Obviously trying to measure the impact of a covert action program is difficult and full of uncertainties, but intelligence analysts are trained to deal with uncertainty, to develop estimates broad enough to embody the uncertainty, and to use estimative language to convey that uncertainty to the customer.
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Some intelligence and policy failures appear to be related to the imprecise use of estimative words.
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Other types of intelligence analysis include current intelligence, estimative intelligence, scientific and technical intelligence, counterintelligence, biographic intelligence, medical intelligence, domestic intelligence, and economic intelligence.
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Cover of a National Intelligence Estimate Analytic confidence is a rating employed by intelligence analysts to convey doubt to decision makers about a statement of estimative probability. The need for analytic confidence ratings arise from analysts' imperfect knowledge of a conceptual model. An analytic confidence rating pairs with a statement using a word of estimative probability to form a complete analytic statement. Scientific methods for determining analytic confidence remain in infancy.
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There is controversy over the US Office of Special Plans and whether it bypassed the intelligence community cross-checking process. Winston Churchill had his own intelligence advisor, Sir Desmond Morton, who might bypass the WWII estimative process. Estimative intelligence helps policymakers to think strategically about long-term threats by discussing the implications of a range of possible outcomes and alternative scenarios. They are not strictly operational, but fall into a special analysis and dissemination category because they usually involve multi-agency coordination.
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On August 1, 1870, the Army of the Rhine was constituted of seven Army Corps and of artillery and reserve cavalry. Lieutenant-colonel Rousset tendered an estimative decomposition by grand units:In Histoire générale de la guerre franco allemande - 1870–1871, Tome 1, pages 395–405.
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Senior civilian and military policymakers, including congressional leaders, typically request NIEs. Before a NIE is drafted, the relevant National Intelligence Officer (NIO) produces a concept paper or 'terms of reference' (TOR) and circulates it throughout the IC for comment. The TOR defines the key estimative questions, determines drafting responsibilities, and sets the drafting and publication schedule. Several IC analysts from different agencies produce the initial text of the estimate.
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469 Total requirements to run the insurgency in the south were relatively small compared to the needs of US opponents, well below port and rail capacity. One US Intelligence estimate puts external communist supply requirements for Communist forces in South Vietnam at approximately 100 tons per day- 15 tons via the DMV, 35 tons from Cambodia and 50 tons from Laos.Gordon et al. 2005. Estimative products on Vietnam, 1948–1975.
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Civil War Uniforms, 1895 Basic intelligence is reference documents that are produced by an intelligence organization about a foreign country, organization or issue by an intelligence organization. It contains information that is likely to be needed by many consumers for many purposes. Basic intelligence is one of the older intelligence types and predates the formal definition. It is encyclopedic in nature as opposed to being estimative or technical intelligence analysis.
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Because of strict secrecy it is very difficult to determine the exact size and composition of China's nuclear forces. Estimates vary over time. Several declassified U.S. government reports give historical estimates. The 1984 Defense Intelligence Agency's Defense Estimative Brief estimates the Chinese nuclear stockpile as consisting of between 150 and 160 warheads. A 1993 United States National Security Council report estimated that China's nuclear deterrent force relied on 60 to 70 nuclear armed ballistic missiles.
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The Soviet authorities targeted several socio-economic groups due to their economic situation, political views, or ties to the former regime. They were deported to or resettled in Siberia and northern Kazakhstan; some were imprisoned or executed. According to a report by the Presidential Commission for the Study of the Communist Dictatorship in Romania, no less than 86,604 people were arrested and deported in 1940 and 1941 alone, comparable to the estimative number of 90,000 repressed put forward by Russian historians.
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Words of estimative probability (WEP or WEPs) are terms used by intelligence analysts in the production of analytic reports to convey the likelihood of a future event occurring. A well-chosen WEP gives a decision maker a clear and unambiguous estimate upon which to base a decision. Ineffective WEPs are vague or misleading about the likelihood of an event. An ineffective WEP places the decision maker in the role of the analyst, increasing the likelihood of poor or snap decision making.
