By averaging the yield over ten years, they work out the cyclically-adjusted total yield (CATY) and compare it with the cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE), which averages corporate profits.
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New rules seek to calculate "structural", ie, cyclically adjusted, deficits.
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Compared with 1999, a cyclically neutral year, he sees many differences.
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A thrumming U.S. economy has more cyclically geared investments in fashion.
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What is CAPE, or the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, exactly?
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And the cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio shows valuations are well above average.
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Source: MFEA Historically, active and passive product performance swings back and forth cyclically.
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It's possible, for example, that old cyclically adjusted PE ratios are no longer valid.
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Into cyclically economic risk do you want to be long bonds or short bonds?
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Low funding costs and cyclically low loan impairment charges have also helped support operating profitability.
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Unemployment is where the difference made to citizens' lives, both cyclically and structurally, can be larger.
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More worrisome is another well-known valuation method called the "cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio" (CAPE).
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FEW measures of stockmarket valuation are as controversial as the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, or CAPE.
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Stock prices are high: The cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio is at the third-highest since 1880.
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"Historically, these signs have marked the top, either cyclically or securely, for an asset class," said ARK Invest.
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In fact, if anything, it reifies rather than deconstructs the societal factors that cyclically make America evil again.
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Valuations are actually about 20 percent below long-term averages, on a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio.
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"It repeats cyclically in a way that feels always rolling forward, without a clear beginning or end," Reed says.
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The cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, as calculated by Robert Shiller of Yale, is double its long-term average.
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The cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio (CAPE) is near 30, compared with a recent average of about 23.
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"We shouldn't confuse where the economy is cyclically with longer-term structural changes to the labor market," said Wartzman.
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The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio is 25, and on a cyclically adjusted basis is higher still.
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Take those returns away and US equities would look reasonably priced under Robert Shiller's cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio methodology.
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Cyclically, the 1981 and 2001 tax cuts went into effect in years when some short-term fiscal expansion was appropriate.
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In the geriatric ward of the new hospital, they tetherballed around their normal values, approaching and overshooting their limits cyclically.
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Technology, industrials, energy and financials are outperforming lately — the cyclically attuned groups that a bull would want to see lead.
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"Ultimately, we are in an environment that is cyclically likely to turn very favorable for the Canadian dollar," Savary said.
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The cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (which averages profits over ten years) is 33.4, compared with the historical average of 16.8.
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So is the S&P Invesco 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV), which contains more stable companies rather than cyclically geared ones.
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When market forces cyclically adjust again, they will be having congressional hearings about how big the mistake was to do this.
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The falling budget deficit reflects the economic rebound and very low funding costs, with no improvement in the cyclically adjusted balance.
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Shiller was referring to the valuations measured by the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (or CAPE) ratio he developed with John Campbell.
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And yet, France and Italy in particular must figure that out because they are — cyclically and structurally — in a tight spot.
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My emotions were an M.C. Escher rollercoaster that cyclically went sort of up but mostly down while remaining flat and low.
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Certain things people do cyclically or weekly or at a specific time and it's helpful to know how this ebbs and flows.
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The cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (or CAPE), which averages profits over ten years, is 28.7, its highest level since April 2002.
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It refers to the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio compiled by Robert Shiller of Yale University, which averages profits over ten years.
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Stare long enough, allowing your eyes to follow each labyrinthine shape—they lead, cyclically, right back into themselves—and you'll become hypnotized.
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It came at a bad time for China, cyclically it came at a bad time, but I think the tariffs really hurt.
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BEIJING (Reuters) - The U.S. labor market is cyclically strong, despite low participation, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Monday.
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They carry lower valuations, and "cyclically the U.S. is probably further along," said Martin Schulz, manager of the PNC International Equity fund.
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Messrs Stock and Watson are even able to separate inflation into an index that is "cyclically sensitive" and one that is not.
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And the market really wasn't much higher than it is now in terms of my CAPE [cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings] ratio.
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Mr. Trump and the Congressional leadership have an opportunity to redesign a supportive fiscal policy, without destabilizing cyclically and structurally fragile public finances.
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The cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, which averages profits over ten years, is just under 22017, according to Robert Shiller of Yale University.
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The overall market is on a cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio of 30—a level surpassed only in 1929 and the late 1990s.
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The American stockmarket is on a cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio of 30—a level surpassed only in 1929 and the late 1990s.
