We need to bridge those counter effects by more expansionary fiscal and more expansionary monetary policy.
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"Yes, I have favored more expansionary fiscal policy, and this is more expansionary fiscal policy," Mr. Summers said.
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"Monetary policy is already expansionary and I'm doubtful that an even more expansionary stance would have stimulatory effect at all," Weidmann said.
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It seems as if she's saying that deficits necessarily lead to an increase in the monetary base, that expansionary fiscal policy is automatically expansionary monetary policy.
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The main concern among economists is the government's expansionary budget.
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If the budget is not highly expansionary, this could continue.
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"I could absolutely envisage a less expansionary policy," he said.
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The SNB's monetary policy thus remains as expansionary as before.
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Therefore we clearly need a more expansionary (or contractionary) policy.
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The links help stem China's expansionary policies in the region.
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In other words, it should neither be expansionary nor contractionary.
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"On more expansionary fiscal policy, I think many members of the open market committee and of the Federal Reserve Board have commented it would be useful to have a more expansionary fiscal policy," Fischer said.
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It's still slightly expansionary but manufacturing's been weaker side of it.
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Inflation and earnings quality are all "expansionary" indicators, according to Golub.
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It also enjoyed windfall profits in the expansionary days of 2014.
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Namely, an expansionary fiscal policy would raise the equilibrium interest rate.
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But the expansionary fiscal policy they sought is on the way.
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Mid-morning, he went uptown, to discuss an expansionary media venture.
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Are they claiming that expansionary fiscal policy actually reduces interest rates?
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But the proposed expansionary fiscal policy stance could increase the budget deficit.
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They argued that Italy needed expansionary measures to lift lagging economic growth.
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Added to this, investors see Trump's expansionary fiscal policies as stoking inflation.
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He said the economic slowdown made an expansionary budget even more necessary.
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Trump's proposed expansionary fiscal policy stance could, however, increase the budget deficit.
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Instead, inflation got even worse, as monetary policy was still highly expansionary.
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But it will also cut imports, which other things equal is expansionary.
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ITALY'S NEW ECONOMY MINISTER SAYS EURO ZONE NEEDS MORE EXPANSIONARY FISCAL POLICY
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Incredibly, it seems that they bought into the doctrine of expansionary austerity.
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Now, the Fed's role will limit the expansionary effects of the deficit.
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A weaker RMB would tend to be expansionary for the Chinese economy.
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"Our monetary policy is expansionary and it has to remain expansionary because we still have a very difficult situation: We have negative inflation, we have a negative output gap and the Swiss franc remains significantly overvalued, " he added.
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"We consider that our expansionary monetary policy remains necessary at present," she said.
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They're going to have to become even more expansionary than they have been.
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"Growth in Uganda is also expanding, with more expansionary fiscal policy," Khan said.
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The coalition approved an expansionary budget in December aimed at heading off recession.
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First, it is trying to stimulate the economy with a mildly expansionary budget.
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"The budget this year is expansionary and that boosts the economy," Iradian said.
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However, this objective is in direct conflict with the administration's expansionary budget policy.
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An uncertain and insufficiently expansionary economic environment linked to the chaos in Washington.
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Turkey was entering its expansionary era, and those with the right connections prospered.
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Well, think about why we used to believe that oil price declines were expansionary.
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ITALY'S ECONOMY MINISTER SAYS EUROPE WOULD NEED EXPANSIONARY FISCAL POLICY TO COUNTER ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN
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As expected, the new government has announced a moderately expansionary, pro-cyclical fiscal plan.
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An expansionary policy approach from the Trump administration will only accelerate the inevitable rebound.
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In December, parliament in Rome approved an expansionary budget aimed at speeding the recovery.
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"We are living though extraordinarily expansionary monetary policy coming to an end," she said.
|
|
But total new orders, an indicator of future activity, edged back into expansionary territory.
|
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It was fully offset by expansionary Fed actions and much more aggressive forward guidance.
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"It is a concern and that's why we're keeping monetary policy expansionary," Orr said.
|
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Expansionary fiscal and wage policies have increased the country's budget and current account deficits.
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Expansionary fiscal and wage policies have increased the countrys budget and current account deficits.
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The government says the debt will fall as the expansionary budget spurs economic growth.
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Italy's political masters say they're "extremely happy" with their expansionary budget plans for next year.
|
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Mr Correa's expansionary policies pushed up wages and inflation, making Ecuador's non-oil exporters uncompetitive.
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Increases in factory gate prices slowed significantly in May but were still in expansionary territory.
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In 0003, stronger GDP growth will drive deficit reduction despite a mildly expansionary fiscal stance.
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But it will limit the magnitude of the expansionary effect, not turn it into contraction.
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But the impact of expansionary fiscal policy peaked in the second quarter of this year.
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Golub noted inflation, jobs data and credit performance are all still expansionary for the economy.
|
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ISM also released disappointing services data on Thursday, but the sector remained in expansionary territory.
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ZURICH, March 21.5 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank made the following statement after its policy review on Thursday: Swiss National Bank leaves expansionary monetary policy unchanged The Swiss National Bank is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy, thereby stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity.
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Regarding fiscal policies, the mildly expansionary euro area fiscal stance is providing support to economic activity.
|
|
"To support the upturn in inflation, monetary policy needs to be somewhat more expansionary," it said.
|
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The aim, as with Italy's expansionary 2019 budget, is to stimulate growth by boosting domestic demand.
|
|
"It's an expansionary budget, we are satisfied," Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said after the cabinet meeting.
|
|
Production stayed well within expansionary territory, though growth eased to 6000193 compared to last month's 53.8.
|
|
Monetary policy makers almost certainly need a helping hand in the form of expansionary fiscal policy.
|
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Pursuing expansionary fiscal policy at this juncture risks causing long-term interest rates to rise sharply.
|
|
This was due to Korean authorities' expansionary and borrower-friendly measures, including a policy rate-cut.
|
|
Both measures hit low points in 2010-2011, making a strong case for expansionary monetary policy.
|
|
The new message from the meeting today is that fiscal policy will become incrementally more expansionary.
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Expansionary policies may push up consumer prices, which rose 11% in November from a year earlier.
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|
"On Thursday there was a lot of relief that the ECB would stick to its expansionary stance, but latest comments suggest there is an ongoing discussion and that there are several council members in favour of a less expansionary stance," said DZ Bank strategist Daniel Lenz.
|
|
We're starting to see more and more signs that the economy is looking more recessionary that expansionary.
|
|
The conventional wisdom is that markets are pricing in an expected move toward expansionary policy in America.
|
|
"The new president is going to be far more expansionary when it comes to energy," Gartman said.
|
|
The coalition approved an expansionary budget in December aimed at heading off the growing threat of recession.
|
|
Amid the lower growth prospects and moribund inflation, the ECB announced further expansionary measures in early March.
|
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The coalition approved an expansionary budget in December aimed at heading off the growing threat of recession.
|
|
The SNB's expansionary monetary policy remains necessary against the backdrop of the current price and economic developments.
|
|
In the advanced economies, expansionary monetary policy is lending support, as is fiscal policy in some countries.
|
|
Expansionary fiscal and wage policies have increased Romania's budget and current account deficits, weighing on asset prices.
|
|
European Central Bank member Ignazio Visco said the ECB's monetary policy will remain expansionary to sustain demand.
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|
I am not sure that a 2 percent funds rate is especially expansionary in the current environment.
|
|
The ISM manufacturing index remains in expansionary territory in December, but it declined to two-year lows.
|
|
November's PMI reading marks the third consecutive month of contraction, following expansionary readings in July and August.
|
|
Indeed, it might take another 2009-scale global financial crisis to shock legislators into expansionary fiscal policy.
|
|
Italy says expansionary measures are needed to head off an economic slowdown affecting the whole of Europe.
|
|
We had strong ISM data there, which was showing that the country, the region was in expansionary territory.
|
|
Some hope that the Tories will embrace a more expansionary fiscal policy, which could pep up economic growth.
|
|
There is less room now for expansionary monetary policy although we expect the central bank to remain accommodative.
|
|
Leuchtman said the Japanese central bank's making its monetary policy less expansionary would continue to strengthen the currency.
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|
It said monetary policy needed to proceed cautiously and to be expansionary for a long time to come.
|
|
Beyond expansionary fiscal policy, slowing inflation and the prospect of further interest rate cuts are encouraging investor interest.
|
|
Despite the longest modern expansionary period in history, the recovery has and will likely remain at half-speed.
|
|
The Saudi index added 1.5 percent on Sunday in reaction to Riyadh's modestly expansionary state budget for 2017.
|
|
But EU officials see little prospect of a more expansionary German fiscal policy before next year's general election.
|
|
The disastrous leadership accelerated inflation by excessively expansionary monetary policy and led to his firing after 18 months.
|
|
Remember the long fight against the doctrine of expansionary austerity and the mythical cliff at 90 percent debt?
|
|
China's expansionary steel policies have made it the world's largest producer and exporter, leading to depressed global prices.
|
|
"The available fiscal space provides the opportunity to temporarily adopt a modestly expansionary fiscal stance..." the report said.
|
|
T&R is moderately sensitive to traffic or fuel volume shocks, and does not rely on expansionary capex.
|
|
Some market participants have long thought that the US economy is at the end of its expansionary cycle.
|
|
When the economy is weak and unemployment is high, an expansionary fiscal policy would help support the economy.
|
|
The 2016 budget includes a series of expansionary fiscal measures, overall worth around ISK27bn (around 1.2% of GDP).
|
|
The FY18 budget appears to signal that a cycle of expansionary fiscal policy is coming to an end.
|
|
Di Maio told reporters in parliament "the recipe to lower public debt is by investments and expansionary policies".
|
|
"The recipe for lowering the debt is through investments and expansionary policies," Di Maio told reporters in parliament.
|
|
On the campaign trail, the president-to-be promised expansionary fiscal policies, including tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending.
|
|
The Commission rejected Italy's expansionary draft budget in October, saying it was in clear breach of EU fiscal rules.
|
|
These negative real short-term interest rates are falling in the range that signifies a hugely expansionary monetary policy.
|
|
Japan's economy is on track to mark its longest postwar expansionary period thanks to robust exports and capital expenditure.
|
|
ECB'S VISCO SAYS GOVERNING COUNCIL REMAINS CONVINCED OF NEED TO MAINTAIN FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME CURRENT EXPANSIONARY STANCE
|
|
It also signaled that Labour's expansionary fiscal policy would not automatically result in tighter monetary policy in coming years.
|
|
The Caixin PMI, which focuses on smaller and medium-sized enterprises, was last in expansionary territory in February 2015.
|
|
The German banking association said that what's already "a very expansionary monetary policy" is raising risks and side effects.
|
|
Combine all this with the fact that the U.S. is also in the midst of an expansionary fiscal policy.
|
|
In return, Mongolia agreed to end expansionary monetary policies, introduce austerity measures, raise some taxes and reduce welfare spending.
|
|
Chairman Jordan said last month he still has room to manoeuvre and could introduce even more expansionary monetary policy.
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|
Chairman Jordan said last month he still has room to maneuver and could introduce even more expansionary monetary policy.
|
|
Germany, the main target of the Gallic call for more spending, reckoned its fiscal policy was already pretty expansionary.
|
|
Exports have crept back into expansionary territory but are facing the risk of a rise in U.S. trade protectionism.
|
|
But the ministers fell short of setting a target for an expansionary fiscal stance for the bloc next year.
|
|
EU government representatives are set on Thursday to back European Commision disciplinary proceedings against Italy over its expansionary budget.
|
|
Looking at post-slump recoveries since 220006, the average for a five-year expansionary period is around twice that.
|
|
Over time, the inflation and unemployment data tell us whether previous policy settings were too expansionary or too contractionary.
|
|
The company was able to cut its expansionary capex in 9M16 to conserve cash flows amid weak property sales.
|
|
Inflation has fallen to low levels (0003% in the 12 months through June) and monetary policy has remained expansionary.
|
|
New orders also swung back to expansionary territory at 50.2 but remained much weaker compared with the historical average.
|
|
"Monetary policy needs to remain expansionary until the (central bank's) 2 percent inflation target is achieved," the organization said.
|
|
At a time of heightened economic, market and now public health crisis, "expansionary austerity" is a particularly risky policy.
|
|
Central banks in Norway, Japan, and Australia cut interest rates, bought government bonds, or took other expansionary measures.2.
|
|
And then he offered a new definition of fiscal policy by calling systematic budget surpluses an expansionary fiscal stance.
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|
The expansionary monetary policy continues to be necessary given the latest international developments and the inflation outlook in Switzerland.
|
|
The Italian government has been stepping up anti-Brussels rhetoric after announcing an expansionary 2017 budget plan on Oct.
|
|
That is, the level that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and keeps the economy operating on an even keel.
|
|
However, the government has announced a modestly expansionary budget for 2017, holding off on fresh austerity measures for now.
|
|
" They added that a "likely slowdown in economic activity may lead policymakers to pursue more expansionary monetary and fiscal policies.
|
|
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates last month against the backdrop of a tightening labor market and expansionary fiscal policy.
|
|
Tria is an economist who is seen by investors as a bulwark against Salvini's push for more expansionary fiscal policy.
|
|
They may well be right on condition that the Chinese, the Europeans and the Japanese underwrite our expansionary fiscal policy.
|
|
The so-called neutral rate is the level of interest rates that is neither expansionary nor contractionary for the economy.
|
|
The central banker has previously said that countries should compliment the ECB's expansionary monetary policies with fiscal ones where possible.
|
|
The government says the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall thanks to stronger economic growth spurred by the expansionary budget.
|
|
The economy is also being propped up by record remittances from abroad and the government's expansionary fiscal policies at home.
|
|
But total new orders — an indicator of future activity — edged back into expansionary territory, suggesting some improvement in domestic demand.
|
|
The services index remained in expansionary territory highlighting continuing strength that has helped China weather the sharp slowdown in manufacturing.
|
|
But total new orders -- an indicator of future activity -- edged back into expansionary territory, suggesting some improvement in domestic demand.
|
|
Investors have been shedding Italian debt amid a row between Rome and the Commission over the government's expansionary 2019 budget.
|
|
Output charges edged up into expansionary territory and outpaced growth in input prices, reflecting reduced pressure from raw material costs.
|
|
Investors rushed to U.S. assets as they bet his expansionary fiscal policy will boost U.S. growth, inflation and interest rates.
|
|
As a geopolitical proxy of the United States, Israel and its expansionary settlement policies affect us in far-reaching ways.
|
|
What is needed is "expansionary monetary policy," declares Glix, a green, lizardlike creature who likes to sing and wear capes.
|
|
The bank said it expected its monetary policy to remain "expansionary" in the coming period due to low inflationary pressure.
|
|
If you don't adopt an expansionary economic policy, then the government alone can't create demand by just spending on infrastructure.
|
|
"Tax cuts and infrastructure spending represent a much more expansionary fiscal policy than we've had in some time," he said.
|
|
To help fund its expansionary program, the Treasury sharply hiked the deficit goal from a targeted 1.8 percent this year.
|
|
The combination of rising labour costs, expansionary fiscal policy, and a strong nominal exchange rate support the real exchange rate.
|
|
The Saudi index added 1.5 percent to 7,191 points on Sunday in reaction to Riyadh's modestly expansionary state budget for 2017.
|
|
"If you start to apply expansionary fiscal policy... markets start to penalize Italian government bonds," de Guindos told a news conference.
|
|
Economically, everything seems to be in expansionary mode," Boris Schlossberg, managing director of foreign exchange strategy, said Tuesday on "Trading Nation.
|
|
The cut is the first since January, when policymakers ended an expansionary cycle that shaved 225 basis points off borrowing costs.
|
|
Gains in Italy's bond and stock markets after Italian Economy Minister Giovanni Tria defended the country's expansionary budget helped lift sentiment.
|
|
In previous years, provinces had tended to set goals higher than the national target to showcase grand expansionary plans, economists say.
|
|
Also, taking advantage of the ECB's ultra-expansionary monetary policy, Italian banks have replaced foreign funding with cheap central bank cash.
|
|
Even the calls for euro/dollar parity have dwindled on expectations the European Central Bank will pare back its expansionary policy.
