It's not because I overestimate the AI. It's because most people tend to overestimate human beings.
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Studies have shown we routinely overestimate how much sex other people are having; we likely overestimate how much fun they're having doing it, too.
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"I think people overestimate their ability to pick," he said.
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Men, on the other hand, tend to overestimate their skills.
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Similarly, central bankers often overestimate the durability of a boom.
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It's crucially important to neither under- nor overestimate these warnings.
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One reason may be that they overestimate their financial acumen.
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This also makes it easy to overestimate your own performance.
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EDF's Denison says this 10 percent may be an overestimate.
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It's impossible to overestimate the significance of this move for Microsoft.
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We often overestimate how vital we are at work, he said.
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"If you're on the ground, it's easy to overestimate," says McCarthy.
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Continentals tend to overestimate the odds of Britons regretting their decision.
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And Iran should not overestimate the support it enjoys in Europe.
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One can't overestimate the centrality of price signaling in market economics.
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"CEOs like to overestimate themselves and I'm no exception," said Witte.
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Second, boys tend to overestimate how interesting their own life is.
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Restraint bias occurs when we overestimate our capacity for impulse control.
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It's also easy to overestimate the thickness of Brexit's silver lining.
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"People overestimate the success of fertility treatment," Dr. Feinberg told INSIDER.
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"People greatly overestimate their control over their own cars," said Gould.
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I think we probably overestimate Trump's ability to really do things.
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It is difficult to overestimate the political importance of the Midwest.
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For example, white men often overestimate the presence and impact of minorities.
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Casual measurements taken by doctors overestimate blood pressure by about 19 mmHg.
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People also tend to overestimate the reach of the technologies to come.
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When making a budget, overestimate things like rent, transit, groceries and utilities.
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Cyber threats to the Baltic States and Poland are difficult to overestimate.
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Summing up, the GWU report seems to overestimate deaths by 2628 percent.
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The energy is impulsive, and people are likely to overestimate their capabilities.
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"I can't overestimate how big the meeting with NATO was," Trump continued.
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Unfortunately, that means we tend to overestimate the risk of novel dangers.
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One shouldn't overestimate the extent to which this exchange actually hurt Biden.
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Correction: This post originally included an overestimate of the 2019 mass shootings.
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Many Western economists suspect that Chinese statistics may overestimate recent growth, however.
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And I suspect that some managers overestimate the payoff of anonymous feedback.
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Organizations tend to overestimate how quickly they'll migrate to newer operating systems.
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Research suggests that people wildly overestimate the effectiveness of driver-assistance features.
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Did it just overestimate how "super" the "supercycle" of upgrades would be?
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"People overestimate the success of fertility treatment," Feinberg told Insider last year.
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Students overestimate the financial benefits of a college degree — by a lot.
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Democrats have tended to overestimate the matter, but only in fits and spurts.
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And they overestimate Mrs May's ability to sell a hard deal at home.
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The centrality of these "firsts" to the Clinton narrative is hard to overestimate.
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He may overestimate himself, but he may not be wrong all the time.
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We often overestimate how much information we can store in short-term memory.
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And It's hard to overestimate how important turnout is to Republicans this year.
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They simply don't know enough about what they're doing, and profoundly overestimate themselves.
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Many, many people grossly overestimate how capable they are in regards to fighting.
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"Some of these devices will dramatically overestimate the number of awakenings," Wyatt says.
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Many people underestimate their own stress level and overestimate their ability to cope.
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For one thing people hugely overestimate how much they talk about climate change.
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It is hard to overestimate how complex an asset sale like this is.
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I often feel that women radically overestimate what men notice or care about.
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Nonetheless, "It's hard to overestimate the relationship between Zimbabwe and China," Plaut said.
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Subordinates also often overestimate how comfortable they would feel recognizing and highlighting abuses.
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Reported fatality rates likely overestimate death rates because there are many undiagnosed cases.
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"We vastly overestimate our ability to dictate outcomes" to North Korea, Kang says.
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We discount risks, overestimate the benefits, and pursue paths we otherwise might not.
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It's impossible to overestimate the cultural impact of the original The Twilight Zone.
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Polls show that Americans overestimate how much federal spending goes to these programs.
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HE MAY OVERESTIMATE HIMSELF, BUT HE MAY NOT BE WRONG ALL THE TIME.'
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The New Health Care Americans tend to overestimate the problems in poorer nations.
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All this seems to have led China to overestimate its influence over Mr Trump.
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People typically drastically overestimate the president's ability to carry out a specific legislative agenda.
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What's more, risk tolerance is something people tend to overestimate when markets are booming.
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A big problem is that Mrs May and her ministers overestimate their negotiating strength.
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"You can't overestimate how those appearances established her as an artist," Mr. Reyes said.
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They overestimate and sign deals to produce quantities they can't fulfill, wiping out profits.
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Surveys routinely find that workers overestimate their performance and pay relative to their peers'.
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It's not uncommon for police to overestimate the age and size of black boys.
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Even the way we misunderstand them, or overestimate their power, tells us about ourselves.
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That figure may be an overestimate, but it is not entirely divorced from reality.
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Also, the drugs can overestimate the immune system, which can cause dangerous side effects.
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The idea of them is so charming that it's easy to overestimate their effects.
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Pessimism bias occurs when individuals overestimate how often negative things will happen to them.
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Then just overestimate how good you are at the game for a killer yarn.
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Second, and most markedly, polls tend to systematically overestimate or underestimate the true answer.
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The immediate future is going to happen and we always overestimate the short-term.
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Without a treaty limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear forces, China could overestimate their arsenals.
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The results of the study showed that we tend to overestimate our own assertiveness.
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"He's the latest guy in a long line to overestimate his model," Darcey said.
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Don't overestimate the harsh judgment of others, or "catastrophic interpretation," as therapists put it.
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If it doesn't, scientists can mistake snow for ice and overestimate the ice thickness.
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"I think we overestimate how much the DC chatter breaks through," the operative said.
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"I think people overestimate the downside risk of doing something like that," Ghodsi said.
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The Kamala coalition: It's easy to overestimate what the surprise departure of California Sen.
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Western analysts often overestimate the capability of parts of the Iranian military, he said.
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That kind of news coverage causes Americans to overestimate the danger posed by terrorism.
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But she works incessantly, and you cannot overestimate the importance of that in a president.
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Blocking the neurons from producing dopamine made them overestimate the amount of time that passed.
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But it might have captured the caravan at its peak — or simply been an overestimate.
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I accidentally overestimate the size of that mason jar and brew a bit too much.
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Americans routinely overestimate how many Latinos are immigrants, and particularly how many are unauthorized immigrants.
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MOTHERS SYSTEMATICALLY OVERESTIMATE THE CRAWLING OF THEIR SONS COMPARED TO THE CRAWLING OF THEIR DAUGHTERS.
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The Point: It is not possible to overestimate the influence cable TV has over Trump.
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However, let's stick with the lower end of this spectrum so as not to overestimate.
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Illusion of control is when people overestimate how much control they have over certain situations.
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The danger now is not to overestimate the risk of war, but to underestimate it.
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MORE has warned the party not to overestimate the American public's appetite for sweeping change.
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It may help to overestimate so it doesn't cause you to feel overwhelmed or rushed.
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This, she says, may have caused her therapists to overestimate how well she was doing.
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This is because mainstream media tends to overestimate individual hackers' capabilities yet underestimate our ethics.
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Teenagers and police officers alike radically overestimate the number of women who lie about rape.
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Men are also more likely to overestimate how well they'll perform compared with their peers.
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The less known it is, the more people may fear it, and overestimate its threat.
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In these cases, our anxiety causes us to overestimate the level of risk we face.
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They overestimate their abilities and underestimate how long change takes, so they expect immediate results.
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I think there's a tendency to overestimate how sensational of a claim he is making.
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But the Americans who fear demographic change tend to overestimate how rapidly it's coming, anyway.
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Conventional exit polls tend to overestimate the non-college educated white share of the population.
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French pollsters have in recent elections also tended to overestimate her appeal rather than underplay it.
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"People tend to overestimate their physical activity and underestimate how much food they eat," Stanforth said.
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As a whole, we tend to overestimate just how many calories we lose during a workout.
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The Arizona Republic reported that for some citizens, 10 trick-or-treaters could be an overestimate.
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Will that make them more lucrative, or a hilarious overestimate of what people might reasonably buy?
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In professors Flynn and Adams's research, they also find that people overestimate the distastefulness of regifting.
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But like the Farm Bureau data, those number likely overestimate the actual price consumers are paying.
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They may be ignorant; sceptics worried about the scale of immigration tend to vastly overestimate it.
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"We didn't want to overestimate the program or give them too much credit," another official said.
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"People tend to overestimate the impact of not getting a deal done with China," Hickey said.
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Forecasters overestimate the extent to which the future will look like the recent past, they reckon.
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But we should not overestimate the impact that Bannon's departure will have on this White House.
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They overestimate their ability and judge their standing in the office against those with more talent.
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We always overestimate the change in two or three years and underestimate it in a decade.
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Many investors still underestimate the strength of the global economy and overestimate their exposure to international.
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I know that professionals tend to overestimate work hours; we remember our busiest weeks as typical.
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TV that she believes people tend to overestimate the appeal of women candidates to women voters.
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But let's not overestimate the importance of these economic forecasts: Most people never actually read them.
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And more generally, patients tend to vastly overestimate the benefits and underestimate the harms of treatment.
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Now they can maintain their irrational confidence and continue to overestimate their political forecasting batting average.
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Just as colleges may be tempted to underestimate budgets, there are incentives to overestimate as well.
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Imagine this will lead us to overestimate the frequency of mental health problems in prison vs.
