earlier.
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According to Shiller, stocks and the economy are extremely vulnerable right now because coronavirus panic has not peaked yet.
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Unlike 1929, Shiller points out there's not much talk about people borrowing exorbitant amounts of money to buy stocks.
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They were up more than 6 percent in June, according to the latest report from S&P Case-Shiller.
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In June, prices nationally rose 6.2 percent year over year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices.
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Robert Shiller: The immediate thing will be an economic crisis because these enterprises are built on long-term planning.
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Home prices in June reached a new high nationally on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index.
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"By standard measures of growth, inflation and unemployment, she has been a big success," said Shiller, the Yale economist.
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Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller told "Power Lunch" that he wonders if Trump will start raising other tariffs.
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Bitcoin has "gone viral as a currency" and its price instability is a concern, economist Robert Shiller said Thursday.
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U.S. companies, Shiller warned, are not prepared to have China cut out of their supply chains or business models.
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Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller has insisted that Bitcoin will eventually "totally collapse," even if it takes 100 years.
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The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for April showed U.S. home prices rose 5.4 percent in 20 cities.
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Home prices nationally climbed 5 percent year over year in May, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller Indices.
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He may have been early but Professor Shiller forecast both the end of the dotcom bubble and the housing crash.
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ET, the FHFA House Price Index and S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index are due, while at 10 a.m.
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Mr Shiller has 146 years of numbers for earnings; that breaks down into only 14 completely independent ten-year periods.
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In fact, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index rose 5.7 percent in January from the previous year.
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The biggest gains in prices continue to be in Portland, Oregon, San Francisco and Denver, S&P/Case Shiller reported.
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On the data front, the S&P/Case-Shiller home prices index showed home prices in December rose 5.7 percent.
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Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller says that despite a strong housing market since 2012, homebuyers do not seem as excited.
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Watch the video above to hear more on the state of the housing market from Yale University economist Robert Shiller.
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"We could go back up there, and we're in an oddball enough mood that we might," Shiller said this week.
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The Case-Shiller Index is based on a rolling three-month average; today's release is for February, March, and April.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index rose more than expected in August, hitting an all-time high.
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The idea that we can talk ourselves into a recession is not new, says Yale economics professor Robert J. Shiller.
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That mania and attempts to launch new units of money have existed in different forms since the 1800s, Shiller said.
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"Each of these monetary innovations has been coupled with a unique technological story," Shiller wrote in a blog post Monday.
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Home prices also rose in December at their slowest pace August 2015, according to the S&P Case-Shiller index.
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The real (inflation-corrected) S&P/CoreLogic/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index fell 36 percent from 2005 to 2012.
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Even Robert Shiller, who helped develop the CAPE ratio, has warned against using this valuation measure to time the market.
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"Long-term investors shouldn't be alarmed and shouldn't avoid stocks altogether," Shiller wrote in the New York Times in March.
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Prices in Denver are still up 8 percent over the past year, according to the S&P Case-Shiller index.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 6.5 percent in May from a year earlier.
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Shiller: It&aposs hard to predict whether a new movie which hasn&apost been shown yet will be a success.
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The much-watched S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index released Tuesday rose 3.2% annually for July.
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The S&P Case-Shiller home price index came in slightly below the consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Refinitiv.
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Besides Friday's jobs report, there are also consumer confidence and June S&P/Case-Shiller home price data on Tuesday.
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We get more earnings reports today and economic data from the Case-Shiller home price index and consumer confidence report.
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"I think she has a moral guidance, I would have imagined that she would have wanted to continue," Shiller said.
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Prices are currently nearly 11 percent higher than their 2006 peak, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index.
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That near-30 of the Shiller PE, a popular valuation measure, is almost double the long-term median of 16.1.
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Speaking at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, Shiller compared the cryptocurrency to other attempts to "change" currency.
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Top voices on markets from economist Robert Shiller to JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon have warned people off buying bitcoin.
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The Case-Shiller Index is based on a rolling-three month average; today's release was for August, September, and October data.
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Shiller said he uses the AirPods, also unveiled on Wednesday, to listen to music when his iPhone 7 Plus is charging.
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Home price gains widened in seven major markets in May, according to the latest S&P Case-Shiller home price indices.
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Donald Trump may be the market's hero, but he could soon become its villain, warns Yale professor of economics Robert Shiller.
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That includes Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller, who told CNBC last week that modest living is losing its appeal in America.
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Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller believes investors should continue to own stocks because the bull market may continue for years.
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Separately, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index for January showed a 5.7 percent rise from the previous year.
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Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller told CNBC that despite a strong housing market since 2012, homebuyers do not seem as excited.
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" Siegel added that Shiller "always tempers [his calls] at the end with, 'Doesn't mean it's not still going to go up.
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Meanwhile, U.S. home prices rose 5.8 percent in March, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.
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What would happen to confidence if the Shiller p/e fell from its current 25.6 to the historic average of 16.7?
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In a recent interview with Business Insider, Shiller pinpointed long-term Treasurys as the marketplace he's watching for irrational behavior today.
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Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller is seeing worrying signs in the monthly sentiment survey at the Yale School of Management.
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Shiller was referring to the valuations measured by the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (or CAPE) ratio he developed with John Campbell.
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Nationally, values rose 7.83 percent annually, unchanged compared with February, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price indexes.
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"If you have been overexposed to the United States in your portfolio, this is a time to reconsider that," Shiller said.
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They have slowed for a fourth straight month from a 6.8 percent pace in February, according to S&P/Case Shiller.
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In Harmsworth's view, that's because fiscal and monetary policy interventions can override the indications the Shiller PE ratio is sending out.
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When the housing market crashed in 2008, a lot of people became interested in this data from Yale economist Robert Shiller.
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Narratives tend to be ignored by economists because their links to events are complex and variable—as Mr Shiller himself notes.
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"We are going to see ships sailing across the ocean with nobody on it, just cargo — like driverless cars," Shiller said.
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Has he been able to —Shiller: This is one place where I can be lavish in my praise of Donald Trump.
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Currently, CAPE sits around 28, in the 90th percentile, which Shiller called "significant" in a New York Times article this year.
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The much-watched S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index is set to release at 210:200 a.m.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index increased slightly from May to June, while a key composite held steady.
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The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, due out on Tuesday, is expected to show price gains decelerated in August.
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"She came in as vice chairman in 2010 after the crisis, and we've had kind of a funny recovery," Shiller added.
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Nobel laureate Robert Shiller identifies a rising 'existential threat' to the economy's expansion — and tells us why it's similar to what made the Great Depression so severeIn an exclusive correspondence with Business Insider, Shiller outlined the similarity between concerns about AI and the so-called technological-unemployment narrative that sprang up just before the Great Depression.
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Nationally, prices rose 22018 percent in August compared with August 22018, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home prices index.
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On the data front, Tuesday will see employment cost index, S&P Case-Shiller HPI and Chicago PMI before 9:45 a.
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The shortage of homes for sale has now pushed prices to a 30-year high, according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index also rose 5.3 percent year over year, up from October's 5.1 percent.
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Normal recessions are driven by economic processes, including inventory adjustments, consumer and business confidence, and labour market dynamics (Narrative economics, Shiller, 2017).
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In the last 12 months, the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller National Index is up 3.7%, nearly double the 1.9% inflation rate.
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On "Trading Nation" in early March, Shiller gave a 50 percent chance the economy would tip into a recession within 18 months.
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The Standard & Poor&aposs CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index, released Tuesday, increased 6.1 percent in August from a year earlier.
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"There is too much history of governments overpowering the wisdom of the central bankers and ending up ultimately in inflation," Shiller said.
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Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa, Florida, reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in the Case Shiller Index.
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Home prices also just crossed over to record highs in September, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index also rose 5.1 percent year over year, up from July's 5.0 percent.
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Housing prices in the city rose an exorbitant 53 percent in the last four years, according to S&P Case-Shiller Index.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 24.54-city home price index released Tuesday rose 23.92 percent in May from a year earlier.
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It refers to the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio compiled by Robert Shiller of Yale University, which averages profits over ten years.
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"People who are good storytellers — like Donald J. Trump is a brilliant storyteller — they tend to rise in our economy," Shiller said.
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On the data front, the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index rose 5.7 percent in January from the previous year.
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Values jumped 6.3 percent nationally in February compared with a year earlier, according the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
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" Shiller, who won the Nobel Prize for economics in 2013, added that Trump's tariffs likely won't stick because they are "too crazy.
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Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller believes a strong earnings season may not be adequate to keep stocks out of the red.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index rose more than expected in September in a continuation of this year's momentum.
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As they developed their model for broader use, Mr. Case and Mr. Shiller also showed that housing prices were not necessarily rational.
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Their creation is now produced by Standard & Poor's and CoreLogic and is known as the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.
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Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller is seeing worrisome issues surrounding the growing popularity of index funds and ETFs among retail investors.
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Shiller says these negative thoughts tend to feed on each other, turning an idea into a reality that affects economic decision-making.
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They rose 6.1 percent in August from August 2016, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index.
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The latest data from the Conference Board's consumer confidence index and the Standard & Poor's/ Case-Shiller Home Price Index will be published.
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U.S. home prices rose slightly less than anticipated in April, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.
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Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller isn't getting spooked by rising interest rates or fresh stock market records, at least not yet.
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Some are even taught by world-renowned experts, like Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller, who teaches a financial markets course at Yale.
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Nobel-prize winning economist Robert Shiller believes a recession may be years away due to a bullish Trump effect in the market.
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"I don't want to encourage people too much to put a lot into the most expensive market in the world," said Shiller.
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Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC that he was a supporter of the meeting, which he is attending in 2018.
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"It seems to me that the enthusiasm for bitcoin is a little bit out of proportion to its immediate application," Shiller said.
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"I liken him to Calvin Coolidge, a pro-business president who kept constantly trying to boost the stock market," Mr. Shiller said.
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The inflows brought the DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE fund and the DoubleLine Flexible Income Fund's assets to $2 billion and $475 million, respectively.
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Prices rose 4% nationally in February, down from January's 4.2% annual gain, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index.