|
|
The talks are aimed at avoiding having the EU open a disciplinary procedure against Rome for its excessively expansionary 2019 budget.
|
|
"As the new president has been emphasizing welfare and job growth, market expected next year's budget to remain expansionary," Moon said.
|
|
At the same time, his appointment suggests that Tehran envisions an increasingly greater Basij role in advancing the regime's expansionary ambitions.
|
|
Export order growth nearly stalled, and was the weakest since December, while imports also slowed, though they remained in expansionary territory.
|
|
The government is looking for ways to finance its expansionary 2019 budget and is targeting the financial sector to raise money.
|
|
In addition, the fiscal stance in the euro area is becoming slightly expansionary, reflecting in particular measures in support of refugees.
|
|
The Federal Reserve raised its interest rates on Wednesday against the backdrop of a tightening labor market and expansionary fiscal policy.
|
|
T&R's management anticipates expansionary investments through to 2025 on existing sites and new off-motorway initiatives to sustain revenue growth.
|
|
"We still have room to maneuver, we can go to an even more expansionary monetary policy," Jordan told a press conference.
|
|
"The question becomes how Japanese growth could impact the very expansionary stance of central banks," said DZ Bank strategist Daniel Lenz.
|
|
In these exceptional circumstances, the SNB's expansionary monetary policy is more necessary than ever for ensuring appropriate monetary conditions in Switzerland.
|
|
Orders for capital goods like business equipment fell 0.9 percent in April, suggesting companies may not be in an expansionary mood.
|
|
Xiao has maintained an expansionary fiscal policy since he took over from Lou, who now heads the nation's social security fund.
|
|
Overall new orders also continued to show modest growth, with new orders edging into expansionary territory after nine months of contraction.
|
|
If the expansionary phase is sustained until January 2019, the economy would mark the longest post-war expansion of 74 months.
|
|
Total new orders bounced back to expansionary territory with the sub-index rising to 21, the highest level seen since April.
|
|
Those surveyed said still-weak economic activity will motivate the policymakers to continue expansionary monetary policy for the remainder of the year.
|
|
Andreas Scheuerle of DekaBank pointed to factors also including the Italian government's row with the European Commission over its expansionary 2019 budget.
|
|
Regarding fiscal policies, the mildly expansionary euro area fiscal stance and the operation of automatic stabilizers are providing support to economic activity.
|
|
The Institute for Supply Management gauge indicated plans that were barely expansionary, while the global Markit Purchase Managers Index pointed to contraction.
|
|
To date, Chinese expansionary tactics have for the most part involved incremental steps: moves not so provocative as to incite a response.
|
|
Overall, however, the deal could be summed up as "expansionary continuity" (Germany's budget surplus is now around €45 billion, or $55 billion).
|
|
The yen immediately began to fall and the stockmarket started to rise in anticipation of the expansionary policies his victory would bring.
|
|
Italy is pressing ahead with an expansionary budget that will boost its deficit and risks further increasing its huge public debt pile.
|
|
With a budget surplus somewhere between 1.23 and 1 percent of GDP, there is plenty of room for an expansionary fiscal policy.
|
|
The Swiss National Bank maintained expansionary monetary policy, with the interest on sight deposits at the bank unchanged at minus-0.75 percent.
|
|
"In light of the still high debt levels in the EU, we see no possibility for an expansionary fiscal policy," he said.
|
|
"They have modest but expansionary growth and I think (President Mario Draghi's) more or less content with where they stand," said Schlossberg.
|
|
Regarding fiscal policies, the mildly expansionary euro area fiscal stance and the operation of automatic stabilisers are providing support to economic activity.
|
|
They cited some reports of movement from the Rome on what were seen as over-optimistic growth projections in its expansionary budget.
|
|
Given the completion of its expansionary capex, we expect Sritex to generate neutral free cash flows in the next 12-18 months.
|
|
First and most importantly, President Trump's objective of reducing the U.S. trade deficit, is at marked odds with his expansionary budget policy.
|
|
Another official survey on Tuesday showed growth in China's services industry also cooled in April, though it remained in solid expansionary territory.
|
|
"Directors encouraged an expansionary policy mix to support domestic demand, and structural reforms to promote inclusive and sustainable growth," the fund said.
|
|
The bloc has currently a "broadly neutral" fiscal stance, despite pressure from some countries for more expansionary plans to counter recession risks.
|
|
The bloc currently has a "broadly neutral" fiscal stance, despite pressure from some countries for more expansionary plans to counter recession risks.
|
|
The nonmanufacturing survey, released Thursday, showed just 0003% planning to hire in the services sector, a level just barely in expansionary territory.
|
|
The European Commission has rejected Rome's expansionary 2019 budget because it reverses a commitment to reduce borrowing made by the previous government.
|
|
"In our view the budget is expansionary - it calls for the right approach," said Santhosh Balakrishnan, assistant vice-president at Riyad Capital.
|
|
He noted that the U.S. Federal Reserve would likely be working to counter any expansionary fiscal stimulus if it causes too much inflation.
|
|
Both parties appear united in fighting the shared enemy that is the European Union which has rejected the coalition's expansionary budget for 2019.
|
|
"The pressure on yuan to fall is short-term ... from the Fed rate rise and Donald Trump's potential expansionary fiscal policy," Liao said.
|
|
It gave them very little room for manoeuvre, so they were unable to use expansionary fiscal and monetary policy to reverse a downturn.
|
|
"This adjustment does not entail any change in our current monetary policy and in particular our expansionary stance," Jordan told the news conference.
|
|
The Commission has rejected Italy's expansionary 2019 fiscal package, saying it will not reduce the country's large public debt as EU rules require.
|
|
And to the degree you can support that by expansionary fiscal policy, if you have latitude for it, that's a better policy mix.
|
|
The bulk of that move came after Wednesday, when the European Commission formally moved towards disciplinary action against Italy over its expansionary budget.
|
|
He noted that central banks can still run "expansionary monetary policies" through bond buying and other measures, even at near-zero interest rates.
|
|
Slowing global growth, the government's loose monetary and expansionary fiscal policies, and a balance of payments challenge have also weighed on the rupee.
|
|
"If the [euro zone] economy cools significantly... the European Central Bank might be forced to stick to an expansionary monetary policy," she said.
|
|
Schuknecht said the IMF in its latest review had rightly pointed to increasing risks to financial stability resulting from over-expansionary monetary policy.
|
|
We also saw Congress take a significant step toward more expansionary fiscal policy in the form of the first cut at tax reform.
|
|
While having had little expansionary will throughout its history, China has viewed the "lesser" states around it as having elements of Chinese culture.
|
|
"The yield curve is telling us that either the tax cut is not happening or it's not going to be expansionary," LaVorgna said.
|
|
The Italian government says its expansionary budget will reduce the debt by increasing growth, but experts agree the expected output is over-optimistic.
|
|
Tria defended the budget strategy, saying expansionary measures were needed to head off an economic slowdown that was affecting the whole of Europe.
|
|
We discounted the contribution to revenues from expansionary investments to 2025 by 30% to 40%, whilst keeping the EUR465 million capex outlay unchanged.
|
|
S. trade war takes its toll on the region's growth, even as some of Asia's central banks adopt more expansionary policies this year.
|
|
During the eurozone crisis, economists at Bocconi University in Milan popularized the idea of "expansionary austerity:" government spending cuts stimulating confidence and growth.
|
|
But the adventure provided an inviting introduction to Fed strategies, like the relatively expansionary monetary policy that the stock market is applauding today.
|
|
Bill Clinton and Barack Obama experienced difficult political problems thanks to expansionary visions of government in arenas like health care and energy policy.
|
|
Germany's only euro area problem at the moment is the expansionary monetary policy run by the governing board of the European Central Bank.
|
|
A robust macroeconomic policy framework and strong buffers afford the authorities considerable room to respond to low oil prices with an expansionary policy stance.
|
|
Improved orders helped nudge activity into expansionary territory, even though firms surveyed noted demand still remained relatively subdued both in domestic and international markets.
|
|
However, Di Maio also told La Repubblica Friday that Italy would not be prepared to amend the main pillars of its expansionary 2019 budget.
|
|
"The boost from an expansionary fiscal policy suggests any downgrade to the BOJ's inflation forecast won't be too big," said one of the sources.
|
|
According to Gartman, it is abundantly clear the Fed is going to "err upon the side of being less expansionary," unlike other central banks.
|
|
Central banks have been criticized for the failure of expansionary monetary policies and low interest rates to cure low global growth and sluggish trade.
|
|
Diokno managed an expansionary budget aimed at delivering an ambitious $180 billion infrastructure revamp central to Duterte's promises to create jobs and lift growth.
|
|
Diokno managed an expansionary budget aimed at delivering an ambitious $180 billion infrastructure revamp central to Duterte's promises to create jobs and lift growth.
|
|
"It's still early to say the economy, global and local, has emerged from long-term sluggishness and entered an expansionary positive cycle," said Yoo.
|
|
Fitch in June had warned that expansionary fiscal measures that could weaken Italy's debt position would be the main risk to its credit rating.
|
|
That has thwarted policymakers' hopes of creating an expansionary impulse in the sluggish economy, where higher pay drives up consumer spending and ultimately inflation.
|
|
That has thwarted policymakers' hopes of creating an expansionary impulse in the sluggish economy, where higher pay drives up consumer spending and ultimately inflation.
|
|
Italy is at loggerheads with the European Commission and many fellow euro zone governments over its expansionary 2019 budget, which breaks EU's fiscal rules.
|
|
Italy has drafted an expansionary budget that forecasts the deficit to rise to 2.4 percent of GDP in 2019 from 1.8 percent this year.
|
|
But the king faced a choice: to continue expansionary jihad, which would have invited conflict with the British, or to build a modern state.
|
|
And the Italian government has embarked on both an expansionary fiscal policy and a program of tax cuts, albeit trimmed down from initial proposals.
|
|
South Korea raised its growth outlook for this year on Tuesday and vowed to maintain an expansionary fiscal policy that would support job creation.
|
|
That means the current policy setting was not as expansionary as a 1.50 percent cash rate would have been in 1990s or early 2000s.
|
|
The best way to do that would be to hike interest rates progressively and scale back expansionary fiscal policies that risk overheating the economy.
|
|
Non-financial corporations borrowed record amounts in 2019 after a return to more expansionary monetary policies early last year, the Paris-based organization said.
|
|
"Monetary policy needs to remain expansionary for inflation to continue to be close to 2 per cent," the central bank said in a statement.
|
|
The real pioneer of QE, though, was the Bank of Japan, which has practiced expansionary monetary policy for decades, though to less clear results.
|
|
As Greenspan recently warned, the highly expansionary monetary policies of the past several years have given rise to a global government bond market bubble.
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"We don't believe equity de-rating is likely this year given expansionary fiscal policy, supportive global central banks, and attractive leverage and opportunity spreads."
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In Berlin, leading economic institutes urged the ECB to wait and weigh the effects of its bond-buying program before taking more expansionary steps.
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Despite the steady reading that was still in expansionary territory, business confidence slipped to the lowest level since the survey series began in April 2012.
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The European Commission has rejected Italy's expansionary budget and called on Rome to make changes to prevent a disciplinary procedure that could lead to fines.
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The Swiss National Bank's monetary policy framework must remain "expansionary" as concerns and uncertainties still lurk in Europe, its chairman explained to CNBC on Thursday.
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"The latest measures are fiscally expansionary and the risk is that funding them through spending cuts may prove difficult," Morgan Stanley economist Matthew Pennill wrote.
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" The central bank said it expects the South Korean economy to sustain its trend of modest growth in the future, due to "expansionary macroeconomic policies.
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The IMF on Wednesday raised its forecast for China's economic growth this year to 6.7 percent, citing "policy support, especially expansionary credit and public investment".
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In the advanced economies, expansionary monetary policy and the robust situation on the labour market are lending support, as is fiscal policy in some countries.
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News from South Korea was relatively cheery as its PMI reached a six-month high, yet at 50.5 it was just barely into expansionary territory.
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"If anything, cautious steps towards a more expansionary policy have to be expected: a pause in the process of balance sheet reduction," the note added.
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"The driving factors of the domestically supported upswing remain intact, including the excellent labor market, rising real wages and an expansionary fiscal policy," it said.
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So in the next-- five years-- we will continue our accommodative monetary policy, expansionary monetary policy to reach the 73% price target or inflation target.
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Yet, a strong dollar is precisely what the administration will get by its expansionary fiscal policy and by its increased import tariffs on its allies.
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It has promised the 2020 budget, a draft of which must be presented to Brussels by mid-October, will be expansionary without jeopardizing public finances.
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The case for a more expansionary fiscal policy varies depending on the individual, but arguments have included: It might spur more jobs at higher wages.
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"The Executive Board remains highly prepared to make monetary policy even more expansionary, if necessary, even between the ordinary monetary policy meetings," the bank said.
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The Bank of Japan currently owns nearly half of government bonds outstanding, and its expansionary policy stance will remain in place for the foreseeable future.
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The Italian economy was seen slowing more than previously expected despite the expansionary budget of the populist-led government that has created friction with Brussels.
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What NJPW has lacked in this expansionary period of the past few years has been a true cross-Pacific star moving from North America to Japan.
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"If the 1/8euro zone 3/8 economy cools significantly... the European Central Bank might be forced to stick to an expansionary monetary policy," she said.
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The government has responded by loosening its liquidity tap in money markets and speeding up infrastructure projects as it eyes expansionary fiscal policy to support growth.
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What we did last year with the fiscal deal of buying back 90% of the sequester means that we actually have mildly expansionary Federal fiscal policy.
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As the new administration is likely to turn more expansionary due to lower taxes, the Fed may be propelled to tighten policy more rapidly, he suggests.
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"The current account surplus remains high, although declining, and the fiscal stance is expected to be moderately expansionary over the forecast period," the Commission also said.
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Instead, I argued, doubts about U.S. finances would be reflected in higher inflation expectations and a weaker dollar – both of which would be expansionary, not contractionary.
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The two countries recently reiterated their desire in principle for joint exploration for resources, something Manila had resisted for fear it would validate China's expansionary claims.
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However, the ample liquidity provided by the ECB during years of ultra-expansionary monetary policy is shielding the interbank market from any tensions, Milan traders said.
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These austerity programs also had a dampening effect on growth with some international organizations, like the International Monetary Fund, are arguing for more expansionary fiscal policies.
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Abe came to power in 2012 promising to revive the economy with a fiscal and monetary expansionary policies, which sharply weakened the yen and supported demand.
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Germany's conviction that the problems of the euro zone are merely those of ill-disciplined states, encouraged by a recklessly expansionary monetary policy, has only grown.
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The exception is Serbia, where rates are the region's highest at 4.25 percent, and where the central bank said it expected its policy to remain "expansionary".
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The IMF's latest forecast for global growth painted a relatively rosy outlook for the world economy, which it said will benefit from America's expansionary fiscal policy.
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Political uncertainty and high borrowing costs will offset the expansionary policies adopted by the coalition government of the 5-Star Movement and the League, it warned.
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ECB President Mario Draghi and board member Benoit Coeure also acknowledged the limitations of the ECB's ultra-expansionary policy of low interest rates and money printing.
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Usually, the trade surplus countries — which are producing more than they are consuming and exporting their excess production — are prime candidates for expansionary demand management policies.
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BERLIN, April 6 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank should end its expansionary monetary policy soon, the president of the German banking association (BdB) said on Thursday.
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The continued expansionary measures were largely anticipated by analysts, especially given the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision last week to hold interest rates at 0.0 percent.
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If you agree with his thinking, an approach you could employ would be to go long technology stocks to ride the expansionary trend in that sector.
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Yet another way in which Trump seems to be undermining China's economic growth prospects is by the very expansionary U.S. fiscal policy that he is proposing.
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Rome officially approved an expansionary budget on Monday, but markets were relieved that Economy Minister Giovanni Tria remained in office, prompting a recovery in Italian bonds.
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Investors have been concerned an election win by Matteo Salvini's League would put Italy on a collision course with the European Union over expansionary government spending.