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Researchers cite a confidence gap: Men tend to overestimate their abilities, while women consistently underestimate theirs.
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But people attracted by the chance winning of a life-changing prize might overestimate their odds.
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First, we should not overestimate the value of U.S. favor or the attraction of U.S. carrots.
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This misunderstanding can lead many to overestimate their influence among their peers and form cooperative relationships.
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Partly because we&aposve been socially conditioned to underestimate ourselves, while men tend to overestimate themselves.
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They find that politicians from both parties dramatically overestimate the conservatism of the voters they represent.
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Yeah, people always overestimate the reach of cable news, but people know who Bill O'Reilly is.
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The question is whether it's a good thing, on balance, for Americans to overestimate wind and solar.
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It's hard to overestimate just how big of a figure Burnett himself was when The Apprentice launched.
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If anything, the report may overestimate how many people have access to buprenorphine, Maxwell said by email.
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On the other hand, bosses seem to overestimate how much time employees spend on activities like gossip.
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Banks also tend to overestimate the ease of replicating cross-selling models that have worked at home.
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But they tend to overestimate the benefits and ignore the costs of expanding university education (see article).
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Because if publishers get it wrong and overestimate their print runs, the economic ramifications can be painful.
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But perfect matching is impossible, and the effect is to overestimate the number of voters without identification.
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The survey did overestimate GOP turnout as I suggested, but to a lesser extent than I calculated.
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Second, the suburbs remain a great problem for the Republicans in ways that are hard to overestimate.
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They are interesting and perhaps even exciting, and it's thus easy to overestimate their longer-term impacts.
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Most people don't like traditional pick-up lines, and men tend to overestimate how interested women are.
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On the contrary, research shows that affluent Americans tend to overestimate their knowledge about health and nutrition.
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I don't think it is possible to overestimate the importance of having this kind of role model.
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They overestimate costs, miss important deadlines and don't apply to selective colleges that they're qualified to attend.
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Americans, and higher-income whites in particular, vastly overestimate progress toward economic equality between blacks and whites.
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"You cannot overestimate the influence of Tony Bourdain on the food world these days," she told me.
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Humans aren't so great at figuring this out for themselves, and financial advisers may overestimate clients' intestinal fortitude.
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Many legislators think their constituents are more conservative than they really are—Republicans overestimate by 20 percentage points.
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The results tell us LGBTQ people overestimate their share of the population and say Instagram makes them sad.
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Both views are seen in Brussels as delusional, for they overestimate what is an inherently weak bargaining position.
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Also, it seems highly likely that we'd overestimate our ability to deal with a large number of them.
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Startups will gladly store, manage and deliver your items Technophiles tend to overestimate the pace of mass adoption.
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The most common target of this criticism is that Americans severely overestimate the amount their government spends abroad.
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Clinton's team declined to comment, but in general the party's approach to Trump was to not overestimate him.
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Not only do we overestimate our gifts, abilities, and insights, we chronically underestimate costs, timelines, and challenges. Why?
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And when an elderly family member passes away, their relatives might overestimate their age on the death certificate.
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For instance, research shows that attachment-avoidant people tend to overestimate the intensity of their partners' negative emotions.
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A striking feature about FGM in several countries is that women massively overestimate men's support for the practice.
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Founders often misunderstand or overestimate the tangible impact that awards and PR recognition will have on their businesses.
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But after my first hurricane, my neighborhood was without power for nearly three weeks — it's better to overestimate.
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I suspect we all overestimate the degree to which we have some unique insight on our employer's operations.
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People overestimate the extent to which in-house jobs are safer or more lucrative than working for yourself.
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RE: WELL Gretchen Reynolds wrote about how people often overestimate how long it would take to commute actively.
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Facts First: This is likely an overestimate of the impact trade agreements can have on the country's employment.
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Critics say the company and CEO Elon Musk have, by omission, allowed drivers to overestimate the system's capability.
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A fourth mistake the president made was to overestimate his ability to force agreement through power and threats.
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History shows us that projections often underestimate the costs and overestimate the benefits of government healthcare programs. Sen.
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When journalists overstate one person's role in creating the problem, we also overestimate their ability to fix it.
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The happiness you get from stuff you overestimate, and we underestimate the happiness we'll get from experiences. Right.
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The Lagos state government conducted its own, technically illegal, census and came up with 17.5m (probably a vast overestimate).
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Studies suggest that both patients and doctors tend to overestimate drugs' benefits, but underestimate their risks and side effects.
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"People tend to overestimate their ability to do things without sleep," says Emily Papazoglou, an Atlanta-based clinical neuropsychologist.
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In much of this, Mr Trump seems to overestimate Russia's clout as well as its alignment with his goals.
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Always overestimate how much you'll need to save to maintain the standard of living you want, just in case.
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And in his opinion it's better to overestimate, rather than underestimate, our chances of creating machines cleverer than humans.
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But they underestimate the risk of shale, and overestimate their own ability to manage the market, at their peril.
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Users, in other words, overestimate how much they value the service: a misperception corrected by a month of abstention.
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It found that women have a tendency to underestimate their earnings prospects, while men consistently overestimate theirs in comparison.
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You can't overestimate how important she was for the Reagan revolution and Reagan's eight years in the White House.
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People are predisposed to think that things are worse than they are, and they overestimate the likelihood of calamity.
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Basu's team determined that the 2013 guidelines probably overestimate a person's risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease by about 20%.
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And even these numbers from the NCVS likely overestimate the true rate at which women protect themselves with firearms.
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The models may overestimate the cooling power of clouds, which, if true, would make combating global warming more difficult.
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A number of financial advisors have urged clients not to overestimate their ability to make bets on British politics.
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Adolescence Adults can help by making sure adolescents don't overestimate the dangers or underestimate their ability to protect themselves.
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But if nothing else, this campaign will have taught us not to overestimate the good judgment of the voters.
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Politicians often overestimate their constituents' support for abortion bans, writes Leah Stokes, a political scientist, in The Washington Post.
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If Texas were to become a battleground state in 2020, the national political consequences would be hard to overestimate.
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I do think you can also overestimate how much it matters—whose mind you're changing, why you're doing it.
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Asked if all that gave him an edge, Nadal — never one to overestimate his chances in public — said no.
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The great value and importance of freedom of expression, for higher education and for democracy, is hard to overestimate.
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It's also easy to overestimate your performance: trivia always feels easy because when you know an answer, you know.
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"We aren't turning a blind eye to something, but we don't feel inclined to overestimate anything," Mr. Peskov said.
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For example, he said many soon-to-be retirees overestimate for how long they will be able to work.
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Yet forces, perhaps competitive pressures, may have caused some to underestimate risk and overestimate the robustness of internal controls.
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Phil Murphy, VP of insurance at Ethos, said that many people, especially millennials, overestimate the costs of life insurance.
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We have this horrible tendency to overestimate the extent to which we're the moral standouts, we're the brave ones.
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Gilovich calls this discrepancy "the spotlight effect," or our tendency to overestimate how closely other people notice what we do.
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"It's hard to overestimate the importance and power of this gift," BAMPFA director Lawrence Rinder told the New York Times.
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Psychologists have long known that when they first meet, men tend to overestimate how sexually interested a woman may be.
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And as research has made clear, the closer we feel to the patient, the more wildly we overestimate their prognosis.
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This overestimate could lead a doctor to target a black patient's blood sugar levels aggressively, causing dangerously low blood sugar.
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" Psychologists call the general human tendency to overestimate how much other people are paying attention to you the " spotlight effect.
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He said analysts also tend to overestimate long-range profit growth, so investors should not be surprised by reduced forecasts.
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Researchers say that trackers can overestimate the amount of sleep that you get, particularly if they focus on tracking movement.
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I'll just note that I think people overestimate how beloved Apple is and underestimate how beloved Amazon and Google are.
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I'll just note that I think people overestimate how beloved Apple is and underestimate how beloved Amazon and Google are.
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It also might overestimate the effect of paid media and undervalue the impact of earned media from early-state victories.
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We have data to show that you—I mean self-professed poor sleepers—often overestimate the extent of nighttime wakefulness.
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As Fisher knows better than anybody, people generally massively overestimate the impact of short-term news on long-term performance.
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I think Elon Musk is peculiar and he may overestimate himself, but he may not be wrong all the time.
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While self-confidence makes you feel better about your abilities, it can also lead you to vastly overestimate those abilities.
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This is better known as the Dunning-Kruger effect: a cognitive bias in which you overestimate your ability in something.
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A study conducted by the Foundation last summer found that parents overestimate their children's willingness to tell them when something's wrong.
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That's where people of low ability — let's say, those who fail to understand logic puzzles — tend to unduly overestimate their abilities.
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An Ipsos Mori Poll in 2016, found that Europeans tend to massively overestimate the number of Muslims living in their country.
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The DOH quoted a fee of $152,000 to have its own scanner do the work, which Ganz called a gross overestimate.
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International data privacy laws require firms to quickly report breaches, well before investigations are complete — potentially forcing firms to overestimate damage.
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Fatigued drivers are less alert and tend to overestimate the distance between themselves and other objects, like signs, stoplights, and cars.
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Instead, he argues that political analysts tend to overestimate the importance of policy in politics, and underestimate the importance of tribalism.
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It's easy to pick on Samsung here, but they're not the only company to overestimate the power of a distribution platform.
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I have a tendency to overestimate my workload — thus needlessly stressing myself out — and this helps bring me back to earth.
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Baby is easy to overestimate; several colleagues were astonished by how tiny it was when they first met it in person.
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However, they overestimate work participation among able-bodied food stamp recipients and underestimate the abuse of work requirements waivers by states.
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There are dozens of reality-based experiments in the recent peer-reviewed literature showing that assumption to be a serious overestimate.