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American equities are on a cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio of 31, according to the website of Robert Shiller, a previous Nobel winner.
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It is doubtful that the equity market would cyclically peak before the retail-investor enthusiasm for stocks had reached a more fevered pitch.
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The cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio is 31.42; it was last higher during the dot-com collapse that began in the late 1990s.
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Matters of the heart are cyclically worried and fought over during breaks in the alley behind the restaurant, not far from the Dumpsters.
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Measures of valuation like the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio show that stocks are as expensive as they were during the dotcom bubble.
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Plus, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, created by Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller, is near the highest since 2000 dot-com bubble.
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One valuation approach, often referred to in this column, is the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, or CAPE, which averages profits over ten years.
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Very often, they hope that a benchmark of fair value, such as the cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio, or CAPE, will be their guide.
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The Shiller valuation level, whose formal name is the Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, has captured considerable attention lately as the bull market continues.
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Overall, recent general government deficit reduction has been driven by economic recovery and low funding costs, with no improvement in the cyclically adjusted balance.
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At the banking conference, Vice Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara said the government will use the state budget "counter cyclically" to maintain economic growth momentum.
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"But the price-earnings ratio that I look at cyclically, the adjusted price-earnings ratio, is still overextended by any standard of the imagination."
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"These benefits are threatened by the possible presence of natural disasters such as hurricanes and storms that cyclically put us in risk," said Gonzalez.
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They are very high, particularly when using the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings ratio, or C.A.P.E., which I defined almost thirty years ago with Prof.
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Second, manufacturing tends to be cyclically sensitive; as a result, factory production is thought by many to turn ahead of a broader economic slowdown.
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The "cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio" (CAPE) is calculated using price divided by the index's average historical 10-year earnings, adjusted for inflation.
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He said valuations, such as the Schiller cyclically adjusted P/E are the highest since the tech bubble of 2000, and also of 1929.
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In a chart, they point out that the S&P's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) is currently around its highest historical levels.
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The cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio of the American market (which averages profits over 10 years) is 28.7, compared with a historic average of 16.7.
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In May 2007 the cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE), a measure that averages profits over ten years, was 27.6 for American equities (see chart).
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Even when Latshaw does make a deal, not all the workers it laid off want to return to a business that is so cyclically volatile.
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The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio — which was created by Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller — currently sits near its dot-com bubble high.
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Sadly, that is not what is happening in the euro area, but the ECB is putting up a fight to offset cyclically ill-advised fiscal restraints.
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One of the most important factors for overall growth, Doll said, is maintaining global trade, because growth enables investors to "own cheaper, more cyclically oriented" stocks.
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First, there is no "business cycle" or "stimulus" argument for another round of tax cuts since the unemployment rate is already cyclically low, at around 4.3%.
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"Part of the industry's challenge being cyclically driven as it is, is overcapacity," Michael DiCecco, the president of Huntington Bank's asset-finance sector, told Business Insider.
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They include the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, which takes the price of the S&P 500 and divides it by ten years worth of earnings.
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Separately, J.P. Morgan's technical analyst Jason Hunter said the semiconductor stocks are the first of the cyclically sensitive groups he follows to break through key pattern resistance.
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"Cyclically, the financial system and the economy have spent a long time climbing out of the deep hole torn by the crisis and Great Recession," he wrote.
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The work moves cyclically, like wrestling — the most masculine sport in Iran — in which men "perform" in a circle, and women are not allowed to take part.
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"We cyclically advise contrarian bears to position for 'peak profit, peak policy stimulus' theme via long gold, short US tech," they wrote in a note to clients.
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In later plague outbreaks, which occur cyclically, no colony was completely spared, but dogs in vaccinated colonies were nearly twice as likely to survive, the scientists found.
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"This legend — which tends to have some truth, even if it&aposs from the past — cyclically feeds on the disagreements of political parties when they lose," Rivera said.
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But with the market priced on a cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio of 28.3, according to Robert Shiller of Yale, a lot of good news is priced in.
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" The release celebrates the Berlin imprint's five-year anniversary, and for the occasion Landberg has composed a ruminative work that cyclically melts in and out of focus. "Buchla.
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In the meantime, equities trade on a cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (which averages profits over the past ten years) of 27.3, according to Robert Shiller of Yale University.
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At recent levels in excess of 30, the U.S. stock market's cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio (CAPE), for example, has exceeded its post-1982 average by almost 25 percent.
