But Sanders appears to be a candidate who overperforms in easy races.
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Buttigieg overperforms: In Iowa and New Hampshire, the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor overperformed polls and expectations.
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Minnesota is not Montana, but Klobuchar consistently overperforms baseline partisan fundamentals in a state that's only modestly Democratic-leaning.
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We know, for example, that Sanders routinely overperforms among voters who think the next president should be less liberal than President Obama.
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Mara Kuge, president and founder of Superior Music Publishing, said that the effect is unlikely to be comparable unless the movie overperforms dramatically.
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That's at least 11 nominations, plus another potential two in supporting actress (Margot Robbie) and makeup and hairstyling if Tarantino's late-'60s fantasia overperforms.
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Sanders is the only major candidate in the race who overperforms among Latinos, a critical constituency in not only Nevada but also the country as a whole.
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"Whenever a movie overperforms to this degree — becomes a tent pole — there is some kind of cultural accelerant at play," said Toby Emmerich, president of Warner Bros.
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" In any case, New Hampshire will likely provide a major bounce — in polling, media coverage, and fundraising — for whichever candidate pulls out a win or overperforms in the "expectations game.
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When Black Panther overperforms not just at home but abroad as well, it starts to demolish the notion that just because a movie stars black people, it's a "niche" film that won't be welcomed by international audiences.
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The other four women in this category are strongly positioned to repeat with Oscar, but do keep an eye on "The Farewell" star Awkwafina as well as Saoirse Ronan if "Little Women" overperforms at the box office.
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But the latest runs of major forecast models Friday morning were getting more extreme -- weather service meteorologists' best guess for the Baltimore area is in the realm of 24 to 03 inches, with more than 30 inches possible if the storm overperforms.
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But in a March Des Moines Register poll, the gold standard in the first caucus state, the results look only a little different than the national polls: Warren overperforms her national polling a little bit in Iowa; O'Rourke (who hadn't actually announced when this survey was taken) underperforms.
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