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In fact, respondents to the survey tended to overestimate the distance between their own opinions and those of the general public.
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They understand that most people overestimate what they accomplish in one year, but underestimate what they can accomplish in 10 years.
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They also overestimate how insincere the note may appear and how uncomfortable it will make the recipient feel, their study found.
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It is hard to overestimate the impact of that elite name on the undergraduate degree I earned there in mechanical engineering.
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People who are not financially literate have been shown to overestimate inflation and are less likely to plan adequately for retirement.
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Previous domestic and international outlooks have been plagued by poor assumptions that cause them to severely underestimate renewables and overestimate coal.
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It's hard to overestimate the damage President Trump has done to our political climate when comments like this go virtually unnoticed.
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Voters are prone to overestimate their likelihood of voting, and there are even people who say they won't vote but ultimately do.
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He cites polls showing that voters worry about the number of immigrants, but not those showing that people vastly overestimate those numbers.
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Citizens consistently overestimate the proportion of non-nationals living in their country and underestimate their contribution to workforces, communities and overall demographics.
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We can't overestimate the importance of a team mentality, group cohesiveness and a positive cooperative attitude at reducing trauma and speeding recovery.
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Takeaway: People often overestimate what they can do in the near-term and underestimate what they can accomplish in the long term.
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It is hard to overestimate the influence of Birkenhead on Olmsted, who was captivated by the loftiest principles and most technical details.
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We tend to underestimate threats that haven't happened -- we discount them as "theoretical" -- and overestimate threats that have happened at least once.
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Although men are doing more child care than their fathers did, our survey suggests that they may overestimate how much (see article).
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We tend to underestimate threats that haven't happened—we discount them as "theoretical"—and overestimate threats that have happened at least once.
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We overestimate our ability to explain how things work, whether artifacts like greenhouses and bicycles, or natural phenomena like tides and rainbows.
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Most studies of moderate drinking overestimate its benefits, in part because of selection bias in choosing the people the studies look at.
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"I think the big issue is that people underestimate the risk of not getting vaccinated, and they overestimate the risk of vaccination."
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The only type of violence that is growing more common is terrorism, and people wildly overestimate how much of it there is.
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Hard-easy bias occurs when individuals underestimate their ability to perform easy tasks, yet overestimate their ability to perform more difficult ones.
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Research shows that ellipticals can overestimate the number of calories burned in a 30-minute workout session by more than 100 calories.
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Democrats would do well not to overestimate the appetite of the vast majority of Americans for extra innings for the Mueller inquiry.
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They also tend to overestimate the difficulty in switching home loans and underestimating the benefits of doing so, the FCA's research said.
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"We tend to overestimate the likelihood of something happening, and we tend to underestimate our capacity to deal with it," Bufka says.
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Frankly it's actually so strong you are likely to underestimate how popular it is, not overestimate it or even value it appropriately.
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People tended to overestimate how they compared with others in their ability to dodge a fraud, win a trivia contest or cuddle.
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It's hard to overestimate the couple's stranglehold on the party — its think tanks, its operatives, its donors — for the last two decades.
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As shown in new research from Yuval Salant and a colleague, we tend to wildly overestimate how often new electronics actually fail.
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They also argue that the database comparisons he wants to make will, like the Crosscheck program, vastly overestimate the potential for fraud.
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That's where people of low ability — let's say, those who fail to answer logic puzzles correctly — tend to unduly overestimate their abilities.
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Research shows that people in many western countries greatly overestimate the number of immigrants — in this case, Muslim immigrants — coming into their country.
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CNN has previously reported that critics of the current cholesterol guidelines say they grossly overestimate the risk of people recommended to take statins.
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Availability bias is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of an event where there is greater "availability," or greater "detail," in our memory.
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The study indicates that drivers overestimate the capabilities of features such as blind-spot monitoring systems, automatic emergency braking and adaptive cruise control.
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Sports-science studies confirm the obvious implication: men tend to overestimate their speediness but women do the opposite and underestimate their own abilities.
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It's hard to overestimate the significance of this image of a black man and a woman together at the pinnacle of American politics.
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"You cannot overestimate the outrage that has been felt at 30 Rock over comments she made on live television," the second source explains.
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It is difficult to overestimate how disruptive shutting down even a section of I-85 will be to the city's daily traffic flow.
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Spectacles were greeted with near fervour when they were first introduced, leading Snap to overestimate demand, ordering "hundreds of thousands" of additional units.
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What's at stake There is no way to overestimate the significance of the one square kilometer that delimits the Old City of Jerusalem.
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Anxiety causes us to overestimate the likelihood of bad things happening and how severe these things would be if they were to occur.
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" Her survey found that "heavy viewers of the [reality TV] subgenre… overestimate problems in romantic relationships compared with lighter viewers of the subgenre.
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Just as people systematically overestimate levels of immigration, what if they report corruption according to what they feel, rather than what they know?
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And Mr. Biden has said little about the new contestants, as his advisers have quietly urged political donors not to overestimate their impact.
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It's difficult to overestimate the economic impacts of this new technology as well as the costs if we fail to make such investments.
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The bias on soybeans is to still overestimate the planted area in June, but the split is less harsh at 13 to seven.
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If the BEA uses an overestimate of the growth in prices, then they'll get an underestimate in the growth rate of real GDP.
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Importantly, research on what is termed "enacted extraversion" indicates that introverts tend to overestimate the negative emotions they will experience when acting extraverted.
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There's another Quora thread dedicated to learning how to say "no," where Eva Glasrud writes, "we routinely overestimate the cost of saying 'no.'"
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Is it arguable that all of us overestimate the power of clubs and clubbing when it comes to fostering a sense of inclusiveness?
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It is hard to overestimate the confidence of this United States team, the self-belief it has nurtured, its utter, all-conquering conviction.
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News analysis BRUSSELS — It is hard to overestimate the level of exasperation in Brussels with Britain and its wounded prime minister, Theresa May.
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If something at random does turn up and achieve statistical significance, it is likely to be a massive overestimate of any true effect.
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We sometimes underestimate what we each can do to make things happen and overestimate what others need to do to move us forward.
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"It's hard to overestimate the importance and power of this gift," Lawrence Rinder, the museum's director and chief curator, said in an interview.
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Mr. Lynn cautioned that it was also "easy to overestimate people's awareness and knowledge of the social norm" when it came to tipping.
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"It's really important not to overestimate what campaigns contribute to the race," said Dick Guttman, who at 83 is a veteran press agent.
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USDA has had a remarkable tendency to overestimate soybean carryout in February, as this was true in 13 of the last 18 years.
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We sometimes underestimate what we each can do to make things happen and overestimate what others need to do to move us forward.
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But they overestimate their ability to shape the president's thinking and underappreciate the impact that taking a stand against his comments would have.
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Unfortunately, even if most of gun control proposals currently discussed are implemented — and most should — it's a mistake to overestimate their likely effect.
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This crisp, thoughtful Science of Us article lays out several reasons people, when asked, wildly overestimate — and points to the consequences that result.
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Yet enthusiasm for cancer screenings runs high among patients and doctors, both of whom tend to overestimate the benefits but underappreciate the risks.
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It's hard to overestimate just how big of a deal it would be if the company were to nail this personalization at scale.
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Seattle Seahawks fans (myself included) appeared to overestimate their chances after back-to-back Super Bowl appearances, and came in fifth in search volume.
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Relying on projections of the films over a grid to estimate blast sizes, only about 6% overestimate in their typical estimates of blast sizes.
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But Asher's not wrong that Michaela has some less-than-pure tendencies — nor does Asher overestimate what Michaela will ultimately do for self-preservation.
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This could mean calculations of Afghanistan's dramatic improvement, hailed as one of the gains of foreign aid there, may be an overestimate, said Campbell.
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But all of them share one big issue: They dramatically overestimate how much the actual issue positioning of candidates matters for how people vote.
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According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, 271-year-olds underestimate how long they are going to live and 278-year-olds overestimate it.
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Machine: Ma said there are a lot of people with worries, but most overestimate what this new technological revolution will bring to the world.
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Wax says these observational studies that find a benefit from water births probably overestimate the benefits and underestimate the risks because of confounding factors.
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Meanwhile, studies show that college students vastly overestimate the amount of alcohol their classmates drink, and the amount of sex their classmates are having.
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What might be even more shocking, though, is that compared to their less experienced counterparts, experienced leaders are more likely to overestimate their abilities.
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So there is a natural tendency for them to be inflated by ambitious bureaucrats who want to overestimate the real impact of major busts.
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"I don't ever want to mess with the legacy of our public-access days, and I also don't want to overestimate either," says Gethard.
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Interestingly, the trade deficit metrics cited overestimate the size of the trade deficit, by about half, and as a result are a bit misleading.
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Initial hype and lines for its roving, limited time only Snapbot vending machines led Snap to overestimate demand but underdeliver on quality and content.
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And another study out this week suggests that people overestimate how much sunscreen protection they're getting because they don't put on the recommended amount.
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Unfortunately for the left, politicians tend to overestimate how conservative their voters are, and the Democratic Party leadership is biased in favor of moderates.
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And the nonbarbecue dishes, like the "mac and crack," overestimate themselves, as well as the addictive properties of a few pieces of candied bacon.
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"People often overestimate what they can do in the short term and underestimate what they can do in the long run," Ms. Vanderkam explained.
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One of the pieces of research I cite is about mothers of infants, they routinely overestimate the crawling ability of their baby sons ... Yeah.
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I have some sympathy for the utopians who dedicate their lives to building the better system, even if they overestimate their chances of success.
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There is a saying in Silicon Valley: We overestimate what can be done in three years and underestimate what can be done in 10.
