So the ex ante equity risk premium in the past may have been 3.3%.
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The way then is perfectly paved for recessions of ex-ante unknowable amplitude and duration.
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"We are going to introduce this ex-ante check of the intergovernmental agreements," Sefcovic said.
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Maybe after the fact they might, but I don't think they want to do that ex ante.
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The primary point of Israel's nuclear forces must always be deterrence ex ante, not revenge ex post.
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Scalia, justices will use history when they believe it supports their ex ante conclusions and ignore it when
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They don't want to be seen as doing anything that's going to interact with trade policy at the ex ante.
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You can regulate before the fact — ex ante, as it's called — or you can regulate after the facts, ex post.
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There is a difference between the ex post premium (what investors actually got) and the ex ante premium (what they expected).
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Oil prices have reflected these ex ante estimates of the probability of output cuts versus the probability of a production rollover.
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It also only refrained from imposing ex ante price regulation but left the door open to after-the-fact price regulation.
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The Fed and the bond markets are now facing a distinct possibility of an ex-ante unknowable acceleration of cost and price inflation.
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That rate, so-called ex-ante, has fallen to 4.7 percent because futures markets are pricing in a long sequence of rate cuts.
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Democrats could run against that record, as defenders of free trade who would return to the global economy to the status quo ex ante.
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The academics allow a fairly generous 1% for future real dividend growth to come up with a current ex ante equity risk premium of 3.5%.
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If there are instances where there are monopolies, it would seem overkill to have an entire federal agency dedicated to ex ante regulation of their services.
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Thus the long-established practice — what can be much more fairly characterized as "on the books" — has been case-by-case enforcement and not ex ante rules.
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The ideal approach is for the methodology itself to dictate which geographic units are an ideal match ex-ante, and to assign all others a zero weight.
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And I know you gave a very lofty speech here with words like "endogeneity" and "ex ante" in your slides -- we are not going to do that here.
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But among oil traders, the consensus seems to be that the ex ante probability of deeper production cuts is very low while the probability of a rollover is high.
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Stocks will do better, but the portfolio should be trimmed for asset values that will resist a process of rising interest rates of ex-ante unknowable speed and extent.
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We would then be looking at runaway trade deficits, increasing foreign debt, falling dollar, sharply rising inflation and a prelude to a recession of ex-ante unknowable amplitude and duration.
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In the event that the meeting agreed on a rollover, the relatively low ex ante probability of output cuts declined to zero ex post, and oil prices adjusted downwards slightly.
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But if the meeting decided on a reduction, the ex ante probability, usually seen as low, suddenly rose to 100 percent ex post, and the surprise factor drove prices higher.
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To accomplish this, policies can be ex ante, like limiting envelopment or re-evaluating merger criteria, or they can be ex post, such as limiting data linkages and stricter privacy oversight.
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If Congress tries to micromanage, lobbyists will fill the gap either by inserting preferred statutory provisions ex ante or by urging Congress to overturn rules ex post, without sufficient public input.
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It would also be less controversial if there were an external actor, such as the Federal Elections Commission, which certified state laws as conforming or not to the congressional guidelines ex ante.
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They must commit to disclosing detailed information relating to planned use of proceeds, provide an ex-ante external review, as well as a post-issuance report presented regularly throughout the lifespan of the security.
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"Importantly though, while some of the activity will be lost permanently, some of the losses will be offset by ex-ante 'preparation' sales as well as clean-up activity," Oxford Economics wrote in the note.
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So there needs to be some sort of regulatory safe harbor for algorithms that are consistent with industry standards (or whatever ex ante standards regulators choose to adopt) so that this litigation risk can be mitigated.
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The Italian government cannot exclude any 5G network provider ex-ante, but is ready to block specific deals on 5G network if a danger for security arises, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte told Il Messaggero on Tuesday.
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To determine how to best honor the Commission's commitment to restoring the free and open Internet, the Internet Freedom NPRM also proposed to reevaluate the Commission's existing rules and enforcement regime to analyze whether ex ante regulatory intervention in the market is necessary.
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"We are actually far outspending on recovery and response, the post-event funding... than on prevention and ex-ante anticipative management, and this is really a problem," said Swenja Surminski, a senior fellow at the London-based Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
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Yet, in a remarkable piece of regulatory hubris last year, the FCC under Wheeler took it upon itself to write its own set of draconian, ex ante privacy rules exclusively for broadband service providers, thus creating a dysfunctional asymmetrical privacy regime for a major sector of the internet ecosystem.
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"When the model is recast to represent realistic distributions of uncertainty, we find a substantial ex ante probability of there being no other intelligent life in our observable universe, and thus that there should be little surprise when we fail to detect any signs of it," the study&aposs abstract reads.
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Accordingly, rather than create a harmonized industry-wide regulatory approach to digital privacy, Wheeler intends to create two discrete asymmetrical regulatory regimes: a restrictive ex ante regime specifically for BSPs with rules enforced at the FCC, and an ex post case-by-case regime enforced by the FTC for everybody else.
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Ex ante regulation traditionally is most appropriate when you see that there's market failure or when you see a marketplace is just so fundamentally broken, you have so much evidence in the record of bad behavior, like blocking websites or whatever, that there's no optimal solution other than preemptive regulation of everybody.
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Thus, rather than create a harmonized industry-wide regulatory approach to digital privacy with the FTC, the FCC created two discrete asymmetrical regulatory regimes: a restrictive ex ante regime specifically for broadband service providers with rules enforced at the FCC, and an ex post case-by-case regime enforced by the FTC for everybody else.
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A report published by the European Central Bank found in the context of the Greek credit crises that contagion effects — being the result of what might be considered irrational behavior — are difficult to detect ex ante, but that negative sovereign shocks do impact the capital costs of neighboring dominions that also have a modicum of financial distress.
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These anti-investment policies include, among others, the FCC's controversial Open Internet rules which establish "zero-price" regulation on BSPs that prohibit them from charging edge providers for imposing costs on their network and the FCC's just-adopted privacy rules that set up an asymmetrical regulatory regime that allows edge providers to collect customer data with impunity but subjects BSPs to a stringent ex ante regulatory regime.
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Though the FCC still has plenary authority over Internet numbering under section 201(a) — the FCC forbore from the application of Section 201 only to the extent that it "would enable the adoption of ex ante rate regulation of broadband Internet access service in the future" — the FCC likewise didn't mention its section 201 numbering authority or explain why it was choosing not to exercise that authority over Internet numbering in the net neutrality order.
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If tracking error is measured historically, it is called 'realized' or 'ex post' tracking error. If a model is used to predict tracking error, it is called 'ex ante' tracking error. Ex- post tracking error is more useful for reporting performance, whereas ex-ante tracking error is generally used by portfolio managers to control risk. Various types of ex-ante tracking error models exist, from simple equity models which use beta as a primary determinant to more complicated multi- factor fixed income models.
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Most confirming houses have overseas offices that assist the supplier in assessing the creditworthiness of the buyer ex-ante.
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The challenge is to develop truthful mechanisms that are fair ex-post and not just ex-ante. Several such mechanisms have been developed.
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A balanced budget requirement is a law that requires a government to balance its budget annually, such that government spending equals government revenue. There are two types of balanced budget requirements: ex-post balanced budget requirements, and ex-ante balanced budget requirements. An ex-post balanced budget requirement stipulates that a government must balance their budget by the end of each fiscal year, while an ex-ante balanced budget requirement dictates that a state must adopt a balanced budget at the beginning of each fiscal year. Ex- ante balanced budget requirements rely on estimates and assumptions about future costs and revenue growth, so they are more easily manipulated.
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Differences in the federal role and the specificity and prescriptiveness of federal goals may also explain the reliance on ex post rather than ex ante approaches.
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Internal rate of return (IRR) is a method of calculating an investment’s rate of return. The term internal refers to the fact that the calculation excludes external factors, such as the risk-free rate, inflation, the cost of capital, or financial risk. The method may be applied either ex-post or ex-ante. Applied ex-ante, the IRR is an estimate of a future annual rate of return.
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Additionality may be evaluated ex post, as is often done in the practice of program evaluation. Or it can be done ex ante, as an initial eligibility screen for issuing credits as part of an environmental or other public goods market. For ex ante applications, additionality is evaluated for proposed activities. A proposed activity is additional if the recognized interventions are deemed to be causing the activity to take place.