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The cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, which averages profits over ten years, is just under 22017, according to Robert Shiller of Yale University.
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If President Donald Trump wins a second term, it could prolong the bull market and delay a recession, Nobel laureate Robert Shiller says.
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Shiller, who has been making comparisons to the excesses of the Roaring '20s and the current bull market, is still on recession watch.
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The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for February rose 5.4 percent, just below expectations for a 5.5 percent increase among analysts.
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American equities are on a cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio of 31, according to the website of Robert Shiller, a previous Nobel winner.
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Retirement plans being used for immediate needs not for savings | Retirees living longer, healthier lives Bitcoin resembles currency experiments that failed : Robert Shiller.
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Shiller, credited with foreseeing the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, told Fortune on Friday that the tech sector is relatively undervalued.
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US home price gains reached a 31-month high in January, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index rose 5.7 percent in January from the previous year, roughly in line with expectations.
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Shiller also says Donald Trump and his family's lifestyle might be contributing to people feeling like, they too, can live in extravagant homes.
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On the data front, Tuesday will see S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index for February released at around 9 a.
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On the data front, the U.S. National Home Price NSA Index rose 6.2 percent in September, according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller.
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Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller hasn't been the most optimistic voice on Wall Street, but he isn't writing off the bull market.
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To back up that argument, Harmsworth uses chart below, which tracks the Shiller PE ratio and compares it to forward returns for stocks.
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U.S. home prices increased 6.3 percent compared to December of 2016, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home prices index.
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Plus, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, created by Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller, is near the highest since 2000 dot-com bubble.
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"The rise of an explicit belief in irrationality like this one is troubling on many levels," Shiller wrote in The New York Times.
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The latest read on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index showed it hit a record high in June.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index maintained a 5.6 percent annual gain in May, even as a key composite declined.
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Nobel laureate and Yale University Economics Professor Robert Shiller told CNBC last week that he will "lie awake worrying" about the stock market.
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For example, home prices rose 6.2 percent over the past year, according to Standard & Poor's latest CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.
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The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index offers an index based on three tiers of prices — low tier, middle tier, and high tier.
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"A recession ... is a time when many people have decided to spend less, to make do for now with that old furniture instead of buying new, to postpone starting a new business, to postpone hiring new help in an existing business, or to express support for fiscally conservative government," Yale economist Robert Shiller told the American Economic Association ("Narrative economics", Shiller, 22000).
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US home prices have hit their highest levels since the financial crisis, according to the October reading of the S&P/Case-Shiller index.
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Still, Shiller cautioned that investors shouldn't get too comfortable, as the Trump rally could end up like Calvin Coolidge's run nearly a century ago.
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" Shiller is quick to add that since short-term moves are nigh impossible to forecast, the metric "is not suggesting, necessarily, any imminent disaster.
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According to Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, over the past 100 years, the U.S. stock market has only seen today's elevated valuations on three occasions.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite's year-over-year gain was 5.4 percent in February, down from 5.7 percent the prior month.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite's year-over-year gain was 5.4 percent in February, down from 83 percent the prior month.
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S&P Case-Shiller Index, which measures house prices in 22018 U.S. metropolitan cities, is up a little over 3% on an annualized basis.
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National home prices rose 3.7% annually in March, down from 3.9% in February, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index.
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Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller is taking issue with the Federal Reserve's rate cut in July, saying it caused psychological harm to the markets.
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Shiller said the Fed's move was less about the actual cut but more about the psychological impact of casting recession worries on the markets.
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Home prices have also moderated, with the S&P/Case-Shiller index showing prices increasing in December by the smallest percentage since November 2014.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index rose 5.2 percent year over year, versus expectations for a reading of 5.7 percent.
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Shiller, who is known for his behavioral finance research, believes the president's pro-business policies would resonate with Wall Street for another four years.
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Home prices in April were 3.5% higher than a year earlier, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.
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Going locally on the Case-Shiller report, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa, Florida, saw the highest annual gains among the 20 cities in April.
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Meanwhile, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index rose 303 percent year over year, slightly below the expected 5.1 percent increase.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index rose 5.0 percent year-over-year, versus expectations for an increase of 5.1 percent.
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S&P Case-Shiller Index, which measures house prices in 27 U.S. metropolitan cities, is up a little over 22018% on an annualized basis.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index rose 5.1 percent year over year, versus expectations for an increase of 5.2 percent.
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U.S. home prices across 20 cities appreciated at a 4.2 percent annual pace in December, the slowest since November 2014, according to Case-Shiller.
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Nobel laureate Robert Shiller suggests a self-fulfilling is prophecy unfolding on Wall Street that could ultimately derail the longest bull market in history.
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Shiller also says President Donald Trump and his family's lifestyle might be contributing to people feeling like, they too, can live in extravagant homes.
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A report on Tuesday is expected to show that the Case/Shiller house price index rose 5.9 percent in January from a year earlier.
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The Shiller valuation level, whose formal name is the Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, has captured considerable attention lately as the bull market continues.
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Housing prices, meanwhile, jumped 6.3 percent in February compared to a year ago, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
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Separately, the Standard & Poor's CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 5.1 percent in August, after a 5 percent gain in July.
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The man who saw both busts coming and wrote "Irrational Exuberance," arguably the textbook on both crises, is the Yale University professor Robert Shiller.
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"The general idea is it would push prices down if people are rational," which Shiller says they are not when it comes to housing.
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In 1991, the two worked with Allan Weiss, a management consultant who had studied with Mr. Shiller at Yale, to develop their model commercially.
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Investors need to tread carefully right now because market valuations are at "unusual highs," Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC on Thursday.
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Nominal home prices, measured by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, are over 85003 percent above the trough as of January.
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The Nobel winners included such prominent names such as the chemist Peter Agre, the economist Robert J. Shiller and the physicist Robert Woodrow Wilson.
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First off, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and Federal Housing Finance Agency house price index data are due at 9 a.m.
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Prices rose 3.2% in August, up from the 3.1% gain in July, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index rose by 5.1 percent in October from the same time last year.
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The housing market may be slowing down, but Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller told CNBC he isn't fearful that a big downturn is ahead.
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According to Shiller, the rise in attention paid to technological unemployment that began in 1929 was an important factor in worsening the Great Depression.
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Shiller may see red flags, but he isn't ruling out a market that continues to churn out fresh records for months, if not years.
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For Shiller, the market move he sees as being partially driven by technological anxiety appears a bit irrational, but may not yet be over.
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U.S. home prices increased 6.3 percent compared with December 2016, according to the much-watched S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home prices index.
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Shiller notes that many economic narratives that have "gone viral" today — like worries that machines will take all our job — which are remarkably old.
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Shiller noted that one study he did found that an earthquake made people who had been in it fearful of the stock market. Why?
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The much-watched S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose 3.2% annually in July, the same gain reported in June.
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Nationally, prices increased 22018% annually in November, up from 3.2% in October, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.
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Artificial intelligence (AI) could be the biggest challenge facing the jobs market and even humanity itself, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller.
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There is a busy economic calendar in the week ahead, including S&P/Case-Shiller home prices Tuesday, and personal income and spending Thursday.
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While saying the current bull market in stocks may come to an end sooner rather than later, Shiller did advise investors not to sell yet.
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Robert Shiller thinks the post-election rally could continue on in the short term, as enthusiasm over the election of Donald Trump spurs stocks higher.
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Long-term investors ought to use the recent market rally to cut back on their equity holdings, according to Yale professor of economics Robert Shiller.
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"Everybody has a First Amendment right but there are repercussions for those First Amendment rights," said Brendan Shiller, one of the partners in the firm.
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On the data front, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20 city composite home price index showed a 5.7 percent increase year-over-year in December.
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DoubleLine's largest equities mutual fund, the $1.2 billion DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE fund, had a net inflow of $117.07 million in July, its largest ever.
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Shiller, who won the Nobel Prize for his work on predicting long-term stock market movements, offers a set of tools backed by historical facts.
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The Yale professor and Nobel laureate Robert Shiller says the true-or-false narratives that are spread about assets are the underlying drivers of bubbles.
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Another valuation measure created by Yale economist Robert Shiller — CAPE — suggests that emerging market stocks remain the best value relative to most other stock markets.
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These varied and often-conflicting narratives make it difficult to arrive at an accurate forecast, Shiller says, and it's made navigating the market much tougher.
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"The problem is that if you are talking about passive indexing, that is something that is really free-riding on other people's work, " Shiller said.
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"Shiller added: "New crises that shake up the economy often surprise economists because no exogenous cause appears to be a sufficient explanation for a downturn.
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Even though Shiller believes investors should keep buying stocks here at home and aboard, he acknowledges that a recession could still come at any time.
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As recently as July, prominent economists such as Robert Shiller were suggesting that the very low unemployment rate called for a higher interest rate target.
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His Shiller PE Ratio, also known as CAPE, tracks the price-to-earnings ratio based on average inflation-adjusted earnings over the last 10 years.
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Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC ahead of Davos that it may be around for 100 years, though it's more likely to collapse.
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"My own way of thinking is it looks like an overreaction," Shiller said Friday at a conference in New York presented by the Wharton School.
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The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio — which was created by Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller — currently sits near its dot-com bubble high.
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Washington ranks fifth of the 27 cities the Case-Shiller index of housing prices tracks, behind only Los Angeles, Miami, San Diego and San Francisco.
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Meanwhile, while insisting that U.S. stocks are indeed overvalued, even Shiller readily acknowledges that long-term valuation measures make poor short-term market timing tools.
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Following is the transcript of a CNBC interview with Robert Shiller, Yale University Professor and 2013 Nobel Laureate, at the China Development Forum in Beijing.
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Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters estimated the Case-Shiller 20 city composite would report a year-over-year gain of 5.8 percent in the month.
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Housing data: A trifecta of US real estate reports are expected Tuesday: US building permits, housing starts and S&P/Case-Shiller US home prices.
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" The Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller defends the skills learned by English majors and other liberal arts graduates in his new book, "Narrative Economics.
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Cramer pointed to Tuesday's S&P Case-Shiller 20-city housing index, which rose 0.1 percent year over year, the lowest annualized increase in 20 months.