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Surveys have shown that consumers overestimate the capabilities of semi-automated systems, as automakers race to deliver on the promise of truly driverless cars.
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"People overestimate the risk and damages from a nuclear accident," says Akshaya Jha, an economist at Carnegie Mellon and an author of the study.
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It's always easy to overestimate the strategic brilliance of campaigns during their best moments, but it looks like Sanders's choices have been broadly correct.
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That "700 bikers" thing seemed to be a serious overestimate, because only about 100 Hells Angels (or Hells Hangers-on) took part in the ride.
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Women tend to underestimate their own abilities while men overestimate theirs, and women are less likely to be encouraged by others to run for office.
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Overstating the graduate premium is not the only reason policymakers overestimate the wider benefits of increasing the share of young people who go to university.
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"It is difficult to overestimate the contribution of Islam Karimov to the establishment of relations of strategic partnership between our countries," the Russian President said.
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Many seek to discover a reason why they developed cancer, and that can push some patients to overestimate how much baby powder they really used.
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The results showed that the program tended to overestimate the risk of criminal activity for black defendants, even though race itself was not an input.
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IVR surveys and surveys using lists of registered voters systematically exclude significant numbers of Democratic voters causing them to, in my opinion, overestimate Republican support.
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Enthusiasm for cancer screenings runs high among patients and doctors, both of whom tend to overestimate the benefits but underappreciate the risks, medical research shows.
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We consistently overestimate anyone's chance of moving into a higher economic stratum and we fervently believe our own hard work will make us rich someday.
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"You can't overestimate the significance and the profound challenges of shutting down a nation of more than a billion people," the Wilson Center's Kugelman said.
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"The research on that says, pretty consistently, that people overestimate how bad they are going to feel about something in the future," Dr. Summerville explains.
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But it's quite possible that lotteries are taking advantage of psychological biases like a common tendency to overestimate the slim odds of hitting the jackpot.
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People overestimate how they compare with others in chopping vegetables (easy) but underestimate where they rank in their ability to recite the alphabet backward (hard).
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Amara's Law seems applicable here: We're likely to overestimate the changes wrought by WPT in the short term and underestimate them in the long term.
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"You can't overestimate the extent to which having zero control and zero ownership over your own future will affect your psychosocial well being," she said.
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In the new algorithm, a user can limit how much the algorithm may overestimate and underestimate student GPAs for male and female students on average.
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The more content consumed, the more likely you are to overestimate chances of contracting the coronavirus — and the more likely your anxiety levels will skyrocket.
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"People overestimate hard power and underestimate soft power," Aaron Klein, a fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution and former Treasury Department aide, said.
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The similarity between then and now is that many people seem to overestimate how smart and tricky I am, and how much I actually plan.
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It's not that sleep trackers are a bad thing, but you have to be careful not to overestimate what they can tell you about your health.
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Most of the time, it's hard to feel much sympathy for hubristic startups that overestimate their future value but Pebble was one of the good guys.
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"In the Family Research Council's analysis, they made a series of assumptions that, in my opinion, lead to a substantial overestimate of the cost," Herman said.
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For the vast majority of Americans, this is a gross overestimate: According to Quartz, if libraries were abolished, the average American would get back roughly $36.
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A dynamic casually observed in many science classrooms has now been confirmed by research: Men overestimate their intelligence in STEM courses, while women underestimate their abilities.
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Nate Early polls almost always overestimate the share of the vote for minor candidates, even when there aren't two candidates coming out of pretty contentious primaries.
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If you overestimate and tell them your salary expectation is $000,2000, you may set off red flags that cause them to rethink the interview process altogether.
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If they overestimate it — the more common misperception — they may agree to tests and procedures that turn their final weeks and months into a medical treadmill.
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"It's hard to overestimate the importance and significance for all international matters of any contact between the presidents of Russia and the United States," said Peskov.
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It's possible that the polls that name them will overestimate their support; it's possible that the polls that do not name them will underestimate their support.
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It can be particularly dangerous as users may overestimate how much to take, or dealers may pedal the drug under the pretense it is something else.
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However, despite how emboldened someone might imagine they would feel to do so, research finds that we tend to overestimate how comfortable we would actually feel.
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It's the same reason people overestimate the number of murders, while underestimating the instance of petty crimes that are less likely to make the evening news.
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A 2018 study from Stanford University found that consumers often overpay for extended warranties because they overestimate the likelihood that a product will need a repair.
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If there's a common thread among the failures, it's that tech companies often overestimate consumers' trust in them and underestimate the influence of traditional health players.
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The Outlook appears to overestimate electric car costs near-term, and then expects them to fall less than 2202 percent per year for decades to come.
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New Orleans can be counted on to win at home, but an assumption that it will outscore Carolina by 10 seems to overestimate the Saints' defense.
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This is what psychologists call the availability heuristic, and it is the referee's worst enemy: the tendency to overestimate how frequently the most memorable events occur.
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Some previous research suggests that parents tend to overestimate how long kids sleep and underestimate how often children awaken during the night, the study authors note.
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The shadow of World War II It is impossible to overestimate the shadow cast by World War II on the politics and culture of the subsequent age.
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"When markets are going up, we tend to overestimate our tolerance for volatility, and when markets are going down, we tend to be overly fearful," Gatien said.
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In a lesson of especial relevance to China, big Western parties have learned that, during economic booms, it is easy to overestimate mass support for elite policies.
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Silicon Valley veterans argue that people routinely overestimate what can be done with new technology in three years, yet underestimate what can be done in 10 years.
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"It's impossible to overestimate the job that Landau does here as this sepulchral Hungarian," Washington Post critic Hal Hinson wrote in his review of the 1994 film.
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Like a child who thinks her thumb is bigger than the moon, we overestimate the value of nearby pleasures and underestimate the severity of their faraway consequences.
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In fact, this is another reason weight loss often fails: we overestimate exercise and then reward ourselves with ice cream that cancels out the entire spin class.
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"You can't overestimate the impact Anthony's illness had on John and their marriage, and his feelings of despair about what was happening to his cousin," says Taraborrelli.
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ONE of the most insightful responses to a Gulliver article was below the line of a post about air turbulence, and how flyers often overestimate its effects.
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They value the familiar; they overestimate the risks of moving; and they do not know anyone or have anywhere to stay in the place they could go.
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I've heard it said that we overestimate how much our lives can change in a day, while underestimating how much our lives can change in a year.
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The gap between expectations and political realities reflects two mistakes: The first is to overestimate the centrality of presidential contests to our system of checks and balances.
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One philosophy student expressed a common sentiment: "we are like the people who win the lottery and really overestimate their wealth and in the end lose everything".
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"Our study shows that when both nutrients are combined, the brain seems to overestimate the energetic value of the food," Dana Small, from Yale University, explained online.
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"Most people underestimate how long packing takes and overestimate how much free time they have," explained Scott Michael, president and CEO of the American Moving & Storage Association.
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"Social science research has shown us that we sort of overestimate our own prediction about our ability to extricate ourselves from a situation like that," she continued.
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"To be frank, you overestimate how genius the Chinese police is," said Dr. Tang, who had recently shut down a business focused on DNA testing and ancestry.
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" "It is not easy to overestimate its evil effects," the report said of the country's native language, adding "there is no Welsh literature worthy of the name.
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I think there's a danger that if we're polite to our machines we'll overestimate their capabilities and start ceding too much power to them in our lives.
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You probably overestimate how much time you have to spend doing those parts of your job you're not super into, productivity expert Laura Vanderkam told Business Insider.
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Trump prevails in his public fights when his adversaries overestimate one or more of the following: his intelligence, his attention span, and/or his power to harm them.
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But climate scientist Wei Liu at Yale University suspects that these models overestimate the AMOC's stability, according to a new study recently published in the journal Science Advances.
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It could be an overestimate, considering Powerball's reported ticket sales of just over 300 million at midpoint Wednesday — in which case it could also present a unique opportunity.
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People are also heavily influenced by anecdotal evidence and by fears for themselves or their families—hence the tendency to overestimate the prevalence of crime or teenage pregnancy.
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Organizations can overestimate the number of contract workers in the U.S. because they count anyone who does anything on the side, even if they have a W-4013.
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"Drivers tend to overestimate the performance of automation and will naturally turn their focus away from the road when they turn on their auto-pilot," the notes read.
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Then he found out that planning tours is a risky venture even for popular artists and organizers risk losing a lot of money if they overestimate ticket sales.
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Researchers showed in the journal Psychological Science in 2012 that we overestimate how offended people will be to learn that their gift was passed on to someone else.
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But research shows that people tend to overestimate how badly they'll be affected by negative events and underestimate how well they'll cope with and adjust to difficult situations.
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So while it may be a mistake to overestimate the acuity of Trump appointees, it's probably safe to say that Sondland knew exactly what he was involved with.
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Western economists have suggested that Chinese government statisticians underestimate growth in boom years and overestimate growth during busts to present a smoother overall picture of the Chinese economy.
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Those with parking permits, a fiercely sought-after campus amenity, tended to overestimate active-commuting times significantly; the closer someone lived to the workplace, the better the guesses.
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" Such arguments, she said, conflate research and care, and clinicians and patients are prone to overestimate the efficacy of prospective treatments, a phenomenon known as "the therapeutic illusion.
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Art historian Bendor Grosvenor speculated that this hypothetical forger may be "the best ever," and that the effect on the Old Masters art market is hard to overestimate.
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Gone are the days where a company can do a full investigation before announcing a breach, and that means most are likely to overestimate until better facts come in.
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Still, I think that because of the vividness of unicorns and exits like that of WhatsApp, a lot of founders and investors overestimate the likelihood of a big exit.
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He's obviously not big enough to get what he wants, but that sure doesn't stop him from annoyingly trying, like how many men with cowboy complexes overestimate their abilities.