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"The monetary authorities are all still remaining expansionary," noted Gartman, given that easy central bank policy tends to undermine major currencies like the dollar and euro.
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Weidmann said he believed that inflation would continue to rise towards the ECB's target and argued that even without asset buys, ECB policy would remain expansionary.
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Italy's central bank warned that the rise in borrowing costs over recent months risked impacting the economy and cancelling out the expansionary effects of the budget.
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"A surge in U.S. growth — whether due to expansionary fiscal policies or other reasons — could provide a significant boost to the global economy," the bank said.
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"When paying for the policy by increasing taxes on households rather than paying for the policy with debt, the policy is not expansionary," the report says.
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"If the tone [in the economic bulletin] is negative enough it could justify the [ECB's] expansionary stance and could pull yields to the downside," Lenz said.
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Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri told La Repubblica newspaper on Sunday the government would ask parliament to approve an expansionary package worth 3.6 billion euros ($4.01 billion).
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Economists say that Trump's own expansionary budget policies will fuel ever larger trade deficits, essentially defeating his stated aim of having "balanced trade" with individual countries.
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Less expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, along with weaker housing investments, were among the factors curbing growth this year, while somewhat higher wage growth would be supportive.
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The Swedish government introduced a mildly expansionary budget, on the basis of an agreement between the government coalition (Social Democrats and Green Party) and the Left Party.
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While many observers lauded the budget as being expansionary and inclusive, some questioned the lack of assistance to smaller companies, who are grappling with rising business costs.
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"The candidates would likely look toward corporate tax reform, particularly on untaxed foreign profits, to fund their expansionary fiscal policies," Kostin wrote in the note to clients.
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Trump's surprise victory has led to a surge in U.S. government bond yields amid investor concerns that the business mogul's expansionary fiscal policy agenda could fan inflation.
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"It's necessary that monetary policy remain expansionary for a long time," Fabio Panetta, one of the Italian central banks's four executive board members, said in a speech.
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However, video game companies must keep publishing new and expansionary content for key franchises to keep customers engaged, which makes franchises still hit-driven to some extent.
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And the Fed will have no choice to at least hold monetary policy steady, if not become more expansionary following what the leads are from the ECB.
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It has until the end of the day to present a new budget to the European Commission or risk facing disciplinary action over its expansionary fiscal plans.
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The 2017-2018 two-year budget is expansionary, and we expect government debt/GDP to remain fairly level in 2016-2018 rather than continuing a downward path.
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The Commission said last week Italy's excessively expansionary 2019 budget was in breach of EU fiscal rules and would not decrease the country's large debt as required.
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Indeed, even as the Fed was successfully bringing inflation sharply lower, the Reagan administration was adopting a highly expansionary fiscal policy, pushing the budget deficit dramatically higher.
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Finance Minister Giovanni Tria, a technocrat with no party affiliation, defended Italy's much criticised expansionary fiscal policy but distanced himself from the proposed scheme of tax incentives.
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Benyan said the positive outlook for the global economy and a rise in oil prices as well as the Kingdom's expansionary budget would help the petrochemicals sector.
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Policy environments have remained accommodative or expansionary, but the era of growth fueled by stimulus with no side effects such as high inflation may be no more.
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A few members stated that the Fed is getting close to its "neutral" goal of setting a rate that is neither constrictive nor overly expansionary to growth.
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"Overall, the government presented an expansionary budget and prioritized populism over fiscal prudence," analysts at investment bank Nomura said in a note, calling it an election budget.
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For Nixon, invoking the phrase was an expansionary political strategy, a way for the Republican Party to reach traditionally Democratic white voters, especially in the urban North.
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Italy, the euro zone's third largest economy, has prepared an expansionary 2019 budget that sets up a showdown with authorities in Brussels over compliance with EU rules.
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In a case of slower top-line growth, we believe the company has the flexibility to hold back expansionary capex to maintain a more neutral FCF profile.
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The finance ministry also has limited space to help given already-low tax rates, along with numerous incentives and cost offsets and an expansionary budget this year.
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There is also a UK government budget review due on March 11 that most analysts said will be expansionary, which could also alter the pound's trading path.
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Since the ECB last met, Italy's anti-establishment government has delivered an expansionary budget — sparking a clash with the EU and sending Italian bond yields up sharply.
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"However, such a stance may be overly expansionary, since it may fuel undesirable overheating in some Member States and would add to fiscal sustainability concerns," it said.
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The real short-term interest rate, measured by the effective federal funds rate and the CPI, is still minus 1 percent, signifying a vastly expansionary monetary policy.
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"The reaction stresses the uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of negative policy rates as expansionary tools when inflation expectations are anchored at low levels," the Fed paper said.
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However, the fact that the economy is operating above capacity indicates that the fiscal policy stance is expansionary, in contrast with the central bank's monetary policy stance.
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The sterling surged 0.7% amid strong expectations that the appointment of a new British finance minister will pave the way for a more expansionary budget next month.
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Trump's surprise victory has led to a surge in U.S. government bond yields amid investor concerns that the business mogul's proposed expansionary fiscal policy agenda could fan inflation.
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But Li warned downside risks to growth remained, which could see the Chinese government continue with expansionary monetary and fiscal policies in the second half of the year.
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Italian banks fell after Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said the government would not backtrack on its expansionary 2019 budget law following a rejection by the EU Commission.
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Many of Asia's emerging markets have ambitious infrastructure development plans that should boost employment and domestic demand, while fiscal policy is turning more expansionary in some developed markets.
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Its investor roadshow took place as Italian banking stocks fell victim to concern over Italy's expansionary draft budget, which was officially rejected by the European Commission on Tuesday.
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For now, the ECB reckons it has not reached the "effective lower bound"—the point at which the expansionary effects of negative interest rates stop outweighing any costs.
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Italian 10-year bond yields rose to 4 1/2-year highs earlier this week on tension between Rome and the European Union over Italy's expansionary budget plans.
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The latest Purchasing Managers' Index in China rose above 50 to enter expansionary territory for the first time in four months, with new orders and purchase volumes advancing.
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"The RBNZ will not be so quick to move higher in response to expansionary fiscal policy," said Christina Leung, economist at the New Zealand Institute for Economic Research.
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Investors were encouraged by more signs that China's economy is stabilizing, with a Reuters poll showing manufacturing sector activity likely held onto a modest expansionary trend this month.
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However, Rome can point to weakening economic prospects in Italy and Europe, which the government says bolster the case for an expansionary, growth-oriented budget to avert recession.
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Although growth in the service sector held above the key 50 expansionary level, the January official non-manufacturing purchasing manager's index slowed to 53.5 from 54.4 in December.
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"But the important question is whether the adjustment of the path of inflation towards below, but close to, 2% would continue without our expansionary monetary policy," he said.
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On Tuesday, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said the U.S. unemployment rate is nearing its natural rate and that the central bank is still conducting expansionary monetary policy.
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At the Fed's December meeting, Yellen strongly indicated the Fed does not need expansionary fiscal policy to reach its goals when the economy is already at full employment.
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Such an expansionary policy mix is likely to pose problems at a time when the consumer and wholesale prices are projected to accelerate considerably in the months ahead.
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Expansionary fiscal policy and infrastructure spending have supported domestic demand around much of the region, and some economies are making progress on reforms, most notably India and Indonesia.
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"There can be no doubt that if we needed to adopt a more expansionary policy, the risk of side effects would not stand in our way," Draghi said.
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While employment edged up at a weaker pace in October, the gauge for outstanding business rose further into expansionary territory, with businesses citing insufficient staffing as a reason.
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While the closely-watched barometer remains firmly in expansionary territory, it also declined to a two-year low due to pressure from China's slowdown and the trade war.
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The IMF noted, however, that Trump's plans for expansionary fiscal measures including tax cuts and infrastructure spending also could stoke inflation in an economy already nearing full employment.
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Trump received support from Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, all of which oppose what they say are Iran's expansionary moves in the Middle East.
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The bank has repeatedly said the country's widening current account deficit - fuelled by expansionary fiscal and wage policies - left the European Union state vulnerable to shifting investor sentiment.
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The bank has repeatedly said the country's widening current account deficit - fuelled by expansionary fiscal and wage policies - left the European Union state vulnerable to shifting investor sentiment.
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This is the second letter sent to Rome by the EU executive over Italy's expansionary draft budget for next year which is in breach of EU fiscal rules.
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The euro area is at risk of a new real estate bubble as a result of expansionary monetary policy from the European Central Bank (ECB), Commerzbank analysts have warned.
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Italian 10-year bond yields rose to 4 1/2-year highs earlier this week on tension between Rome and the European Union over the government's expansionary budget plans.
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Investors have been dumping bonds after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, as investors brace for rising inflation in the United States amid expectations of expansionary fiscal policies.
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The SNB would maintain its expansionary monetary policy, she said, despite the franc losing around 5 percent of its value this year as political risks in Europe have waned.
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Italy's case for an expansionary budget has been strengthened by recent concessions to protesters in France, where League officials say the deficit will now exceed EU limits next year.
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"High-risk financial operations have shrunk and some institutions have toned down their barbaric expansionary behavior," the government said in a statement posted on its official website on Tuesday.
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"This could help explain why our current measures have been so effective in stoking the recovery: they may have been more expansionary than many believed," Coeure said in Paris.
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Fitch expects a moderately expansionary fiscal stance in 2016 and 2017, in large part due to migrant-related expenditures, with a general government balance of 0% in both years.
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To limit overheating risks and avoid overburdening monetary policy, the IMF last month urged the government to adjust its budget deficit targets to make it "neutral" rather than expansionary.
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"Our expectation is that fiscal policy will become slightly more expansionary over the next two years, and we are increasing our government spending numbers slightly to account for this."
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Even during the current expansionary frenzy, pay for pastry line-cooks in the Chicago area hovers in the same $10 to $15 an hour that it has for years.
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The borrowing target was agreed after a long tussle with the European Commission, which had rejected Italy's original plan for a more expansionary budget and a 2.4 percent deficit.
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Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan recently warned that the highly expansionary monetary policies of the past several years have given rise to a global government bond market bubble.
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Italy's populist government has locked horns with the EU Commission over an expansionary 2019 draft budget, sparking a sell-off of Italian assets and driving up Rome's debt costs.
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But Trump's expansionary fiscal policy (deficit spending) is likely to dramatically reduce domestic saving, and over time he hopes to boost investment through corporate tax cuts and infrastructure projects.
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He added this year's supplementary budget and expansionary government spending for five to seven years would avoid relying on issuing new treasury bonds but rather on surplus tax revenue.
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In addition to rising oil prices and a tight job market, inflation is likely to get a boost from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed expansionary fiscal policy agenda.
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Columbia, which is based in Houston, is regulated, eliminating the possibility of sharp growth during expansionary times, but also easing pressure to cut fees in a depressed energy market.
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"If the markets are right, the major central banks may turn their monetary policy around, into a more expansionary direction," Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves said in the meeting minutes.
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If demand is likely to fall sharply in the near future, then a more expansionary monetary policy can help ensure that the Fed hits its 28503 percent inflation target.
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Investors fear they would be won by Matteo Salvini's hard-right League party, which would put Rome on a collision course with the European Union over expansionary government spending.
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With the RBI not predicted to provide an additional boost over the near term, the government was expected to announce more expansionary measures at its Union Budget on Feb.
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Germany is heading towards a tightly contested federal election of its own in September, and senior politicians there have repeatedly urged the ECB to start unwinding its expansionary policy.
|
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Alan Ruskin, head of G10 forex at Deutsche, noted the top five PMIs were all Northern European economies and every index in Europe was in expansionary territory above 50.
|
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ROME (Reuters) - Italy's government stuck by its economic forecasts on Thursday, dismissing more pessimistic ones from the European Commission as a row over the country's expansionary 2019 budget rumbled on.
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Italy, which has Europe's second-largest sovereign debt burden after Greece, has already angered the European Union with an expansionary 2019 budget and Salvini wants to make major tax cuts.
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Last week, China appointed Xiao Jie as new finance minister who is expected to maintain an expansionary fiscal policy and push reforms to put a lid on mounting debt levels.
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However, futures expectations are notoriously volatile, and continued wage pressure, as well as Trump following through on expansionary fiscal policy promises, will change the market's collective mind in a hurry.
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Speaking at the annual Assiom-Forex conference, Visco said the ECB's governing council remained convinced of the need to keep the current expansionary stance for an extended period of time.
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Italy is locked in a tussle with the EU executive, which last week rejected the populist government's expansionary budget and asked Rome to submit a new one within three weeks.
|
|
A spokeswoman for the economy ministry in Rome defended the expansionary budget and said Italy remained convinced that the only way to cut public debt was by boosting economic growth.
|
|
FRANKFURT, April 12 (Reuters) - An expansionary monetary policy is currently appropriate, the head of Germany's central bank told the Financial Times in an interview published on its website on Tuesday.
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"The overriding fundamental, whether it's the United States or Europe or Japan, is that the monetary authorities are continuing to be extraordinarily expansionary and they have no choice," he said.
|
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The expansionary budget, which was officially approved on Monday, sets up a showdown with Brussels because the plan accommodates the big spending and tax cutting ambitions of the coalition partners.
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|
For one thing, the dollar has risen already and should rise further as expansionary Trump policy stokes inflation and both allows and forces the Federal Reserve to boost interest rates.
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"The ECB has...an expansionary monetary policy allowing us to recover economically and we need to be aware of potential risks that may come from the QE policy," Dijsselbloem said.
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However, Benoit Cœure, a member of the ECB's executive board, failed to rule out the bank becoming even more expansionary at its next meeting, in an interview with Rheinische Post.
|
|
Going back to the question of whether Trump should have a plan for Yemen, I think Trump and his administration are fully aware of Iran's expansionary ambition in the region.
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"I would not like to talk about a particular scenario, there may be many scenarios," Diaz de Leon said when asked how the bank could react to expansionary fiscal policies.
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The decision to start with a 50-basis-point cut, with monetary policy already expansionary and interest rates historically low, shows that the central bank is confident in its strategy.
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|
BERLIN, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Leading economic institutes on Thursday urged the European Central Bank to wait and weigh the effects of its bond-buying programme before taking more expansionary steps.
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Rome risks being put under a disciplinary procedure by European partners after it presented an expansionary 2019 budget, revising up fiscal targets compared with goals agreed by the previous government.
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Italian European Affairs Minister Paolo Savona said on Tuesday the government could change its expansionary 2019 budget plan if market pressure on Italy intensifies too much, Ansa news agency reported.
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The fall in economic growth will be the result of the rapidly narrowing scope to sustain expansionary policies that have supported it in the past years, Fitch said on Thursday.
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Conte laid out a wide-ranging policy programme, promising expansionary measures to boost the stagnant economy, pledging to head off a big VAT increase set to kick in on Jan.
|
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The likely new government might increase the debt further, as Five-Star's leader Luigi Di Maio said that "the recipe to lower public debt is by investments and expansionary policies".
|
|
Investors fear early elections would be won by Matteo Salvini's hard-right League party, which could put Rome on a collision course with the European Union over expansionary government spending.
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|
If we became the United States of America, the thinking went, the monarchies of Europe in particular would think longer and harder about satisfying their expansionary urges in North America.
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One Milan-based trader said barring a major stock market correction, he was confident European equities could outperform Wall Street given monetary policy in the euro zone was still expansionary.
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|
"Turkey's central bank is right now pursuing an expansionary policy, so the focus still remains on revamping credit growth," said Cristian Maggio, head of emerging markets strategy at TD Securities.
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McMaster's expansionary framework is crucial to his dismissal of and deterrence as a viable option with North Korea and his push for Washington to take an aggressive, military-first approach.
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The United States is currently running a mix of expansionary fiscal policy (tax cuts and increased spending on the military) and a less accommodative or contractionary financial policy (rising interest rates).
|
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Germany is running expansionary fiscal policies to counter a slowdown in economy growth and the stimulus will boost growth significantly this year, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said on Friday.
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|
"As inflation and inflation expectations have become established at around 2 per cent, the need for a highly expansionary monetary policy has decreased slightly," the central bank said in a statement.
|
|
But, after more than six months in power, "there has not been a significant reform push" by the Mahathir-led government "which can potentially lead to expansionary economic activity," Nomura noted.