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Prices increased 5.5 percent annually in September, down from 5.7 percent in August, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.
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A fourth report showed the S&P/Case Shiller composite home price index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.4 percent in March from a year ago.
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ET, the March Case-Shiller report should show a 5.4 percent year-over-year rise in home prices, according to forecasts, identical to the February gain.
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National home prices rose 4% in February from a year earlier, according to the latest reading on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index rose 5.4 percent in February, just below expectations for a 5.5 percent increase among analysts.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which measures all nine U.S. census divisions, was up 5.3 percent year-over-year in February.
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Shiller said the markets also were spooked when the Fed cut interest rates after the financial crisis to a range of zero to 25 basis points.
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Or if Robert Shiller, the Nobel-prizewinning author of "Irrational Exuberance", were given a similar post, only to depart having allowed a stockmarket bubble to inflate.
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Economists such as Herb Simon (who won the Nobel in 1978), Daniel Kahneman (2002) and Robert Shiller (2013) are celebrated for their contributions to this effort.
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Robert Shiller, who helped create the subfield now known as behavioural finance (and won a Nobel prize), reckons that ideas about markets spread like an epidemic.
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Nationally, prices rose 21.8 percent annually in January, down from the 220 percent gain in December, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller price index.
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The S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which measures all nine U.S. census divisions, was up 5.4 percent year over year in January.
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The S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which measures all nine U.S. census divisions, was up 5.4 percent year over year in December.
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Other data set for release Tuesday include the S&P Case-Shiller HPI (Home Price Indices), consumer confidence and Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing data for May.
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The co-creator of the much-watched S&P/Case-Shiller home price index doesn't think the mortgage interest deduction really matters to the housing market.
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Mr. Shiller had studied bubbles in the bond and stock markets; Mr. Case was an expert on taxes and incentives, as well as low-income housing.
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From tracking four cities, the Case-Shiller data has expanded to cover dozens of cities and thousands of ZIP codes, as well as providing national benchmarks.
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"We got news today [Tuesday] about Italy that is troubling, " Shiller said — adding he was optimistic Italy would work out its problems and prevent a crisis.
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Bitcoin has "aspects of a bubble " but it's almost impossible to know whether it's gone too far, Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC on Monday.
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"I think that [strong spending] has to do with the inspiration for many people provided by our motivational speaker president who models luxurious living," said Shiller.
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Nobel-Prize winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC that he had been to Davos around 15 times and said he was a fan of the meeting.
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With popular cryptocurrency a few percentage points away from a new high, Yale economics professor Robert Shiller shared his theory on why it resembles a bubble.
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"When mom or dad come back in they actually turn away, they might crawl away, they might barely look at mom or dad," Dr. Shiller said.
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Home prices rose 6 percent annually in July, down from the 6.2 percent gain in June, according to the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller national index.
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Shiller, who wrote about the loss of healthy skepticism by investors in a recent MarketWatch op-ed, said investors have a tendency to overreact to earnings.
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Speaking about bitcoin futures, Shiller said he was "struck" by the fact that, although investors are able to short bitcoin, it is "difficult" to do so.
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Robert J. Shiller, an economics professor at Yale, argues that protectionist policies and penalties for exporters will still not create sustainable jobs for Americans left behind.
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ET, with Federal Housing Finance Agency Housing Price Index and the S&P/Case-Shiller US home prices index set to be published at 9 a.m.
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Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University, said that tariffs have been trending down for decades thanks to the general growth and prosperity around the globe.
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Home values in Seattle were the hottest in the nation last spring, up 143 percent annually in April, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index.
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For example, the DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE Fund has been our fastest growing fund year-to-date, and provides a solid alternative to traditional passive equity investing.
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Meanwhile, home prices grew at a slower rate in February on a year-over-year basis, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index.
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That said, Shiller isn't completely ruling out the possibility of a market downturn, especially when you factor in the public's reaction to these recent yield curve inversions.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index rose by 5.4 percent in March from the same month last year, in line with expectations.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which measures all nine U.S. census divisions, was up 5.2 percent in March from the previous year.
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A monthly reading of home prices nationally in July by S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller showed a 5.1 percent annual gain, up from 5.33 percent in June.
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Nationally, home prices rose 1.23% annually in May, down from the 21.2% annual gain in April, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price indices.
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Prices were 25.9 percent higher than September of 2015, up from the 5.1 percent annual gain in August, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index.
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Meanwhile, U.S. home prices rose slightly in August from July, with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 303-City Composite index gaining 5.1 percent year over year.
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Meanwhile, U.S. home prices rose slightly in August from July, with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index gaining 5.1 percent year over year.
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"You've got the Shiller P/E (ratio) back over 30 times, last seen in the tech bubble, last seen just prior to the 1930s depression," he explained.
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Home prices increased 211.4 percent annually in December, down from 28 percent in November, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.
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Business leaders including Bill Gates, economists Nouriel Roubini and Robert Shiller, and fund managers Ray Dalio and Howard Marks are among those who have questioned bitcoin's legitimacy.
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Equity markets may be relatively expensive, but that doesn't mean investors should do anything drastic, Yale University professor of economics Robert Shiller said in a recent interview.
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The prices in January reported by Case-Shiller reflect sales closed during the previous three months, when rates were high and therefore reflect that hit to affordability.
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In addition to his index responsibilities, Blitzer helped put together the Case-Shiller Home Price indices, which function as a key market barometer for the housing industry.
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Another report showed that the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index increased 5.4 percent in March compared with the same period a year earlier.
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In an exclusive interview with Business Insider, Shiller explained the lessons for the future that could be derived from bitcoin's boom in 2017 and its subsequent crash.
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The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index on Wednesday is expected to show home prices in October rose 4.9% over the previous year, according to Refinitiv.
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"It's kind of pseudoscience to think these indexes are perfect, and all I need is some kind of computer model instead of thinking about business," Shiller said.
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According to Shiller, there's no easy way to add up all these narratives — recession fears, demographics, and inequality — and arrive at a forecast for the Treasurys market.
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CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, coming Tuesday, was expected to show that home prices have continued to rise as the supply of new homes remained limited.
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Nobel-laureate economist Robert Shiller maintains a collection of monthly historical-price data for the S&P 230 and related older stock indices going back to 1871.
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Home prices rose 3.1% annually in June, compared with a gain of 3.3% in May, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 2.2% in October from a year ago, up from a 2.1% annual gain in September.
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In his new book, "Narrative Economics", Robert Shiller, a Nobel laureate, offers this tale as an example of a contagious narrative that becomes part of folk wisdom.
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Unemployment: They found that periods of both low unemployment and a high Shiller price-to-earnings ratio tend to be followed by negative stock-market returns.3.
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A trade war could end that strong momentum, but the last year of growth means there's "a little capacity to absorb" any trade-related jitters, Shiller said.
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Subscribe now to read our feature:Robert Shiller, Rick Rieder, and 18 more of the brightest minds on Wall Street reveal the most important charts in the world
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Nobel-prize winning economists Robert Shiller and Joseph Stiglitz predicted pain ahead for the U.S. economy if Beijing and Washington ramp up tit-for-tat trade penalties.
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Shiller: So when you talk about, oh, yeah, they&aposre not very good at forecasting GDP two years out because the disturbances are, I think, narrative-based.
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"It's going to be a difficult year for us," said Xu. Up next The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index is out at 9:00 a.m.
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The DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE fund has two sources of return: an actively managed fixed income portfolio and a rules-based exposure to the U.S. stock market.
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However, Shiller said he doesn't feel as pessimistic as he did in 2000, when he wrote the book "Irrational Exuberance" shortly before the dot-com bubble burst.
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Monday brings existing home sales, Tuesday is the closely watched Case-Shiller home price index, Wednesday is new home sales and Thursday will provide numbers on vacancies.
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His Shiller PE Ratio, also known as CAPE, shows the price-earnings ratio based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the last 10 years is over 30.
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ET. This will then be followed by the FHFA Home Price Index and S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, both due out around 9 a.m.
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"I'm not confident of my ability to predict, but I think there's a risk (of a bear market in 2019), yes," Yale University's Shiller told CNBC on Wednesday.
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Home values increased 22017 percent annually in November, slowing from 23 percent in October, according to the widely watched S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 5 percent from a year earlier, down from an annual gain of 5.2 percent in September.
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Low inventory and mortgage rates pushed home-price gains to a 230-month high in December, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.
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The S&P/Case Shiller 20-city composite index, which tracks the nation's largest cities, gained 5.6 percent year over year, up from 5.2 percent the previous month.
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After years of stealth wealth, humility and downsizing, the president-elect is ushering in a new era of living large, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller said Wednesday.
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" In 2013, Shiller shared the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences with Eugene Fama and Lars Hansen for "[laying] the foundation for the current understanding of asset prices.
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But with the market priced on a cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio of 28.3, according to Robert Shiller of Yale, a lot of good news is priced in.
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Prices in the 20 cities covered by Case-Shiller rose 0.3 percent in April after seasonal adjustment, the survey showed, short of expectations for a 0.4 percent increase.
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Housing data will also be at the forefront, with S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index and pending home sales numbers set for release Tuesday.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for October, released this morning, jumped 6.2% year-over-year (not-seasonally-adjusted), up from 6.1% in September.
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Thanks to its distinctive midriff the building has been nicknamed "The Tummy" by Robert Shiller, who won a Nobel economics prize for his work on spotting asset bubbles.
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Shiller warned in a New York Times op-ed that investors "should not be tempted to bet aggressively on the Trump bull market" — in March of last year.
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Others, like Robert Shiller, posit that psychology has a big effect on market prices, pointing out that share prices fluctuate far more than fundamental variables such as dividends.
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Nationally, home prices are now just 0.1 percent lower than the peak of the last housing boom, according to the CoreLogic S&P/Case Shiller home price indices.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which measures all nine U.S. census divisions, was also up 5.1 percent in June from the previous year.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index is expected to rise 2% annually in August, according to Dow Jones, the same as last month.
