This is probably a case of reversion to the mean.
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One is that GMO is simply wrong about mean reversion.
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There's not going to be a reversion to the mean.
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This is not yet a reversion to the authoritarian past.
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"Mere reversion to the mean is likely," Mr. Mehta said.
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Mean-reversion does happen over long periods of time, for sure.
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Such dezinformatsiya may seem like a mere reversion to Soviet form.
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Why does mean reversion seem to work as an investment strategy?
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So this is really kind of a reversion to the mean.
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Last come historical prices, to take into account momentum and mean reversion.
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TV, on the other hand, requires a reversion to the status quo.
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"This is a reversion back to McCarthyism by the Democrats," he said.
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The first is that there is a reversion towards a tied result.
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Reversion to the Obama-era norm isn't what the Trump administration wanted, though.
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"A continued downtrend is as likely as reversion to normal," Mr. Summers said.
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Ultimately, these long periods of muted moves will lead to a mean reversion.
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A large percentage of investors were expecting this correction and reversion to mean.
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"Reversion to WTO tariffs... would threaten the viability of the industry," he said.
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Low volatility readings of late have stoked speculation of an inevitable mean reversion.
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"We'll have to hope this isn't a reversion to global mean", Mr Flyvbjerg says.
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Reversion of control would then need to be approved by the state education secretary.
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Rising populism and culture wars across the West are written up as a reversion.
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Nearly two decades after its reversion to China, few in Hong Kong want that.
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The reversion to the traditional, two-party structure of British politics could help Labour.
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Mr. Abbas must find President Trump's inconsistency and reversion to mogul banalities a relief.
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"That's really problematic for Democrats and progressives if there's a pre-Obama reversion," he said.
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Here are the telecom stocks Lee recommends to take advantage of this mean reversion trade.
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This is in contrast to some of its peers who have had negative rental reversion.
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Finally, bear in mind that some of this reaction may be reversion to the mean.
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Take a slightly longer view, though, and it looks like a reversion to the norm.
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Less testosterone may be factually true, but the reversion to such obvious stereotypes is frustrating.
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Welfare reform has failed, but the solution is not a reversion to the old program.
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Reversion of the yield curve to upward sloping could reduce fears of an economic slowdown.
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It returns now as identity politics, which is reactionary reversion to the pre-modern world.
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Could they find genes that would act as an emergency brake on the reversion process?
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It was classic Laurie Anderson stuff: gently dystopian, with nods toward both progress and reversion.
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It's called mean reversion, the tendency for most investments to revert to long-term averages.
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But in context, it's more like a reversion to the norm of the past few years.
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We expect Wharf's malls to achieve 12% positive rental reversion in 103 and 10% in 2017.
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But Brexit raises the prospect of a reversion — of one shock to the system begetting another.
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Campbell said she had to put the jet into manual reversion, as the back-up system.
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For some prisoners, this reversion to a state of imagined freedom was nightmarish; for others, blissful.
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But the last two weeks of polls have gone further than a reversion to the mean.
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But calling for a reversion to paper ballots only is not the correct path forward either.
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This spring season (May 15 through July 8), though, generally showed a reversion to artistic timidity.
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These are one-off advantages that could produce a few Democratic wins, then reversion to Republican control.
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"Dividend payers offer a safe haven from market volatility and should benefit from mean reversion," McKinney said.
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Big Machine's final offer to keep her apparently included a reversion of Swift's master recordings to her.
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The key to stopping this reversion may lie in the process that formed the modern welfare state.
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But you've raised the fascinating issue of conspiracy theories — not as glamorous as mean reversion, but hey.
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An inflationary environment is likely to help improve GLP's rental reversion and push up its property value.
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"This is really just a reversion to the mean," said Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt.
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Benioff's "capitalism as it has been practiced in recent decades" is actually a reversion to the mean.
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" "That's what they have the capability to do — in many ways this is a reversion to form.