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Being the baddest wasn't just something you claimed, but rather a prize to earn and then defend constantly, and almost cyclically, amid a fiercely competitive field on two coasts.
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"Part of the industry&aposs challenge, being cyclically driven as it is, is overcapacity," Michael DiCecco, the president of Huntington Bank&aposs asset-finance sector, previously told Business Insider.
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"Generally, at times like this historically the UK equity market has been reasonably defensive ... the nature of the sector weightings tend to be a bit less cyclically-exposed," Williams added.
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Among the most conservative – some would say punitive – methods, is Robert Shiller's Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings ratio, based on the past 10 years' reported earnings for the S&P 500.
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The chart shows the average of four valuation measures — two P/E ratios (cyclically adjusted), a trend regression analysis, and the "Q ratio," which is a measure of replacement value.
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But with the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio on the American stockmarket around twice its long-term average, equities are vulnerable to any kind of bad news. Economist.com/blogs/buttonwood
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The cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE), as calculated by Robert Shiller of Yale University, averages profits over ten years and is used by many as an important valuation indicator.
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The government's new fiscal objectives are for cyclically-adjusted public sector net borrowing to be under 103% of GDP, and for public sector indebtedness to be falling, by FY20/21.
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This can be true cyclically, as businesses need to periodically evaluate their costs to ensure that they are in line with the local marketplace and the revenue of the organization.
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Further down the road, a tightly coordinated fiscal policy, or, ideally, a fiscal union will become necessary to run a cyclically appropriate policy mix for the Eurozone as a whole.
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The same goes for Buffett's reportedly preferred gauge, equity market cap-to-gross national product, and the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, created by Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller.
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SAIRA MALIK: So, we started the Platinum Portfolio this year with a bit more of a cyclical bias, because we did see that disconnect between-- cyclically priced stocks, versus momentum stocks.
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It may look disturbing that America's cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio has spent most of the past two years above 30, a level that was last breached during the dotcom boom.
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That was especially so since American shares are trading on a cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio of 29, a level exceeded only in the booms of the late 1920s and 1990s.
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Citigroup expects to see investors dump cyclically oriented stocks in an erroneous move that will come even as industrial production improves and the Brexit spillover effects into the U.S. are limited.
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Particularly low-valued markets like those of Brazil and Russia, with low cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratios, are good buys, according to Meb Faber, chief investment officer of Cambria Investment Management.
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A supermoon, as you may know, is what we call it when the Moon's cyclically changing orbit brings it closest to Earth, making it appear slightly larger in the night sky.
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We expect adequate and consistent performance in 2016, supporting the bank's moderate profitability despite our expectation of a modest rise in loan impairment charges from their cyclically low levels in 2015.
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His predecessor, George Osborne, pencilled in a reduction in the cyclically adjusted budget deficit in 2017 of about 1% of GDP, a sharp contraction even by the standards of recent years.
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"If you look underneath the covers at how the rotation is taking place from sector and style perspective, it's moved from cyclically sensitive groups into more defensive-oriented stocks," Hunter said.
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So I think the philosophy of trying to stimulate the economy with a more Republican, conservative kind of point of view, cyclically it's time to maybe go back to some of that.
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And indeed, GMO as an experiment replaced FOMC day returns with a typical S&P day and then worked out what they call a Monetary Policy-Adjusted Cyclically Adjusted Price-Equity Ratio.
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While aggressive, cyclically geared groups such as semiconductors have set the pace for the rally, there has also been a strong bid for steadier yield-centric sectors over the past three months.
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Getting to the root of the revenue multiple With a regular drumbeat of news covering the cyclically high prices in the stock market, valuation concerns are top of mind for many investors.
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"I think the underappreciated point for us is the market is coming off cyclically oversold levels." in the past 52 weeks, the S&P has moved higher by just 2.75%, he added.
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The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio developed by economist Robert Shiller, which smooths out the profit for S&P 500 constituents over a decade, has been running at over 30 times.
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The bigger picture is of a cyclically tightening oil market but with considerable uncertainty about how far and how quickly U.S. shale producers will dampen any further price increases by boosting their production.
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Making this surplus all the more troubling is the fact that it is occurring at a time when the German economy is cyclically in a very much stronger position than its European partners.
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The Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings ratio — often referred to as the "Shiller CAPE" or "Shiller PE" — looks at valuations over a 303-year period to smooth for fluctuations in the business cycle.