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Much debate in types of conditionality centers around ex-ante versus ex-post conditionality. In ex-post conditionality, the country receiving aid agrees to conditions set by the donor or lender that they will carry out after they receive the aid. Later follow-ups determine whether they might receive more aid. Ex-ante conditionality requires a country to meet certain conditions and prove it can maintain them before it will receive any aid.
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He built on Knut Wicksell's theories of cumulative process of endogenous money, stressing the importance of Knightian uncertainty and Ex ante and Ex post expectations role in the economic process.
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Economist Lok Sang Ho in his Public Policy and the Public InterestRoutledge, 2012 (first published in 2011). argues that the public interest must be assessed impartially and, therefore, defines the public interest as the "ex ante welfare of the representative individual." Under a thought experiment, by assuming that there is an equal chance for one to be anyone in society and, thus, could benefit or suffer from a change, the public interest is by definition enhanced whenever that change is preferred to the status quo ex ante. This approach is "ex ante", in the sense that the change is not evaluated after the fact but assessed before the fact without knowing whether one would actually benefit or suffer from it.
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According to CDIC's Quarterly Financial Report at 31 December 2017, CDIC protects $774 billion CAD in insured deposits. CDIC's ex ante funding level is $4.2 billion, representing 55 basis points of insured deposits.
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Several ex ante remedies exist that help to avoid or minimize possible common method variance. Important remedies have been compiled and discussed by Chang et al. (2010), Lindell & Whitney (2001) and Podsakoff et al. (2003).
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In addition, countries could be expected to hold sufficient liquid reserves to ensure that they could avoid new borrowing for one year with a certain ex ante probability, such as 95 percent of the time.
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Then ex-ante macroprudential regulations can play a role to manage overall mood and alert the risks.Akerlof, George A. and Shiller, Robert J. (2009). Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism.
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The proposed APIA approach was tested through an ex-ante impact assessment in Laos and an ex-post assessment in Sri Lanka.Nguyen Khoa et al.2005 In Laos, the ex-ante appraisal of the damming of a small river predicted a modest positive impact on production and livelihoods, with creation of a reservoir fishery outweighing degradation of the pre-existing river fishery. The outcome was contingent on continuation of rainfed wet season rice production and traditional farming practices, as adoption of practices involving reduced water storage in paddy fields was likely to reduce fish production considerably.
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There are several changes to the PWYW model which can improve its profitability while maintaining its buyer appeal. Ex ante pricing One simple enhancement is to shift the time of pricing from the usual practice of ex ante pricing, which is done at the initiation of a transaction and prior to the consumption experience, to ex post pricing, which defers pricing to a follow- up step after the consumption experience. A commercial use that emphasizes this feature is book-seller OpenBooks.com. An academic paper explains that post-pricing separates the buying decision and the pricing decision.
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Evolutionary systems are characterized by "moving equilibria and the dynamics of coevolutionary interactions which can not be foreseen ex ante."Rammel, Christian, and Jeroen CJM van den Bergh. "Evolutionary policies for sustainable development: adaptive flexibility and risk minimising." Ecological Economics 47.2 (2003): 121-133.
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The term “prudential” distinguishes such typical capital control measures from other general capital controls by emphasizing both the motive of “prudence” and the ex-ante timing. Firstly, the prudence motivation requirement says that such regulation should curb and manage the excessive risk accumulation process with cautious forethoughts for the purpose of preventing an emerging financial crisis and economic collapse. Secondly, the ex-ante timing means that such regulation should be taken effectively before the realization of any unfettered crisis as opposed to taking policy interventions after a severe crisis already hits the economy.Korinek, Anton 2011, "The New Economics of Prudential Capital Controls: A Research Agenda", IMF Economic Review 59, 523-561.
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For example, in the case of a health insurance company insuring an individual during a specific time period, the final health of the individual can be thought of as the outcome. The individual taking greater risks during the period would be ex-ante moral hazard whereas lying about a fictitious health problem to defraud the insurance company would be ex post moral hazard. A second example is the case of a bank making a loan to an entrepreneur for a risky business venture. The entrepreneur becoming overly risky would be ex ante moral hazard, but willful default (wrongly claiming the venture failed when it was profitable) is ex post moral hazard.
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6 and following pages Balances Mechanics thus uses the interrelations of real identities and reveals serious fallacies of model making from wrongly assumed identities (ex ante equilibrium conditions/ex post identity equations).Michael Frenkel, Klaus Dieter John: Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung. München 2011, (online auf Google.Books) p. 30.
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Device neutrality: Similarly, neutrality principles are codified ex-ante and avail judicial remedies. Device vendors can establish policies for managing applications, but they, too, must be applied neutrally. An unsuccessful bill to enforce network and device neutrality was introduced in Italy in 2015 by Hon. Stefano Quintarelli.
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The probability h is sometimes called the "Calvo probability" in this context. In the Calvo model the crucial feature is that the price-setter does not know how long the nominal price will remain in place, in contrast to the Taylor model where the length of contract is known ex ante.
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Unlike in the Cournot game firms act sequentially, with the leader choosing a quantity first. The follower observes the decision of the leader and chooses his quantity. There are some further constraints upon the sustaining of a Stackelberg equilibrium. The leader must know ex ante that the follower observes his action.
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It is impossible to attain these properties in addition to proportionality - giving each agent a utility of at least 1/n; or at least the fraction of good to feasible outcomes. conjecture that no ex ante efficient and strategyproof mechanism guarantees a strictly positive utility to all agents, and prove a weaker statement.
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500px The most sophisticated methods of project appraisal and evaluation have been developed and applied in the transport sector. The terms appraisal and evaluation are often confused in relation to the assessment of projects. Appraisal refers to ex ante (before the event) assessment and evaluation refers to ex post (after the event) assessment.
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The Commission task force worked with the European Court of Auditors, the Wise Men committee, the World Bank and the EIB in developing the new control framework. Before this could be implemented, the Financial Regulation of the Commission needed to be changed (requiring a vote by all member states) to abolish the centralized ex-ante controls performed by DG Financial Control.
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Australia has few rules on political donations. Only if it can be found to be a breach of a director's duty (e.g. a director is a member of a political party), or would involve oppression of the minority (inherently unlikely) can anything be done as a company law matter. There is no requirement for ex ante approval of donations with political objects.
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However, the reference to ex ante and ex post analysis has become so usual in modern macroeconomics that the position of Keynes to not include it in his work was currently considered as an oddity, if not a mistake. As Shackle put it: Gunnar Myrdal also developed the key concept circular cumulative causation, a multi-causal approach where the core variables and their linkages are delineated.
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The consumer sets MB=MC out of pocket, and so the "effective demand" will have a separate relationship between price and quantity than will the "marginal benefit curve" or real demand relationship. This distinction is often described under the rubric of "ex-post moral hazard" (which is again distinct from ex-ante moral hazard, which is found in any type of market with insurance).
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OMT has no ex-ante time or size limit. However, the activation of the purchases remains conditioned to the adherence by the benefitting country to an adjustment programme to the ESM. To date, OMT was never actually implemented by the ECB. However it is considered that its announcement (together with the "whatever it takes" speech) significantly contributed in stabilizing financial markets and ended the sovereign debt crisis.
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Fred's Intelligent Bear Site The dividends have increased the total "real" return on average equity to the double, about 3.2%. The sensitivity to market risk (β) is unique for each firm and depends on everything from management to its business and capital structure. This value cannot be known "ex ante" (beforehand), but can be estimated from ex post (past) returns and past experience with similar firms.
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In the basic form of the game, there are two players communicating, one sender S and one receiver R. Type. Sender S gets knowledge of the state of the world or of his "type" t. Receiver R does not know t ; he has only ex-ante beliefs about it, and relies on a message from S to possibly improve the accuracy of his beliefs. Message. S decides to send message m.
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The representation of reality created by digital twins allows manufacturers to evolve towards ex-ante business practices. The future of manufacturing drives on the following four aspects: modularity, autonomy, connectivity and digital twin. As there is an increasing digitalization in the stages of a manufacturing process, opportunities are opening up to achieve a higher productivity. This starts with modularity and leading to higher effectiveness in the production system.