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A visual representation of the Peterson Table Mercyhurst College students use the Peterson Table of Analytic Confidence Assessment to determine the level of analytic confidence in their estimative statements. The table outlines certain areas in the intelligence cycle important to determining analytic confidence. The key areas of the table include the use of a structured method, overall source reliability, source corroboration and agreement, level of expertise on the subject or topic, amount of peer collaboration, task complexity, and time pressure.
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NIEs are considered to be "estimative" products, in that they present what intelligence analysts estimate may be the course of future events. Coordination of NIEs involves not only trying to resolve any inter-agency differences, but also assigning confidence levels to the key judgments and rigorously evaluating the sourcing for them. Each NIE is reviewed and approved for dissemination by the National Intelligence Board (NIB), which comprises the DNI and other senior leaders within the Intelligence Community. National Intelligence Estimates were first produced in 1950 by the Office of National Estimates.
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Until John F. Kennedy was briefed by excellent briefers, such as Dino Brugioni, he probably did not understand the capabilities of IMINT. Frequently, the intelligence service will organize the production process and its output to mirror the customer organization. Government production by the single-source intelligence agencies is largely organized geographically or topically, to meet the needs of all- source country, region, or topic analysts in the finished-intelligence producing agencies. In terms of intended use by the customer, both business and government producers may generate intelligence to be applied in the current, estimative, operational, research, science and technology, or warning context.
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The alert was given by military personnel of the Portuguese Guarda Nacional Republicana (National Republican Guard), who were operating on EN234, near the crash site. Although the rescue services arrived only a few minutes after the accident, the situation there was chaotic, with fires on the trains and forest around, many people hurt, and several passengers in panic. It is estimated that, in this accident, some 150 people have perished, though the circumstances of the crash and the lack of control of the number of passengers in both services prevent an exact counting of the number of deadly victims. The official estimative points to 49 dead, from which only 14 were identified, with still 64 passengers officially missing.
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His first permanent assignment was in 1970 with the newly formed Directorate of Estimates (DE). During a succession of progressively responsible assignments in DE, Nagy focused on Soviet strategic nuclear and space forces and on policy and doctrinal issues; he was the principal drafter of numerous departmental and national estimates. His service with DE culminated in being selected twice by the Director of Central Intelligence’s National Intelligence Officer for Strategic Programs as manager of the annual National Intelligence Estimate for Soviet Strategic Nuclear Forces. In late 1980, Nagy became a DIA executive and was selected to be the first deputy vice director for overall management of program development for estimative, basic, and scientific and technical intelligence production.
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The Three Hundred Tang Poems () is an anthology of poems from the Chinese Tang dynasty (618–907) first compiled around 1763 by Sun Zhu (1722–1778Yu, 64–65), the Qing Dynasty scholar, also known as Hengtang Tuishi (蘅塘退士 "Retired Master of Hengtang"). Various later editions also exist. All editions contain slightly more than 300 total poems: in this case, three hundred means not exactly 300 but refers to an estimative quantification; the ten, twenty, or more extra poems represent a sort of a good luck bonus,Rexroth, xvi analogous to the "baker's dozen" in the West. Even more, the number 300 (or more exactly 305) was a classic number for a poetry collection due to the influence of the Classic of Poetry (Shijing 詩經), which was generally known as The Three Hundred Poems.
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According to expert Robert Offergeld, after more than 2.000 copies sold in Paris alone, the publishing company, which held the rights to the piece, earned 250,000 Francs in sales before deciding to sell it to another for more 25,000 francs in profits. And since unlicensed copies abounded in Leipzig, London, Berlin, Brussels and Milan, this amount was just a partial estimative of the impact that it aroused on the musical scene of the time."'Benacci', a publisher of Lyon who came to Paris expressly to induce me to sell him a manuscript... offered 10,000 francs for the copyright of the Bamboula and Bananier, notwithstanding more than 2,000 copies of the latter had been sold here: my publishers, the 'Escudiers', answered: If you were to offer us 60,000, we should refuse it." (Gottschalk, in a letter to his father dated May 1850) Source: The last allotment received by Gottschalk from the publisher 'Escudiers' for Le Bananier was so large that he came to think about pushing all his pupils, with the exception of the best ones, over to other teachers at the conservatoire on his return to Paris from Switzerland.
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