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Asian markets have hit the bottom and will likely turn around in 2019 due to China's expansionary monetary policies to help spur economic growth, a Morgan Stanley strategist said on Thursday.
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The Unilever bid is over, but the tension between the vast personal integrity of Warren Buffett and the corporate integrity of those now running an expansionary Kraft Heinz isn't going away.
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MANILA (Reuters) - The incoming administration of Philippines President-elect Rodrigo Duterte will have enough fiscal space to support a more expansionary fiscal policy stance, the outgoing finance minister said on Friday.
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"Monetary policy cannot be the only game in town and should be coupled with fiscal support where fiscal space is available and where policy is not already too expansionary," it said.
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China suffered a major defeat Tuesday as an international court rebuked its claims on distant waters that contain the world's busiest shipping lanes and declared some of its expansionary tactics illegal.
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"There is a definite slowdown in day-to-day work as well, because companies are holding off on concrete expansionary plans or changes," said the person, who declined to be named.
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True, Italy's new budget is mildly expansionary: it aims for a deficit of 1.6% of GDP whereas the government had estimated that, if nothing were changed, it would shrink to 1.0%.
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But as Abe's expansionary policies struggle to rekindle growth, Uniqlo has reversed those rises, lowering prices last year and stepping up discounts again in the first two months of this year.
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"Budget 23.2 will likely be generous and expansionary, setting the stage for a possible early general election," analysts from Malaysian financial services firm Maybank Kim Eng wrote in a recent report.
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|
Expansionary fiscal and wage policies have increased Romania's budget and current account deficits, while tax hikes and energy price caps approved without public debate and impact assessment have dented investors' appetite.
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BERLIN (Reuters) - German annual inflation turned positive in March, preliminary data showed on Wednesday, suggesting that the European Central Bank's expansionary monetary policy is helping buoy prices in the euro zone.
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German media, cited by Reuters, reported on Friday that Schaeuble planned to call for a turnaround in expansionary monetary policy internationally at the G-20 meeting later this month in Shanghai.
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If we discount the likelihood of expansionary fiscal policy then we're left with the parts of the Trump manifesto which tend to cause inflation but stifle growth: immigration controls and tariffs.
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Trump has pledged tax cuts and massive infrastructure spending, an expansionary fiscal policy agenda that could fan inflation and spur a faster pace of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve.
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|
"Expansionary monetary policy ... supports the economy in the short run, but the limitations are imminent and negative side-effects are becoming stronger," Dijsselbloem said in a speech to the Peterson Institute.
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|
Overall expenditure for 250/225.5 will increase 22017 percent over the previous year to HK$303 billion ($230 billion) in one of the most expansionary budgets in recent years, Chan said.
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"We proposed it to be expansionary to support the new administration's policy pledges, as well as to aid job creation and growing needs for welfare," the ministry said in a statement.
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The quarter-on-quarter contraction was less severe than the previous three quarters, boosted by higher public works spending and a more expansionary monetary policy from the central bank, Costa said.
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The country suffered a recession this year, but has returned to growth on the back of expansionary fiscal policy, credit expansion from state-owned banks and a loosening of monetary policy.
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The move, which confirms a Reuters report this week, allows the EU executive Commission to recommend the formal opening of a disciplinary procedure against Italy regarding its over-expansionary 2019 budget.
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This didn't have to happen; with more than $360 billion in foreign currency reserves, Brazil is not constrained by the balance of payments, and therefore could recover with expansionary macroeconomic policies.
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BEIJING, June 14 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday raised its forecast for China's economic growth this year to 6.7 percent, citing "policy support, especially expansionary credit and public investment".
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"Nevertheless, the data was still expansionary, showing tepid but positive growth," Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management in New York, said of the April jobs data.
|
|
Alan Ruskin, head of G10 forex at Deutsche Bank, noted the top five PMIs were all Northern European economies and every index in Europe was now in expansionary territory above 50.
|
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The German government could commit itself to the pursuit of a more expansionary budget policy than it is doing now with a view to reducing that country's level of public savings.
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On Wednesday, the European Commission took its first step towards disciplining Italy over its expansionary 2019 budget after Rome refused to change it, paving the way for an excessive deficit procedure.
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Italian officials said Conte is also trying to arrange other meetings, including with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who has been one of the staunchest critics of Italy's excessively expansionary budget.
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|
Economists overwhelmingly agree Australia's ruling centre-right coalition must embark on an expansionary fiscal programme but Prime Minister Scott Morrison is wedded to the idea of delivering a surplus this year.
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A separate survey showed services sector activity remained well in expansionary territory, but construction growth eased, with a sub-reading for construction activity standing at 57.6, down from 61.2 in August.
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And Italy's new government has signaled it will deliver an expansionary 2020 budget while it drums up support for its campaign to re-focus the EU's budget rules to promote growth.
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Flug noted that the bank would not necessarily follow interest rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve, especially since the European Central Bank is expected to stick to very expansionary policies.
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Among the hopeful, Keynesians — for whom the New Deal was the apogee of policy-making success — want more expansionary fiscal policies, particularly spending on investment-type programs like rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure.
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After a prolonged period of expansionary monetary policy, the ECB is now pursuing the "normalization" of policy, essentially a return to conventional tools — like interest rates — at the center of its policy.
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Reduced expectations of another rise in U.S. interest rates this year and the expansionary fiscal policies flagged by U.S. President Donald Trump that could boost inflation helped to push down bond yields.
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The budget contains around 9 billion euros of expansionary measures aimed at stimulating growth, including tax breaks for companies that invest in machinery and for people doing building work on their homes.
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"This is the 7th consecutive month that China's official manufacturing PMI stayed within expansionary territory, suggesting that industrial activity remains buoyant," said Zhou Hao, emerging markets economist at Commerzbank AG in Singapore.
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"We will continue to implement an extremely accommodative, expansionary monetary policy not just to reach to 2 percent but to allow actual inflation go beyond 2 percent," he said in a seminar.
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Donald Trump's platform has an inflationary bias: his fiscal policy is likely to be expansionary, and he leans toward protectionism, which is inflationary due to the effects of tariffs and curtailed immigration.
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Peter Hug, global trading director at Kitco, said this isn't surprising, because Yellen is in the unenviable position of trying to normalize U.S. interest-rate policy after years of expansionary monetary policy.
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"In 2017, we expect growth to remain stable in the first half, as expansionary fiscal spending should offset the drag from a cooling property sector," economists at Nomura said in a note.
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"This is the 228.7th consecutive month that China's official manufacturing PMI stayed within expansionary territory, suggesting that industrial activity remains buoyant," said Zhou Hao, emerging markets economist at Commerzbank AG in Singapore.
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" Though the minutes suggested that the committee may be open to more rate cuts, not all may be in favour if the budget, to be presented on July 5, is expansionary. "Dr.
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Stephen Gallo, head of European FX strategy with Bank of Montreal in London, said any hint that the new government's next budget will be more expansionary in nature might boost the pound.
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ROME (Reuters) - Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said on Friday that Italy's expansionary 2019 budget, which is contested by the European Commission, will prevent the kind of unrest that has rocked France.
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STRASBOURG (Reuters) - The vice president of the European Commission warned the Italian government on Monday there was little time left to change its expansionary 2019 draft budget and avoid EU disciplinary procedure.
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The expansionary budget - contested by Brussels for not respecting European rules - is currently being discussed by parliament and is due to receive a final green light by the end of the year.
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"This fall was much steeper than most analysts had forecast and should dampen speculation about an imminent exit of the ECB from its ultra-expansionary monetary policy," Commerzbank economist Christoph Weil said.
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"There is more belief that monetary policy will be tightened now that fiscal policy is likely to be more expansionary," said Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Credit Agricole in New York.
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Rome's debt costs, which risked spiralling out of control during the sovereign debt crisis of 2011-2012, are set to rise as the European Central Bank starts unwinding its ultra-expansionary policies.
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Congress will have less flexibility to implement expansionary fiscal policy during economic downturns; investors would likely need higher interest rates to compensate for the risk of investing in an increasingly volatile economy.
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New export orders for Chinese manufacturers bounced back into expansionary territory for the first time in five months even as a long trade war between the United States and China wears on.
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Analysts said that with markets positioned for no significant changes to Italy's expansionary budget, any signs of compromise or strong demand at Tuesday's auction would help shore up a battered bond market.
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With the economy showing signs of moderation, the government will probably announce short-term relief measures and capital spending initiatives to sustain growth in an expansionary budget on Wednesday, local media reported.
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Discretionary Capex - Infrastructure Development and Renewal: Stronger The T&R sites are well maintained and do not require expansionary capex to accommodate the projected traffic under our Fitch base and rating cases.
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For budget highlights, click on Chan's budget this year was less expansionary than last year with fewer big ticket expenditures though there were a mix of relief measures for individuals and businesses.
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Yaron said the central bank would continue with expansionary policies since the inflation trend has changed - moving to an annual rate of 0.5% in July from a peak of 1.5% in May.
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In 2010 the Fund produced a report on austerity policies (Chapter 3) that was in effect a response to the "expansionary austerity" literature, using the historical record to assess past austerity policies.
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New export orders for Chinese manufacturers bounced back into expansionary territory for the first time in five months even as a long trade war between the United States and China wears on.
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Corporate bond issuance has been broadly driven by structural reforms and more expansionary monetary policy worldwide, emerging as a viable source of long-term funding for non-financial companies since the crisis.
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"Monetary policy cannot be the only game in town and should be coupled with fiscal support where fiscal space is available and where policy is not already too expansionary," the IMF said.
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Speaking at an economic conference in Italy, he said the European Central Bank would continue to do its job and buy time with its ultra-expansionary monetary policies even though reforms lagged.
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In his speech Tria tried to strike a balance between promising a growth-friendly, expansionary package while maintaining the confidence of markets and avoiding a head-on clash with the European Commission.
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The Fed is now back in expansionary mode, though officials insist that the new Treasury note-buying is not the same as the old QE, which focused on longer-duration government debt.
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"In the current situation, it is not something that ... we can make have a better development by having a more expansionary monetary policy," Breman told reporters on the sidelines of a conference.
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"If the tone 20203/8in the economic bulletin 3/8 is negative enough it could justify the 1/8ECB's 3/8 expansionary stance and could pull yields to the downside," Lenz said.
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"A cash rate of 1% for an economy with an 11-year low in unemployment, rising wages and expansionary fiscal policy may remove any downside risk from our 2020 growth forecast," said Williamson.
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Economic enthusiasm has grown on the hopes that the new climate in Washington will shift the focus from cheap-money, low-rate monetary policy to an expansionary fiscal policy — that is, lower taxes.
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China does not see its economic expansionary cycle coming to an end, Wang added, seeking to dispel market concerns that faltering domestic demand and bruising U.S. tariffs could spark a major slowdown ahead.
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Almost all members "also indicated that the upside risks to their forecasts for economic growth had increased as a result of prospects for more expansionary fiscal policies in coming years," the minutes said.
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"More expansionary U.S. fiscal policies could lead to stronger growth in the United States and abroad over the near-term, but changes to trade or other policies could offset those gains," he added.
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The faltering economy was one reason given by the ruling coalition for presenting an expansionary 2019 budget that has riled the European Commission, which says it will push up Italy's mammoth public debt.
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France supports Renzi's push for expansionary measures and against austerity, Germany is likely to oppose any undermining of Europe's deficit and the debt constraints that Italy and France have struggled to comply with.
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"Expansionary monetary policy... supports the economy in the short run, but the limitations are imminent and negative side effects are becoming stronger," Dijsselbloem said in a speech at the Peterson Institute in Washington.
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The government's 'plan B' would involve redefining the retirement measures and the basic income for the poor, two key points of its expansionary budget, il Messagero reported, without giving details of its sources.
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So in a sense when I talk about this balance in the three policies, if you have monetary policy that is expansionary in place, there is no reason not to have structural reforms.
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Total new orders edged back to expansionary territory in February at 50.2, compared with January's 47.3 and ending two months' of contraction, with output prices growing for the first time in four months.
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The United States is pursuing an expansionary fiscal policy combined with a restrictive monetary policy, causing the real exchange rate to appreciate, while simultaneously trying to reduce the external trade deficit with tariffs.
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"We all hoped that the reaction of the economy would have been much quicker as a result of the expansionary monetary policy we have put in place," Constancio told a conference in Frankfurt.
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The Fed would describe whether previous policy settings were too expansionary or too contractionary, and— more importantly — provide specific data on inflation, unemployment and related variables that allowed them to reach that judgment.
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The change comes months after Powell indicated plans to raise interest rates and cool down the US economy, moves that run counter to President Donald Trump's expansionary moves, including last year's tax cuts.
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Last year, defying the most basic principles of sound budget management, the administration opted for a highly expansionary budget policy stance at a time that the economy was at or beyond full employment.
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"Buoyed by the boom in industrial activity, the German economy is likely to remain on a strongly expansionary path in the final quarter of 2017, too," the Bundesbank said in its monthly report.
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Italy is at loggerheads with the Commission over its expansionary 2019 budget, which Brussels rejected in October, saying it failed to reduce Italy's very high public debt as required under European Union rules.
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While that eliminates the possibility of sharp growth during expansionary times, it also means that the pipeline company will not face pressures to cut its fees because of the currently depressed energy market.
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New Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is due to present a budget on July 5 that many analysts expect to be expansionary, though the she cannot afford to let the deficit slip too much.
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The central banks "pledge to maintain expansionary policies for as long as needed and stand ready to take further action, using the full range of instruments consistent with our mandates," the statement said.
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It also appears likely that the new government will conduct an expansionary policy since it has lots of cash in its coffers to alleviate large-scale economic distress and growing socio-economic unrest.
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BERLIN, Oct 16 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank should rethink its expansionary monetary policy, and inflation target, Austrian National Bank Governor Robert Holzmann told German business daily Handelsblatt in remarks published on Wednesday.
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Hong Kong unveiled short-term relief measures and capital spending initiatives to sustain growth in an expansionary budget on Wednesday that carried hefty strategic spending to try to bolster the city's innovation industries.
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Jordan also said the SNB was in "no hurry at all" to normalise monetary policy and planned to maintain its expansionary policy as long as necessary to maintain appropriate monetary conditions in Switzerland.
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In the 1970s, Richard Nixon placed undue pressure on then Fed Chair Arthur Burns to pursue an expansionary monetary policy in an effort to bring the unemployment rate down and secure his reelection.
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Italy's coalition government is locked in dispute with the European Commission over an expansionary 2019 budget which raises the planned fiscal deficit to 2.4 percent of gross domestic product from 1.8 percent this year.
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He started by effusively praising the economy after taking over as chair and has gone out of his way to avoid commenting on Trump and congressional Republicans' expansionary fiscal policy, or the federal deficit.
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LONDON (Reuters) - The pound extended gains on Thursday after the resignation of British finance minister Sajid Javid, as investors bet that his replacement would pave the way for a more expansionary budget next month.
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Germany more than doubled its economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2016, following a boost to domestic consumption that may have derived from the European Central Bank (ECB)'s expansionary monetary policy.
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The European Commission said last year that the aggregate fiscal stance of the euro zone should be expansionary to the tune of 0.5 percent of GDP to address the euro zone's negative output gap.
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"But in case of a deterioration it will have to be much more expansionary," Draghi told the leaders, underlining the importance of introducing an U deposit guarantee scheme and completing a capital markets union.
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"The ECB has to deliver on its price stability mandate and thus an expansionary monetary policy stance is appropriate at this juncture regardless of different views about specific measures," he told the Financial Times.
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But the EU's executive arm last year stopped short of calling for an expansionary fiscal stance for the euro zone, a move that would have put pressure on Germany to raise investment and wages.
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ROME (Reuters) - The end of the European Central Bank's expansionary monetary policies is nearing and banks should prepare for the risks that the new phase will bring, a top ECB supervisor said on Wednesday.
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The finance ministry said in its monthly report that rising private consumption, an eventual normalisation of the European Central Bank's expansionary monetary policy and demographic factors in Germany are likely to narrow the surplus.
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Italy should stop attacking the European Commission over its fiscal policy, the EU executive's president said on Monday, as Rome and Brussels quarrel over an expansionary budget proposed by Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.