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"Most people overestimate what they're going to do in a year, and they underestimate what they can do in a decade, or two or three or four," Robbins says.
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Peter Finn, psychology professor at Indiana University in Bloomington, said people overestimate their chances of winning, and are driven by emotion instead of logic, which helps explain the frenzy.
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All six banks have adequate capital ratios although, in some cases, risk-weighted assets (RWAs) are low due to significant zero-weighted government exposures, which may overestimate capital ratios.
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Some virologists assert this is an overestimate, because milder cases might be getting overlooked; others counter that, given lack of access to diagnostic testing, many deaths may be uncounted.
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Yet others are more sceptical, arguing that many overestimate the sums that China is investing in or lending to Africa, because they add up pledges rather than actual flows.
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Readers, and journalists too, have a tendency to overestimate how important leaked files are — there's an incorrect belief that files don't get leaked unless they are important (see: risotto).
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Perhaps investors may overweight the validity of their feelings and beliefs about Trump and overestimate his impact, just as Republicans seem to have in 2008 and 2009 about Obama.
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Another reason people do not engage in this prudent behaviour could be optimism bias, where people overestimate the chances of things happening that they really, really want to happen.
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It would be heard to overestimate the influence he had as a rock star, but Bowie, who died early on Monday, also brought his magic to movies as well.
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This number is most likely an overestimate, because some of the lost revenue may be recouped with the somewhat faster economic growth that tax cuts can actually help promote.
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Analysts at Liberum said the market continued to overestimate the payout that Bayer will eventually settle for to buy itself out of the litigation wave, as is widely expected.
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Kudlow disputed the report during an appearance on ABC's "This Week," saying that he believes "they overestimate" and questioning the degree to which humans have contributed to climate change.
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Pollster Gezici, whose research has tended to overestimate opposition support, put the "yes" vote ahead for the first time on 53.3 percent in a survey conducted in early April.
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I wanted to take on (at least from my perspective, but studies show men overestimate these things) the "second shift" of household management that usually falls on working women.
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The consequences for climate predictions are serious: We underestimate the durability of extreme weather situations and, at the same time, overestimate how likely our predictions are to be correct.
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But a growing body of research suggests that, like the corner pizza place saying your pie will take an hour, this deadline may overestimate the time required for delivery.
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Again, this is another wild overestimate, because fewer than 4 percent of Americans identify as gay, lesbian, or transgender, and only about 20 percent of Democrats are African-American.
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"I think one of the risks of the 2016 operation is that we all overestimate how much you can achieve from it and how easy it is," he said.
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"Looking at the longer term ... there's no need to overestimate the impact of black swan events — such as a sudden public health threat — on the financial markets," it said.
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Its current lethality of 2 percent is likely an overestimate, and it's certainly much less deadly than the emergent viruses it has been much compared to, SARS and MERS.
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According to the Kaiser Family Foundation poll, most Americans grossly overestimate the percentage of the federal budget spent on foreign aid — with an average estimated contribution of 26 percent.
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People living in cities where there is rapid home price growth often overestimate the appreciation of homes in more rural areas, even if they are vacation areas, he said.
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Analysts at Rosbank said they don't overestimate the positive contribution of these factors for the rouble and don't expect the Russian currency to fully recover in the coming weeks.
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The belief that he will "alienate his base" is a common misconception among those who overestimate the power of the NRA and underestimate the decency of American gun owners.
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Douglas Boneparth, president and founder of Bone Fide Wealth, said he worries the talk about bitcoin IRAs will make people overestimate how "normal" it is to invest in cryptocurrencies.
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I think we all overestimate VC funding and how much money actually went into media, if you look, compared to what they spend on stuff they really care about.
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We know that this is an issue in other contexts: Similar analysis would overestimate the Democratic share of the vote among Hispanic voters, or the Republican vote among white voters.
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Stoiber said she and her colleagues acknowledged limitations in their work, noting that interactions between chemical contaminants aren't well known and that their assessment could overestimate or underestimate overall risk.
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Like all methods of trying to peer into the future, the text score is not 100 percent reliable it appeared to overestimate the risks of a British recession in 2001.
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And it's a major reason why qualified women aren't promoted to positions of power as often as they should be: We're not over-confident, and we don't overestimate our performance.
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Like all methods of trying to peer into the future, the text score is not 100 percent reliable – it appeared to overestimate the risks of a British recession in 2001.
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If the trunks weren't moving for five minutes, the researchers took this as a sign that the elephants were asleep—the study points out that this could overestimate sleep times.
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Like the Internet itself, in its early years, don't overestimate deep learning's impact in the short term — but, like the Internet itself, don't underestimate its impact in the long run.
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The study, published in the journal Annals of Internal Medicine on Monday, suggests that hemoglobin A1c levels can overestimate the average glucose concentration in black patients, compared with white patients.
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Most people face trouble because their emotions take control and cause them to overestimate the upside, underestimate the downside, and never even consider if they can live with the downside.
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Even that could be an overestimate: the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model, which tracks American growth, points to an annualised increase in output in the first quarter of just 0.6%.
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"Triggered by intense rainfall, changes in water level and anthropogenic activities, it is very difficult ... to overestimate their threat to public safety and the environment," Igwe said in a report.
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The CBO has consistently overestimated ObamaCare's impact on coverage while low-balling its cost, so the agency's projection that 23 million people would lose coverage is almost certainly an overestimate.
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The second is that polls taken from January of the election year to mid-summer have tended to overestimate how well the party that controls the White House eventually does.
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Almost 90 percent of patients have fundamentally mistaken beliefs about how cardiac stents might help them; nearly the same proportion overestimate the benefits of breast cancer and colon cancer screening.
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Typically, laptops makers tend to overestimate a bit on battery compared to what you get in real life, which mean mobile endurance might not be one of its strong points.
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But a close look at Bier's methodology suggests that it's solid; in fact, it's actually likely to produce an overestimate of the US immigration system's terrorism problem than an underestimate.
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While Nissan declined to comment directly on that incident, Executive Vice President Hideyuki Sakamoto said it was important drivers did not overestimate the purpose and capabilities of automated driving functions.
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Investment banks had reportedly courted WeWork's business by discussing a variety of figures that led co-founder Adam Neumann to overestimate how it might be received by public market shareholders.
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"Sometimes you overestimate what the price will cost and you get an asset, and sometimes you underestimate and you get a deficit," Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work told the Post.
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Job two is to make absolutely sure that you don't overestimate how well you'll respond to a real market decline, particularly after a several-year period of high stock returns.
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Source: Refinitiv Of course, it is typical for analysts to overestimate earnings gains and see them come in lower as we get closer to the quarter that is being examined.
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Voters also overestimate how much Britain pays in to the EU budget compared to other members and underestimate how much investment into Britain comes from EU countries, Ipsos MORI said.
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And doctors commonly overestimate how long the terminally ill will live, making it more likely that they will duck frank conversations, or recommend drastic treatments that have little chance of success.
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She also noted the data are based on actual measurements taken by health professionals, not self-reports, which is useful because people tend to underestimate their weight and overestimate their height.
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Although there are arguments to be made now that Steam is stuck in the past in many ways, it's hard to overestimate its effect on the gaming industry over the years.
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"It is difficult to overestimate the contribution of Islam Karimov to the establishment of relations of strategic partnership between our countries," Putin said via a statement published on the Kremlin's website.
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In an analysis of systematic reviews of animal stroke studies, the CAMARADES team estimated 20 percent of animal studies were unpublished, which leads to an overestimate of the effects of treatments.
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European publics wildly overestimate the proportion of their populations that is Muslim: an Ipsos-Mori poll in 2014 found that on average Belgian respondents thought 29% of their compatriots were Muslim.
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Psychologists discovered the Dunning-Kruger effect, which says that people who are less competent or bright consistently overestimate their mental abilities while intelligent people are far more aware of their limitations.
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Illusion of control is the tendency for people to overestimate their ability to control events, like when a sports fan thinks his thoughts or actions had an effect on the game.
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But his dissections of the most incendiary studies are careful, and his conclusions — that they overestimate placebo effects and underestimate the potency of antidepressants — will invite a reckoning of some kind.
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In fact, when we ask teenagers to predict the likelihood that they will be jailed or dead before the age of 20, they grossly overestimate the actual probability of such events.
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While Xi is incredibly powerful, some of the veneration and instant analysis of his position may overestimate his strength, since politics, even in authoritarian China is more complex than it looks.
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"This is really important, because it is possible that certain melt fingerprints or the influence of wind on ocean circulation might cause us to overestimate past sea level rise," said Thompson.
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That might seem like good news, but it can cause researchers to vastly overestimate the impacts of their program and to incorrectly expect skills-training elsewhere to have the same effects.
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As business leaders, we tend to overestimate their importance or impact and escalate these decisions up the corporate ladder, or delay or pass the buck on decision-making as a result.
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Yes, geography alone means that Canada will always disproportionately rely on the U.S. as a trading partner, but we'd do well not to overestimate the concessions Ottawa is willing to make.
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However, in the short-term, financial markets may overestimate inflation risks, in large part because the Fed has conditioned investors that the Phillips curve will re-establish itself at some point.
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A fragility here is when you begin to mistake your stories for reality, and you overestimate both their permanence and how difficult it would be for them to be changed or moved.
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BS: If you look at our biases as humans, we do overestimate how much people care about us or how important we are to others, so I think that is an issue.
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Research has shown that we humans are generally pretty awful at assessing our own competence and abilities, which in turn leads us to overestimate them — a phenomenon called the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
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"I believe that, in the European Union and in the USA, they overestimate the barriers and the troubles small businesses and middle-sized businesses may have in Belarus," said Ivan Pliuhachou, 230vek.