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But so much of athleisure and wellness culture feels like a reversion to that earlier iteration of femininity.
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The German bots were the most civil, making an average of just 24 reversion edits over a decade.
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Just as a break with the past cannot yet be ruled out, nor can a reversion to it.
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The other perhaps a reversion to attitudes about the role of government in life prior to the 1980s.Ascent.
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There's a law called termination reversion and I know that he's gotten a lot of the songs back.
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Peter Tchir, macro strategist for Academy Securities, is not so impressed with the "reversion to the mean" story.
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But standard indicators are well above historically normal levels, and a reversion toward those norms could be painful.
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But the weak job creation number surely reflects some reversion to the mean after that extraordinary February number.
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You could see this less as Trump betraying his own rhetoric and more as a reversion to form.
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It's not a reversion to the policy prior to "zero tolerance," and will likely be challenged in the courts.
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He also disputed Swift's depiction of the masters reversion proposal and negotiations, including some document photos and email conversations.
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The flawed general election of December 30th represented a sharp reversion to the less democratic end of the spectrum.
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Experts say further study is needed to determine how many children make such a reversion in their transgender identity.
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To be clear, Fitch expects that there will be modest credit quality mean reversion over the rating time horizon.
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A reversion to the mean: Term premia will normalize and yields will get back to their long-term averages.
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"We see it as a reversion of supply factors that should not influence monetary policy very much," Velarde said.
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In a way, I would argue that Trump's way of thinking is a reversion to Tocqueville, Lincoln and Washington.
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Quant funds on the other hand can focus more on mean-reversion stocks, risk-adjusted returns and high turnover.
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Just as a matter of reversion to the mean, the next president is likely to see somewhat stronger growth.
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Wharf's Hong Kong investment-property segment was resilient amid market weakness, with positive rental reversion in 2015 and 2016.
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That was the story of 2016; the story since, though, is one of reversion to the older political order.
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The voters who tossed out Republican incumbents in 2018 may have sought a "reversion to the mean," he said.
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"All of the economic indicators were welcoming a reversion to normality," said Wael Ziada, head of investment company Zilla Capital.
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The two older Zoll centres had approximately 211% occupancy rates and positive rental reversion of more than 21500% in 21000.
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Short term, though, it's so overbought at this point, that I think there's definitely going to be some mean reversion.
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A reversion to direct rule could further strain relations with Ireland, which have deteriorated drastically in the past 12 months.
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JACK HODGE Henley-on-Thames, Oxfordshire I enjoyed the "meaty logic" to your Big Mac index ("Meat reversion", July 15th).
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Iron ore, a commodity whose fortunes are inextricably linked to China, is benefiting from Beijing's reversion to historical stimulus form.
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In some ways, whatever progress United is making represents a reversion to the mean, not a new height of achievement.
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Lennar Chief Executive Stuart Miller said the company was seeing "more of a reversion to normal" in the housing market.
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Drop-in robot pilots make for flexible retrofits, which can also leave aircraft ready for human control reversion where required.
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The two older Zoll centres had approximately 90% occupancy rates and positive rental reversion of more than 10% in 2016.
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"It won't be a reversion to the status quo ante, but it could be a de-escalation of the tariff ramp."
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In fact, from Mr Kim's narrow perspective, the failed summitry and reversion to sabre-rattling could be considered a great success.
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"There is a reversion in some of the IT hardware legacy names, partly because they became so inexpensive," Garcha told CNBC.
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Either way, it is understandable that GMO does not want to give up on the idea of mean reversion just yet.
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TREND REVERSION The trend performance of the equity market is not surprising since equities are a claim on residual corporate income.
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Mrs May has long promised that there would be no reversion to a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
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For fans of 'mean reversion', the pound is near the bottom of a 35-year trading range between $1.0 and $2.0.
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Indeed, the very fact that Trump has trained his sights on the media makes a reversion to false neutrality seem unlikely.