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Underlining the nervous mood, La Repubblica newspaper featured prominently remarks made by credit rating agency Fitch in late June saying the main risk Italy ran was that expansionary fiscal measures could weaken debt dynamics.
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In fact, the Federal Open Markets Committee demonstrated its satisfaction with the state of the economy Wednesday when it raised its target federal funds rate 0.25 percent, rather than continue an expansionary monetary policy.
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On Monday, China named Xiao Jie as new finance minister and he is expected to maintain an expansionary fiscal policy and push reforms to put a lid on rising debt levels in the economy.
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And Germany has steadfastly resisted the easing of interest rates and other expansionary measures to stimulate investment, which could enable the rest of Europe to pull itself out of recession the way Germany has.
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Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte discussed the contested financial package with his two deputies, Matteo Salvini and Luigi Di Maio, against the backdrop of possible disciplinary action from Brussels unless the expansionary plans are altered.
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While still easily in expansionary territory, China's monthly official factory survey also showed unexpected weakness in new export orders, which had been expected to pick up heading into the peak year-end shopping season.
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Italian bond yields risked spiraling out of control during the sovereign debt crisis of 53-2012 and were only reined in by the European Central Bank's ultra-expansionary policies, which are being scaled down.
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For his part, Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco has frequently criticised the government, warning that any potential benefits of its expansionary fiscal policies risk being outweighed by the higher borrowing costs they produce.
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At a time that Germany should be following a more expansionary budget policy to correct its large external surplus, it insists on further tightening its belt to keep the government's budget permanently in surplus.
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This expansionary budget comes at a time of economic struggle — the country entered into recession this year, contracting 0.5 percent — but the government is optimistic, estimating growth to rebound to 2.7 percent in 2018.
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FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank need to give its existing policies time to work and its current expansionary stance is appropriate, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said on Monday, dismissing calls for further easing.
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Forsaking the agreement, the president insisted, would undercut the United States' standing in the fast-growing Asia-Pacific region as a reliable counterweight to an expansionary China, economically and militarily, for America's allies there.
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For his part, Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco has frequently criticized the government, warning that any potential benefits of its expansionary fiscal policies risk being outweighed by the higher borrowing costs they produce.
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FCF Partly Mitigates Refinancing Risks: We expect Eurotorg to generate positive free cash flow (FCF) at around 4807123%-212001% of sales over 2017-2020, due to moderate expansionary capex and projected stable operating performance.
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ROME (Reuters) - Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said on Tuesday he was proud of his government's freshly approved expansionary budget while the European Commission warned it may run into opposition from euro zone partners.
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But starting in mid-July, the environment changed sharply, with the inflation rate sliding and global central banks stepping up expansionary policies, pushing the Bank of Israel to move in line with its peers.
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"We will continue to implement an extremely accommodative, expansionary monetary policy not just to reach to 2 percent but to allow actual inflation go beyond 2 percent," he told a seminar later on Friday.
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The euro area, the core component of the European Union, is failing to implement an expansionary monetary-fiscal policy mix that would prop up its sluggish economy and contribute to global demand and employment.
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TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan should delay raising the sales tax and commit to an expansionary fiscal policy until inflation meets the Bank of Japan's 2 percent inflation target, Nobel laureate Christopher Sims said on Monday.
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"The left has always been able to govern during expansionary moments, during the construction of the economy after World War II," says Nadia Urbinati, an Italian political theorist at Columbia University in New York.
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Back in 2013 during the so-called taper tantrum, global investors pulled billions of dollars out of emerging-market economies after the Fed indicated that it would pull back on its expansionary monetary policies.
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Bitonci said that Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte was tasked with finding "a convergence" with the EU but added that there was limited leeway as the government wanted to keep the budget as an expansionary one.
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Because of this partial compliance with EU recommendations, the French budget for next year had been already judged at risk of non-compliance by the EU Commission last month, before the planned additional expansionary measures.
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Economy Minister Giovanni Tria denied reports that he planned to resign after the budget has been approved by parliament, and said he was confident he could explain the expansionary package to a worried European Commission.
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The euro area expansion is supported by favourable financing conditions, further employment gains in conjunction with rising wages, the mildly expansionary euro area fiscal stance and the ongoing – albeit somewhat slower – growth in global activity.
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Expansionary fiscal and wage policies by the outgoing Social Democrat government have boosted Romania's deficits, while tax hikes, energy price caps approved without public debate, and moves to weaken the judiciary have dented investors' appetite.
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Balboni highlighted German wage growth hitting a 20-year high and unemployment fears across the bloc remaining broadly low, suggesting that in combination with "mildly expansionary fiscal stances geared towards consumers," this could support consumption.
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Tria said Italy believed the "moderately expansionary" budget was needed to counter a slowdown in the economy and that he would "continue dialogue with the Commission to seek a shared solution in our mutual interests".
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"It would widen the output gap, and it may generate an expansionary response of monetary policy or an extension of the current stance of monetary policy" Marcel said on the sidelines of an investment conference.
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Lower U.S. interest rates would "support a continuation in global expansionary activities and fuel demand growth" for the second half of 2019, Benjamin Lu, an analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore, said in a note.
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Growth prospects have improved in Britain, Europe and Japan in recent months, while expectations for expansionary fiscal policy from the Trump administration, including tax cuts and infrastructure spending, were improving prospects in the United States.
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Rather, it would be by seeking budget policy coordination between Germany and the United States that would involve a more expansionary budget policy for Germany and a more disciplined budget policy for the United States.
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BEIJING (Reuters) - Activity in China's manufacturing sector likely held onto a modest expansionary trend this month, a Reuters poll showed, as industrial firms continued to benefit from higher producer prices and a recovery in demand.
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BERLIN (Reuters) - The German parliament wants to invite European Central Bank President Mario Draghi to explain the bank's ultra-low interest rates and expansionary monetary policy, sources in the coalition government told Reuters on Tuesday.
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"We and (the Commission) want the same thing: to reduce the debt," Di Maio said on Facebook after the EU executive launched a disciplinary procedure against Italy over its expansionary 2019 budget which increases borrowing.
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After all, the 85033-percent inflation and 10-percent unemployment of 2009 weren't desirable outcomes, and a more expansionary policy in 2008 would have pushed both inflation and employment up closer to the Fed's targets.
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The Western-backed coalition of Sunni Muslim Arab states intervened in Yemen's war in 2015 to restore the internationally recognized government in exile and thwart what Riyadh sees as Iran's expansionary ambitions in the region.
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ROME, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said on Friday the government would put the economic interests of Italians ahead of European Union "bureaucrats," in response to Brussels's concerns about Rome's expansionary budget.
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The single currency had jumped above $1.09 in March for the first time since early November after Draghi signaled a diminishing urgency for expansionary policy, with investors pricing a possible rate hike in early 2018.
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"Draghi made it very clear that he's not intending any change in the forward guidance, that policy still needs to remain expansionary for a very long time," said Commerzbank currency strategist Esther Reichelt, in Frankfurt.
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The budget "will not change but we are discussing" it with the EU Commission, Tria told reporters after a meeting of euro zone finance ministers during which he was asked to change the expansionary budget.
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Market-based inflation expectations EUIL5YF5Y=R are also near their 2016 high in anticipation of a more expansionary U.S. fiscal policy under the new Republican administration with positive spillovers for global, including euro zone, growth.
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"We all hoped that reaction of the economy would have been much quicker as a result of the expansionary monetary policy we have put in place," ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio told the same conference.
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As voting got under way earlier in the day, 5-Star and PD unveiled a shared, 26-point policy programme for their mooted coalition, putting an expansionary 2020 budget at the top of their agenda.
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A new coalition comprising the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) has put a more expansionary 2020 budget at the top of its agenda to head off recession risks.
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With U.S. markets shut for a holiday on Monday, though, investors remained on the sidelines while looking to see what expansionary policies the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve could unveil this month.
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"My view is that with the expansionary financial policy we had in the last few years, we did our job," said Scholz, who claimed that public investment in Germany was also at a record high.
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The rating is predicated upon free cash flow (FCF) achieving break-even in 2019-20 as we think that management will assess new expansionary projects then in light of the competitive landscape and funding environment.
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BRUSSELS, Nov 16 (Reuters) - The euro zone as a whole needs to loosen its fiscal policy next year to make it moderately expansionary to boost the sluggish economic recovery, the European Commission said on Wednesday.
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Second, and more important, Kelton seems to claim that expansionary fiscal policy – in Figure 1, policy that pushes the IS curve out from IS2 to IS3 – will lead to lower, not higher interest rates. Why?
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" "From the macro point of view, the risks for public finances coming from the expansionary spending measures contained in the League-5 Star Movement government contract have clearly decreased, at least in the short term.
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The central bank has faced calls from some corners of the market for fresh stimulative measures to aid the anemic European economy, and the third round of TLTROs represent a continuation of its expansionary monetary course.
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But for now, expectations that Trump's administration will adopt expansionary fiscal policies have pushed developed market stocks higher and even emerging market shares seem to have settled over the last week having initially been hit hard.
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While interest rate-setters acknowledged that the economy was slowing more sharply than expected, they said there was no sign of a recession and stressed that policy would remain very expansionary even after a rate hike.
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BOGOTA, April 26 (Reuters) - Colombia's central bank held its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25 percent at its meeting on Friday, as inflationary pressure remains in check and the economy benefits from an expansionary monetary policy.
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In this environment, when assessing the state of the economy and the balance of risks, the board considered it convenient to maintain the reference interest rate at 4.25 percent, with which monetary policy remains slightly expansionary.
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The populist ruling coalition unveiled an expansionary budget in October which included a projected deficit of 2.4 percent of gross domestic product, up from 1.8 percent this year, to help fund welfare and tax reform measures.
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"In the U.S., any expansionary fiscal measures announced and agreed with Congress by the next president would probably only be implemented in the 2018 fiscal year that starts on 1 October 2017," Fels and Balls wrote.
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But government officials speaking at a forum in Ulaanbaatar on Wednesday said the country would now embark on a 900-day expansionary programme aimed at stimulating the private sector and creating as many as 2016,000 jobs.
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BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Italy should stop attacking the European Commission over its fiscal policy, the EU executive's president said on Monday, as Rome and Brussels quarrel over an expansionary budget proposed by Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.
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Third, on the basis of trade adjustment rules one can show, as an example, that the euro area, whose trade interests are represented by the European Union, is a prime candidate for expansionary demand management policies.
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ZURICH, June 13 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank made the following statement after its policy review on Thursday: The Swiss National Bank is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy, thereby stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity.
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Yaron noted that major central banks look to return to expansionary measures, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve which has had "a significant impact" on the shekel's exchange rate and which is also expected to influence inflation.
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This is particularly the case considering that the expansionary effect of the Trump tax cut and public spending increases will be occurring at the very time that the U.S. economy is at close to full employment.
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The latest broadside came in a Washington Post interview published Tuesday, when Trump once again attacked Powell, who goes by the nickname Jay, for raising rates -- moves that counter Trump's expansionary tax cuts and other moves.
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"Expansionary public policies such as fiscal stimulus and interest rate reduction should also assist the manufacturing sector in gaining some traction in the near term," said De Lima Reporting by Indradip Ghosh; Editing by Shri Navaratnam
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Further seeming to put an amicable solution of the German external surplus problem out of reach is the Trump administration's pursuit of a highly expansionary budget policy at this late stage in the U.S. economic cycle.
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In the more optimistic view, the challenges facing the corporate sector turn out to be temporary — perhaps a cooling of trade tensions helps — and demand from domestic consumers soon returns businesses to a more expansionary mode.
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YUAN PRESSURE With U.S. markets shut for a holiday on Monday, investors remained on the sidelines while looking to see what expansionary policies the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve could unveil this month.
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The subindex for new orders stayed in expansionary territory in August, but inched down from July, suggesting flat demand for manufactured products, said Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, a subsidiary of Caixin.
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Despite the fact that the Fed has started normalization, and has mapped out how they're going to reduce the balance sheet in very, very small doses over the next years, other central banks are still expansionary.
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Existing cash on the balance sheet (USD77 million at end-1H18) combined with access to a USD0003m RCF (to be increased in refinancing deal) should be sufficient to cover negative FCF driven by high expansionary capex.
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"Fiscal policy, as the minister said, is already expansionary in Germany and we estimate the impact of fiscal policy on GDP for this year to be between one quarter to one half percentage point," Weidmann said.
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At the moment, the expansionary credit stance in the U.S. is part of a strong fiscal-monetary stimulus driving the economic growth in the first half of this year at an annual rate of 33 percent.
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"Political pressures on the SARB to maintain expansionary monetary policies are likely to prevail, alongside heightened pressures for fiscal spending," said Moody's, which rates the country's debt just one level above subinvestment with a negative outlook.
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Separately, a spokeswoman for the economy ministry in Rome defended the government's expansionary budget and said Italy stuck by its position that the only way to cut the country's public debt was by boosting economic growth.
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The value of NATO military partnerships is increasingly in focus as Russia, Estonia's neighbor to the east, ups its military exercises and engages in expansionary activity — military and politically — in border countries like Ukraine and Georgia.
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The consolidation of a hawkish "New Hanseatic League" of fellow northern states and the formation of a populist, expansionary government in debt-laden Italy have only buttressed the Teutonic wall into which the French president has crashed.
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The budget for the fiscal year starting on July 1 envisages a 13 percent rise in nominal spending, but with annual urban consumer inflation running near 10 percent, the budget is not very expansionary in real terms.
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Draghi told the 27 heads of state and government that monetary policy took the most of the burden over the last 8 years and noted that fiscal policy this year and next year would be mildly expansionary.
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Why it matters: Many VCs are betting that marijuana legalization is on an expansionary path, but Attorney General Jeff Sessions yesterday reversed an Obama-era policy that had allowed states to legalize without much federal government interference.
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For the non-oil sector, growth is expected to be stimulated by expansionary fiscal policy as the budget for 2019 shows a significant increase in capital expenditure by 245 billion Saudi riyals ($65.3 billion), the report said.
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"The economy in the euro zone has cooled significantly over the past months and unless this is just a brief interlude the European Central Bank might be forced to stick to an expansionary monetary policy," she said.
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It can do so with a strong demand for trade surplus countries to actively contribute to the growth of the world economy with expansionary monetary and fiscal policies and more open markets for global commerce and finance.
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The 'wise men' reiterated that they viewed the European Central Bank's monetary policy as "too expansionary" in light of the economic development in the euro zone, adding that the resulting risks for financial stability were rising further.
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"The upswing of the German economy continues," they said, adding growth was helped by the robust labor market, a slightly positive outlook for the global economy, higher state spending and the ECB's "still extremely" expansionary monetary policy.
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The IMF's growth forecast for Japan improved slightly due to government spending, a delay in a consumption tax increase and expansionary monetary policy, but only to a weak 20173 percent in 2016 and 0.6 percent in 2017.
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He added that with the neutral rate of interest - a level that is neither expansionary nor contractionary - having fallen in the United States, the Fed would have less space to cut interest rates in any future crisis.
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Complicating Italy's task of refinancing the world's third-largest public debt, worth 1.73 trillion euros, the European Central Bank (ECB) will soon end the bond purchases it has been carrying out under its ultra-expansionary monetary policy.
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Draghi's acknowledgement after re-launching ECB asset purchases in September that monetary policy could not go much further to help the euro zone, has added to pressure on Germany in particular to adopt a more expansionary policy.
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"The PMIs may have lost a bit of momentum but they are still in many cases solidly above 1823 indicating that they are still in expansionary territory," said Jakob Christensen, head of EM research at Danske Bank.
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BERLIN (Reuters) - Euro zone states should implement structural reforms to sustain the economic upswing driven by the European Central Bank's expansionary policy which should be curtailed as it threatens financial stability, German economic experts said on Wednesday.
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Already, it has signaled — and reiterated several times — its intention to continue to reduce monetary stimulus after what has been an exceptionally protracted period of an unusually expansionary policy stance that relied on unconventional and experimental measures.