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Smart Pricing, Chapter 1. "Pay As You Wish" Pricing, Raju and Zhang, Wharton School Publishing, 2010. . Many common PWYW models set the price prior to a purchase (ex ante), but some defer price-setting until after the experience of consumption (ex post) (similar to tipping). PWYW is a buyer- centered form of participatory pricing, also referred to as co-pricing (as an aspect of the co-creation of value).
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A. Mas-Colell, M. Whinston, and J. Green (1995), Microeconomic Theory. Chapter 14, 'The Principal-Agent Problem', p. 477. Bengt Holmström said this: Moral hazard can be divided into two types when it involves asymmetric information (or lack of verifiability) of the outcome of a random event. An ex ante moral hazard is a change in behavior prior to the outcome of the random event, whereas ex post involves behavior after the outcome.
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First, market signals can act ex ante in the competition among different paradigms: if more paradigms are available, firms would select one or the other according to their expected profitability. But once a paradigm is affirmed, the direction of technological change would be already implied by its technological prescriptions. Second, market signals can act by selecting ex post those applications of the affirmed paradigm (i.e. the final products) that best fit the market requests.
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Top-quartile investment managers typically achieve annualized information ratios of about one-half.Richard C. Grinold and Ronald N. Kahn, Active Portfolio Management, Second Edition, page 114. There are both ex ante (expected) and ex post (observed) information ratios. Generally, the information ratio compares the returns of the manager's portfolio with those of a benchmark such as the yield on three-month Treasury bills or an equity index such as the S&P; 500\.
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There are some further constraints upon the sustaining of a Stackelberg equilibrium. The leader must know ex ante that the follower observes its action. The follower must have no means of committing to a future non-Stackelberg leader's action and the leader must know this. Indeed, if the 'follower' could commit to a Stackelberg leader action and the 'leader' knew this, the leader's best response would be to play a Stackelberg follower action.
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It means that he or she was the most optimistic and, if bidders are correct in their estimations on average, that too much was paid. Therefore savvy bidders revise their ex ante estimations downwards to take account of this effect. The severity of the winner's curse increases with the number of bidders. This is because the more bidders, the more likely it is that some of them have overestimated the auctioned item's value.
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Yield to maturity is applied to a fixed income security. It is the holder's ex-ante total return, calculated assuming it is held until maturity, and assuming there is no default, using the internal rate of return (IRR) method. Because of these differences, the yields comparisons between different yields measured on different types of financial products should be treated with caution. This page is mainly a series of links to other pages with increased details.
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PS satisfies an efficiency property called stochastic-dominace Pareto efficiency (sd-efficiency, also called: ordinal efficiency). Informally it means that, considering the resulting probability matrix, there is no other matrix that all agents weakly-sd-prefer and at least one agent strictly-sd- prefers. Here, the ex-ante notion of sd-efficiency is stronger than the ex- post notion: sd-efficiency implies that every allocation selected by the lottery is sd-Pareto-efficient.
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The Rachev ratio can be used in both ex-ante and ex-post analyses. The 5% ETL and 5% ETR of a non-Gaussian return distribution. Although the most probable return is positive, the Rachev ratio is 0.7 < 1, which means that the excess loss is not balanced by the excess profit in the investment. In the ex-post analysis, the Rachev ratio is computed by dividing the corresponding two sample AVaR's.
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This kind of a hierarchical game is asymmetric in nature, where the leader and the follower can not be interchanged. The leader knows ex ante that the follower observes its actions before responding in an optimal manner. Therefore, if the leader wants to optimize its objective, then it needs to anticipate the optimal response of the follower. In this setting, the leader's optimization problem contains a nested optimization task that corresponds to the follower's optimization problem.
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The final force is the (social) architecture. By that Lessig means "features of the world, whether made, or found"; noting that facts like biology, geography, technology and others constrain our actions. Together, those four forces are the totality of what constrains our action, in fashion both direct and indirect, ex post and ex ante. The theory has been formally called by Lessig in 1998 "The New Chicago School", and can be seen as a theory of regulation.
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In the late 1980s, Rosenzweig's research also came to address the question of how rural households cope with risk. Therein, Rosenzweig highlights the role of household structure in mitigating income volatility risks in rural areas through implicit contracts and how households' ability to mitigate risk ex post in turn affects households' willingness to bear risk ex ante through their selection of formal tenancy contracts.Rosenzweig, M.R. (1988). Risk, Implicit Contracts and the Family in Rural Areas of Low-income Countries.
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Myerson and Satterthwaite study the following requirements that an ideal mechanism should satisfy (see also Double auction#requirements): 1\. ex-ante individual rationality (IR): The expected value of both Bob and Sally should be non-negative (so that they have an initial incentive to participate). Formally: U_S(v_S,v_S)\geq 0 and U_B(v_B,v_B)\geq 0. 2\. Weak balanced budget (WBB): The auctioneer should not have to bring money from home in order to subsidize the trade. 3\.
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In this respect, scenario analysis tries to defer statistical laws (e.g., Chebyshev's inequality Law), because the decision rules occur outside a constrained setting. Outcomes are not permitted to “just happen”; rather, they are forced to conform to arbitrary hypotheses ex post, and therefore there is no footing on which to place expected values. In truth, there are no ex ante expected values, only hypotheses, and one is left wondering about the roles of modeling and data decision.
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The inflation rate will not be known in advance. People often base their expectation of future inflation on an average of inflation rates in the past, but this gives rise to errors. The real interest rate ex-post may turn out to be quite different from the real interest rate (ex-ante real interest rate) that was expected in advance. Borrowers hope to repay in cheaper money in the future, while lenders hope to collect on more expensive money.
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This is not to say that a stock picker cannot achieve a superior return, just that the excess return will on average not exceed the costs of winning it (including salaries, information costs, and trading costs). The conclusion is that most investors would be better off buying a cheap index fund. Note that return refers to the ex-ante expectation; ex-post realisation of payoffs may make some stock-pickers appear successful. In addition, there have been many criticisms of the EMH.
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Moreover, he already emphasized in the 1990s the risk that excessive budget deficits in the Eurozone may pressure the European Central Bank to violate its fiscal restrictions and bail out excessively indebted governments ex post (by monetizing the government's debt) or ex ante (by keeping interest rates very low), thus in turn priming the Eurozone for high inflation (with Barry Eichengreen).Von Hagen, J., Eichengreen, B. (1996). Federalism, Fiscal Restraints, and European Monetary Union. American Economic Review, 86(2), pp. 134-138.
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Hahnel and Sheeran conclude that it is highly unlikely that conditions required for an efficient Coaseian solution will exist in any real-world economic situations. Unconstrained Coasean bargaining ex post may also lead to a hold-up problem ex ante. Thus, even though it is often claimed that Coasean bargaining is an alternative to Pigouvian taxation, it has been argued that in a hold-up situation Coasean bargaining may actually justify a Pigouvian tax. Alternatively, it may be efficient to forbid renegotiation.
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Tax-benefit models are used by policy makers and researchers to examine the effects of proposed or hypothetical policy changes on income inequality, poverty and government budget. Their primary advantage over conventional cross-country comparison method is that they are very powerful at evaluating policy changes not only ex post, but also ex ante. Generally, tax-benefit models can simulate income taxes, property taxes, social contributions, social assistance, income benefits and other benefits. The underlying micro-data are obtained mainly through household surveys.
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Ex-ante Envy-Freeness means that no partner envies the lottery of any other partner. This condition is trivial to achieve in a truthful mechanism: randomise over all possible allocations with equal probability and charge each partner 1/n of the total cost. But this condition is not appealing, since there is a large chance that in the final outcome, many partners will be envious. They may not be comforted by the fact that the lottery has been fair. 2\.
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However, the reference to ex ante and ex post analysis has become so usual in modern macroeconomics that the position of Keynes to not include it in his work, is currently considered as an oddity, if not a mistake. As Shackle put it:Shackle, G.L.S. (1989) "What did the General Theory do?", in J. Pheby (ed), New Directions in Post-keynesian Economics, Aldershot: Edward Elgar. Shackle has also made important contributions to the history of economic thought, especially with regard to twentieth century economic schools of thought.
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So to consider the need for economic transparency, an asymmetrical distribution of information between different economic agents has to occur. Full transparency may not necessarily mean that all information is complete and publicly accessible, but that there is no asymmetry in distributing private information between those economic actors. Increasing transparency contributes to the reduction of information asymmetries. Transparency concerning quality and intent (or effort) is sometimes referred to as ” ex-ante transparency“ (associated with predictability) whereby ” ex-post transparency“ means transparency of outcomes (associated with accountability).