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A measure that looks at price and longer-term earnings trends popularized by economist Robert Shiller, a Nobel prize winner, is also more expensive than its historical average.
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"We make an adjustment for the fact that technology stocks have always been highly priced, so recently they've been less highly priced overall than on average," Shiller said.
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U.S. home prices rose more than was anticipated for the month of February, according to new data from the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.
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On the data front, the S&P/Case Shiller 20-city home price index showed U.S. home prices rose 5.9 percent to a 31-month high in January.
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On the data front, the S&P/Case Shiller 20-city home price index showed U.S. home prices rose 48.10 percent to a 31-month high in January.
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Earlier, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite rose 5.8 percent year-over-year in November, topping expectations and faster than the 5.5-percent increase in October.
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Nationally, home prices jumped 6.2 percent in September compared with September 2016, accelerating from the annual gains in previous months, according to the S&P Case-Shiller Index.
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"As markets rise and valuation on the Shiller has risen ... [it] doesn't mean we're in bubble territory, but we have deviated from where values should be," Davis said.
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The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.7 percent in January on a year-over-year basis, matching the increase the month before.
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" Yale economist Robert Shiller, who designed the CAPE ratio that compares stock prices to corporate earnings, in March 2017 warned that stock prices were sending a "troubling message.
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On Tuesday's economic calendar, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index for October and the Conference Board's December consumer confidence index are out at 9 a.m.
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Shiller, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on bubbles, told CNBC's "Fast Money " on Wednesday that often bubbles are promulgated by stories, not metrics.
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In October, housing prices rose 3.3% annually, according to the most recent S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price NSA Index, which came out last month.
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"It's a misunderstanding that the more contact you have, the better, so you carry your child around all day, you sleep with them at night," Dr. Shiller said.
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Average home prices are now significantly higher than they were at the top of the bubble, as shown by the S&P Case-Shiller national home price index.
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"Trump is a revolution unfortunately, (and one) who's reaffirming nationalism and he's showing that Americans are no better than anyone else," Shiller told CNBC ahead of the Forum.
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Popularised by Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, the CAPE compares the current price of a stock to its average annual inflation-adjusted earnings over the last decade.
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DoubleLine's largest equities portfolio, the $1.7 billion DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE fund , had a net inflow of $172 million in November, the largest net monthly inflow since the Oct.
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A third report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.2 percent in May on a year-over-year basis.
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In the meantime, equities trade on a cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (which averages profits over the past ten years) of 27.3, according to Robert Shiller of Yale University.
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Use the average profits over the last 10 years, a method popularised by Robert Shiller of Yale, and the ratio is 28.3, nearly 70% above the long-term average.
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In a keynote address, Robert Shiller—a Nobel prizewinner, habitual freethinker and outgoing AEA president—suggested that economists should think more broadly about the factors that affect human behaviour.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas, which tracks residential real estate prices, rose 5.7 percent in May on a year-over-year basis.
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Even though Shiller says the Fed is doing a "brilliant job" navigating the twists and turns of the market and economy, he questions whether a move lower is necessary.
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In hindsight, 1959 marked an epic sea change, as the below chart (which uses data from Yale's Robert Shiller) shows: Interestingly, opinions on what drove the shift are divided.
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The Shiller Enhanged CAPE fund outperformed 99 percent of its peer group in 2014 and 2015 with returns of 17.86 percent and 4.65 percent, respectively, according to Morningstar data.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas increased 2.7% in the 12 months to March after rising 3.0% the prior month.
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In September, after the market had regained some of August's losses, Yale economist Robert Shiller, a Nobel laureate, told CNBC that the stock market might be in a bubble.
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Other data released Tuesday included the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index, which showed U.S. home prices rose 5.9 percent to a 31-month high in January.
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The Standard & Poor's CoreLogic Case-Shiller rose 5.5 percent in September from a year ago, boosting the home price index to 0.1 percent above the July 2006 record high.
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As Shiller also pointed out, the CAPE ratio was about the same in 20003, but it continued skyward as the dot-com froth escalated into a full-fledged bubble.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Composite increased 5.7 percent from the same time in the previous year, versus analyst estimates for a 5.9 percent increase.
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"The Overinflated Fear of Being Priced Out of Housing" (The Upshot, Economic View, June 12), Robert J. Shiller of Yale examined the steep price increases found in some cities.
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Shiller himself has been reluctant to push the CAPE level, recently telling CNBC that while he believes the U.S. market is expensive, he wouldn't encourage investors to sell aggressively.
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Whether disappointing earnings enter the picture, or investors become nervous due to Mideast or trade war risks, Shiller contends it's often unclear what sparks an extended stock market downturn.
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The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index on Wednesday is expected to show home prices in October rose 4.9% year-over-year, according to economists surveyed by Refinitiv.
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Nationally, values rose 6.4 percent annually in April, down from a 6.5 percent gain the previous month, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.
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"The Shiller CAPE is at 30 times its historical average, which has been something like 16.8 times, so clearly that's a concern," Andrew told CNBC's Street Signs on Thursday.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index rose 5.9 percent in July compared a year ago, better than the 5.7 percent expected by economists polled by Reuters.
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Stepping aside from central bank news, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed home prices rose 5.5 percent in April, below the expected increase of 5.8 percent.
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According to Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller, this has taken U.S. equity valuations to very lofty levels that have been experienced only three times in the past one hundred years.
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President Donald Trump is synonymous with a "revolution" taking place in U.S. politics and society, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, but not in a good way.
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Robert Shiller : Right well China will eventually slow down its growth, same thing that happened in Japan, as you mature you can't keep the same breakneck pace of growth.
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Shiller, who is not serving as a presidential campaign advisor, thinks there's a very good chance President Trump will get re-elected and a recession may be years away.
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Prices have reached new peaks in seven major metropolitan markets (Denver, Dallas, Portland Oregon, San Francisco, Seattle, Charlotte, and Boston), according to the latest report from S&P/Case-Shiller.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index moved up 6.6 percent from a year earlier, led by outsize gains in Seattle, Las Vegas and San Francisco.
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Nobel–winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC on Wednesday "I'm nervous" about Donald Trump, but said there's no doubt the president-elect's personality has ignited widespread excitement about future prosperity.
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The Trump-driven rally in the stock market since Election Day may very well spill over into the housing market, even with the expectation of higher interest rates, Shiller said.
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Since the market low in March 2009, dividends have risen by 48% in real terms and real share prices have risen by 167%, according to Robert Shiller of Yale University.
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The messages on Chicago Code Blue were provided to BuzzFeed News by Shiller Preyar, a civil rights law firm in Chicago that collected years of comments from the Facebook group.
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A third report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite home price index of 20 U.S. metropolitan areas rose 3.0 percent in February from a year ago.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which measures all nine U.S. census divisions, was also up 5.1 percent in June from 5.0 percent the previous year.
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The cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE), as calculated by Robert Shiller of Yale University, averages profits over ten years and is used by many as an important valuation indicator.
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"DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE similarly outperformed in 2015 in choppy equity markets and while it lost money in January, it lost less than the S&P 500 index," Rosenbluth said.
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The S&P/Case Shiller 20-city composite index, which tracks the nation's largest cities, gained 5.7 percent year-over-year in January, up from 5.5 percent the previous month.
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The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of U.S. home prices in 20 metropolitan areas shows average prices have declined on a monthly basis for eight months in a row.
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U.S. home prices rose slightly less than what was anticipated for the month of March, according to new data from the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.
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"What Case and Shiller put together is really the gold standard for price changes in the housing market," Edward Glaeser, a professor of economics at Harvard, said in an interview.
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Fund managers don't buy the stock market at a Shiller P/E north of 30 because it predicts good future returns, they do it because they fear being left behind.
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President Donald Trump's corporate tax cuts are probably here to stay but it's likely a different story for his tariffs, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC on Monday.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 2202-city home price index increased 2628 percent, after posting a solid 28500 percent gain in July, according to a report released on Tuesday.
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Meanwhile, Robert Shiller, the Yale economist who's spent a lifetime studying asset price bubbles, reports that American shares are the most expensive in the world relative to underlying corporate earnings.
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Stepping aside from central bank news, a slew of economic releases should come out on Tuesday including the S&P /Case-Shiller Home Price Index due out at 9.00 a.m.
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Right now, no immediate recession is in sight and, as Robert Shiller, the Yale economist, recently wrote, economists have a miserable track record in projecting recessions a year in advance.
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He reached out to 20 of Wall Street's biggest names — from Robert Shiller to Rick Rieder — and put together a monster compilation of the 20 charts everyone needs to know.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller report published on Tuesday said its 20-city index was up 5.1 percent, after a rise of 5.0 percent in the year to July.
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They also are working on creating a kind of index of valuations of VC-backed firms, something like the Case Shiller index in the residential real-estate market, Gornall said.
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"I'm not as negative as it may seem, but I think that the thing that's driving bitcoin at the moment, like other examples of bubbles, is a story," Shiller said.
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The same goes for Buffett's reportedly preferred gauge, equity market cap-to-gross national product, and the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, created by Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller.
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On a national level, prices rose 3.2% annually in September, up from a 3.1% gain in August, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.
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Having won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2013 for his work on asset prices and inefficient markets, Shiller is attending a Nobel Prize winner dinner at Davos in 2018.
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A fourth report on Tuesday showed the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite price index rose 6.5 percent year-on-year in May after increasing 6.7 percent in April.
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Separately, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite home price index of 20 U.S. metropolitan areas rose 5.9 percent in July from a year ago after increasing 6.4 percent in June.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.3 percent in November on a year-over-year basis, up from a 5.1 percent climb in October.
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Robert Shiller, winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, told CNBC on Thursday that he's concerned about the upheaval in the stock market and signs of a slowdown in the economy.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.7 percent in April on a year-over-year basis, after an unrevised 5.9 percent increase in March.
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And, even with all that bizarre, intense drama, Jess is so competent, her own ex-boyfriend, "fancyman" Russell Shiller (Dermot Mulroney), still wants her to run the non-profit he's creating.
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The Case-Shiller home price index for the Seattle metro declined again by a tad on a month-to-month basis — first back-to-back declines since the end of 2014!