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"That strike, I don't think you can overestimate the importance of that," says Jon Shelton, a University of Wisconsin professor who recently wrote a book on the history of US teachers strikes.
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Wolfgang Maennig, an economist at Hamburg University (and rowing gold medallist in the Seoul games of 1988), notes that such official forecasts have a tendency drastically to overestimate the benefits of hosting.
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Professor Bruce Brown at Brighton University said that the impact of this work is hard to overestimate; "this was somebody who was having a tremendous influence on British popular culture, visual culture".
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When I had him on my podcast, Yuval Harari, the author of Sapiens and Homo Deus, offered a particularly grim vision of this future: [M]ost people tend to overestimate human beings.
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Given how race raters tend to overestimate the chance the party in the White House has of winning a seat, this rating has normally meant an easy Democratic victory in the fall.
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The campaign also appeared to overestimate how offended Mr. Trump's female supporters would be by an "Access Hollywood" recording in which Mr. Trump is heard bragging about grabbing women by the genitals.
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So it's better not to demonize people for the natural tendency they have to overestimate their own agency and instead look for ways to help them recognize the point in other ways.
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We can help adolescents keep their worries about the coronavirus at an appropriate level by making sure they don't overestimate the dangers or underestimate their ability to protect themselves from those dangers.
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The exit polls' overestimate of Mr. Trump's support among well-educated white voters is symptomatic of the survey's deeper problem: a tendency to severely underrepresent older, white voters without a college degree.
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The exit poll tendency to overestimate Republican vote share will also tend to obscure Republican strength in pre-election polls, like Mr. Trump's big gains among white voters without a college degree.
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The public and the police vastly overestimate the incidence of false reports: The most solid, case-by-case examinations say that only 5 to 7 percent of sexual assault reports are false.
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"It is impossible to overestimate the importance of Mary's contribution to our success, and her role in the modern history of Simon & Schuster," Reidy wrote in a message on Higgins Clark's website.
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As for Europe, it's hard to overestimate the importance of the union in maintaining peace on the Continent, creating a functional single market, and serving as a potent counterweight to authoritarian countries.
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So it was not exactly stunning when he held a Monday-night rally in El Paso and spun a fanciful overestimate of his attendance that the city's fire department later shot down.
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Christy has downplayed the threat of climate change in congressional hearings and media appearances, arguing that scientific models overestimate warming, and that major steps to cut greenhouse gas emissions are not warranted.
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"The device that has been used in the study [did not allow the researchers] to estimate posture (sitting vs standing vs lying), therefore, estimated sedentary time may overestimate sitting time," Zipunnikov told Gizmodo.
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In one approach, they incentivized them to lie by saying that if they got their partners to overestimate the amounts it would entitle the participant to a bigger cut of a financial reward.
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To the extent that citations are a good measure of quality (also disputed), placing such weight on those five journals seems to overestimate the quality of some papers and underestimate that of others.
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He worries that people may overestimate the intelligence of their artefacts and become over-reliant on them, and that the institutions and practices on which human comprehension depends may erode as a result.
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Munger went on to explain that he prefers to hire people who don't often overestimate their own abilities, because overestimation can lead to big results, but it often creates more risk than reward.
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"You have to project into the future to see how these programs turn out," so a board with an overly rosy outlook might overestimate the year's performance when doling out equity-based compensation.
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Johnson and Statham have phenomenal chemistry, and yet Hobbs & Shaw still manages to overestimate how interesting it is to watch the two of them go yet another round of juvenile dick-measuring banter.
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"Our focus right now is Louisiana, never overestimate us to screw it up because we have before," outgoing National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) executive director Ward Baker said at a post-election briefing.
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But many of us tend to overestimate our own emotional intelligence, according to Brackett, a professor in the Child Study Center at Yale and founding director of the Yale Center for Emotional Intelligence.
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Like most people, I would miss the un-manipulated wild if it entirely disappeared, and I like a point that Mr. Hebblewhite makes about technological breakthroughs tempting us to overestimate our own cleverness.
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We distort or create memories that support a particular viewpoint or story line; we overestimate our own strengths; we believe self-reinforcing things despite contradictory evidence; and much more, according to Psychology Today.
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He noted that voters tend to overestimate levels of political corruption in the United States, and that strongmen leaders often cloak their intentions with anti-corruption rhetoric, much as Trump did in 2016.
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The other true believers in the Trump administration are White House officials like Steve Bannon and Stephen Miller, who don't have government experience and appear to overestimate what the president can actually do.
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The data showed that taxpayers tend to underestimate the value of art that was given as gifts or bequeathed and, conversely, tend to overestimate the value of art donated as a charitable contribution.
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My 60% clearance rate is probably an overestimate of how easy it is to solve cases through genetic genealogy, because I knew my suspects came from our limited pool of around 1,200 BuzzFeed employees.
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Traders are waiting for the U.S. Department of Agriculture to release updated acreage estimates for grains next month, after the June acreage report was considered to be an overestimate of how much was planted.
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Specifically, those who watched a lot of violent shows on TV began to see the world as a dangerous place; they were more likely to overestimate the real-world occurrence of crime and violence.
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To be sure, it can be dangerous to overestimate the pace of technological change (where is that jet pack I was promised, anyway?), just as it is usually foolish to bet against human ingenuity.
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"Adolescents may overestimate the effectiveness of tattoo removal when having one placed and should be instructed that tattoo placement is permanent, and it is expensive and sometimes difficult to remove them," the researchers wrote.
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Proponents of them often overestimate how effective they are in raising revenue and talk about them like a Robin Hood tax that takes money from the rich and gives it back to the poor.
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After all, the Teslas involved in the McAfee study still requires a human to be in the car and alert, though as several Autopilot accidents have shown, plenty of Tesla drivers overestimate the technology.
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Carlson thinks that, in general, people get too "spun up," which is one of his favorite terms—a reminder of the tendency to overestimate the goodness or the badness of whoever is in charge.
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Closer to home, the Fed should not overestimate the strength of the key growth drivers in an economy advancing at a lethargic annual rate of 1.5 percent in the first three quarters of this year.
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But, she argues, people tend to overestimate these differences and underestimate the value of environmental factors, such as rearing conditions, ecological resources and social conditions: that is, the nurture side of the nature-nurture debate.
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As my mentor and role model, Marc Benioff often says: People overestimate what you can do in a year and they underestimate what you can do in a decade, unless you're (Apple CEO) Steve Jobs.
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In testing the app, I found the 20-minute reading time to be an overestimate; I consumed all chunks of the books listed above in around 15 minutes, and I'm not a particularly fast reader.
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Existing global narratives about the future tend to be either dystopian visions of collapse and hardship, poorly articulated pathways to utopian fantasies, or stories that overestimate the power of conventional strategies to create real change.
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It's also possible Democrats overestimate the potency of Moore in the run-up to the midterms in November since the election is certain to be predominantly a referendum on Trump and his turbulent, polarizing presidency.
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And then what we found at various points was that, I guess it's the sort of the Bill Gates phrase, you sort of overestimate the change in three years and underestimate the change in 10.
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"People overestimate the extent to which their actions and appearance are noted by others," Thomas D. Gilovich, a professor of psychology at Cornell University, and colleagues wrote in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.
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Subjects who already felt threatened by Mexican migration and read about the weakness of the border were more likely to overestimate how close Mexico City was to the United States, and to overestimate the number of Mexican immigrants currently living in the US. But people who had felt threatened by Mexican immigration and then read about how strong the border was were likely to feel that Mexico City was further away from the US — and that the Mexican immigrant population was smaller — than it actually was.
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Some of them do not earn enough to put money aside, but for many the problem is in the mind: they consistently underestimate how long they will live and overestimate how long their money will last.
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The effect creates a vicious loop that boils down to this: The less skilled you are at something, the less likely you are to recognize how unskilled you truly are, and thus you overestimate your abilities.
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Sometimes, publishers overestimate how a book will sell, or they decide that an author's prestige value is so high that it's worth keeping them around with a super high advance regardless of the potential earnings involved.
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One limitation of the study is that researchers lacked data on whether medications were prescribed as needed for short-term use, which the authors note may have led them to overestimate routine use of drug cocktails.
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Wan and the writers vastly overestimate how interesting it is to watch people deny the evidence of their own eyes, or to act as if nothing is wrong after facing down one snarling apparition after another.
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If Jackson's opponents could not fathom the nature of his appeal, his supporters—an unwashed, uncouth "King Mob"—tended to grossly overestimate just how interested their hero was in their welfare, as opposed to his own.
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Nearly 60 percent of colleges significantly underestimate or overestimate off-campus living costs, according to continuing research by the Wisconsin HOPE Lab (for Harvesting Opportunities for Postsecondary Education), which studies barriers to college access and completion.
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For example, voters overestimate how many people are in prison for nonviolent drug offenses while underestimating — or at least not knowing — that most of the growth in state prisons was driven by sentences for violent crime.
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In this case, it&aposs possible to overestimate how many customers are actually willing to buy your product — and the price they&aposre willing to pay — because of how invested you are in your own idea.
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Banks normally resubmit when they are pushing to return the maximum amount of capital possible to shareholders and overestimate what the Fed will allow them to do in their initial proposal, banking and regulatory sources say.
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If we conservatively take 25 percent of $200 billion to be employees' share, we arrive at a $50 billion figure, but that too is an overestimate of the employees' likely windfall in the wake of the offerings.
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In her sit-down conversations with high school students, Eleni Papadakis, executive director of the Workforce Training and Education Coordinating Board in Washington state, said people tend to overestimate how easy it is to repay student loans.
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"You can't overestimate it, but you shouldn't underestimate it either," said Steve Hilton, the chief executive of Crowdpac, a site that matches politicians and would-be donors by their priorities, and Mr. Cameron's former director of strategy.