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Let the full employment output be YF and the actual output that the economy is currently producing be Y. If the difference YF \- Y is negative, the actual national income exceeds the potential national income, which is known as the inflationary gap. If this gap is positive, it is known as recessionary gap. The inflationary gap is always an ex-ante phenomenon; it is always expected to occur in the future. It arises when expected expenditure will not equal expected consumption at a future date.
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Gordon majored in economics and statistics at the University of California, Berkeley, and earned a doctorate in economics from Stanford University. Her dissertation, Ex ante and Ex post Substitutability in Economic Growth, was supervised by Kenneth Arrow. After completing her Ph.D., she became a faculty member at Carnegie Mellon University from 1970 to 1974, and then a senior research associate at the Urban Institute. She began working for president Jimmy Carter in 1979, as a senior advisor and executive director of the Presidential Task Force on Women.
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Parametric insurance is a type of insurance that does not indemnify the pure loss, but ex ante agrees to make a payment upon the occurrence of a triggering event. The triggering event is often a catastrophic natural event which may ordinarily precipitate a loss or a series of losses. But parametric insurance principles are also applied to agricultural crop insurance and other normal risks not of the nature of disaster, if the outcome of the risk is correlated to a parameter or an index of parameters.
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Like the classical approach, the IS- LM model contains an equilibrium condition that equates saving and investment. The loanable funds doctrine, by contrast, does not equate saving and investment, both understood in an ex ante sense, but integrates bank credit creation into this equilibrium condition. According to Ohlin: "There is a credit market ... but there is no such market for savings and no price of savings". An extension of bank credit reduces the interest rate in the same way as an increase in saving.
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Commentator Jim Cramer has expressed concern about short selling and started a petition calling for the reintroduction of the uptick rule. Books like Don't Blame the Shorts by Robert Sloan and Fubarnomics by Robert E. Wright suggest Cramer exaggerated the costs of short selling and underestimated the benefits, which may include the ex ante identification of asset bubbles. Individual short sellers have been subject to criticism and even litigation. Manuel P. Asensio, for example, engaged in a lengthy legal battle with the pharmaceutical manufacturer Hemispherx Biopharma.
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The program is believed to have contributed to Brazil's recent reported improvements in its fight against poverty, according to research promoted by some universities and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). An ex ante econometric evaluation of Bolsa Escola did find significant effects on both school attendance rates and the number of children involved in child labor.SSRN-Ex-ante Evaluation of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs: The Case of Bolsa Escola by Francois Bourguignon, Francisco Ferreira, Phillippe Leite The World Bank, which created on June 2005 a Bolsa Família Project\- Bolsa Familia Project, The World Bank to assist the Brazilian government in managing the Bolsa Família Program, declared that "Although the program is relatively young, some results are already apparent, including: (...) contributions to improved education outcomes, and impacts on children’s growth, food consumption, and diet quality".Brazil’s Bolsa Familia Program Celebrates Progress in Lifting Families out of Poverty, News & Broadcast, The World Bank, Brasilia, Brazil, December 19, 2005 A study by the UNDP Poverty Centre found that over 80% of the Bolsa Familia benefits went to families in poverty (making under half the minimum wage per capita), thus most of the benefits were going to the poor.
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Based on the new regulation, European regions have developed so called smart specialisation strategies to identify their particular strengths and potentials as the basis for investments. The adoption of smart specialisation strategy was an ex-ante conditionality for the approval of regional programs for the period 2014–2020. Despite cuts in the overall EU budget, Hahn succeeded to keep the high level of financial support for strategic investments in the new period (2014–2020): Funding for regional and cohesion policy in 2014–2020 amounts to 351,8 billion Euro.
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In mathematical finance, a portfolio is called growth optimal if security weights maximize the expected geometric growth rate (which is equivalent to maximizing log wealth). Computations of growth optimal portfolios can suffer tremendous garbage in, garbage out problems. For example, the cases below take as given the expected return and covariance structure of various assets, but these parameters are at best estimated or modeled with significant uncertainty. Ex-post performance of a supposed growth optimal portfolio may differ fantastically with the ex-ante prediction if portfolio weights are largely driven by estimation error.
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Together with Coen Teulings, Hartog has leveraged his research on wage behaviour to develop a theory why non-competitive wage differentials are smaller in a corporatist system than in a decentralized system, arguing that corporatist institutions provide a solutions to the hold-up problem of investments by specifying ex ante contracts that remove the need for labour market parties to bargain ex post over the use of the employment relationship's economic surplus.Teulings, C., Hartog, J. (1998). Corporatism or competition? Labour contracts, institutions and wage structures in international comparison.
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The Kelly criterion for intertemporal portfolio choice states that, when asset return distributions are identical in all periods, a particular portfolio replicated each period will outperform all other portfolio sequences in the long run. Here the long run is an arbitrarily large number of time periods such that the distributions of observed outcomes for all assets match their ex ante probability distributions. The Kelly criterion gives rise to the same portfolio decisions as does the maximization of the expected value of the log utility function as described above.
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The evolution of India's small car sector has also provided some valuable insights into possible emergence of a lead market in a country. This model, if validated by further research, would help enable an ex ante analysis of lead markets, whereas so far mostly ex post, macroeconomic analyses have been the norm. The original lead market framework by Beise follows the a priori assumption that lead markets emerge on the national level. As this might not hold for every empirical case, research in economic geography suggests to add more spatial sensitivity to the framework.
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In baseball, the statistic applies to players, who prior to a game, are included on a starting lineup card or are announced as an ex ante substitute, whether or not they play,Section 20 of the official scorer guidelines although, in Major League Baseball, the application of this statistic doesn't extend to consecutive games played streaks. A starting pitcher, then, may be credited with a game played even as he is not credited with a game started or an inning pitched. For pitchers only, the statistic games pitched is used.
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While socialism is not equivalent to economic planning or to the concept of a planned economy, an influential conception of socialism involves the replacement of capital markets with some form of economic planning in order to achieve ex-ante coordination of the economy. The goal of such an economic system would be to achieve conscious control over the economy by the population, specifically so that the use of the surplus product is controlled by the producers. The specific forms of planning proposed for socialism and their feasibility are subjects of the socialist calculation debate.
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In finance, the yield on a security is a measure of the ex-ante return to a holder of the security. It is measure applied to common, preferred stock, convertible stocks and bonds, fixed income instruments, including bonds, including government bonds and corporate bonds, notes and annuities. There are various types of yield, and the method of calculation depends on the particular type of yield and the type of security. Dividend yield measures the past year's dividends on a stock (a share), expressed as a percentage of the share's market value.
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As explained above, the allocation determined by PS is fair only ex-ante but not ex-post. Moreover, when each agent may get any number of items, the ex-post unfairness might be arbitrarily bad: it is possible that one agent will get all the items while other agents get none. The PS-lottery algorithm is an improvement of PS in which the lottery is done only among deterministic allocations that are envy-free-except-one-item (EF1). This guaratees that the ex-post allocation is "not too unfair".
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Positive accounting can be associated with the contractual view of the firm. The firm is viewed as “a nexus of contracts” and accounting one tool to facilitate the formation and performance of contracts. Under this view, accounting practices evolve to mitigate contracting costs by establishing ex ante agreement among varying parties. For example, positive accounting postulates that conservatism in accounting –in this sense defined conditionally as requiring lower (higher) standards of verifiability to recognize losses (gains)– has origins in contract markets, including managerial compensation contracts and lender debt contracts.
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"It's putting too much pressure on these meetings and it is making, in my opinion, the committee sometimes make decisions that are a little bit out of sync with the most recent data," Bullard said. He also added, "I want the committee to have a press conference at every meeting, so that every meeting looks, ex ante, identical. And this would give the committee the freedom to make a move or not make a move at a particular meeting.""Bullard: Fed should hold press conference at every meeting," Reuters. Aug.