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The coalition intervened in Yemen's war in 2015 to try and unseat the Houthis, restore the internationally recognized Yemeni government in exile and thwart what Riyadh and Abu Dhabi see as Iran's expansionary ambitions in the region.
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In a speech on Thursday in Berlin Weidmann, a member of the European Central Bank's rate-setting Governing Council, also said the euro zone bank's expansionary monetary policy was still necessary as domestic price pressures remained low.
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Through the years of slow growth, many economists have complained that Congress's insistence on austerity, with Mr. Obama's acquiescence, has been a drag on growth, compelling the Federal Reserve to prolong its expansionary monetary policy to compensate.
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"In other words it opens the room for more expansionary monetary policy," he wrote in a research note, while adding that in the current situation the central bank was still likely to keep interest rates on hold.
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Italy's new government expects the economy to expand by only about 0.4% next year after eking out 0.1% growth this year, three sources close to the matter told Reuters, underscoring the need for an expansionary 2020 budget.
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This expansionary fiscal policy stance will almost certainly force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further to contain inflationary pressure, which is all too likely to lead to a further strengthening in an already strong dollar.
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The proposal comes after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe laid out plans for "bold" spending on infrastructure this fiscal year, raising concerns the public debt burden would worsen as the government shifts its focus to expansionary fiscal policy.
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Italy plans to raise the corporate income tax on businesses which need a licence from the government, a draft document seen by Reuters showed on Wednesday, as Rome looks for ways to finance its expansionary 2300 budget.
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"It is time for the European Central Bank to start phasing out its expansionary monetary policy in Europe," Clemens Fuest, president of the Ifo Institute, an influential research organization in Munich, said on Thursday in a statement.
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Looking ahead, the euro area expansion will continue to be supported by favourable financing conditions, the mildly expansionary euro area fiscal stance, further employment gains and rising wages, and the ongoing albeit somewhat slower growth in global activity.
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Looking ahead, the euro area expansion will continue to be supported by favourable financing conditions, the mildly expansionary euro area fiscal stance, further employment gains and rising wages, and the ongoing – albeit somewhat slower – growth in global activity.
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Although Italy has made revisions to its spending plans, Dombrovskis stressed that the composition of the spending still raised concerns, particularly the main expansionary measures — the citizens' income and rollback of pensions reforms (including lowering the retirement age).
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Italy clashed with Brussels last autumn over its expansionary budget plans and many economists see its huge and rising public debt, which stands at 132 percent of gross domestic product, as a simmering threat to EU monetary union.
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Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said on Friday that the ECB would need to adopt further expansionary measures if the euro zone economy does not pick up, adding that it would consider its options "in the coming weeks".
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On top of next year's budget, Abe's cabinet approved on Friday an extra budget for this fiscal year, with additional spending of 2.7 trillion yen and extra bond issuance of 1.2 trillion yen, underlining his expansionary fiscal stance.
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We maintain our 2016-2018 GDP growth forecast at 7503% (well above the 'A' median forecast of around 3%), given the methodological imperfections of the GDP series and the significantly more expansionary dynamics suggested by high-frequency indicators.
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Mario Draghi spoke at a gathering of euro zone finance ministers on Monday during which the Italian government's expansionary budgetary plans were criticized by the other countries of the bloc for being in breach of EU fiscal rules.
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Conte flew to Brussels to try to head off disciplinary measures over his government's expansionary draft budget, which originally targeted a headline deficit of 2.4 percent of gross domestic product - a level the Commission rejected as too high.
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BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Commission's decision to spare Spain and Portugal fines over their excessive budget deficits signals a tentative effort to promote more expansionary economic policy in response to Britain's destabilizing vote to leave the European Union.
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The coalition's first budget is due to be unveiled in full by the end of October, and an expansionary budget could increase investors' concerns over Italy's heavy debt burden and risk a speculative attack on its financial markets.
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For now, at least, the market has decided that Trump will run an inflationary and expansionary fiscal policy, a belief that's led to a rapid increase in future inflation expectations, and with it an appreciation of the dollar.
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BERLIN (Reuters) - Euro zone countries must each ensure their budgets are stable and economies competitive, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said ahead of a European Union summit on Wednesday, as Italy weighs expansionary budget plans that risk EU rejection.
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HONG KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong unveiled a less expansionary budget for fiscal year 2000/25 on Wednesday, though with relief measures for individuals and businesses at a time of economic uncertainty and trade tensions as growth slowed sharply.
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The dollar has soared since Trump was elected president last week, as investors eyed the prospect of U.S. interest rates rising faster than previously expected due to his plans for an expansionary fiscal policy that would stoke inflation.
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ROME (Reuters) - Italy's expansionary multi-year budget plan published late on Thursday may backfire on the populist government, according to several analysts who see a risk of rising borrowing costs, a bruising battle with Brussels and ratings downgrades.
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But the president has lately expressed frustration with the Fed's gradual interest rate increases, designed to slow down the economy and prevent inflation from taking off — standard macroeconomic steps that Trump insists are undercutting his expansionary fiscal moves.
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Italy's new government, made up of the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and the center-left Democratic Party, has promised an expansionary 2020 budget to try to revive chronically stagnant growth in the euro zone's third largest economy.
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"The rand seems to be escaping the contagion implications, suggesting the market is still differentiating between TRY and other high yield FX, given expansionary monetary policy in key developed markets," traders at ETM Analytics said in a note.
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However, as the minutes showed, the central bank is confident that "the recovery has now moved into an expansionary phase" with growth picking up and inflation forecasts indicating a return to pre-crisis levels in the short-term.
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The prime minister has frequently denounced a lack of European solidarity amid the migrant crisis as Italy seeks EU approval for an expansionary budget that includes some 3.9 billion euros ($4.25 billion) in spending on migrants next year.
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SEOUL, Sept 24 (Reuters) - The United States' latest tariff on Chinese imports could weigh havily on South Korea's growth, though its expansionary fiscal and monetary policy would provide some buffer for the economy, Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday.
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Almost all members of the Federal Open Market Committee "indicated that the upside risks to their forecasts for economic growth had increased as a result of prospects for more expansionary fiscal policies in coming years," the minutes said.
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For every supporter who believes they are, indeed, the only game in town, there's a critic who is unshakably convinced that expansionary monetary policy has put us on the road to another round of asset bubbles and, perhaps, inflation.
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"Higher U.S. rates, potential U.S.-China trade disruption, and less expansionary Singapore fiscal policy are likely to weigh on growth prospect in 2017 relative to 2016," it said, adding it expected the MAS to re-center the NEER downward.
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In the examples of expansionary austerity used so misleadingly to justify austerity in the depressed economies of the rich world, big declines in interest rates were one of the key mechanisms through which budget cuts led to output growth.
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The attack sent ripples of apprehension through the euro zone amid media stories that the populist coalition wanted to get its hands on the Bank's gold reserves, the third-largest of any country, to fund its expansionary fiscal policies.
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ROME (Reuters) - The Italian cabinet on Monday signed off on an expansionary 2019 budget, boosting welfare spending, cutting the retirement age and hiking the deficit to set up a showdown with authorities in Brussels over compliance with EU rules.
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The fund said it had been prepared to take risk in recent quarters given improved global growth, but that there were now longer-term reasons to be cautious as central banks around the world end their expansionary monetary policies.
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Last week, ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said the central bank would need to adopt further expansionary measures if the euro zone economy does not pick up, and that it would consider its options "in the coming weeks".
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To make matters worse for emerging economies, President-elect Trump is proposing such an expansionary budget policy at the very time that the U.S. economy is close to full employment and wage inflation appears to be on the rise.
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The euro remained broadly on the back foot, holding around $1.1573 against the dollar after the Italian cabinet's sign-off on an expansionary 2019 budget that sets up a showdown with the European Union over compliance with its rules.
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She did not explain the logic, which is at odds with the reasoning of economists and the ECB officials who say the expansionary monetary policy could end because the risks of deflation to the euro zone economy have retreated.
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"The task now for the ECB lies more along the lines of promoting the effectiveness of these new expansionary policies and assertion that the Bank can do more if needed," said Rodrigo Catril, FX strategist at National Australia Bank.
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"Central bankers should be mindful of a potential 'economic lower bound', at which the detrimental effects of low rates on the banking sector outweigh their benefits, and further rate cuts risk reversing the expansionary monetary policy stance," Coeure said.
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BERLIN, Sept 28 (Reuters) - German consumer prices rose less than expected in September and inflation remained below the European Central Bank's target, data showed on Thursday, supporting arguments that the central bank should only gradually unwind its expansionary policy.
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The row, triggered by the expansionary policies of Rome's new euroskeptic government, has hammered the value of Italian bonds, and also the share price of Italian banks that hold large quantities of those bonds, unnerving Italy's euro zone partners.
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ROME (Reuters) - The European Central Bank's monetary policy will remain expansionary to sustain demand, while growth- friendly fiscal policies in the eurozone could help speed a return to price stability, ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said on Thursday.
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BERLIN (Reuters) - Euro zone countries have failed to use the low interest rate environment created by the European Central Bank's expansionary policy to reform their economies and consolidate their budgets, German Deputy Finance Minister Michael Meister said on Thursday.
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Investors betting Italy can avoid a snap election are concerned that it would be won by Matteo Salvini's hard-right League party, which would put the country on a collision course with the European Union over expansionary government spending.
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Nguyen, however, called the market expectations of an early end to an expansionary BOJ policy "premature" because the bank can defend its 10-year yield target without buying so many bonds, and because inflation pressures in Japan remain low.
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ROME (Reuters) - Italy's new government expects the economy to expand by only about 20.7% next year after eking out 22020% growth this year, three sources close to the matter told Reuters, underscoring the need for an expansionary 20.1 budget.
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Rome's refusal to accept the EU's call to rein in its expansionary budget plans has pushed Italy's government bond yield spread over Germany — effectively the risk premium attached to Italian risk — above 300 basis points, double end-2017 levels.
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"We have identified players that are not necessarily connected to real trading activity ... and we have also intervened in this regard," she said, adding that lingering expansionary monetary policies taken by some countries are also propping up the shekel.
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More generally, Washington's intent to move from free to reciprocal trade regimes is bound to lead to rising price tensions in an economy driven by hugely expansionary monetary and fiscal policies well above its potential and non inflationary growth.
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ROME (Reuters) - The Italian Cabinet on Monday signed off on an expansionary 2019 budget, boosting welfare spending, cutting the retirement age and hiking the deficit to set up a showdown with authorities in Brussels over compliance with EU rules.
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"An expansionary fiscal budget in a situation with full capacity utilization is an argument for Norges Bank to hike policy rates in June and increases the risk for another hike in September," DNB said in a note to clients.
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"The long-term risks of an expansionary monetary policy in times of a robust economy, which Powell mentioned briefly and that put pressure on the dollar only a few days ago, were now pushed aside by the market," Commerzbank said.
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In the bank's latest statement, the SNB said it would remain active in the foreign exchange market, and that its current expansionary monetary policy is expected to help prop up economic activity and help keep an eye on the Swiss franc.
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Italy, which has Europe's second-largest sovereign debt burden after Greece, has angered the European Union with an expansionary 2019 budget and Salvini wants to make major tax cuts next year, setting up the prospect of another clash with Brussels.
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That is a great pity because changes of trade regimes with China, Japan and the German-run European Union would have allowed the U.S. to retain most of the demand, output and employment benefits of its expansionary economic policy mix.
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" It also suggests hosting a filming of "Islam: What the West Needs to Know" which "reveals the violent, expansionary ideology of the so called 'religion of peace' that seeks the destruction or subjugation of other faiths, cultures, and systems of government.
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"The idea that we could have a Corbyn government, with nationalisation policies that could mean more borrowing, a more expansionary and populist fiscal stance, would be negative for the budget deficit and therefore for the pound," said Rabobank strategist Jane Foley.
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The government of the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and the right-wing League last month forecast growth of 1.0 percent for this year, while presenting an expansionary 2019 budget which increases welfare pay-outs and lowers the retirement age.
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Germany has run up budget surpluses in recent years under Schaeuble's watch, but market participants believe a more expansionary policy may follow last month's elections, particularly if the pro-business FDP party are part of a new government as expected.
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BRUSSELS, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund clashed on Thursday with the European Commission, saying it advocated a neutral fiscal stance for the euro zone as a whole rather than an expansionary one as suggested by the EU executive arm.
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WASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank's expansionary monetary policy is reaching its limits and the euro zone should prepare an exit strategy to avoid negative side effects, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the chairman of euro zone finance ministers, said on Thursday.
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Emerging market assets had sold off in the wake of Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, as his expansionary fiscal policies are expected to fuel inflation and prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to tighten more aggressively than previously thought.
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ROME (Reuters) - The Bank of Italy on Friday urged the European Central Bank to be cautious in making euro zone monetary policy less expansionary, warning of the risks of a sudden end to asset buying or sharp rises in interest rates.
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Italy is considering reducing the amount of loan losses that banks can deduct from their taxable income next year, two sources close to the matter told Reuters on Monday, as it looks for ways to finance an expansionary 2020 budget.
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"Thus the second part of the answer to raising rates of return is clear: continued expansionary policies until excess slack in the economy has been reduced and inflation dynamics are sustainably consistent again with price stability," Draghi told a conference.
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SEOUL, Jan 11 (Reuters) - South Korea's finance minister-nominee Yoo Il-ho said on Monday he will respond to possible economic risks in the first quarter of this year in an aggressive manner via a flexible and expansionary policy stance.
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Tria said Italy remained convinced the "moderately expansionary" budget was needed to counter a slowdown in the Italian and European economies but added that Rome would "continue dialogue with the Commission to seek a shared solution in our mutual interests".
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"A 'liftoff,' which occurs when the net policy rate becomes positive, can be expansionary if it triggers the economy to move to a better state," the paper said, arguing that abandoning negative rates could have a positive effect on price growth.
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After all, Chair Janet Yellen's Federal Reserve is now faced with the prospect of an expansionary U.S. budget policy at the very time that the U.S. economy is close to full employment and U.S. wage inflation is beginning to gather momentum.
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Defying Brussels and Berlin, Rome has recently approved an expansionary budget for this year, where the stimulus measures amount to 30 billion euros, ranging from the abolition of a controversial tax on primary residences to investment incentives and strengthened security provisions.
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MILAN (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will need to adopt further expansionary measures if the euro zone economy does not pick up, and it will consider its options "in the coming weeks," governing council member Ignazio Visco said on Friday.
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The dollar hit a 14-year high against other major currencies on bets that Trump would adopt expansionary fiscal policies that would lead to higher interest rates, and gold, a traditional safe haven, fell to its lowest level in a decade.
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HONG KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong rolled out tax cuts, relief measures and capital spending in an expansionary budget on Wednesday, after the city racked up a hefty budget surplus, targeting investments in high-technology industries to help raise its competitiveness.
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Although Trump's promises to cut taxes and boost spending have pushed up bond yields on the expectation of higher inflation, some poll participants wanted to see if he would actually implement these expansionary policies before making big changes to their portfolios.
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"The policy mix in the United States will shift from expansionary to contractionary during the forecast horizon, with monetary, fiscal, and trade policies all expected to become a drag on activity within the next couple of years," the authors write.
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The broad-based rally followed earlier gains in Asia, where South Korean stocks climbed 21315 percent and the won firmed 211 percent on hopes that the expansionary fiscal policies of President Moon Jae-In's new government would boost the economy.
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In a radio interview with RTL 102.5, Salvini insisted the expansionary budget, which raises the deficit next year to 2.4 percent of gross domestic product from a targeted 1.8 percent this year, was the only way to lower the public debt.
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Italy, which has Europe's second-largest sovereign debt burden after Greece, has already angered the European Union with an expansionary 2019 budget and Salvini wants to make major tax cuts next year, setting up the prospect of another EU clash.
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As anti-establishment and anti-EU parties gain support in polls, Renzi has prepared an expansionary budget for next year that may breach EU fiscal rules, even if they have been relaxed in recent years mostly to accommodate Italy's spending needs.
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European Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said Italy's draft budget for 2019 was not in line with European Union guidelines, according to German magazine Der Spiegel, reviving concerns about a clash between the EU and Rome over the Italian government's expansionary fiscal plans.