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And because the Case-Shiller data tend to lag median existing home prices, there are likely to be "hefty increases" for the next few months, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson.
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Now, with home sales increasing — the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 5.4 percent year-over-year in January — people are feeling better about spending money on their dwellings.
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With a little help from President Donald Trump's pro-business proposals, it's not hard to see the market surge 50 percent, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC on Wednesday.
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ET. In economic news, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite rose 5.8 percent year-over-year in November, topping expectations and faster than the 5.5-percent increase in October.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index, which tracks housing prices, rose 5.1 percent in 20 metropolitan areas in October on a year-over-year basis, according to the Times.
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Separately, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite home price index of 20 U.S. metropolitan areas rose 6.3 percent in December from a year ago after increasing 6.4 percent in November.
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While that may be the case in certain local markets, nationally home values have gained about 10 percent in that time, according to the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index.
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The observation came from American economist Robert Shiller, who compared the cryptocurrency to the bimetallism fad of the late 19th century when both gold and silver were accepted as legal tender.
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Another, the economist Robert Shiller, won a Nobel Prize for proposing new types of insurance instruments that would enable households to mitigate the impact of economywide recessions and real estate crashes.
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While Shiller does not own any bitcoin, many of his students have bought them as fractions and he says many others have likely made a lot of money off their investments.
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Shiller, a Yale University economics professor, said he believes much of the current pricing has to do with the mentality of the "Trump boom" after President Donald Trump's victory in 2016.
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Housing prices have since rebounded significantly and late last year stood at their highest levels since 2007, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas.
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When stocks crashed in 1987, the economist Robert Shiller carried out a real-time survey of investor motivations; it turned out that the crash was essentially a pure self-fulfilling panic.
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Nobel laureate Robert Shiller thinks investors ought to ignore the recent burst in corporate profits and focus on longer-term valuation, which he says carries foreboding news for the stock market.
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Shiller says it is time to start thinking of these narratives as a form of disease that are transmitted by word of mouth and that follow contagion models described by epidemiologists.
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Real home prices rose 22005 percent from February 22004 to December 21970, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, corrected for inflation by the Consumer Price Index.
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Robert Shiller: So he just got into a spat with Joe Biden, the former V.P. of the United States, and the language was like schoolyard I'm going to beat you up.
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Ahead of their first-day session kicking off on Friday, they met with prominent academics, including Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, for informal talks on ways to boost the global economy.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which measures all nine U.S. census divisions, was up 5.6 percent on an annual basis in November from 5.5 percent in October.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which measures all nine U.S. census divisions, was up 5.3 percent on an annual basis in August from 5.0 percent in July.
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According to StreetEasy, home prices in New York have increased by roughly 19 times since 1959, based on data from the U.S. Census and the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.7 percent in January on a year-over-year basis, from a downwardly revised 5.5 percent increase in December.
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Considering the 's recent surge to record highs, Shiller makes the point that Trump's win has driven investors into the market, and that optimism about his presidency could continue to drive gains.
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Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Shiller says that the state of the economy, housing and stock markets, combined with continued low interest rates, could mean the U.S. is due for a recession.
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The following inversion caused the Great Recession in which the S&P 500 dropped 50 percent and, according to the Case/Shiller 3503-City Composite Index, home prices fell over 30 percent.
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ET, the Philadelphia Fed's non-manufacturing business outlook survey is scheduled to be released, followed by S&P/Case-Shiller house price index and the FHFA house price index at 9 a.m.
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A separate report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas increased 0.5 percent in March after rising 0.8 percent in February.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index posted a 6.4 percent year-over-year gain, up from 6.2 percent the previous month, according to a Tuesday report.
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ET for Christmas EveTuesday — US markets closed for Christmas Wednesday — S&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndexThursday — Consumer confidence for December and new home sales for NovemberFriday — Pending home sales for November
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Enter Robert Shiller, who has made an award-winning, legendary career of assessing asset prices; after all, that's precisely what he won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for in 2013.
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The S&P/Case Shiller said on Tuesday its composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.7 percent in January on a year-over-year basis, matching the increase the month before.
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Home prices increased at an annual rate of 6.2 percent in January compared to the previous year, according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data that measures home prices across the country.
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In an exclusive interview with Business Insider, Shiller highlighted a more recent book that addresses lingering misconceptions about the 2008 crisis and informs investors about how the next one is shaping up.
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Robert Shiller, a Nobel Prize-winning economist at Yale, has described Mr. Trump's cheerleading as the driving force behind the continuation of the now-record economic expansion over the last three years.
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After the fact, people tried to come up with various explanations of the crash, but Shiller managed to interview a large number of traders in real time, as the crash was happening.
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The fear of artificial intelligence and its ability to displace workers pose an "existential threat" to our sense of economic strength, Robert Shiller, the Nobel Memorial Prize-winning Yale University economist, said.
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Stock markets might be continuing their run higher this year but Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC Tuesday that a market correction could come at any time and without warning.
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The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence, and Fed chair Jay Powell will deliver his first monetary policy testimony before a House panel at 10:253 a.m. Eastern.
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"Then, we have a new form of money that ... sounds extremely revolutionary and involves a very clever use of cryptography that you can spend all afternoon trying to figure out," Shiller said.
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After flattening slightly in May, price increases jumped again in June, now up 5.8 percent nationally compared with a year ago, according to the latest release from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller.
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The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio developed by economist Robert Shiller, which smooths out the profit for S&P 500 constituents over a decade, has been running at over 30 times.
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To live up to his opportunity, Mr. Trump should bring in the best of the business community, rather than the most loyal, writes Robert J. Shiller, Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.6 percent in December on a year-over-year basis, up from a downwardly adjusted 5.2 percent climb in November.
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A third report showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 6.3 percent in June on a year-over-year basis after increasing 6.5 percent in May.
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Over the past few months, some experts have argued the current trend is long in the tooth and that stock valuations (as measured by metrics, such as the Shiller P/E) are stretched.
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Bill Gates recently argued that we should tax robots, and [Nobel Prize winning economist] Robert Shiller has argued that automation technology is like alcohol—it has negative externalities and therefore should be taxed.
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As the Nobel-prize winning economist Robert Shiller pointed out in the New York Times, home values have risen less than one percent a year for the past century, making them "disappointing" investments.
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Whitehouse instead is working on legislation to implement a "carbon fee," an idea that has the backing of prominent economists such as former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Nobel laureate Robert Shiller.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index report on Tuesday showed that home prices rose 5.1 percent in August as fewer homes were available for sale amid growing demand.
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"For consumers, these narratives affect decisions on whether to spend or save, whether to take a demanding or an easy job, whether to take a risk or stick with something safer," Shiller said.
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Market capitalization to gross domestic product, the Shiller P/E ratio, and the median price to sales ratio are just a few important metrics that have put the current marketplace in rarified air.
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Robert Shiller, Nobel Prize-winning economist and Yale University professor, told The Journal that people don't need as much space in their homes as society becomes technologically advanced, Business Insider's Tanza Loudenback reported.
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A separate report showed the S&P/Case Shiller composite home price index of 20163 metropolitan areas rose 5.8 percent in the year to November, adding to a 5.5 percent increase in October.
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" Nobel Prize-winning economists Robert Shiller and Joseph Stiglitz have echoed these sentiments, warning that the rise of cryptocurrencies resembles a bubble and that the anonymity of bitcoin can lead to "nefarious activity.
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This narrative proved so appealing that under the Reagan administration the top federal income tax bracket went from 70% to 28% and "touched off an intense public mandate for tax cutting," Shiller writes.
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The unemployment rate just dipped to a 50-year low, but Nobel laureate Robert Shiller says the number may not be the best indicator of the strength of the job market and economy.
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We'll get a slew of housing data tomorrow including the Case-Shiller home prices index and new homes sales, which are expected to rebound in October, boosted by a crunch in existing homes.
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And consider the following: At this level, it's still pretty far above the historical median for one crucial ratio of stock prices to earnings that the Nobel laureate Robert J. Shiller has developed.
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Prices rose 240 percent in the 12 months to June and now stand 4.3 percent higher than the pre-crisis peak, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price index.
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Investors are no longer skeptical enough about corporate earnings and in turn have made the U.S. stock market the most expensive in the world, Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller told CNBC on Tuesday.
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A separate report showed that the Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.7 percent in December on a year-over-year basis, matching the increase in the previous month.
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"We find evidence that investors use recent market performance to estimate probabilities about a crash," Shiller, his Yale colleague William Goetzmann and Dasol Kim of Case Western Reserve University write in a working paper.
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Some experts consider this to be a fairly good indicator of recessions, but Robert Shiller, the Nobel-prize winning economist and Yale professor, says he's not convinced it will hold true this time around.
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The Case-Shiller index for Portland declined a tad, and is now back where it had been three months ago — the first monthly decline since September 2016, and in line with seasonal price patterns.
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As a measure of animal spirits, Robert Shiller, a Nobel prize-winning economist, adjusts the S&P 500's price-earnings ratio by comparing the current price to the 10-year average of earnings.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of prices in 20 metropolitan areas is forecast to rise 4.9 percent in 2017 and 4.0 percent next year, according to the poll of about 30 analysts.
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And while we don't know much about what's coming next, we do know that Russell "Fancyman" Shiller will make a comeback, baby Schmidt should be past the terrible twos, and... Jess gets a piercing?
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A third report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas rose 2.4% in May from a year ago after increasing 2.5% in April.
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"Practically no one, outside of computer science departments, can explain how cryptocurrencies work, and that mystery creates an aura of exclusivity, gives the new money glamour, and fills devotees with revolutionary zeal," Shiller said.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 13-City Composite Home Price Index posted a 6.4 percent year-over-year gain in October, up from 6.2 percent the previous month, according to a Tuesday report.
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James Andrew, head of investment management for Redmayne Bentley, said that the S&P500 cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, known as CAPE or the Shiller PE, was at 30 times its historical average.
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Home prices in Seattle have risen faster than anywhere in the United States except San Francisco since the Standard & Poor's CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price indexes began tracking real estate values 18 years ago.