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This work is designed to support parliamentary committees in the successive stages of the policy cycle - including the identification, quantification and justification of parliamentary initiatives, and on the implementation and effectiveness of EU law and policies in practice. It therefore contributes to the Parliament's influence on policy development, as well as to improving the overall quality of the law-making process. The Directorate is organised in six units: European Added Value, Ex-Ante and Ex-Post Impact Assessment Units, European Council Oversight, Scientific Foresight (STOA) and Global Trends Unit.Wolfs, Wouter (2016).
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Since the performance levels in the Rachev ratio are quantiles of the active return distribution, they are relative levels as they adjust according to the distribution. For example, if the scale is small, then the two performance levels will be closer to each other. As a consequence, the Rachev ratio is always well-defined. In the ex- ante analysis, optimal portfolio problems based on the Rachev ratio are, generally, numerically hard to solve because the Rachev ratio is a fraction of two CVaRs which are convex functions of portfolio weights.
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A request for tender and request for quotation is a closed tender where people are invited by a buyer to quote for specific work. A tender notification alerts potential suppliers of open tenders that they then have to register interest in before entering the tendering process. Invitation to tender is also a similar process to a tender notification. The major difference is the institution or organisation who created the tender chooses whom to invite, often in the form of a closed tender where they can then publish a Voluntary Ex-Ante Transparency Notice (VEAT) for transparency.
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In economic theory, the management of innovation has been studied by Philippe Aghion and Jean Tirole (1994). Their work is based on the Grossman-Hart-Moore property rights approach to the theory of the firm. According to this theory, the optimal allocation of property rights helps to alleviate the hold-up problem (an underinvestment problem that occurs when investments are non-contractible). In the work of Oliver Hart and his co-authors, the parties agree on the ownership structure that maximizes the parties’ expected total surplus (which they can divide with suitable up-front transfer payments according to their ex ante bargaining power).
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Were a court to intervene here, it might be required inappropriately to issue an ex ante command to the President and officials responsible for operations with respect to their specific tactical judgment to mount a potential lethal operation against a senior operational leader of al-Qa'ida or its associated forces. And judicial enforcement of such orders would require the Court to supervise inherently predictive judgments by the President and his national security advisors as to when and how to use force against a member of an enemy force against which Congress has authorized the use of force.
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He says it is less expensive and less difficult for two neighbors to come to an agreement about a fence, the amount of noise, or the amount of smoke than it is for these two neighbors to approach a third party to solve the situation for them. Even when several parties are involved, outside interference could result in an inefficient outcome. Yet, in dynamic settings Coasean bargaining ex post may lead to inefficient investments ex ante (the so-called hold-up problem). For this reason, some authors have argued that unconstrained Coasean bargaining may actually justify Pigouvian taxation.
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Charged with serving as the government's auditor, it must take part in the approval or rejection of the revenue and investment accounts of public funds, scrutinizes the collection and expenditure of government funds by the National Treasury, the municipalities, and other state services as determined by law. The office also performs a legality review function called "toma de razón". Exercising this ex-ante review power, the comptroller scrutinises, on constitutional and legal grounds, executive decisions and regulations prior to their official publication or communication. In practice, this checking procedure may represent an effective veto point in the Chilean administrative process.
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On 8 February 2016, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) banned differential pricing of data services. As per TRAI's press release, the regulator had multiple responses soliciting different opinions with respect to its consultation paper. Considering all the responses, the regulator decided to have an ex ante regulation instead of a case by case tariff investigation regime. According to the TRAI this decision was reached in order to give the industry participants the much needed certainty and in view of the high costs of regulation in terms of time and resources that will be required for investigating each case of tariff discrimination.
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The property rights approach based on incomplete contracting has been criticized by Williamson (2000) because it is focused on ex ante investment incentives, while it neglects ex post inefficiencies. It has been pointed out by Schmitz (2006) that the property rights approach can be extended to the case of asymmetric information, which may explain ex post inefficiencies. The property rights approach has also been extended by Chiu (1998) and DeMeza and Lockwood (1998), who allow for different ways to model the renegotiations. In a more recent extension, Hart and Moore (2008) have argued that contracts may serve as reference points.
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Directorate A, the Members’ Research Service (MRS), undertakes the EPRS's research for individual MEPs and produces a wide variety of general analytical publications on EU issues for the Parliament as a whole. Directorate B, the Library, manages the European Parliament’s Reading Rooms in Brussels, Strasbourg and Luxembourg, which are also used as a venue for policy roundtables. Directorate C, the Directorate for Impact Assessment and European Added Value, conducts specialist studies in ex-ante and ex-post policy evaluation for the Committees of the European ParliamentEuropean Parliamentary Research Service. The Work of EPRS – The first three years: 2014 to 2016, March 2017, .
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Where this risk is material the regulator has no choice but to ensure the regulated firm is adequately compensated on average ex ante. As a general rule, where the regulatory framework ensures that the regulated firm is adequately compensated on average it must be the case that if there is some positive probability that the out-turn return of the firm is below the allowed cost of capital there must be a positive probability that the out-turn return of the firm is above the allowed cost of capital so that, on average, the firm expects to receive the allowed cost of capital.
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Switzerland is one of the last OECD nations to provide for unbundling, because the Swiss Federal Supreme Court held in 2001 that the 1996 Swiss Telecommunications Act did not require it. The government then enacted an ordinance providing for unbundling in 2003, and Parliament amended the act in 2006. While infrastructure-based access is now generally available, unbundled fast bitstream access is limited to a period of four years after the entry into force of the act. Unbundling requests tend to be tied up before the courts, however, because unlike in the EU, Swiss law does not provide for an ex ante regulation of access conditions by the regulator.
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The standard setup for financial contracting problems in CSV framework involves two risk-neutral agents, a wealth- constrained entrepreneur with an investment project, and a wealthy investor with capital available. The fixed capital invested in the project generates random cash flow at future time t with probability distribution over the possible range of profits. The entrepreneur has private information about realized cash flows from the project, but it can credibly disclose them to the investor by incurring certain cost. The solution to this problem should provide ex-ante optimal contract structure which specify in which scenario realized cash flow should be audited and certified.
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Shackle was influenced by Keynes and Gunnar Myrdal and challenged the conventional role of probability in economics, contending that it failed adequately to deal with "surprising" events. The grounds of his thinking can be seen in Keynes's remark: Though technical in nature, Shackle's work took economics into novel territory such as the importance of imagination in economic decisions to assess the plausibility of alternative outcomes. Though Shackle's work has had a limited impact on mainstream thought within economics, it continues (perhaps increasingly) to attract interest. He also claimed the importance of Gunnar Myrdal's analysis by which saving and investment are allowed to adjust ex ante to each other.
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Microwave measurement techniques based on cavity perturbation theory are generally used to determine the dielectric and magnetic parameters of materials and various circuit components such as dielectric resonators. Since ex-ante knowledge of the resonant frequency, resonant frequency shift and electromagnetic fields is necessary in order to extrapolate material properties, these measurement techniques generally make use of standard resonant cavities where resonant frequencies and electromagnetic fields are well known. Two examples of such standard resonant cavities are rectangular and circular waveguide cavities and coaxial cables resonators . Cavity perturbation measurement techniques for material characterization are used in many fields ranging from physics and material science to medicine and biology.
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Myerson and Satterthwaite considered an asymmetric initial situation, in the sense that at the outset one party has 100% of the good and the other party has 0% of the good. It has been shown that ex post efficiency can be attained if initially both parties own 50% of the good to be traded. 3\. The latter result has been extended to settings in which the parties can make unobservable ex ante investments in order to increase their own valuations. Yet, ex post efficiency cannot be achieved if the seller's unobservable investment increases the buyer's valuation, even if only the buyer has private information about his or her valuation. 4\.
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Device neutrality is the principle that in order to ensure freedom of choice and freedom of communication for users of network-connected devices, it is not sufficient that network operators do not interfere with their choices and activities; users must be free to use applications of their choice and hence remove the applications they do not want. It can be defined with the following analogy to network neutrality: Network neutrality: Neutrality principles are codified ex- ante, and a judicial route is available for redress. Connectivity providers can implement traffic management, but the rules must be the same for everyone. The antitrust alternative, takes more time and offers few precedents.