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On a cyclically adjusted basis (averaging profits over ten years), the ratio of the American market to earnings is as high as it was in the bubble periods of the late 1920s and 1990s.
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And the horse is the European Central Bank (ECB), whose trillions of free euros are eliciting widely different responses in segments of a structurally and cyclically uncoordinated economic space it is supposed to manage.
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VR The VR affirmation reflects HNB's stable and moderate risk profile and strengthened capitalisation and loan-loss reserves; these will help absorb cyclically rising credit costs in a slowing economy in Taiwan and China.
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"There is an expectation that the dollar is expected to rally more cyclically because of all the things coming out of the administration," Lee said, citing possible tax reform under U.S. President Donald Trump.
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Some risk could stem from the fast loan book growth over the past four years, although CBL's business model implies growing counter-cyclically, to benefit during periods of low credit supply in the market.
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James Andrew, head of investment management for Redmayne Bentley, said that the S&P500 cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, known as CAPE or the Shiller PE, was at 30 times its historical average.
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If this cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE) is higher than its long-run mark, that suggests that either prices must fall or earnings must rise for the index's valuation to return to normal levels.
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Profitability remains the key challenge but we expect that the focus on costs and non-interest income sources, as well as cyclically very low loan impairment charges, will partly offset further pressures on interest margins.
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In a late-cycle economic environment, Hartford said, "until there's confidence that growth rates are going to bottom and re-accelerate, transport stocks and cyclically sensitive stocks in general" tend to lag the broader market.
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The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio kept by Yale economics professor Robert Shiller is at levels topped only by the peaks before the dotcom bubble burst in 2000 and the Great Crash in 1929.
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Firms were hurt by trade frictions, rain and high temperatures in July, which is also a cyclically slow season for some sectors, said statistics bureau official Zhao Qinghe in a statement released with the data.
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But the equity markets have clearly been bullish enough to drive the Shiller CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) — a measure of how expensive stocks are compared with underlying company earnings — to nearly 33.
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The overall picture is one in which the most cyclically volatile parts of the economy are already contracting, and arguably in recession, while the more stable parts of the economy show continued but slowing growth.
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We are neutral on U.S. stocks and modestly overweight EAFE (developed markets outside the U.S. and Canada), where we believe valuations are better and earnings still cyclically depressed and thus have more room to run.
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The data is fairly decisive – US stocks selling at a high cyclically adjusted price earnings (CAPE) ratio do not historically offer the same upside on a forward basis that stocks selling at a low CAPE do.
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Shiller's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, which compares the current value of equities to inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years, is at levels not seen except for the years surrounding 1929 and 2000.
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Goldman analysts said they remained "cyclically bullish within a structurally bearish framework," noting that global inventories were drawing, demand is high, OPEC could still make deeper cuts and U.S. producers could be discouraged by rising costs.
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Economist Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, or CAPE, which smooths the S&P 210 Index PE ratio over the prior 22019 years, is running above 230 times based on data for November 2018.
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These locations are then fed back to drivers to inform their driving routine, and the process continues cyclically to try to achieve the best possible results regardless of time of day, weather conditions or other variables.
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The Yale economist used his cyclically adjusted price-earnings (or CAPE) ratio to determine valuation — noting that it is at a high level now and shows that the U.S. stock market is the world's most expensive.
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"We have to at least entertain the notion that an economy that was already in pretty solid shape cyclically is picking up momentum heading into the fall," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities.
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The CAPE ratio (cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio), a widely followed measure designed by Yale economist Robert Shiller that compares stock prices to corporate earnings, is currently at about 32, or double its historical median of 16.
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Product and Customer Concentration: ASML's focus on one cyclically exposed, technology-driven product segment, with high R&D costs, supplied to few large semiconductor manufacturers raises the company's operating risk and is a constraint on the ratings.
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This is true, although of course, bond yields have been at historical lows for some time, and the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio of US equities (currently 27) has been well above the historic average since 2009.
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RECESSION RISK The overall picture is one in which the most cyclically volatile parts of the economy are already contracting, and arguably in recession, while the more stable parts of the economy show continued but slowing growth.
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But at a second glance, Brzeski added, the figures provided further evidence that a wage-price-spiral was hardly noticeable even in Germany, which he described as the cyclically most advanced economy of the 19-member bloc.
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At the start of 1985 American shares traded on a cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (a figure which averages profits over ten years) of ten; now the ratio is over 31, according to Robert Shiller of Yale University.