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Nationally, personal income per capita has risen 22018 percent since the end of 221, while the S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index is up 229 percent (neither figure is adjusted for inflation).
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Of primary interest will be some housing reports: The closely watched Case-Shiller index of home prices hits Tuesday, the same day we'll also get a report on new home sales and consumer confidence.
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The term "animal spirits," the title of the 2009 book co-authored by Shiller, is used to describe the intangibles that psychologically drive excitement on Wall Street or in a particular sector, such as housing.
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But, as Sherman likes to say, when we launched the Shiller Fund we weren't exactly wildly bullish on the equity market and yet the equity market has done great and the fund has substantially outperformed.
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Other data on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas increased 5.3 percent in the 12 months to November after rising 5.1 percent in October.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices is a monthly report published on the last Tuesday of each month and tracks the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided.
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The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio kept by Yale economics professor Robert Shiller is at levels topped only by the peaks before the dotcom bubble burst in 2000 and the Great Crash in 1929.
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A second report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.7 percent in May on a year-over-year basis after increasing 5.8 percent in April.
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For example, the Shiller S&P 203 cylical-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) which is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 220 years is at 22001x versus its average of 22008x.
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Prices were still gaining by 3.1% annually in June, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index, but that is half the gain that homeowners were seeing a year ago.
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But the equity markets have clearly been bullish enough to drive the Shiller CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) — a measure of how expensive stocks are compared with underlying company earnings — to nearly 33.
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"(Bitcoin) might totally collapse and be forgotten and I think that's a good likely outcome but it could linger on for a good long time, it could be here in 100 years," Shiller told CNBC.
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" Shiller thinks this happens because of excessive group-think: "Experts, when they get together in committees, they get kind of shy about expressing thoughts that are not accepted, not based on accepted theories and wisdom.
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"The strange situation is in many cases highly predictive of how children will develop their self-confidence, their problem-solving ability, their independence, their language competence, their ability to form social relationships," Dr. Shiller said.
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Since home prices last bottomed in 2012, following the epic housing crash, 12 of the 20 cities tracked by S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller have reached new highs, although those are not adjusted for inflation.
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There may be rumblings about lowering the cap on mortgage interest rate deductions, but it would have a "rather small effect" on the housing market, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC on Wednesday.
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President Donald Trump's tariffs proposal will have an "immediate disruption effect" and will hurt most people, except perhaps steel workers and those who own stocks in steel companies, economist Robert Shiller told CNBC on Friday.
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Nobel-prize winning economists Robert Shiller and Joseph Stiglitz were also at the annual meeting, and they predicted pain ahead for the U.S. economy if Beijing and Washington ramp up tit-for-tat trade penalties.
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A third report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas increased 6.8 percent in the 12 months to February after rising 6.4 percent in January.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas rose 0.6 percent in October from the previous month, outpacing expectations of economists polled by Reuters for a 0.5 percent increase.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index showed home prices in major metropolitan areas rose 5.7 percent in December, continuing the trend of 5-plus percent growth, though the pace of gains slowed slightly.
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Earlier that day, the closely watched Case-Shiller home price survey also hits, giving an indicator of which way home prices are heading and whether it's a good time to be a buyer or a seller.
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A key figure was Yale professor Robert Shiller, who had been publishing research since the 1980s that concluded that the volatility in the stock market could not plausibly be explained by rational expectations of future returns.
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A separate report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite home price index of 20 U.S. metropolitan areas rose 5.5 percent in August from a year ago after increasing 5.9 percent in July.
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But Shiller suggests that if economists tracked how many times inflation and spending was mentioned in newspapers or sermons, and what people felt about the price of goods, they could find out whether the campaigns helped.
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A separate report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas increased 6.4 percent in the 12 months to January after rising 6.3 percent in December.
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The latest poll of nearly 45 analysts taken May 210-June 21 showed the S&P/Case Shiller composite index of home prices in 210 cities is expected to gain a further 27 percent this year.
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As it turns out, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller — who successfully predicted the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the mid-2000s — is also perturbed by the brewing situation.
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The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which measures all nine U.S. census divisions, was also up 5.6 percent in October from the previous year, extending a new high from the previous month.
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"The phrase 'artificial intelligence' today is getting an even bigger surge, and represents a more existential threat to our sense of economic virility," Shiller told Business Insider in reference to the huge spike in the chart.
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Shiller, who won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2013 for his work on asset prices and inefficient markets, made the comments before bitcoin and other digital coins saw a huge sell-off earlier this week.
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Shiller: The people who take positions like Fed or Treasury Secretary become intuitive narrative economists even though they weren&apost taught any of that in grad school, because it&aposs so obvious that the narrative matters.
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"High animal spirits in the stock market are often associated with the disparagement of traditional authority and expert opinion," Shiller wrote, which he said is being inspired by President Donald Trump's "Make America Great Again" narrative.
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This work — Matthew Desmond on urban housing, Mario Luis Small on social networks and inequality, Kathryn Edin on poverty, Robert Shiller on narrative economics — highlights multi-factor causes and the intertwining of cultural and material influences.
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A third report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas rose 2.5% in April on a year-over-year basis after increasing 2.6% in March.
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The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.4 percent year-over-year in March, matching the increase the month before and beating the 5.2 percent estimate from a Reuters poll of economists.
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The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 103 metropolitan areas rose 5.4 percent year-over-year in March, matching the increase the month before and beating the 5.2 percent estimate from a Reuters poll of economists.
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The CAPE ratio (cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio), a widely followed measure designed by Yale economist Robert Shiller that compares stock prices to corporate earnings, is currently at about 32, or double its historical median of 16.
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In the lead-up to Friday's release of the government's August employment report, investors get the Case-Shiller home price index tomorrow, the ADP private payrolls report Wednesday, and productivity figures and the ISM manufacturing index Thursday.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices is a monthly report published on the last Tuesday of each month, constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided.
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With the Index closing in on record highs this week, the question of how richly stocks are valued looms large in the market conversation—and well-known academics Robert Shiller and Jeremy Siegel have very different answers.
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According to the S&P/CoreLogic/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (which I helped to create) as of September, the prices were 53 percent higher than they were at the bottom of the market in 2012.
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My view of markets was shaped long ago by a classic analysis by Robert Shiller — who later won a richly deserved Nobel Prize — did of the huge October 1987 stock crash, which came out of the blue.
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An earlier version of this article misstated the year John Y. Campbell and Robert J. Shiller wrote a research paper about inflation-linked bonds known as Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or T.I.P.S. It was 1996, not 1966.
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The overvaluation comes from looking at rolling price-to-earnings levels over the past 10 years (the "Shiller CAPE"), a comparison of market values to asset values (Tobin's Q), and the high levels of household stock ownership.
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Other data on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas rose 6.6 percent in April on a year-over-year basis after increasing 6.7 percent in March.
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Speaking to CNBC ahead of the World Economic Forum (WEF) , Shiller, a renowned economist and academic who is also attending the Forum, said he was concerned about the changes in society and politics heralded by the president.
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The stock rally since Donald Trump won the presidency can only be explained by psychology — an overwhelming sense of excitement about the prospects for growth — not efficient markets, Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC on Wednesday.
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While investors pulled cash from the firm's flagship fund, the DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE fund and DoubleLine Flexible Income Fund were two of the firm's funds that attracted new money in December - $266 million and $113 million, respectively.
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A second report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of house prices in 20 metropolitan areas rose 143 percent in July on a year-on-year basis after increasing 5.6 percent in June.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 26metropolitan areas rose 5.7 percent in April on a year-over-year basis after a 5.9 percent gain in March, which matched the fastest pace in nearly three years.
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Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University and a Nobel laureate, says the steep run-up in this market rally is similar to the excesses of the 1920s before the October 1929 market crash and Great Depression.
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At the start of 1985 American shares traded on a cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (a figure which averages profits over ten years) of ten; now the ratio is over 31, according to Robert Shiller of Yale University.
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Robert Shiller of Yale won a Nobel prize in economics for work showing that the overall stockmarket was far more volatile than it should be if traders were adequately forecasting the fundamental data: the cashflows received by investors.
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On Tuesday, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA index indicated a 5.8-percent year-over-year gain in August, the first time in a year home prices had risen less than 6.0 percent.
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The CAPE ratio, a metric devised by Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, has been shown to be a useful tool for forecasting returns over the long term, but it can be misleading for short-term market timing.
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A second report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of house prices in 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.7 percent in June on a year-over-year basis after a similar increase in May.
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Robert Shiller — the Nobel laureate and famed Yale University economist — described in a New York Times column how market narratives could infest investor psyche, exacerbating the size and direction of economic events in a sometimes self-fulfilling way.
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Ahead of the open, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index — which measures all nine U.S. census divisions — rose 5.6 percent in October from the previous year, extending a new high from the previous month.
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The indicator takes into account five factors: growth momentum (measured by the average percentile for U.S. ISM indexes), the slope of the yield curve, core inflation, unemployment and stock valuations as measured by the Shiller price-earnings multiple.
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A separate report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of house prices in 20 metropolitan areas jumped 3.03 percent in September on a year-over-year basis after increasing 5.8 percent in August.
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A report from S&P/Case-Shiller on Tuesday showed house prices in the 2124.1-metro area increased 23.8 percent from a year ago in January, the smallest gain since September 2012, after rising 4.1 percent in December.
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Instead, he built a fire under animosity toward what has been called "the creative class" by Richard Florida, the demographer; the "plutonomy" by three analysts at Citigroup; and the "cosmopolitan class" by Robert Shiller, an economist at Yale.
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A second report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of house prices in 20 metropolitan areas rose 6.4 percent in November on a year-over-year basis after increasing 6.3 percent in October.
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But Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller says this election will be different as it is more of a referendum on President Donald Trump, adding he would not use this election to predict which way the market will go.
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Analysts have been citing the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) as indicating stocks are expensive, Citi noted, but it added that while the level was fairly high compared with its history, that may not mean much.
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The Shiller Enhanced CAPE fund, which actively invests in a diversified portfolio of bonds and floating rate loans, has two sources of return: an actively managed fixed income portfolio and a smart beta approach to the U.S. stock market.