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Meanwhile, the E.U. is concerned about how to handle Italy's budget crisis, worrying that the bloc's rejection of the country's expansionary draft budget will further fuel a euroskeptic wave across the Continent before elections for a new European Parliament in May.
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LAUSANNE, Switzerland, Aug 28 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank has to keep monetary policy expansionary to counter demand for the safe-haven Swiss franc at a time of heightened global uncertainty, SNB governing board member Andrea Maechler said on Wednesday.
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True, advocates of austerity tried to claim otherwise; for a while, a lot of policymakers bought into the doctrine of "expansionary austerity," in which slashing government spending in a depressed economy would somehow lead to a big rise in private spending.
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Ireland started reversing years of savage spending cuts and tax hikes in 2014, about the time its economy began to rebound sharply from a deep financial crisis, but Paschal Donohoe has far fewer resources this year than in those expansionary budgets.
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Looking ahead, the euro area expansion will continue to be supported by favourable financing conditions, further employment gains in conjunction with rising wages, the mildly expansionary euro area fiscal stance and the ongoing albeit somewhat slower growth in global activity.
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We do want to know whether the Trump trade war is going to be directly expansionary or contractionary – that is, whether it would add or subtract jobs holding monetary policy constant, even though we know monetary policy won't be constant.
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The private-sector Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) due on Monday - which analysts say focuses more on smaller export-driven firms - is also expected to show a similar contraction at 45.7, compared with an expansionary 51.1 in January.
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In that case, it's far more valuable to a company to be an employee working in so-called expansionary positions, like marketing, than in production jobs, like working a factory line — because there's less production to be done and more salesmanship.
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"Since the CB maintains the most expansionary monetary stance in the whole EM universe (the most negative real rate) and will only review policy after its next Inflation Report in March, this understandably makes the FX market very nervous," he said.
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"The big picture is that the economy is gradually gaining a firmer footing, and a modest recovery in the export sector and expansionary fiscal policy should help support economic activity in the coming quarters," said Krystal Tan, economist at ANZ Research.
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Looking ahead, the euro area expansion will continue to be supported by favorable financing conditions, further employment gains in conjunction with rising wages, the mildly expansionary euro area fiscal stance and the ongoing – albeit somewhat slower – growth in global activity.
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Led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the Liberal Democrats have pursued an expansionary economic policy, spending on public works and other projects and encouraging the central bank to keep borrowing costs low by buying up vast quantities of government debt.
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"Uncertainty about global trade and economic growth dampened returns early on, but markets rallied toward the end of the period, driven partly by the prospect of more expansionary monetary policy in developed markets," the fund's deputy CEO, Trond Grande, said in a statement.
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"In light of the still high debt levels in the EU, we see no possibility for an expansionary fiscal policy," he said, adding that there was also no need for such a step because of the continued economic recovery in the euro zone.
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Some investors had expected hints that policy might be coming to an end and that the BOJ's yield target for Japanese government bonds might be raised, after a recent speech by Kuroda that referred to the negative effects of ultra-expansionary monetary policy.
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"Populist economic policy is normally expansionary, irrespective of the economic situation, so it's short-termist, goes against globalization…it rejects international organizations like the WTO or the European Union, it exaggerates the negative economic impact of immigration and generally blames foreigners," Fuest said.
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Borghi's comments come a day after Italy's coalition government — made up of the right-wing Lega party and anti-establishment Five Star Movement — submitted its 2019 draft budget proposals to the European Commission which now has to accept or reject the expansionary budget.
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Central banks in the U.S., U.K., euro zone, Japan and elsewhere introduced a mixture of low interest rates and expansionary monetary stimulus programs, known as "quantitative easing" (QE) — essentially large-scale asset purchases — in a bid to boost spending in the economy.
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But for now, expectations that Trump's administration will adopt expansionary fiscal policies have sent U.S. stocks to a record high, while a belief that such policies would fuel inflation and lead to higher interest rates pushed up bond yields and strengthened the dollar.
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"We are seeing early signs of positive economic momentum, with the United States in expansionary mode, driven by the ongoing strength of the consumer and the tailwind of a new incoming administration promising structural reforms," Chief Executive Andrew Liveris said in a statement.
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"Uncertainty about global trade and economic growth dampened returns early on, but markets rallied towards the end of the period, driven partly by the prospect of more expansionary monetary policy in developed markets," the fund's deputy CEO, Trond Grande, said in a statement.
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He noted comments this week from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that tamped down expectations of aggressive rate hikes this year, and as well as the expansionary, low or negative interest rate monetary policies being pursued in in Japan and Europe.
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Some economists have warned that the Fed may need to raise rates faster to prevent inflation from accelerating, now that unemployment is at 4.1 percent and expected to fall further as consumer and business spending, along with expansionary fiscal policy, fuel economic growth.
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"The government debt ratio is not expected to decline in the coming years, as the weak macroeconomic outlook and the government's current fiscal plans, though less expansionary than its initial plans for 2019, will entail a deterioration of the primary surplus," it said.
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The Commission says the budget will push up Italy's public debt which already amounts to 131 percent of GDP, proportionately the highest in the euro zone after Greece's, rejecting Rome's argument that the expansionary package can lower debt by boosting economic growth.
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Subindices for new orders and production both returned to expansionary territory, while the gauge for new export orders rose slightly even though it was still in contractionary territory, wrote Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, a subsidiary of Caixin.
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The European Commission took the first step last Wednesday toward disciplining Italy over its expansionary 2019 budget after Rome refused to change it, raising the stakes in a dispute that has alarmed the whole euro zone and could eventually lead to fines.
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"We expect the Peruvian central bank to keep rates on hold today and into 2020, as policymakers are likely to reiterate their plan to maintain the current expansionary policy stance for a prolonged period of time," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note.
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"We believe industrials will continue to outperform as the expansionary environment grows with the trend for fiscal infrastructure investment and relative accommodative global monetary policy remains intact," Oppenheimer's chief investment strategist, John Stoltzfus, wrote in a note to clients on Dec. 19.
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Ms Rousseff's ruling Workers' party, emboldened by the proceeds of the commodities boom, spent much of its past 13 years in power pursuing populist and expansionary fiscal policies, but ignoring what economists say are the wider structural reforms needed for sustainable growth.
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Tria publicly insists his expansionary fiscal plan will boost growth - which was flat in the third quarter - and cause a reduction of Italy's huge debt, which stands above 130 percent of GDP, the highest ratio in the EU after bailed-out Greece.
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"The current proactive fiscal policy, which is different from the traditional expansionary policy, is not direct government effort to expand demand, but indirect effort through stimulating market vitality, optimizing resource allocation and increasing quality supply," Liu wrote in the official Economic Information Daily.
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"While I would not deny that there is scope for some more public investment in infrastructure or education, it is worth noting that fiscal policy in Germany is already in expansionary mode due to the cost of accommodating the refugees," Weidmann said.
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Fed officials would face a very difficult decision: They could follow an expansionary monetary policy that would set the economy on a better course in the short run, but that could anger Congress, which could harm its effectiveness in the long run.
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This is a danger, though these actions would hurt China as well, since they own trillions in U.S. bonds that would lose value, even while the Fed could offset at least some (and perhaps much) of the negative impact with expansionary monetary policy.
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The economy, which isn't strong, is at least not in recession, he said, and the Fed's monetary policy is expansionary, while fiscal policy is looser than it was during Mr. Obama's first term, which was bedeviled by the "fiscal cliff" budget impasse.
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Some investors had expected hints that policy might be coming to an end and the BOJ might raise its yield target for Japanese government bonds, after a recent speech by Kuroda that referred to the negative effects of ultra-expansionary monetary policy.
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Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe has just 350 million euros in spare resources - far less than the expansionary budgets of the last two years - but the Irish Times said it understood the final package would be between 900 million and 1 billion euros.
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By following an expansionary budget policy at this late stage of the cycle, the administration is in effect forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster pace than it would otherwise have needed to do to stave off inflation.
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The Italian government has unveiled the core of its expansionary multi-year budget plan, raising the target for the fiscal deficit to 2.4 percent of gross domestic product next year, three times the 0.8 percent goal set by the previous center-left administration.
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The minutes showed that Fed officials see the run up in the stock market, the dollar, and interest rates since the presidential election as linked "to expectations for more expansionary fiscal policies in coming years or to possible reductions in corporate tax rates."
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The European Commission took the first step on Wednesday toward disciplining Italy over its expansionary 2019 budget after Rome refused to modify it, raising the stakes in a dispute that has alarmed the whole euro zone and could eventually lead to fines.
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That expectation is based on our view that the federal funds rate remains somewhat below its neutral level--that is, the level of the federal funds rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and keeps the economy operating on an even keel.
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ROME, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Italy's anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and Democratic Party (PD) unveiled a shared policy programme on Tuesday to serve as the basis of a new coalition government, putting an expansionary 2020 budget at the top of their agenda.
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Conte has used the back-to-back debates in the two houses of parliament to lay out a wide-ranging policy program, promising expansionary measures to boost the stagnant economy and pledging to bring in tax cuts for households, rather than companies.
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McVey&aposs outlook comes after an exceedingly profitable year for investors in almost every asset class and in the 11th year of an expansionary cycle — a perfect time for any investor to question how much upside is left to take risks with.
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BENGALURU (Reuters) - Rising inflation is expected to keep the Reserve Bank of India from cutting rates again until late this year, while an expansionary federal budget due next month attempts to put a floor under rapidly-slowing growth, a Reuters poll found.
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NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling party is in favor of an expansionary economic policy and does not consider the government's plan to keep the fiscal deficit to 3.3 percent of GDP as "sacrosanct", a party spokesman told Reuters.
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By the same token, if the Trump administration was serious about helping to redress Germany's large bilateral trade surplus with the United States, it would not now be proposing at home a highly expansionary budget policy at a time of full employment.
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The Bank of Israel cited inflation that is stabilizing at the lower end of its 1 to 3 percent target range, with a rise in wages and the expansionary fiscal policy expected to "support the continued entrenchment of inflation within the target".
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"The Trump win gives the U.S. dollar a late cycle positive shock, driven by expectations of somewhat expansionary and somewhat inflationary fiscal policy," Steven Englander, global head of G10 foreign-exchange strategy at Citi, said in a note dated Monday, well before the Fed statement.
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"The situation in Europe remains more difficult and that's exactly the reason why monetary policy in Europe remains expansionary and that also means that we have to continue maintaining negative interest rates in Switzerland," Thomas Jordan, chairman of the Swiss National Bank, told CNBC Thursday.
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I was the one who said Obamacare-- all of these regulations were going to create a very, very poor recovery, and by the way – ANDREW ROSS SORKIN: You would have wanted more expansionary plan, in fact, I think if we go back in time.
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"In the past four quarters, it's only 2 to 3 percent that are making expansionary investments," said Gan Jie, the director of the Center on Finance and Economic Growth at the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in Beijing, who oversees the quarterly survey.
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BRUSSELS/ROME (Reuters) - The European Commission took the first step on Wednesday toward disciplining Italy over its expansionary 2019 budget after Rome refused to change it, raising the stakes in a dispute that has alarmed the whole euro zone and could eventually lead to fines.
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"(In the context of Europe), if Renzi wins then he may well become more confrontational and stretch EU deficit laws even further while pursuing a more expansionary monetary policy which could be interesting but if he loses … Well, it's anyone's guess," Brunner concluded. Very.
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"Expansionary fiscal policies adopted when the economy is weak may not only stimulate output but also reduce debt-to-GDP ratios," University of California, Berkeley, professors Alan Auerbach and Yuriy Gorodnichenko said in a paper presented at the Kansas City Federal Reserve's annual economic symposium.
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New orders climbed to their highest level in four months, while the index for new export orders returned to expansionary territory, "showing that both domestic and external demand rebounded moderately," wrote Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, a subsidiary of Caixin.
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"There is an opportunity (and a need) for the UK to counter the post-referendum economic slowdown with a more expansionary fiscal stance, and were that to happen, it would be positive for sterling," wrote Societe Generale currency strategists in a research note to clients.
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JERUSALEM, July 31 (Reuters) - Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron said on Wednesday there will likely be no interest rate increases for an extended period of time due to a surprise decline in the inflation rate and expansionary policies of major global central banks.
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While global stocks and the U.S. dollar rose in the weeks after Trump's election win in November, on bets fiscally expansionary policies will set U.S. growth on a higher gear, lately markets have been spooked by the new administration's protectionism and tough stance on immigration.
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However, the single currency on Friday rose 0.2% versus the dollar to $1.1271, after earlier slipping following comments from ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco saying the bank will need to adopt further expansionary measures if the euro zone economy does not pick up.
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The euro trimmed earlier gains after European Central Bank Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said on Friday the ECB will need to adopt further expansionary measures if the euro zone economy does not pick up and will consider its options "in the coming weeks".
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LUXEMBOURG (Reuters) - The head of the euro zone bailout fund Klaus Regling said on Tuesday he was not worried about Italy losing market access amid a dispute with the European Commission on Rome's expansionary 2019 budget, which the EU executive says breaks EU fiscal rules.
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The dollar edged up on Tuesday after falling to a 20.76-month low against a basket of major currencies as investors gained hope U.S. President Donald Trump could push through his expansionary fiscal agenda but remained wary of the short-term U.S. economic outlook.
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Even if tariffs were expansionary, that would just make the Fed raise rates faster, which would in turn crowd out jobs in other industries: construction would be hurt by rising rates, the dollar would get stronger making U.S. manufacturing less competitive, and so on.
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ROME, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Italy is considering reducing the amount of loan losses that banks can deduct from their taxable income next year, two sources close to the matter told Reuters on Monday, as it looks for ways to finance an expansionary 2020 budget.
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The legislative branch, an independent and co-equal branch of government that America's founders deliberately established as a check on an expansionary executive, too often took the form of a rubber-stamp or a disinterested do-nothing body when it came to policy overseas.
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GKN's FCF margin, at 7503% for the LTM to June 2016, is expected to remain between 1% and 2% over the coming years, largely as a result of expansionary capital expenditure and working capital outflows, slightly below our positive rating trigger of a minimum 2%.
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The Chinese did the same thing, but much more elegantly: Beijing did not send its key trade negotiator, leaving the EU and the IMF to gang up on the U.S. And then there is a hugely expansionary fiscal policy the Fed has to contend with.
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While a few economies, notably the United States, have stabilized very late in one of the longest expansionary periods on record, a vigorous snapback to above-trend performance is not likely, according to predictions from hundreds of forecasters polled by Reuters in recent weeks.
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While a few economies, notably the United States, have stabilised very late in one of the longest expansionary periods on record, a vigorous snapback to above-trend performance is not likely, according to predictions from hundreds of forecasters polled by Reuters in recent weeks.
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"Fiscal policy, as the minister said, is already expansionary in Germany and we estimate the impact of fiscal policy on GDP for this year to be between one quarter to one half percentage point," Weidmann said at a joint news conference with Finance Minister Olaf Scholz.
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Now the Bank of Italy has weighed in on the debate, saying it hopes the government can reach a deal with the EU, warning that rising borrowing costs risk cancelling out the expansionary impact of the budget, and noting that the government's GDP targets look ambitious.
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Yellen also did make an indirect reference to the current political situation in Washington, in which President Donald Trump has called for expansionary fiscal policy — tax cuts, a rollback of regulations and greater infrastructure spending — to jump start the slowest economic recovery since the Great Depression.
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Last year Italy's populist coalition sparked a rise in government-bond yields when it tore up undertakings made by its predecessor and introduced a modestly expansionary budget with a target deficit of just over 2% of GDP, above what it is permitted under the EU's fiscal rules.
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It would probably focus heavily on digitisation, improving education and infrastructure, subjects on which the parties broadly agree, and would be expansionary, cutting taxes (an FDP priority, and one that will help boost the wider European economy) and investing in things like renewable energy (a Green one).
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"The still solid PMI suggests to us that there is no urgent need to move towards a more expansionary fiscal or monetary policy, and that the focus should remain on a gradual and orderly deleveraging to reduce financial risks," the analysts wrote in a note to clients.
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar edged up on Tuesday after falling to a 20.7-month low against a basket of major currencies as investors gained hope U.S. President Donald Trump could push through his expansionary fiscal agenda but remained wary of the short-term U.S. economic outlook.