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Journal of Management Studies. 44(6), 910–931 On the employee level of analysis, both psychological factors and paradoxical leadership of group managers predict employees’ ambidextrous behavior.Kauppila, O. P., & Tempelaar, M. P. (2016). The social-cognitive underpinnings of employees’ ambidextrous behaviour and the supportive role of group managers’ leadership. Journal of Management Studies. 53(6), 1019–1044. For instance, ex-ante incentives (incentives based on past performance) and ex-post incentives (incentives based on future performance) affect productivity, motivation, and performance of employees, while making them feel the sense of stretch essential in building an ambidextrous organization.Ahammad, M., Lee, M., Malul, M., & Shoham, A. (2015).
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The decision to save an identifiable victim is made ex post, meaning it is done after the victim is in danger. In contrast, the decision to save a statistical victim is often made ex ante, as a pre-emptive measure to prevent the individual from being in danger. When people consider the risks of not helping a victim, they consider the probability of being responsible and blamed. This probability is much greater with identifiable victims than with statistical victims because one cannot accurately predict the likelihood of a tragedy occurring in the future and thus cannot be held responsible for tragedies that might occur in the future.
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Fondo Interbancario di Tutela dei Depositi (FITD) was founded in 1987. It was mandatory for Italian bank to join either FITD or the Fondo di Garanzia dei Depositanti del Credito Cooperativo. The latter was for the cooperative banks (banca di credito cooperativo (BCC) network, excluding cooperative bank type banco popolare) of Italy. Some bank which was demutualized from BCC network, such as Banca di Cambiano, switched to FITD after the demutualization. Due to the change in the directive (2014/49/EU), which was part of the Single Rulebook, the regulatory foundations for Banking Union, the fund had changed from ex-post to an ex-ante system.
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The main tool used by this approach is risk assessment. A risk assessment method, based on experimenting and assessing risk ex-post, once the technology is in place. In the context of hydraulic fracturing, it means that drilling permits are issued and exploitation conducted before the potential risks on the environment and human health are known. The risk-based approach mainly relies on a discourse that sacralizes technological innovations as an intrinsic good, and the analysis of such innovations, such as hydraulic fracturing, is made on a sole cost-benefit framework, which does not allow prevention or ex-ante debates on the use of the technology.
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3(1), Regulation 139/2004, the European Community Merger Regulation The reasons for oversight of economic concentrations by the state are the same as the reasons to restrict firms who abuse a position of dominance, only that regulation of mergers and acquisitions attempts to deal with the problem before it arises, ex ante prevention of creating dominant firms. In the case of [T-102/96] Gencor Ltd v. Commission [1999] ECR II-753 the EU Court of First Instance wrote merger control is there "to avoid the establishment of market structures which may create or strengthen a dominant position and not need to control directly possible abuses of dominant positions".
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Consuming the good reduces information asymmetries about the good's quality, so the buyer is informed of the product's quality when they decide what to pay. Risk- averse buyers who would not purchase the good at a fixed price for fear of its quality (or would price at a discount in an ex ante PWYW system) can be enticed to purchase the product using an ex post PWYW system. The ex post PWYW system works as a signal of quality to attract risk-averse buyers. This can be a profitable strategy as it attracts risk-averse buyers, increasing the consumer base and allowing economies of scale in production.
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The intuition behind the RDD is well illustrated using the evaluation of merit-based scholarships. The main problem with estimating the causal effect of such an intervention is the homogeneity of performance to the assignment of treatment (e.g. scholarship award): Since high-performing students are more likely to be awarded the merit scholarship and continue performing well at the same time, comparing the outcomes of awardees and non-recipients would lead to an upward bias of the estimates. Even if the scholarship did not improve grades at all, awardees would have performed better than non-recipients, simply because scholarships were given to students who were performing well ex ante.
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Moreover, parties cannot commit themselves never to engage in mutually beneficial renegotiation later on in their relationship. Thus, an immediate consequence of the incomplete contracting approach is the so-called hold-up problem. Since at least in some states of the world the parties will renegotiate their contractual arrangements later on, they have insufficient incentives to make relationship-specific investments (since a party's investment returns will partially go to the other party in the renegotiations). Oliver Hart and his co-authors argue that the hold-up problem may be mitigated by choosing a suitable ownership structure ex ante (according to the incomplete contracting paradigm, more complex contractual arrangements are ruled out).
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Departurism is a theory developed by Sean Parr which, like evictionism, holds that the mother may evict but not directly kill the "trespassing" fetus, but, contrary to evictionism, neither may she kill him by eviction. The mother, if her actions are to conform to gentleness (an ex ante element of law akin to the ex post element proportionality), must allow for the continued departure of the trespasser until such time that eviction no longer entails his death. That is, it is only the fatal (or otherwise seriously injurious) eviction of a fetus during a normal pregnancy that departurism argues is discordant with gentleness and, thus, a NAP- violation.
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Political economy and public economics are the main fields where the probabilistic voting theory is applied. In particular, it was used to explain public expenditure (Persson & Tabellini, 2000; Hassler, Krusell, Storesletten & Zilibotti, 2005), public debt dynamics (Song, Storesletten & Zilibotti, 2012), effect of mass media (Strömberg, 2004) social security systems (Profeta, 2002; Gonzalez Eiras & Niepelt, 2008) and taxation (Hettich & Winer, 2005; Canegrati, 2007). Raphael Boleslavsky and Christopher Cotton (2015) show how the underlying uncertainty that candidates have about the preferences of voters may be the result of information revelation during campaigns, with more informative campaigns leading to greater ex ante uncertainty about election- day preferences. This in turn can increase policy divergence.
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Under EC law, a concentration exists when a... > "change of control on a lasting basis results from (a) the merger of two or > more previously independent undertakings... (b) the acquisition... if direct > or indirect control of the whole or parts of one or more other > undertakings." Art. 3(1), Regulation 139/2004, the European Community Merger > Regulation This usually means that one firm buys out the shares of another. The reasons for oversight of economic concentrations by the state are the same as the reasons to restrict firms who abuse a position of dominance, only that regulation of mergers and acquisitions attempts to deal with the problem before it arises, ex ante prevention of creating dominant firms.
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Predictive validity refers to the degree to which the operationalization can predict (or correlate with) other measures of the same construct that are measured at some time in the future. Again, with the selection test example, this would mean that the tests are administered to applicants, all applicants are hired, their performance is reviewed at a later time, and then their scores on the two measures are correlated. This is also when measurement predicts a relationship between what is measured and something else; predicting whether or not the other thing will happen in the future. High correlation between ex-ante predicted and ex-post actual outcomes is the strongest proof of validity.
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Marc Levinson, 2006, "Guide to Financial Markets", The Economist, page 24 The expected real interest rate is not a single number, as different investors have different expectations of future inflation. Since the inflation rate over the course of a loan is not known initially, volatility in inflation represents a risk to both the lender and the borrower. In the case of contracts stated in terms of the nominal interest rate, the real interest rate is known only at the end of the period of the loan, based on the realized inflation rate; this is called the ex-post real interest rate. Since the introduction of inflation-indexed bonds, ex-ante real interest rates have become observable.
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Monetary targeting essentially refers to fixing ex ante the most favorable target rate of growth of Money Supply as the foundation of the policy of monetary regulation. This was one of the most important recommendations due to the fact that price stability is influenced significantly by the growth of Money Supply, even though it is not the only factor; it can be affected by several other non monetary factors as well. The committee stated that an average increase of no more than 4% per year in the Wholesale Price Index should be treated as acceptable. However, annual inflation was 8%, 9% and 10% during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s(1990–1995) respectively.
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Crowdfunding is being explored as a potential funding mechanism for creative work such as blogging and journalism, music, independent film (see crowdfunded film), and for funding startup companies.TechCrunch "Sponsume lets projects get off the ground with Groupon-style group funding model"Crowdfunding Rules Could Create Mini-Disclosure Regime WSJ/CFO Journal, October 24, 2013 Emily Chasan Community music labels are usually for-profit organizations where "fans assume the traditional financier role of a record label for artists they believe in by funding the recording process".Kappel, Tim, "Ex Ante Crowdfunding and the Recording Industry: A Model for the U.S.?" in Loyola of Los Angeles Entertainment Law Review, Vol.29, Issue 3, p.
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The regulator can achieve this outcome either by ensuring that the regulated firm is compensated for uncertain events ex post or by ensuring the regulated firm receives sufficient compensation ex ante. As an example of the former, many regulators allow the regulated firm to "pass through" cost events which are largely or entirely outside their control (such as changes in other regulated charges, or changes in some labour rates). On occasion, it is not feasible to rely on ex post compensation for a risk faced by the regulated firm. This might arise, for example, where the regulated firm faces a risk that demand will drop (or will fail to materialise) in the future, limiting future earnings.