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The strong performance of its business parks can also be seen from the sustained positive annual rental reversion of 13%-8%.
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There is, in other words, a bit of a reversion to the mean when one party controls a lot of seats.
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Instead, it will be a reversion to type: EU summits are supposed to be pieces of theater drained of all drama.
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Long-term: reversion to normal; no more chaos—or much free time; hopefully, we are a little nicer to each other.
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Gareth Davies, a professor of geology at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, and his colleagues have recapitulated the reversion process in the laboratory.
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Those were moments of democratic backsliding too, even if the backsliding didn't culminate in a full-on national reversion to authoritarian rule.
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Regardless, Vizio "going back to apps" isn't as much of a reversion as some of the company's customers (or myself) might've thought.
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The two-figures-as-one in "Squash" suggests a reversion to the prepartum body, of two beings fused into one primordial creature.
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We cannot entirely dismiss the notion that mean reversion may occasionally occur, but relying on it is just another kind of speculation.
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In this sense one could say that QE could have stopped the mean-reversion process that usually occurs over the economic cycle.
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Returning to the greater employment security and stability of the pre-1800 world would imply a reversion to its more stagnant economy.
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The notion of "mean reversion", that prices will eventually move back toward the historical average, is also hard-wired into investors' psychology.
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He had early successes with simple "reversion to the mean" strategies, buying when a currency fell far enough below its recent average.
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Rather, the big concern is runaway asset prices, which encourage the buildup of leverage and whose mean-reversion can undermine financial stability.
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"We see valuation upside to shares in MCD by simply applying a reversion back to its historical discount to peers," he said.
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In war, the reversion to barbarism can be tempting in the heat of battle, and as passions and hatreds rise between peoples.
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This time, Democrats are counting on a reversion among white working-class voters and a surge in turnout among well-educated voters.
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Past uprisings, in the 1960s and 1980s, quickly saw a reversion to military control after a few years of erratic civilian rule.
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From a Chinese perspective, this reordering is merely an overdue reversion to historical reality as Beijing demands consideration commensurate with its stature.
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The VIX's sharp move could also simply be a reversion to its mean and not a sign of panic in the markets.
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However, several studies have shown that this is simply a reversion to the team's typical level of performance, after a temporary slump.
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"We see Qualcomm as a powerful mean reversion story over the next year," Goldman's Simona Jankowski wrote in a note to clients Thursday.
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In fact, the period from 1966 to 1982 was possibly the worst on record in terms of constant reversion to inverted yield curves.
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She said that manual reversion is a system of cranks and cables that allow the pilot to fly the aircraft under mechanical control.
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If Twitter gets the reversion to default situation figured out, the new button could make the service much more flexible, thereby boosting usage.
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They'll also have to find out how this all works in humans, not mice, and definitively test the functional necessity of the reversion.
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Japan's population remains sensitive to any perceived reversion to the militarism that many still blame for wrecking the country during World War Two.
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"What we tend to see over time is a reversion to a more normal VIX number, which is around 23," Emanuel pointed out.
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SO IF WE DO GET A REVERSION IN STYLE OR TONE IN THE MARKET, WE ACTUALLY THINK WERE POSITIONED TO DO RATHER WELL.
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"If the reversion process really removes all evidence of the changes, it would probably be judged like any other car," Mr. Button said.
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Disease-ridden times were associated with more conformity, authoritarianism, less openness and a reversion to traditional social norms—all bad news for women.
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Even a partial reversion to the mean (the long-term CAPE average is 16.8 compared with about 30 today) would be very bad news.
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However, rather than viewing Q3 2018 as a disappointment for the early-stage SaaS investment market, it's more like a reversion to the mean.
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Iraq's leaders seem unlikely to act as Britain's did, turning from war to social reform; instead they are risking a reversion to civil strife.
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On the other hand, Fitch expects Tier 21500 city rents to hold firm and enjoy 21000%-212000% rent reversion due to limited land supply.