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There are sure to be cyclically and politically induced bumps along the way, but we would view near-term pullbacks as buying opportunities, with the longer-term structural supports for the tech sector making it worth the ride.
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Analysts have been citing the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) as indicating stocks are expensive, Citi noted, but it added that while the level was fairly high compared with its history, that may not mean much.
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"While the message was a little muddied today, the evidence generally suggests the labor market is cyclically tightening, and the Fed will need to continue to lean against that," said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.
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The cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio of the American market, which uses a ten-year average of profits, is 32.4; it has been higher only in September 3.33 (just before the Wall Street crash) and during the dotcom bubble.
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Gundlach, who oversees more than $100 billion at DoubleLine, and is known as the "Bond King" on Wall Street, said Europe and emerging markets are "significantly cheaper" on a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book basis.
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The cyclically adjusted price-earnings (or CAPE) ratio developed by Shiller shows even greater overvaluation; that metric, which compares current prices to average earnings over the past 10 years adjusted for inflation, is more elevated than it's been since 2002.
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"Rising U.S. rates at the same time the global economy is showing signs of slowing down and the ongoing trade war still provides a major barrier for any cyclically-sensitive currency, whether it's an emerging or developed market currency," he added.
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Over the past 20073 years the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE), a useful measure of how expensive stocks have become, has reached its current heights only twice before: during the dotcom bubble; and just before the Crash of '29.
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While the narrowing current account deficit is "encouraging news for investors", the lower reading "is best interpreted with caution, as cyclically Indonesia always sees a low current account deficit in the first quarter," said Satria Sambijantoro, an economist with Bahana Sekuritas.
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The cyclically adjusted budget deficit, the rate of whose decline is as good a measure of austerity as any, is forecast to fall by just as much over the remainder of the parliament as it was in July (see chart 3).
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Another measure that looks at valuation over the past decade, the Cyclically Adjust Price to Earnings ratio, developed by Nobel laureate economist Robert Shiller, shows the index trading below the dotcom bubble record but around the same levels as the crash of 1929.
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" Levkovich added that the bank's "normalized earnings yield gap work, which incorporates both cyclically adjusted P/E ratios and the five-year forward swap contract's 10-year Treasury yield levels ... it implies a 90% chance of an up market in 12 months.
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The cause of the November trade deficit was "not structural in nature, driven mostly by external factors such as low commodity prices that compressed Indonesia's exports, as well as cyclically high imports in the fourth quarter," Satria Sambijantoro, Bahana Sekuritas analyst said.
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Across emerging markets, equities are valued at a 45 percent discount to U.S. equities based on their 10-year cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio — not far from the record during the technology boom in late-1990s, the bank said in its review.
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At the end of 2019, the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500, as developed by economist Robert Shiller, stood above 30, a level only meaningfully exceeded before the dot-com bust at the turn of the millennium.
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The U.S. is trying to deal with that by protecting its economy from abuses of free trade, magnified by cyclically uncoordinated economic policies that the G-7 and, subsequently, G-20 were supposed to avoid through permanent consultations at ministerial and summit meetings.
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KEY RATING DRIVERS IDRS, VR, DCR AND SENIOR DEBT Erste's IDRs, VR and senior debt rating reflect Fitch's view that the bank's profitability has improved owing to more balanced profit contributions from CEE subsidiaries as well as cyclically and structurally lower loan impairment charges (LICs).
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Earnings are supported by high-margin credit card businesses in the UK and US, fee share gains in underwriting and advisory in the corporate and investment bank as well as from the cyclically low cost of risk and weaker sterling versus the US dollar.
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Burt Malkiel, Princeton economist, author of the classic Random Walk Down Wall Street and the chief investment officer of online financial advisor Wealthfront, pointed to the CAPE, the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, which is about 40 percent correlated to future equities returns, he said.
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"South Africa still has a lot of challenges and there is the Fitch rating decision to come this month, but they haven't been downgraded ... cyclically there is still room for the rand to do a bit better," said Dominic Bunning, emerging markets FX strategist at HSBC.
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The continued fall after the referendum meant that overvaluation in the City submarket, measured as the market value decline needed to bring values into line with Fitch's cyclically-neutral metric, dipped from almost 40% in spring 2016 to below 30% a year later, before bouncing back slightly in 2Q17.