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Some factor other than the one attributed may give all the elements in that subset some kind of common property (or pair of common properties, when arguing for correlation). If the person attempts to account for the likelihood of finding some subset in the large data with some common property by a factor other than its actual cause, then that person is likely committing a Texas sharpshooter fallacy. The fallacy is characterized by a lack of a specific hypothesis prior to the gathering of data, or the formulation of a hypothesis only after data have already been gathered and examined. Thus, it typically does not apply if one had an ex ante, or prior, expectation of the particular relationship in question before examining the data.
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The study found that black defendants (81%) are significantly more likely than whites (66%) to be convicted when there are no potential black jurors in the pool. Even with only one black member of the jury pool, conviction rates are almost identical (71% for blacks and 73% for whites). While 64% of cases had at least one black potential juror in the pool, only 28% of all trials had one or more black members on the seated jury. "Whenever attorneys use peremptory challenges to strike black members of the pool ... they forgo the possibility of excluding another potential juror with a similar ex ante probability of convicting," and the composition of the jury indirectly reflects that of the juror pool. JournalistsResource.
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We are interested in a bidder's expected value from the auction (the expected value of the item, minus the expected price) conditioned on the assumption that the bidder wins the auction. It turns out that for a bidder's true estimate the expected value is negative, meaning that on average the winning bidder is overpaying. Savvy bidders will avoid the winner's curse by bid shading, or placing a bid that is below their ex ante estimation of the value of the item for sale—but equal to their ex post belief about the value of the item, given that they win the auction. The key point is that winning the auction is bad news about the value of the item for the winner.
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In the absence of direct externalities, simple contracts may solve the hold-up problem even when each party has private information about its valuation. Maskin and Tirole (1999) argue that complex contracts can solve the hold-up problem when there are ex ante indescribable contingencies, and Hart and Moore (1999) argue that the solution does not work when renegotiation cannot be ruled out. Taken together, whether or not suitable contracts can solve the hold-up problem is disputed in contract theory. In an experimental study, Hoppe and Schmitz (2011) found that option contracts may alleviate the hold-up problem even when renegotiation is possible, which may be explained by Hart and Moore's (2008) idea that contracts may serve as reference points.
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Bondholders typically value a risk-averse strategy since they do not benefit from higher profits. Stockholders on the other hand have an interest in taking on more risk. If a risky project succeeds shareholders will get all of the profits themselves, whereas if the projects fail the risk may be shared with the bondholder (although the bondholder has a higher priority for repayment in case of issuer bankruptcy than a shareholderStock Basics: An Investor's Guide Ally.com). Because bondholders know this, they often have costly and large ex-ante contracts in place prohibiting the management from taking on very risky projects that might arise, or they will simply raise the interest rate demanded, increasing the cost of capital for the company.
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Yet, it was evaluated to have delivered a significant positive impact to solve the problem with a broken monetary transaction mechanism, resulting in some more fairly priced interest rate levels for states under sovereign financial support programmes from EFSF/ESM. Because, as a member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Benoît Cœuré, described it > OMTs are an insurance device against redenomination risk, in the sense of > reducing the probability attached to worst-case scenarios. As for any > insurance mechanism, OMTs face a trade-off between insurance and incentives, > but their specific design was effective in aligning ex-ante incentives with > ex-post efficiency. At the end of 2014, the group of states eligible to receive OMT support were only Portugal and Ireland.
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Furthering the central theme of Max Weber's seminal book The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, Brat argues in his 2004 paper Economic Growth and Institutions: The Rise and Fall of the Protestant Ethic? that "institutions such as religion, democracy and government anti-diversion policies all significantly enhance a country's long-run economic performance," and concludes that "the religion variable may be the strongest ex ante, exogenous institutional variable in the literature." In a paper titled Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Bernanke Seriously, Brat criticized Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, asserting that Bernanke's work on economic growth overlooks religious institutions—in particular Protestant—in a country's economic growth, and that while savings rates, population growth, and human capital accumulation help drive economic growth, the larger factor is "the Protestant religious establishment", which Bernanke ignores.
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The problem in real life is that nobody knows ex ante the most valued use of a resource, and also that there exist costs involving the reallocation of resources by government. Another, more refined, normative conclusion also often discussed in law and economics is that government should create institutions that minimize transaction costs, so as to allow misallocations of resources to be corrected as cheaply as possible. When faced with an externality, the same efficient outcome can be reached without any government intervention as long as the following assumptions hold: # Property rights must be clearly defined # There must be little to no transactions costs # (Following 2.) There must be few affected parties (or else the transactions costs of organizing them gets to be too great). # There must be no wealth effects.
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Before the crisis occurs (ex ante), policy-makers would like to convince banks that they will not bail them out in the event of a crisis so that banks do not adopt a fragile capital structure. However, if policy-makers announce that they will not bail out banks in the event of a crisis, bankers will not believe them because they rationally anticipate that policy-makers will in fact bail them out in the event of a crisis. Policy-makers stated policy of no bailouts in the event of a crisis is not credible, so in the absence of a commitment device banks will take on excess risk. Moreover, some economists have argued that the presence of bailouts will force banks to take on more risk than they would like.
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Eddie Murray, the all-time leader in games played as a first baseman. Games played (most often abbreviated as G or GP) is a statistic used in team sports to indicate the total number of games in which a player has participated (in any capacity); the statistic is generally applied irrespective of whatever portion of the game is contested. In baseball, the statistic applies also to players who, prior to a game, are included on a starting lineup card or are announced as ex ante substitutes, whether or not they play,Section 20 of the official scorer guidelines although, in Major League Baseball, the application of this statistic does not extend to consecutive games played streaks. A starting pitcher, then, may be credited with a game played even as he is not credited with a game started or an inning pitched.
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The program has clearly contributed to improvements in Brazil's fight against poverty, according to research promoted by some universities and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). An ex ante econometric evaluation of Bolsa Escola found significant effects on both school attendance rates and the number of children involved in child labor. The World Bank, which provided a loan to assist the Brazilian government in managing the Bolsa Família Program, declares that "Although the program is relatively young, some results are already apparent: (...) contributions to improved education outcomes, and impacts on children’s growth, food consumption, and diet quality". A study by the UNDP's International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth found that over 80% of the Bolsa Familia benefits go to families in poverty (making under half the minimum wage per capita), thus most of the benefits go to the poor.
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It used to be that the common law recognized constraints on the total capacity of the corporation. If a director or employee acted beyond the purposes or powers of the corporation (ultra vires), any contract would be ex ante void and unenforceable. This rule was abandoned in the earlier 20th century,See RS Stevens, 'A Proposal as to the Codification and Restatement of the Ultra Vires Doctrine' (1927) 36(3) Yale Law Journal 297 and MA Schaeftler, 'Ultra Vires – Ultra Useless: The Myth of State Interest in Ultra Vires Acts of Business Corporations' (1983–1984) Journal of Corporation Law 81 and today corporations generally have unlimited capacity and purposes.Revised MBCA §3.01(a) presumption that a corporation's purpose is to 'engage in any lawful business unless a more limited purpose is set forth in the articles of incorporation.
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However, in contrast to the soft bullet structure, the date at which investors can expect the outstanding claims to be serviced cannot be determined ex ante. Rather, in the worst-case scenario, they can only be determined upon maturity of the assets with the longest term. No uniform trigger events have so far become established on the market to trigger an extension period (beyond the repayment date originally agreed under a soft bullet or CPT structures). Examples of possible triggers within the soft bullet and CPT structures include (i) the issuer’s insolvency and postponement of redemption to a later repayment date by an independent trustee or (ii) the postponement of the original repayment date by the issuer. If investors’ claims can be serviced when they originally fall due, there are no differences between the three payment structures as far as investors are concerned.
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Ivan Rodríguez, the all-time leader in games played as a catcher. Games played (most often abbreviated as G or GP) is a statistic used in team sports to indicate the total number of games in which a player has participated (in any capacity); the statistic is generally applied irrespective of whatever portion of the game is contested. In baseball, the statistic applies also to players who, prior to a game, are included on a starting lineup card or are announced as ex ante substitutes, whether or not they play,Section 20 of the official scorer guidelines although, in Major League Baseball, the application of this statistic does not extend to consecutive games played streaks. A starting pitcher, then, may be credited with a game played even as he is not credited with a game started or an inning pitched.