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"We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run," said the late American futurist and engineering researcher Roy Amara, a maxim known as Amara's law.
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"We don't want to get over enthusiastic or overestimate a trend, but compared to yesterday there is a slight drop in the figures," said Franco Locatelli, the head of Italy's top Health Council, which advises the government.
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And if the exit polls overestimate Republican vote share among various demographic groups, then pre-election national polls will seem to show Democrats doing well, since they're weighted by education and aren't adjusted to match a result.
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Advertise on Hyperallergic with Nectar Ads Standing at the dawn of the Anthropocene era — which marks the sizable impact humans have had upon the Earth — it's easy to overestimate our role in the history of the universe.
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In addition to still being perceived as somewhat behind the European model more generally, the G.F.S. is quite prone to overestimate the intensity of hurricanes, because it doesn't simulate the interaction between the storm and the ocean.
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Decades of hostility It is impossible to overestimate the suspicion that exists between North Korea and the US, 70 years after the end of the Korean War, which never officially ended with no formal peace agreement reached.
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G.O.P. politicians tend to overestimate support for conservative health care views by about 20 percentage points — meaning Senate Republicans might see their states as just barely supporting the A.H.C.A. Our analysis indicates this view would be mistaken.
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A new study published in a journal called Transportmetrica A: Transport Science shows that people often overestimate the time required to commute actively, a miscalculation especially common when someone has secured a parking permit near the office.
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And NFL players regularly check their in-game player rankings to see that they're adequately represented, though some (especially rookies) tend to overestimate their numbers, as EA tweeted in this video leading up to the game's release.
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The two auto groups said the EPA has agreed to develop a new modeling approach after they said a prior model "caused the agencies to overestimate the role that conventional technologies can play in achieving future" improvements.
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One reason older adults may be overconfident about insurance in particular, Finke said, is that seniors are more likely to have experience with or own life insurance: They are more likely, then, to overestimate their understanding of it.
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"The metropolitan advocates to whom the national media turn to explain the 'newly energised grassroots' at times exaggerate the left-progressive focus of the activists under way and overestimate their own importance in co-ordinating it," they write.
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I think if we look at the history of the Russian nation and of the Russian state it would be very difficult to overestimate the role the Orthodox church played in the fashioning of the Russian national identity.
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In short, recent economic hardship seems to explain only a small portion of the opioid crisis — and Christopher Ruhm, the study's author, argued that even his findings may overestimate the impact of worsening economic conditions on the epidemic.
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The aspect is perfect for dedicated morning rituals and spiritual practices, but double check who the recipient is before you send that message, and be mindful not to overestimate how much time you have to get to work!
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One bias that causes us to underprepare for catastrophic risk is optimism bias -- our tendency to overestimate the likelihood that that we will experience good events while underestimating the likelihood that we will fall victim to bad ones.
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But Peter Schweizer, an author and frequent collaborator with Mr. Bannon on films and books, said Mr. Bannon believes the nation's elites arrogantly underestimate their own role in creating crises and then overestimate their ability to solve them.
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ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkish calls for tough action against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after U.S. missile strikes on one of his airbases may overestimate Washington's appetite for deeper involvement in Syria's war and threaten Ankara's fragile rapprochement with Russia.
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Armstrong: People are going to overestimate the amount of strategy work that's gone in between the two companies so far, and they're going to underestimate the amount of strategy work that's going to happen between now and the close.
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"The managed care stocks have been rocked by all the Democratic presidential candidates pushing for the single-payer thing, and I think people overestimate the likelihood of a Democratic president being able to pass something like 'Medicare for All,'" Cramer said.
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When fitness trackers overestimate exercise, people who need more exercise to maintain or lose weight might get too little activity, increasing their risk for obesity and other chronic health problems, the researchers note in the British Journal of Sports Medicine.
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"Since social activities, like eating or studying with others, tend to happen in cafes and libraries where they are easily seen, students might overestimate how much their peers are socializing because they don't see them eating and studying alone," she said.
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Last month the ONS sharply revised up its estimates of Britain's public borrowing to better account for the likelihood that many graduates will not repay all their student loans, as well as an overestimate of corporation tax received last year.
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"The metropolitan advocates to whom the national media turn to explain the 'newly energised grassroots' at times exaggerate the left-progressive focus of the activists underway and overestimate their own importance in coordinating it," Ms Skocpol and Ms Putnam write.
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If you overestimate demand for a book and print too many copies, you just burden yourself with even more excess inventory that you need to pay to store, on top of the excess inventory already coming in from bookstore returns.
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One shortcoming, however, is that it tends to overestimate a person's body size if they're wearing a lot of clothes — there's no easy way for it to tell whether someone is broad or they are just wearing a chunky sweater.
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"One thing that people tend to do is, they tend to overestimate things in the short run but then underestimate things in the long run, and I think that, like many fields, this suffers from that as well," David said.
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Those of us who are on Twitter, those of us who are engaging in the Facebook wars or writing think pieces and all of that, just because of the world we live in we often seriously overestimate everyone else's engagement.
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" The Florida senator, who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said Khashoggi's disappearance is a "catastrophe" for Saudi Arabia, and a realization of concerns that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman "would overestimate how much room he had to do things.
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Having said that, we should not overestimate that, there is also supply and demand, which is also important, and-, so the reality is that yes, the demand is strong, but the supply is going also very strong, US Shale, etc.
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Dacher Keltner, a psychology professor at UC Berkeley, has found that powerful men tend to overestimate their subordinates' sexual interest in them and "sexualize their work, looking for opportunities for sexual trysts and affairs," he writes in the Harvard Business Review.
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" Typically, Xennials don't have the apathy and cynicism associated with the Gen X generation, but they also lack the dogged optimism of millennials, who are said to overestimate their potential because they were raised to believe that they were "special.
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When it comes to self-promotion, people tend to overestimate the extent to which others will feel happy for them and underestimate the extent to which they'll feel annoyed, according to a 2015 study published in the journal Psychological Science.
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In a chapter titled "We're All a Little Bit Sexist," Lipman walks us through the thicket of research on cultural biases against women, which start almost from birth: Mothers overestimate the crawling ability of sons and underestimate that of daughters.
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There are a few surveys reporting increased anxiety in adolescents, but these are based on self-reported measures — from kids or their parents — which tend to overestimate the rates of disorders because they detect mild symptoms, not clinically significant syndromes.
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Given current U.S. involvement in four wars — to say nothing of numerous other military interventions and a network of about 800 American military bases around the world — it is difficult to overestimate the president's ability to singlehandedly reshape U.S. international relations.
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Since liberals tend to overestimate how much people value health insurance and how much effect it has on health, a better-funded alternative to Obamacare could lead to modest coverage reductions and still be less politically disastrous than some Democrats expect.
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Earlier on Tuesday the Office for National Statistics revised up its estimate of British government borrowing due to a change in how it treats student loans that are unlikely to be repaid, as well as an overestimate of corporation tax revenue.
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That is the opening line of a classic work of self-help, "The Road Less Travelled," and it enables the author, Scott Peck, to explain that many people either underestimate or overestimate the challenges of daily existence according to their own neuroses.
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Americans have an unfortunate tendency to overestimate how many people in the United States are immigrants — possibly because many white Americans assume that most Latinos in the United States are immigrants (and some assume most Latinos in the United States are unauthorized immigrants).
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Between my discussions with Dr. Sullivan Singh and the Joyable program, I came across a finding that will stay with me: We often overestimate the likelihood something bad is going to happen, while also underestimating how well we can cope with it.
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The AI conversation often seems to me to be dominated by very analytical people who overestimate the value of analytical intelligence and underestimate the value of other skills and aptitudes that make people good at their jobs and valuable to each other.
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In 2016, Bloomberg profiled the overworked employees who impersonated AI chatbots and personal assistants, delivering services disguised as AI. Reality check: Some AI experts, like Berkeley's Michael Jordan and Gary Marcus of NYU, argue that many overestimate what AI is currently capable of.
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The social psychologist Dan Gilbert has found that we overestimate the intensity and duration of emotional events, so that when something good or bad happens to us, those feelings of elation or despair don't last as long as we think they will.
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Women underestimate their abilities at the same rate that men overestimate theirs, and a woman's self-esteem is more closely tied to compliments and criticism from her boss, with praise being more meaningful to women than even a raise or a promotion.
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CityLab also notes that the company takes issue with Wachsmuth's methodology — a data-scraping method that can overestimate how many nights per year people stayed in Airbnb listings — and the fact that it was partly funded by the New York Hotel Trades Council.
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"In my own research, most men are bothered by sexism, but they overestimate other men's acceptance of it," says Chris Kilmartin, PhD, a professor emeritus of psychology who consulted with the U.S. Navy on a revision of its sexual assault and harassment prevention curriculum.
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Destiny 2 has become a telling example of how a game maker can overestimate its ability to deliver something millions of people will enjoy without deeply engaging with those players, and without listening to or trusting the community when its members say they're unhappy.
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We overestimate the effects of hardware (given everyone's predictions we should be on the moon, with levitating cars by now) and understate the effects of software, where our Teslas learn to drive, or where we are connected to every form or anything ever made.
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LONDON (Reuters) - While markets are buying the view that the historic defeat suffered by Prime Minister Theresa May in parliament cuts the chances of a chaotic Brexit, some financial advisors are urging clients not to overestimate their ability to make bets on British politics.
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"He was/is an important figure for sure, but it's important not to overestimate the impact of taking out guys like him," said Thomas Joscleyn, a terrorism expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who noted that others were waiting to replace him.
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Any conclusions made would be based on an assumption of risk that would surely overestimate any negative outcomes (job losses) relative to the positive gains (job gains), assuming all factors of analysis can be accounted for such as the effect on local suppliers and competitors.