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One reason, they speculate, is that the sacramental and liturgical nature of dealing with sin in the Catholic Church — the idea that your sins can consistently and cyclically be purged through confession, penitence, and Eucharist — allows for an aesthetic of extremes: extreme sexual freedom followed by extreme penitence.
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PCB's quarterly profit before tax increased 5% y-o-y, as revenue lost from the disposal of the US wealth business and mortgage margin pressure were offset by lower operating costs resulting from the group's strategic cost-cutting programmes and technology investments, and cyclically low loan impairment charges.
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But the scientists still needed to figure out why PER was changing cyclically—it was as if they had an inbox full of emails (the proteins) sent from the period gene, but no one to check and respond to them and no employer's time clock to regulate the checking.
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Clinton had a serious obstacle in trying to overcome one of the most powerful forces in American politics — the hunger for change that is cyclically embraced by voters — while being such a well-known figure and running for what was in effect a third term for President Obama.
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Using the Robert Shiller cyclically adjusted PE comparison, which weighs price against earnings of the past 10 years, stocks are trading at highs seen only twice before — around the onset of the 2000 bear market and, even more ominously, the 1929 market crash that ultimately led to the Great Depression.
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"We went back to 1994 and researched team data that said [that if we look at cyclically adjusted P/E, one out of two times] the market was down in the next 12 months, and about one out of three times it was down more than 10 percent," he said.
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As a 2015 New Yorker feature on the subject notes, Birkenstock's association with the counterculture has ensured that they were "cyclically fashionable" ever since the '20083s — Kate Moss famously wore them in an influential magazine spread in 1990, while Marc Jacobs included them in his 1992 grunge collection for Perry Ellis.
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"The cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE), a valuation measure created by economist Robert Shiller now stands over 27 and has been exceeded only in the 1929 mania, the 2000 tech mania and the 2007 housing and stock bubble," Alan Newman wrote in his Stock Market Crosscurrents letter at the end of November.
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"Leaving aside the impact of grounding the Maxes — assuming that will start to be rectified within the next 6 months at least — I think we probably did see a peak in aircraft orders last year, which unfortunately, generally, cyclically seems to precede the year when things turn down a bit," he said.
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In New York, bars were raided cyclically: usually before elections, before major events like the 21989 New York World's Fair, when Mayor Robert F. Wagner Jr. closed the bars to keep innocent tourists from wandering in, or when cops decided they wanted to squeeze out a bit more payola from Mafia barkeeps.
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While exposure to industry risks is broadly on par to the sector average, a greater proportion of cyclically exposed advertising-based revenues and a lower mix of subscription-based revenues at RTL drive potentially higher volatility in cash flows compared to other media companies such as RELX (BBB+/Stable) and CBS Corporation (BBB/Stable).
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In previous downturns, values overcorrected, and in the medium term if weaker occupational demand led banks to conduct fire-sales, or if higher rates forced debt-backed construction plans to accelerate, then we could see over 40% cut from London office values, taking them below our cyclically-neutral metric for the first time since mid-2010.
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Rich valuations are not a sell signal in themselves, since in the later stages of a bull market - which can last years - "corporate earnings are cyclically elevated and the multiple that the market assigns to those earnings is often elevated as well," according to a note from analysts at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch on Wednesday.
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"Right now it's cyclically tight on the demand side and on the supply side so anything to alleviate the pain while the driving season gets going is probably a good thing because in fact, in the longer run, if you hurt demand today with really high oil prices, you could actually end up with a lower expectation going forward," she said.
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"Valuation doesn't matter in the short term but at current CAPE (cyclically adjusted price to earnings, which gives a more clear indication of a stock price in comparison to average earnings over the last 10 years) of 29 times, U.S. equities have historically delivered negative real returns over periods of two to five years," he said in an investment outlook published earlier this month.
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By Brent R. Moulton, Brookings Institution, July 20123Trilemmas and trade-offs: living with financial globalisation, by Maurice Obstfeld, BIS Working Paper, January 2015Global dimensions of US monetary policy, by Maurice Obstfeld, NBER working paper, July 2019The role of expectations in changed inflation dynamics, by Damjan Pfajfar and John M. Roberts, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Federal Reserve Board, 2018Slack and cyclically sensitive inflation, by James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, NBER working paper, June 2019Suttle Economics Notes #91: Confessions of an inflation-targeting skeptic, Suttle Economics, August 2019Whither central banking?
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