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A merger or acquisition involves, from a competition law perspective, the concentration of economic power in the hands of fewer than before.Under EC law, a concentration is where a "change of control on a lasting basis results from (a) the merger of two or more previously independent undertakings... (b) the acquisition... if direct or indirect control of the whole or parts of one or more other undertakings". Art. 3(1), Regulation 139/2004, the European Community Merger Regulation This usually means that one firm buys out the shares of another. The reasons for oversight of economic concentrations by the state are the same as the reasons to restrict firms who abuse a position of dominance, only that regulation of mergers and acquisitions attempts to deal with the problem before it arises, ex ante prevention of market dominance.
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The rationale for watta satta custom has been theorized as an environment with generally low and uncertain incomes, weak or uncertain legal institutions of the state, watta satta may be the most effective means available to the poor to prevent marital discord, divorces and domestic abuse. It enables a form of social pressure and reciprocity, wherein a man who abuses his wife is expected to be deterred by the possibility that his own sister will suffer from similar or more severe retaliation by the brother of his wife. Thus, watta satta, in theory, provides a non-institutional ex-ante provisions to reflect the interests of the wife and her family in deterring or mitigating ex-post malfeasance on the part of the husband. In practice, in addition to peace in two families, extreme forms of escalating, retaliatory domestic violence have been observed.
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Eddie Collins, the all-time leader in games played as a second baseman. Games played (most often abbreviated as G or GP) is a statistic used in team sports to indicate the total number of games in which a player has participated (in any capacity); the statistic is generally applied irrespective of whatever portion of the game is contested. In baseball, the statistic applies also to players who, prior to a game, are included on a starting lineup card or are announced as ex ante substitutes, whether or not they play,Section 20 of the official scorer guidelines although, in Major League Baseball, the application of this statistic does not extend to consecutive games played streaks. A starting pitcher, then, may be credited with a game played even as he is not credited with a game started or an inning pitched.
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The theorem aims to justify a puzzling aspect of mixed strategy Nash equilibria: that each player is wholly indifferent amongst each of the actions he puts non-zero weight on, yet he mixes them so as to make every other player also indifferent. The mixed strategy equilibria are explained as being the limit of pure strategy equilibria for a disturbed game of incomplete information in which the payoffs of each player are known to themselves but not their opponents. The idea is that the predicted mixed strategy of the original game emerge as ever improving approximations of a game that is not observed by the theorist who designed the original, idealized game. The apparently mixed nature of the strategy is actually just the result of each player playing a pure strategy with threshold values that depend on the ex-ante distribution over the continuum of payoffs that a player can have.
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Subjectivity is related to judgement based on a supervisor's subjective impressions and opinions, which can be expressed through the use of subjective performance measures, ex post flexibility in the weighting of objective performance measures, or ex post discretional adjustment, all of which are based on factors other than performance measures specified ex ante. Subjective performance evaluation allows the use of a subtler, more balanced assessment of employee performance, and is typically used for more complex jobs where comprehensive objective measures are difficult to specify and/or measure. Whilst often the only feasible method, the attendant problems with subjective performance evaluation have resulted in a variety of incentive structures and supervisory schemes. One problem, for example, is that supervisors may under-report performance in order to save on wages, if they are in some way residual claimants, or perhaps rewarded on the basis of cost savings.
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Pete Rose, the all-time leader in games played Games played (most often abbreviated as G or GP) is a statistic used in team sports to indicate the total number of games in which a player has participated (in any capacity); the statistic is generally applied irrespective of whatever portion of the game is contested. In baseball, the statistic applies also to players who, prior to a game, are included on a starting lineup card or are announced as ex ante substitutes, whether or not they play,Section 20 of the official scorer guidelines although, in Major League Baseball, the application of this statistic does not extend to consecutive games played streaks. A starting pitcher, then, may be credited with a game played even as he is not credited with a game started or an inning pitched. Ty Cobb was the first player to reach 3,000 games played.
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Later, however, he accused the movement of ignoring the problem of distribution of wealth in its obsession with economic growth, of using faulty statistics and substituting Greek letters for missing data in its formulas and of flouting logic. He wrote, "Correlations are not explanations and besides, they can be as spurious as the high correlation in Finland between foxes killed and divorces." Professor Myrdal was an early supporter of the theses of John Maynard Keynes, although he maintained that the basic idea of adjusting national budgets to slow or speed an economy was first developed by him and articulated in his book Monetary Economics, published in 1932, four years prior to Keynes' General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. William Barber's comment upon Myrdal's work on monetary theory goes like this: Economist G. L. S. Shackle claimed the importance of Gunnar Myrdal's analysis by which saving and investment are allowed to adjust ex ante to each other.
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A principal-agent relationship is one that agent acts on behalf of the principal. By the reason of different individual objectives, the principle demands the disclosure of information about effort and outcome to assure the agent does not act purely in their own interest. The application of transparency underlying the relationship between employer and employee, investor and firm (owner and manager) or the public and the government has two main objectives: predictability and accountability. Based on information about policy choices (“effort”) and the result (“outcome”) of the government’s (agent’s) decisions the public (”principal“) decides whether to keep or remove them from office. In public policy area the stress is on the “ex-post transparency” in the way that it improves the electorate’s ability to hold the government accountable. “Ex-ante” transparency is not very effective in assessing the government’s actions because the electorate is not familiar with what the optimal policy decisions should be.
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A final moment of preeminence in Tzigara's career occurred during World War II. Initially, with war looming, Chief of the Romanian General Staff Florea Țenescu tasked Tzigara with drafting an Ex-ante International Convention Project for the Protection of Monuments and Works of Art, which was never put into motion. In summer 1940, during a period when Carol II was trying to calm tensions between Romania and Nazi Germany, Tzigara, Ion Nistor, Grigore Antipa, Ion Sân-Giorgiu and other academics greeted a Nazi visitor, scholar Herbert Cysarz.Frank-Rutger Hausmann, »Auch im Krieg schweigen die Musen nicht«: die Deutschen Wissenschaftlichen Institute im Zweiten Weltkrieg, Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht, Göttingen, 2001, p.75-76. After 1940, Romania ousted Carol II's National Renaissance Front government, replacing it with an openly fascist, pro-Axis regime, the National Legionary State. In parallel, Tzigara managed to gather political support for terminating Nicolae Ghica-Budești's contract and, in 1941, hired architect Gheorghe Ionescu to finalize the Museum's construction.
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There exists scope for government policy to alleviate a liquidity crunch, by absorbing less liquid assets and in turn providing the private sector with more liquid government – backed assets, through the following channels: Pre-emptive or ex- ante policy: Imposition of minimum equity-to-capital requirements or ceilings on debt-to-equity ratio on financial institutions other than commercial banks would lead to more resilient balance sheets. In the context of the Diamond–Dybvig model, an example of a demand deposit contract that mitigates banks' vulnerability to bank runs, while allowing them to be providers of liquidity and optimal risk sharing, is one that entails suspension of convertibility when there are too many withdrawals. For instance, consider a contract which is identical to the pure demand deposit contract, except that it states that a depositor will not receive anything on a given date if he attempts to prematurely withdraw, after a certain fraction of the bank's total deposits have been withdrawn. Such a contract has a unique Nash equilibrium which is stable and achieves optimal risk sharing.
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They also claimed that the en banc review of the case was tainted because it was delayed until two conservative judges of the Sixth Circuit had retired, giving the court a liberal majority. Judge Danny Julian Boggs took the unprecedented step of filing a "Procedural Appendix" as part of his dissent from Grutter, in which he explicitly accused Martin and the rest of the majority of improperly tampering with the case. The majority took umbrage with Judge Boggs' decision to publish this appendix, with Judge Karen Nelson Moore noting that Boggs had not raised any complaint with the composition of the en banc court when the en banc petition was circulated or when the case was argued before the en banc court, suggesting that Boggs's dispute was with the outcome of the case, rather than the procedures of the court. However, such a complaint could have been characterized as an ex ante attempt to influence the outcome of the case by manipulating the composition of the en banc panel, the very problem Boggs alleged.
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