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Home prices are still gaining, but those increases have been shrinking each month: They've fallen below 6 percent annually for the first time in a year, according to the much-watched S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index.
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Blackrock, the world's largest asset manager, is among those who argue that stock market valuation metrics such as the Shiller price/earnings ratio are no longer valid, and that the bull run can continue for several more years yet.
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In a third report on Tuesday, the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed that house prices increased a solid 5.4 percent in February from a year ago, down from a 5.7 percent increase in January.
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On the data front, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which measures all nine U.S. census divisions, was up 5.6 percent in October from the previous year, extending a new high from the previous month.
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Shiller cautioned that he is not predicting major calamity for the market but rather a much lower level of returns, in the 2.6 percent annual range, than investors have come to expect during the 9-year-old bull market.
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A third report from S&P/Case-Shiller on Tuesday showed house prices in the 2497-metro area increased 2000 percent from a year ago in December, the smallest gain since November 22.7, after rising 20173 percent in November.
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That's the upshot of a new analysis of data collected by Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller over decades showing that individual investors, and to a lesser extent institutional ones, wildly overrate the chances of a 1929- or 1987-style crash.
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The cyclically adjusted price-earnings (or CAPE) ratio developed by Shiller shows even greater overvaluation; that metric, which compares current prices to average earnings over the past 10 years adjusted for inflation, is more elevated than it's been since 2002.
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"The prospect of Fed tightening next year is keeping bonds under pressure, (Treasury) yields up and the dollar bid, and obviously the Case-Shiller data is helping that," said Kathy Lien, managing director at BK Asset Management in New York.
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Prices of houses and condos across the US surged 6.4% in April from a year earlier (not seasonally-adjusted), and a sharp 1% from March, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, released this morning.
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So here are the most splendid housing bubbles in major metro areas in the US: Boston: The Case-Shiller home price index for the Boston metro jumped nearly 2% from the prior month and is up 6.9% from a year ago.
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"That is going to be a substantial hit to people who are paying a lot of property taxes, and it might be a consideration that you make before you buy a big mansion in some high property tax state," said Shiller.
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Yields on Treasury notes with maturities between five and 30 years all touched their highest levels of the day after data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index showed U.S. metro area home prices increased modestly in October.
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"I'm not saying that I'm so bullish because I have a CAPE ratio that is bearish," said Shiller, who predicted on "Trading Nation" last March there was a 50% chance the economy would tip into a recession within 18 months.
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Though profits have recovered in recent years, they are still well below the long-term gains seen in three of the last seven cycles, based on inflation adjusted data for S&P 500 earnings provided by Yale economist Robert Shiller.
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A ramp up in U.S.-China trade tensions — which many are predicting in the wake of a new round of tariff threats from both sides — would immediately result in an economic crisis, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller.
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Shiller said he did not believe there would be a significant inflationary effect to the U.S. from steel and aluminum tariffs, but he warned that heated trade rhetoric from both sides could send the American economy reeling into a recession.
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The market appears pricey, Mr. Arnott said, based on the CAPE Shiller ratio, which compares share prices to the last 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings to get a valuation reading that adjusts for the shifts of the economic cycle.
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The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.4 percent in March on a year-over-year basis, matching the increase the month before and beating the 5.2 percent estimate from a Reuters poll of economists.
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Real average hourly wages of often debt-laden college graduates fell between 2000 and 2014, according to the Economic Policy Institute, while the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index jumped more than 25 percent, adjusted for inflation, over the same period.
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Another measure that looks at valuation over the past decade, the Cyclically Adjust Price to Earnings ratio, developed by Nobel laureate economist Robert Shiller, shows the index trading below the dotcom bubble record but around the same levels as the crash of 1929.
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Shiller said the economy that President Barack Obama is leaving for Trump looks "strong," though largely on the back of historically low rates by the Federal Reserve, which raised the cost of borrowing for only the second time in a decade in December.
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U.S. stock markets may have recovered slightly from sharp falls at the end of last year, but there's still a risk of a significant downward trend, Robert Shiller, a professor of economics at Yale University and a Nobel laureate, told CNBC Wednesday.
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The supply of homes for sale in December was the lowest in 23.4 years, according to the NAR, and annual home price gains nationally rose to 29 percent in November, compared with 103 percent in October, according to S&P/Case-Shiller.
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The Case-Shiller Index charted the remarkable rise of housing prices in the bubble that preceded the Great Recession, its subsequent bursting, the sharp declines in 2008 and 2009, and the slow but steady recovery in the real estate market since then.
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The price-to-earnings ratio of the , based on the past 12 months' results, was 16.2 in July 2007, the forward P/E was 20073 and the so-called Shiller P/E that uses the prior 10 years' average real earnings was 27.4.
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When it comes to U.S. data, the S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which measures all nine U.S. census divisions, was also up 5.6 percent in October from the previous year, extending a new high from the previous month.
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In a presentation earlier this year — in which he compared Mr. Trump's economic messaging to the spread of a pandemic virus — Mr. Shiller reported than 62 percent of newspaper articles that mentioned a "strong economy" from 2017 to 003 also mentioned Mr. Trump.
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Other data on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas rose 4.7 percent in November on a year-on-year basis, the smallest gain since January 2015, after advancing 5.0 percent in October.
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A report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas rose 4.7 percent in November on a year-on-year basis, the smallest gain since January 2015, after advancing 5.0 percent in October.
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Yet, the market appears to be more overvalued now than it was before the crisis, according to an indicator created by Robert Shiller, the Yale economist who won a Nobel Prize for his work on bubbles in the stock and real estate markets.
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Home appreciation in 20 U.S. cities slowed to its weakest level in almost seven years in June, as home price gains continued to cool across the country, data compiled from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller released on Tuesday showed.
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At the end of 2019, the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500, as developed by economist Robert Shiller, stood above 30, a level only meaningfully exceeded before the dot-com bust at the turn of the millennium.
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A third report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of house prices in 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.9 percent in February from a year ago, the largest gain since July 2014, after advancing 5.7 percent in January.
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Shiller, who won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2013 for his work on asset prices and inefficient markets, said that markets could "absolutely suddenly turn" and that he believed the bull market was hard to attribute totally to the U.S. political scene.
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Shiller, who won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2013 for his work on asset prices and inefficient markets, said he advocated some kind of "livelihood insurance" to mitigate against the potential loss of jobs or drop in incomes that AI could cause.
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As a comparison, home prices in Seattle were up more than 13 percent in May, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price report, while prices in Atlanta were just 5 percent higher and in Chicago just 3 percent higher.
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Coming this week:Tuesday — US building permits; US housing starts; S&P/Case-Shiller home prices; McCormick (MKC) and Carnival (CCL) earningsWednesday — US balance of trade data; Lululemon (LULU) earningsThursday — UK consumer confidence; US final estimate Q4 GDPFriday — Huawei earnings; Carmax (KMX) earnings
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Why it matters: The MBA survey released this morning follows weak numbers from the Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, which rose just 2% month-over-month in July and did not rise at all on a monthly basis after seasonal adjustments.
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The study looked at a survey Shiller has been carrying out which quizzes individual and institutional investors about a variety of topics, including asking them to assign a probability to the chances of a 1929- or 1987-type crash over the coming six months.
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The Case-Shiller national index of home prices in America rose to a new peak in September, climbing 2000% above the previous peak reached in July 24.3, before the bust in the housing market (adjusted for inflation, the index is still 43% below that mark).
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The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.4 percent in April on a year-over-year basis, a slight dip from the 5.5 percent climb in the prior month but matched the estimate from a Reuters poll of economists.
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Using the Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) metric, which divides real prices by the ten-year average of real earnings per share, EM equities were priced at a P/E multiple of 10 times in January, the lowest fourth percentile since 1990, he explained.
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"The new peak set by the S&P Case-Shiller CoreLogic national index will be seen as marking a shift from the housing recovery to the hoped-for start of a new advance," said David Blitzer, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
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The Shiller CAPE ratio, which compares stock prices to their earnings over a 10-year period, is at 31.43, about where it was when then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan gave his widely cited "irrational exuberance" speech in December 1996, according to calculations by Nomura.
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The only time valuations were higher was around the time of the stock market crash and beginning of the Great Depression in 1929 and during the dot-com boom in the late 1990s, according to the model formulated by Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller.
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"While the weakness in the FHFA house price data raised some concerns that the trend in house price appreciation had started to shift lower, so far, the Case-Shiller data do not support that view," said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.
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Coming this week: Monday — US markets close at 1 pm ET for Christmas Eve Tuesday — Markets closed for Christmas Wednesday — S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index Thursday — Consumer confidence for December and new home sales for November Friday — Pending home sales for November
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NEW YORK, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Home appreciation in 20 U.S. cities slowed to its weakest level in almost seven years in June, as home price gains continued to cool across the country, data compiled from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller released on Tuesday showed.
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CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.1 percent in October on a year-over-year basis, up from a downwardly adjusted 5 percent climb in September and matching the estimate of a 5.1 percent gain from a Reuters poll of economists.
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Coming this week:Monday — Apple eventTuesday — US building permits; US housing starts; S&P/Case-Shiller home prices; McCormick (MKC) and Carnival (CCL) earningsWednesday — US balance of trade data; Lululemon (LULU) earningsThursday — UK consumer confidence; US final estimate Q4 GDPFriday — Huawei earnings; Carmax (KMX) earnings
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"I think that in some sense, he might be responsible for the show he is putting on for some of the increase in stock prices, but I don't think it is rational," said Robert J. Shiller, a Yale University economist and a 2013 Nobel laureate.
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After averaging over 43 percent growth last year, the S&P/Case Shiller composite index of U.S. home prices in 20 metropolitan areas is expected to gain a further 5.6 percent this year and 4.3 percent in 260, faster than predicted just a few months ago.