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"The current, expansionary monetary policy is justified by the subdued outlook for inflation and subdued growth - although of course there are side effects that increase with time, and even if you can argue about individual instruments," Bundesbank board member Andreas Dombret said at an event in Berlin .
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As Italy's anti-establishment government attempts to pass an expansionary budget in the face of opposition from the European Union, investors are ramping up their use of a product that is increasingly being used to take bets that more losses are in store for the country's bonds.
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"It's worth noting though that since the last Fed meeting we have seen the government approve a very expansionary budget, we saw a higher-than-expected wage component of January's employment report and we saw a higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index for January," Esiner said.
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What was not adequately appreciated by Robinson and her contemporaries was that a country's abandonment of the gold standard did more than affect the value of its currency: It also freed the country to use more expansionary monetary policies, which increased demand and incomes at home.
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Trump may well have Republican control of both houses of the U.S. Congress, but many in his own party have made their distaste for him quite clear, and running a protectionist trade policy and an expansionary fiscal policy that leads to mounting deficits may prove very challenging.
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Italy, the eurozone's third-largest economy, appears to be on a collision course with Europe over the presentation of an expansionary budget by October at the same time that its populist coalition government has made excessive tax cut and spending increase promises to the electorate. Meanwhile.
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Argentina's positive tide turned in April, when skittish investors, fearful of the global repercussions of a potential U.S.-China trade war combined with expansionary fiscal policy in the United States likely raising U.S. inflation and interest rates, started to pull their money out of emerging markets.
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LUXEMBOURG, Nov 27 (Reuters) - The head of the euro zone bailout fund Klaus Regling said on Tuesday he was not worried about Italy losing market access amid a dispute with the European Commission on Rome's expansionary 2019 budget, which the EU executive says breaks EU fiscal rules.
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At the same time, the services and construction sectors show ongoing resilience and the euro area expansion is also supported by favourable financing conditions, further employment gains and rising wages, the mildly expansionary euro area fiscal stance and the ongoing albeit somewhat slower growth in global activity.
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At the same time, the services and construction sectors show ongoing resilience and the euro area expansion is also supported by favourable financing conditions, further employment gains and rising wages, the mildly expansionary euro area fiscal stance and the ongoing – albeit somewhat slower – growth in global activity.
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"While the newly elected government recently reaffirmed that it does not intend to leave the monetary union, its program, which proposes in particular expansionary fiscal policy measures implying a deterioration in the country's budget, is creating major uncertainty," the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) said.
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However, it remains to be seen how far the anti-austerity government will actually slash its current 21.5% target, because some in the 22019-Star Movement, one of the two ruling coalition parties, want the savings that are emerging to be quickly spent on new expansionary measures.
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"Although I would by no means rule out the possibility that the ECB may once again conjure up an expansionary surprise, in the medium term, it may find it difficult to overcompensate for the Fed's significant scope for interest rate cuts," Commerzbank strategists said ii a note.
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The choice for that post will signal whether the new commission will push for more public spending and focus less on balancing budgets, which some see as necessary given stalling growth in Germany, the largest EU economy, which has historically been hostile to expansionary fiscal policies.
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The current fiscal stance remains expansionary with the fiscal stimulus estimated at 0.5% of mainland GDP in 2017 and the structural non-oil deficit projected at 7.7%, or 2.9% of the balance of the sovereign wealth fund, which is valued at 284% of mainland GDP in September 2017.
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" For example, though the platform may offer personal loans in the future, Teo said it currently only lends to SMEs because "we believe that we are strategically better suited to serving small businesses and, in terms of our company's values, we think that serving SMEs is an expansionary effort.
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Letter From Washington The United States is still fighting a war in Afghanistan and has troops in Iraq, the Iranian nuclear deal remains controversial, the Islamic State is weakened but continues to be threatening, North Korea is launching missiles, Russia flouts international norms, and China has expansionary designs.
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These strengths are balanced by high fiscal and external deficits stemming from a structural terms-of-trade shock and expansionary policy response, involving steady erosion of buffers, and structural weaknesses in terms of low per-capita income and weak indicators of governance and the business climate relative to peers.
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Whether you agree with the German distaste for cheap money or not, the truth is that the expansionary monetary policy has been the only support to American economy ever since the advent of the acute phase of the financial crisis in late 2008 (don't ask who caused the crisis).
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The Italian bond market was further supported when 0.7983-Star and the PD unveiled a shared policy programme on Tuesday to serve as the basis of a new coalition, putting an expansionary 2020 budget at the top of their agenda, but promising that it would not endanger public finances.
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The leaders of the two parties in Italy's populist coalition, Luigi Di Maio of the M5S and the League's Matteo Salvini (pictured sitting either side of the prime minister, Giuseppe Conte), pooh-pooh such fears, arguing that their expansionary budget will boost growth and thus the size of the economy.
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That does not mean, however, that there is no room for an expansionary fiscal policy that would lead to balanced growth, allow the Fed to normalize interest rate policy and provide relief to the unskilled and under-skilled who are rapidly being left behind in an increasingly knowledge-based economy.
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"While the Fed signaled that it would likely respond to expansionary fiscal policies with a faster pace of rate hikes, the Fed believes it is too early to embed this into its baseline," Michael Gapen, chief United States economist at Barclays, wrote on Wednesday following the release of the minutes.
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Though McConnell describes the additional costs as prohibitive, in an era in which both the Trump administration and Senate Republicans have embraced $1 trillion annual deficits during an expansionary business cycle, securing elections in our country for about than 0.2 percent of that amount renders any such fiscal argument brazenly disingenuous.
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"Rapidly growing state-directed investment was financed by a highly expansionary fiscal deficit, 4.4 percent of GDP in the most recent four quarters' data and the largest deficit, relative to the size of China's economy, since comparable data began in 1995," PNC senior international economist Bill Adams wrote in a note.
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This expectation is consistent with the view that the neutral nominal federal funds rate, defined as the value of the federal funds rate that would be neither expansionary nor contractionary if the economy was operating near potential, is currently low by historical standards and is likely to rise only gradually over time.
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Or to put it differently: small oil price declines may be expansionary through usual channels, but really big declines set in motion a process of forced deleveraging among producers that can be a significant drag on the world economy, especially with the whole advanced world still in or near a liquidity trap.
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Fund managers suspect a lot of the short positions were placed after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November, having campaigned on expansionary fiscal policies, and as the Federal Reserve hinted it would raise interest rates at least three times in 2017, all of which should boost the U.S. dollar.
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The prime minister has frequently denounced a lack of European solidarity amid the migrant crisis as Italy seeks EU approval for an expansionary budget that includes some 3.9 billion euros ($4.25 billion) in spending on migrants next year, and as he campaigns for a referendum on which he has staked his future.
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Fourth, as I have stressed in my writings on secular stagnation and in a recent conversation with David Wessel, there is good reason to believe that a given level of rates is much less expansionary than it used to be given the structural forces operating to raise saving propensities and reduce investment propensities.
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"Given that we currently need less than 100,000 jobs per month to break even...this level of jobs growth is firmly in expansionary territory and, if sustained, will continue to nudge the unemployment rate down," wrote Heidi Shierholz, senior economist and policy director at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank.
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That was despite earlier cutting its U.S. growth projection to 20203 percent from 2.3 percent for 2017 and to 2.1 percent from 20.1 percent for 26.7, citing both weak growth in the first quarter of this year as well as the assumption that fiscal policy will be less expansionary than previously expected.
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While the rate hike itself was not a surprise to anyone who watches the Federal Reserve closely, markets were paying close attention to whether the Federal Reserve would adjust its forecasts for economic growth, unemployment, and inflation to take into account the likelihood of highly expansionary fiscal policy from a Trump administration.
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But he warned about the risk associated with keeping the ECB's ultra-low rates and money-printing program going for too long and defended Germany's conservative fiscal policy against accusations that it was slowing down the European economy "An expansionary monetary policy stance is justified for now," Weidmann said at an event in Frankfurt.
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Low and even negative interest rates resulting from the sluggish global economy and from the expansionary monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and other central banks have been enabling big corporations to borrow money cheaply, even when those companies' earnings have declined, and even when they have had no immediate productive use for the funds.
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" The big question for the economy heading into 2020 is how this all comes together, Mr. Irwin writes: • "In the more optimistic view, the challenges facing the corporate sector turn out to be temporary — perhaps a cooling of trade tensions helps — and demand from domestic consumers soon returns businesses to a more expansionary mode.
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In a case of slower top-line growth, we believe the company has the flexibility to hold back expansionary capex to maintain a more neutral FCF profile Emerging-Market Risks: A large portion of the group's revenue (48% in FY7503) is generated in South Africa (BB+/Stable), which has been subject to weak GDP growth.
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Moore in 2015 described the Fed's "zero-interest-rate policy ... just as an addict craves crack cocaine" -- a position he has since reversed as Trump has turned on the Fed's efforts to dampen any potential inflationary pressure and keep the economy in check as it absorbs the Republican tax cut and other expansionary measures.
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But bellwether American businesses from Apple to General Motors have blamed the Trump administration's policies on trade for falling sales and lost jobs, and the Institute for Supply Management's most recent manufacturing index, while still expansionary at 54.1 (figures of 50 and higher indicate expansion), fell by 5.2 points, the largest month-to-month drop since the financial crisis.
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"Most participants attributed the substantial changes in financial market conditions over the intermeeting period — including the increase in longer-term interest rates, the strengthening of the dollar, the rise in equity prices, and the narrowing of credit spreads — to expectations for more expansionary fiscal policies in coming years or to possible reductions in corporate tax rates," the minutes said.
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The global economy shows signs of being at a relatively late stage in the cycle and policymakers have made a series of choices that have complicated the outlook still further: * In the United States, the combination of an expansionary fiscal policy (tax cuts) with a restrictive monetary policy (rising interest rates) is causing the real exchange rate to appreciate.
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Bottom line: I expect the downturn in markets from the release of the Fed to be reversed during the coming months as the global and domestic impact of the announcement leads to corrections in equity markets, puts pressure again on the Chinese currency, and pushes the ECB to follow expansionary measures to try to further strengthen the dollar.
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"The trend is up, the trend has been up for the last several months and I continue to think that as long as the monetary authorities are going to remain as expansionary as they are [this trend will continue]," the editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter said in an interview with CNBC's "Futures Now " on Thursday.
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Some investors had expected hints that such a policy might be coming to an end and the BOJ might raise its yield target for Japanese government bonds, after a recent speech by Kuroda referring to the negative effects of ultra-expansionary monetary policy The dollar was last at 113.32 yen JPY=, down slightly on the day.
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An appropriate starting point would have been to suggest that the euro area, with a trade surplus of $385 billion (where Germany accounts for $272 billion), an unemployment rate of 9.3 percent, tepid GDP growth of 33 percent and an inflation rate of 1.4 percent should lead the world economy to higher jobs and incomes with expansionary economic policies.
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"I believe it will be difficult for the ECB to talk the euro down in a very significant manner as it has already pretty much exhausted its preferred expansionary monetary policy instruments which it could use to weaken the currency (rate hikes and quantitative easing)," Thu Lan Nguyen, forex analyst at Commerzbank, told CNBC via email.
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Warren, in her letter, pointed out that Moore was quick to criticize low interest rates when Barack Obama was president, but that he has since reversed that position as Trump has turned on the Fed's efforts to keep the economy in check as it absorbs the Republican tax cut and other expansionary measures backed by the President.
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"The move back into expansionary mode in China's official manufacturing PMI is good news ... (but) also somewhat tempered by the facts China's industrial sector is still besieged by deflationary risks and rising borrowing costs while the domestic consumer remains constraint by higher food prices," Rodrigo Catril, senior foreign exchange strategist at National Australia Bank, wrote in a note.
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"What we have done in Norway is that monetary policy has definitely done its job, we have seen a weaker currency which has increased our competitiveness by around 20 percent in the last couple of years and then of course we have the opportunity to run an expansionary fiscal policy at least in a shorter term perspective," explained Jensen to CNBC.
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HG: And finally your excellency one more question can you continue to pursue an expansionary foreign policy given the current price environment with oil prices where they are and also in terms of what's happening here at home, in terms of the cutting of subsidiaries in terms of this basically austerity which is very new for Saudi Arabia – is that something that's achievable?
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At its December meeting, nearly all participants on the Federal Open Market Committee indicated that upside risks to growth had increased on the prospects of a more expansionary fiscal policy, but there also seemed to be an undercurrent of discomfort that, should those lofty expectations go unrealized, sentiment can unwind in a disorderly way that threatens the viability of the economic expansion.
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LONDON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Italian government bond yields fell further on Wednesday with two-year yields down eight basis points to one-week lows amid a stabilisation of global risk sentiment and the lack of fresh negative headlines over the country's budget Rome has officially approved its expansionary budget but markets are relieved that Economy Minister Giovanni Tria remains in office.
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On Wednesday, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said that Italy would not change its expansionary budget, which envisages a budget deficit of 2.4 percent in 2019 (against a previously agreed target of 0.8 percent) telling an Italian radio station today that "Italians come first ... Italy no longer wants to be a servant to silly rules," the head of the Lega party said, Reuters reported.
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"With inflation expectations in a weakening phase, the BOJ shows no sign of movement toward a taper of its stimulus programs...Until Japan shows signs of a sustained and self-reinforcing cycle of rising wages and consumer prices, the BOJ will leave policy in its current, highly expansionary stance," said Bill Adams, senior international economist at PNC Financial Services Group, in a note on Tuesday.
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KEY ASSUMPTIONS Fitch's key assumptions within the rating case for Moto include: - revenue growth at low single-digit rates; - EBITDA margin gradually improving to above 14% (29% excluding fuel) driven by top-line growth; - capex in line with the business pan with drawdowns in the capex facility to finance expansionary capex; - shareholder distributions in line with the business plan and subject to lock-up test.
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"We expect the headwinds for growth from weak global demand and the tightening of financial conditions earlier this year to be roughly offset by the lagged effects of the weaker euro on exports, low oil prices and rising employment supporting consumption, and fiscal policy turning slightly expansionary for the first time since 2009," said Pimco, which oversaw $1.43 trillion in assets as of Dec. 31,.
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Financial Secretary Paul Chan is expected to unveil a more expansionary budget on a bumper fiscal surplus of more than HK$160 billion ($20.45 billion), according to global consultancy EY. While Chan may resist calls for short-term sweeteners such as cash handouts, local media say he will focus on livelihood challenges including a widening wealth gap and improved medical support for the elderly.
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That consideration in itself should have flashed warning signs about, to take one important example, the embrace by Very Serious People of the doctrine of expansionary austerity — it was all too obvious that the austerians wanted a reason to cut government spending, and they should have been extremely wary of studies purporting to say that doing so would actually create jobs in a depressed economy.
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"Overall, we find strong evidence that the consistent pressure applied by President Trump to pursue more expansionary monetary policy is manifested in the market expectations of a lower target rate, forecasting a steady erosion in central bank independence over the course of his presidency," said the paper, authored by economists Francesco Bianchi of Duke University and Howard Kung and Thilo Kind at the London Business School.
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"They're going to re-appraise the situation in the February inflation report but also perhaps it's a gentle reminder to markets that the idea - as markets are pricing the first rate hike as off the radar right now – perhaps (the bank) is a little bit uncomfortable with that because there is still some domestic strength in the economy and the oil price will have an expansionary effect down the track," he added.
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"It looks very likely that in the March budget, we are going to get a very expansionary fiscal policy, quite a lot of which is going to be geared around specific measures to help the north of England and the midlands in particular, areas which have the weakest productivity in the U.K. and have not only been at the core of the problem of the past decade but for decades before," O'Neill said.
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Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the SRM to arrive at the final Long-Term Foreign Currency IDR by applying its QO, relative to rated peers, as follows: --Macroeconomic Performance and Policy Management: -1 notch, to reflect maintenance of expansionary policies (fiscal, monetary, salary, quasi-fiscal) and a stable currency in the face of a structural terms-of-trade shock that is supporting growth at the cost of high fiscal and external deficits, eroding buffers and raising economic vulnerability.
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