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It is difficult to overestimate the importance of Allen Weisselberg, the Trump Organization's chief financial officer, being subpoenaed to testify before the grand jury empaneled in the Michael Cohen investigation in the Southern District of New York, as first reported by the Wall Street Journal.
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Adolescent drinking is also related to what kids believe about how much their peers are drinking (studies show they tend to overestimate it, and that interventions to correct those assumptions can help moderate college student drinking) and what they believe about alcohol and its effects.
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"We are happy with the Phase 1 trade deal, but we think there is a fundamental problem that won't go away, so we are more careful not to overestimate the positive news," said Wouter Sturkenboom, chief investment strategist for EMEA at Northern Trust Asset Management.
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Those who worry about a strategic vacuum being created by an American redeployment not only overestimate what a few thousand U.S. troops could realistically accomplish in a multifaceted, burning ember of a civil war, but also expose their strategic blind spot of the bigger picture.
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People who already have health anxiety or generalized anxiety disorder are more likely to worry about potential threats like the coronavirus "because such people frequently overestimate threats and underestimate coping abilities," Julie Pike, a clinical psychologist who specializes in anxiety disorders, previously told Insider.
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In other words, if you follow the news regularly — even if the stories you see are factual — you're likely to overestimate the amount of violence in the world, underrate the performance of the government, and develop an unduly low opinion of the average American.
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In 2014, researcher Phillip Goff found that by the age of 10, black boys begin to be seen as less innocent than their white peers, with studies showing that observers overestimate a black boy's age by as much as four and a half years.
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And it is important not to overestimate to what extent President Trump would ever have had the power to fundamentally change the nature of the relationship with Russia within a short period, as Timothy Ash, economist at BlueBay Asset Management reminded clients in a note on Thursday.
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This difference between irrational fear and it's just a spider, according to an in-press paper in the journal Biological Psychology, is enough for those in the first camp to dramatically overestimate the size of spiders—in some cases even imagining them to be larger than butterflies.
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I think some people on the left think we underestimate the benefits of regulation and overestimate the costs, so cost-benefit analysis is inadequate or it needs to be accompanied by a discounting of the costs we see or a boosting of the benefits we see.
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Although we don't want to overestimate the power of movies, we do believe that no other medium can offer such deep insight into other people's circumstances and transform feelings of unfamiliarity into curiosity, empathy and compassion – even for those we have been told are our enemies.
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A marketing expert who worked with the Federation, Stephen J. Caspers, also told the Times it might make them "half a billion" in the long run, which is simultaneously an overestimate of the goal's impact and an underestimate of the financial power soccer would eventually have.
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And even that 10 percent figure might be an overestimate, because youth are more inclined to report behavioral problems than abuse as a reason for living on the streets, said Dr. Colette Auerswald, of University of California Berkeley–University of California San Francisco Joint Medical Program.
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To cope, limit your media exposure and wash your handsBecause panic arises when people overestimate a threat and underestimate their coping abilities, "watching coverage that repeatedly emphasizes both the rapid spread of coronavirus and lack of effective treatment" is a fuel for the anxiety fire, Pike said.
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Alan Abramowitz, an American political scientist, expressed his discipline's received wisdom with reference to his country's elections in an article in the Washington Post: When you're in the middle of a campaign there's a tendency for people, especially in the media, to overestimate the importance of certain events.
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Evangelical advisers to the president who have not condemned his remarks on Charlottesville "overestimate their ability to shape the president's thinking and underappreciate the impact that taking a stand against his comments would have," argues Jim Winkler, the president and general secretary of the National Council of Churches.
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He never talked about title contention or walked around with a fake belt—he always made it clear that he was just trying to get better at the sport, to improve his life, and he seemed to be the only one who stayed humble and didn't overestimate who he was.
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What's radical about this study is not the results, but the subjects to whom it gives a voice: "Research has consistently demonstrated that white Americans strongly associate racial minorities with crime and overestimate the proportion of crime committed by people of color," the study's lead researcher, Dr. Jennifer Cobbina, writes.
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The vacuum's LCD screen was more useful than I expectedDyson incorporated the screen into this new vacuum to help reduce "run time anxiety," which is apparently common among its current users who tend to overestimate cleaning time and battery usage, and don't like not knowing how much battery is left.
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It's as easy to overestimate this transformation in the near term as it is to underestimate its impact over 5 to 10 years — just as, 10 years ago, it was hard to believe that the last generations of network-tech upgrades would make streaming anywhere, navigation everywhere, ride sharing, and mobile transactions our new normal.
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The results are troubling because when fitness trackers overestimate exercise, people who need more exercise to maintain or lose weight might get too little activity, increasing their risk for obesity and other chronic health problems, said senior study author Motohiko Miyachi of the National Institute of Health and Nutrition in Tokyo, in an email.
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It is difficult to overestimate the hugeness of hard seltzer to people who study the business of alcohol, but here are some exact figures: Hard seltzer is currently a $550 million business and is projected to keep growing, with one UBS analyst estimating to Business Insider that it could be worth $2.5 billion by 2021.
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"It is impossible to overestimate the significance of the Smolensk crash in the life of Jaroslaw Kaczynski — and in the life of Polish politics in general," said Marek Migalski, who ran for the European Parliament as a Law and Justice candidate in 2010 and is now a lecturer at the University of Silesia in Katowice.
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And in my case, it's trying to act as some sort of intelligent, you know, bridge, where I can, and I don't overestimate the importance of this at all, between, I won't say east and west, But maybe China and the United States, uh, where we're being ripped apart rather than being brought closer together.
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"The people in Silicon Valley often really overestimate the effect of this because they are in this bubble where everything they do in their jobs is affected by code," he says, pointing out that many communities in other parts of the country have work forces that are less computer-centric and can't be replaced as easily by automation.
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Not only did people incorrectly overestimate how irritated they would feel about products with high-arousal designs in the future, the study also showed that in situations where people chose devices with bright colors and intense patterns from the start, they also underestimated just how much satisfaction they expected a get from a high-arousal device after repeated use.
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" From what he told me, servers are excellent at identifying the poor wretches who, faced with the menu's seemingly endless options, overestimate their capacity for ingesting rice: "There are the ones who order nigiri, futomaki, uramaki, maki and chirashi as soon as they sit down," Wei told me, "And you already know they won't finish it.
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By Andrew M. Seaman (Reuters Health) - People with cancer may overestimate the possible benefits to them of participating in an early trial of a new medicine, even after talking with a doctor about what to expect, according to a new study from the U.K. So-called phase 22 trials of experimental treatments are intended to test the drug's safety.
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"There haven't been many incidents where they've engaged in this sort of behavior so they don't know how to deal with each other in this situation, they don't know how to read the way that each side is acting, so you can get accidents and the North Koreans, again, they may overestimate their hand," he said.
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The study projects from past trends, extending them to a state-by-state level and adjusting for the fact that people who respond to surveys on the obesity question often underestimate their weight and overestimate their height, according to chief author Zachary Ward, a PhD candidate at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston.
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But to those of us who care about wins and losses—and certainly to the team owners for whom tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars can rest on the outcome—it is hard to overestimate the gravity of a 16-percentage-point swing in the probability of winning a championship, based entirely on the result of a coin flip.
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There's a tendency to overestimate players from the 70s and 80s due to the level of goal scoring back then, though two big reasons those years were high-scoring eras is that goaltenders were not nearly as technically advanced as players at other positions, and the depth of the league in general was worse, allowing great players to stand out more.
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You can't easily get a girl to be less concerned about her looks; or to overestimate how interesting her own life is; or to care more about completing all the missions in Grand Theft Auto than about how many likes she's getting on Instagram (nor is it clear that this last change, even if accomplished, would be a change for the better).
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Northwest Academy, 12th grade To the Editor: Re "You Underestimate Yourself," by Spencer Greenberg and Seth Stephens-Davidowitz (Sunday Review, April 7): In our current predicament as high school students, my friend and I know not only what it's like to underestimate (and sometimes overestimate) our abilities, but also what it's like being surrounded by over a thousand people doing the same.
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They are overly optimistic about the progress of other groups; a 2017 Yale study, for example, found that white Americans dramatically overestimate the level of economic equality between black and white people, and other forms of racial equality in the US. Polling also shows that whites believe they face as much, or even more discrimination than black Americans and other racial groups.
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Instead, the Right's media monoculture has created negative feedback loops whereby people with little political acumen like Mark Levin, Michael Savage, and Glenn Beck are able to fill Republican voters' heads with nonsensical ideas like planning to shut down the government with no backup plan or electing fewer GOP officeholders in pursuit of more "pure" ones, primarily because they grossly overestimate the number of conservatives in America.
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"There is this general problem that we tend to overestimate how fast technology goes in the short run, and underestimate in the long run," Sandberg tells CNBC Make It. Citing a phenomenon represented by the Gartner Hype Cycle, he explains that when there is some big breakthrough in a new technology, investments go up, the media latches on and the public speculates excitedly about the possibilities.
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But each assertive act has seemed to build on the one before, starting with a debate-stage clash last month over "Medicare for all" and culminating in recent days with the entry of two new moderate candidates into the primary, Michael R. Bloomberg and Deval Patrick, and a gentle warning from former President Barack Obama that Democrats should not overestimate voters' appetite for drastic change.
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"It is important to remember that early on in an epidemic, there is a 'tip of the iceberg' phenomenon where we overestimate more severe cases and mild or asymptomatic cases go unrecognized, so the mortality seems higher than the reality," Todd Ellerin, director of infectious diseases and vice chairman of the department of medicine at South Shore Hospital, wrote in a post on the Harvard Health Blog.
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