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Coming next week: Tuesday — S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index; US new home sales; Micron (MICR) and FedEx (FDX) earningsWednesday — US crude oil inventories; General Mills (GIS) earningsThursday — Nike and Walgreens (WBA) earnings; US GDP third estimateFriday — US personal income and spending data; Constellation Brands earnings
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On the economics of employment risks, Russell pointed to several "fearful prophets," including Nobel laureates Robert Shiller, Mike Spence, and Paul Krugman; Klaus Schwab, head of the World Economic Forum; and Larry Summers, former Chief Economist of the World Bank and Treasury Secretary under Bill Clinton.
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Goldman's bear market indicator — which takes into account the unemployment rate, manufacturing data, core inflation, the term structure of the yield curve and stock valuation based on the Shiller PE ratio — is at a rare 73 percent, its highest level since the late 1960s and early 20123s.
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Valuations as measured by what is known as the "Shiller CAPE," or the measure of price to earnings over a 10-year period, just touched the same level as it was when former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan issued his "irrational exuberance" warning about stocks in December 1996.
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"The continuing run-up in home prices above the pace of income growth is simply not sustainable," wrote Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, in response to the latest price reading from the much-watched S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller Home Price Indices.
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His proprietary measure of equity prices judged against earnings over the past 10 years — the Shiller CAPE as it is known — shows valuation at its highest level since the turn of the century and well above the Black Tuesday mark that preceded the devastating 1929 crash.
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Goldman's separate "bear market indicator" — which takes into account the unemployment rate, manufacturing data, core inflation, the term structure of the yield curve and stock valuation based on the Shiller PE ratio — is at a rare 73 percent, its highest level since the late 1960s and early 1970s.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.1 percent in October on a year-over-year basis, up from a downwardly adjusted 5.0 percent climb in September and matching the estimate of a 5.1 percent gain from a Reuters poll of economists.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5 percent in July on a year-over-year basis, retreating from the 5.1 percent climb in June and short of the estimate calling for a 5.1 percent increase from a Reuters poll of economists.
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This is based largely on the so-called Shiller P/E, a ratio of the S&P 500 index to its trailing ten-year average earnings, which is now above 29 and higher than any period aside from the run-up to the 1929 and 2000 market peaks.
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It now exceeds the peak of Housing Bubble 2174 in July 21 by 22006%: Portland: The Case-Shiller home price index for the Portland metro jumped 22.4% from a month ago, 20.5% from a year earlier, and 22.7% from Portland's nutty peak of Housing Bubble 13 in July 21.
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While economists, housing advocates and housing industry lobbyists argue the effects of the Republican tax plan and worry about the possibility of higher interest rates, Shiller, who has studied the economics of housing dating back to the 1800s, sees very little rhyme or reason to any of it.
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"I tend to think it's not as great as you imagine because people are people, and I don't find that historically home prices have relied at all predictably to changes in things like interest rates," said Shiller, pointing to the huge boom in housing in the last decade.
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The Shiller price/equities ratio, which compares prices to earnings over a decade, is north of 30, a point it has reached only twice before - in 1929 just before that crash and in the Greenspan-driven bubble between 1997 and 2002, which featured the dotcom mania and its aftermath.
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According to my own data (relying on the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which I helped create), real home prices rose even more slowly over the same period — a total increase of 1.8 times, which comes to an average of only 0.6 percent a year.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.2 percent in May on a year-over-year basis, retreating from the 5.4 percent climb in the prior month and short of the estimate for a 5.5 percent increase from a Reuters poll of economists.
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The Nobel Prize-winning Robert J. Shiller, in his 2000 book "Irrational Exuberance," considers them simple enough, but the equally Nobel Prize-winning Eugene Fama is skeptical of the very concept of a bubble, partly because he believes that it's impossible to predict, mathematically speaking, whether you're in one.
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Coming this week: Monday — Apple event Tuesday — US building permits; US housing starts; S&P/Case-Shiller home prices; McCormick (MKC) and Carnival (CCL) earnings Wednesday — US balance of trade data; Lululemon (LULU) earnings Thursday — UK consumer confidence; US final estimate Q4 GDP Friday — Huawei earnings; Carmax (KMX) earnings
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Using the Robert Shiller cyclically adjusted PE comparison, which weighs price against earnings of the past 10 years, stocks are trading at highs seen only twice before — around the onset of the 2000 bear market and, even more ominously, the 1929 market crash that ultimately led to the Great Depression.
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"The new peak set by the S&P Case-Shiller CoreLogic National Index will be seen as marking a shift from the housing recovery to the hoped-for start of a new advance" said David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
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Speaking broadly about market sentiment, Shiller observed that "I don't think this is a particularly euphoric time," adding: "It is, I guess, for Trump voters who are enthusiastic about him, but I don't know that they feel that great at the moment with the way it has panned out so much."
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While the daily ups and downs of prices for stocks and bonds have long been easy to obtain and analyze, the housing market was much more opaque when Mr. Case teamed up in the 1980s with a Yale economist, Robert Shiller, to develop an economic model to track home values.
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READ MORE HERE >>Other good stories from the investing realm:Legendary investor Peter Borish describes how effective investing is like being a successful baseball manager — and shares his top trade for an economy racked with record debtNobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote the textbook on the 2 worst bubbles in recent history.
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Read more: Robert Shiller, Rick Rieder, and 18 more of the brightest minds on Wall Street reveal the most important charts in the worldShiller said a book by the economist Stuart Chase called "Men and Machines" popularized the idea of "technological unemployment," which refers to job losses caused by automation.
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"The cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE), a valuation measure created by economist Robert Shiller now stands over 27 and has been exceeded only in the 1929 mania, the 2000 tech mania and the 2007 housing and stock bubble," Alan Newman wrote in his Stock Market Crosscurrents letter at the end of November.
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However, a sample of responses to a question of how they feel about the post-election rally are telling in their lack of exuberance: Robert Shiller, the Nobel Prize winner who has warned in the past about elevated stock prices, said market values are high now, but that doesn't tell the whole story.
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On the property market, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index rose 5.2 percent year over year Still, home-price appreciation continues throughout much of the United States, David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement.
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Coming this week:Tuesday — S&P/Case-Shiller home price index; US and German consumer confidence; Eurozone business confidenceWednesday — Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) and Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) earnings; ExxonMobil (XOM) shareholder meetingThursday — Second estimate of US Q1 GDP; Dollar General (DG), DSW parent company Designer Brands, Gap and Costco earningsFriday — UK consumer confidence; US personal spending
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"In addition, we think the widening in the trade deficit reflected the end of the multi-year industrial recession in the U.S." A third report showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.7 percent in January on a year-over-year basis after increasing 5.5 percent in December.
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Shiller notes that bitcoin's amazing popularity can be explained because it is tied to many different narratives, including an anarchy narrative (use of the term began around 1880 and is tied up with freedom and the later "hacker ethic"), the desire for economic freedom, the fear of economic inequality, and the feeling of helplessness.
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For example, in a recent lecture Shiller noted the similarities between the charts comparing the outbreak of an Ebola epidemic in Liberia in 503 and the global unemployment rate for the last 20 years with a notable spike up during the financial crisis that began in 2008, spiked in 2009 and 2010, and then began tailing off.
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SS: And yet, we look at the valuations in certain assets-, TT: Mm. SS: We look at the housing market, we look at the level of the bond market, and the stock market, and there are a lot of people, including Yale Professor, Robert Shiller, who we were talking to earlier on, who just say that it doesn't feel right.
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Coming next week: Monday — US and UK markets closedTuesday — S&P/Case-Shiller home price index; US and German consumer confidence; Eurozone business confidenceWednesday — Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) and Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) earnings; ExxonMobil (XOM) shareholder meetingThursday — Second estimate of US Q1 GDP; Dollar General (DG), DSW parent company Designer Brands, Gap and Costco earningsFriday — UK consumer confidence; US personal spending -- CNN Business' Nathaniel Meyersohn contributed to this report.
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"Investing should never be about a moment in time; it should always be about a process over time," Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, tells CNBC Make It. In fact, Robert Shiller, the Nobel-prize winning economist and Yale professor, says trying to predict the market based on the latest decision by the Federal Reserve or other events is far from a winning investment strategy.
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Up next Monday: Dallas Fed manufacturing data Tuesday: Alibaba's Hong Kong listing; S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index; US consumer confidence; Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Best Buy (BBY), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Dell (DELL) and GameStop (GME) earnings Wednesday: US durable goods orders; US personal spending and income Thursday: US markets closed; EU business confidence Friday: Half day for US markets; UK and Japan consumer confidence; India and Canada GDP
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Note the historic spike in April: Denver: The index for the Denver metro jumped 1.2% from March, the 30th monthly increase in a row, is up 8.6% from a year ago, and 52% from the crazy peak in July 2006, with a historic spike in April: Dallas-Fort Worth: The Case-Shiller home price index for the Dallas-Fort Worth metro rose 0.9% from March, its 51st relentless monthly increase in a row, and 5.7% from a year ago.
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DATA/EVENTS 0745 France Detailed GDP Q4 0745 France Producer prices Jan 1330 U.S. GDP 2nd estimate Q4 1330 U.S. Goods trade balance Jan 1400 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller housing index Dec 1500 U.S. Consumer confidence Feb Three month LME copper Most active ShFE copper Three month LME aluminium Most active ShFE aluminium Three month LME zinc Most active ShFE zinc Three month LME lead Most active ShFE lead Three month LME nickel Most active ShFE nickel Three month LME tin Most active ShFE tin $1 = 6.8675 Chinese yuan renminbi
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WeWork used massive discounts — in some cases, essentially giving away space for 2 years — to try to poach customers from rivalsVMware's COO says that its $2.1 billion acquisition of Carbon Black is all about fixing cybersecurity, an industry 'going through turmoil'We got an exclusive look at the pitch deck this London startup used to raise $8.5 million from VCs to take on WhatsApp and SlackAnd more from across the BI newsroom:Inside the 'awkward,' 'tense,' and 'heated' private meeting between Elon Musk and Texans whom SpaceX is trying to buy out to fully realize its vision to reach MarsHow Jim Heckman — the slick businessman behind the mass layoffs at Sports Illustrated — became the most hated man in sports mediaNobel laureate Robert Shiller forewarned investors about the dot-com and housing bubbles.
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