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It showed me that social reversion is possible, especially when driven by widening income inequality that's puffed up by demagogues into an us vs.
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Some of that decline may have been simple mean reversion, a tendency of markets to return to an average level after a big move.
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In 2000, when market capitalization to GDP reached nearly 150%, the subsequent recession resulted in a valuation reversion to 75% market cap to GDP.
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"Invest well within established cash flow, [with] a reversion to pre-2008 mindset, [use] a value approach," the last slide in Dittman's presentation stated.
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Johnston is the reversion to the mean: He has a Twitter account, but according to his profile he has yet to publish a Tweet.
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Mean reversion applies to populism, too, and oftentimes one consequence of populist wins is for the pendulum to swing back in the other direction.
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"You want to take advantage of this pullback, and you're going to see some reversion," Evercore ISI head of technical analysis Rich Ross said Monday.
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Through strength in numbers, artists might be able to standardize more favorable contractual terms such as a reversion of rights after a period of time.
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A few reasons: Most people are hard-wired to be mean reversion traders People have a pathological need to be right when others are wrong.
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The reversion to black may be easier to comprehend, as the haplessness of Theresa May's government and worries over Brexit have darkened the outlook for drivers.
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Beyond Steciw's chain-hung image cut outs, all other pieces on view are wall works, a seeming reversion back to a more traditional notion of photography.
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They think that such a shift would be a reversion to more government spending at their expense, and not produce the jobs and prosperity they need.
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In the post-Mao era, Deng Xiaoping made the reversion of Hong Kong to China an early priority, reaching an agreement with Margaret Thatcher in 1984.
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"One can turn that mean reversion into profits by rebalancing their portfolio by selling securities that have outperformed and buying securities that have underperformed," he added.
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This reversion to the voter alignments that drove the party primaries during the late 20th century represents a back to the future moment for the Democrats.
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But few forces in life are more powerful than mean reversion — the tendency of long-run averages to reassert themselves despite the perturbations of the present.
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The current outbreak of diplomacy might be less a response to Trump's pressure campaign and more a product of Pyongyang's reversion to its more classic diplomatic approach.
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His family said he had been on a downward spiral that included a reversion to drugs and violence since the death of his only son in 2527.
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Finally, the firm likes how the rest of the Street is negative on the consumer discretionary stocks, which sets up the potential for a mean reversion rally.
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But the whole problem is that it seems like a reversion to these previous periods of US history that we thought we were at least partially past.
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Above all, Facebook's reversion to reliance on individual users to drive content does nothing to address longstanding concerns about echo chambers and "filter bubbles" on the site.
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That ought to provide fundamental support for crude prices, paving the way for a reversion toward a more sustainable price equilibrium above $22016 a barrel in 22017.
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But Khizr Khan's star turn at the Democratic National Convention and Trump's bizarre counterattack marked a reversion to the old strategy of obtaining attention at any cost.
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" Stockman emphasized that the reversion to the MIT license doesn't amount to his support of ICE, an agency he described as "monstrous" and that "must be abolished.
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Should rates normalize further, Fitch would expect some degree of reversion in asset quality for most banks in the peer group, which is already incorporated in the ratings.
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To the Editor: You are right: Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter's 2017 budget is "a reversion back to what the Pentagon has traditionally done," but with good reason.
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At least the reversion to black is easier to comprehend, as the haplessness of Theresa May's government and worries over Brexit have darkened the outlook for Britain's drivers.
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"As rates are allowed to normalize, fundamental, mean reversion across many specialized long short strategies is likely to drive strong performance and industry growth into 2017," he added.
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Recent evidence of weakening consumer credit performance in energy producing regions more likely represents a reversion to mean after years of high growth instead of a substantive downturn.
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Hong Kong's enjoyment of 50 years of autonomy after its reversion to Chinese sovereignty in 1997 was supposed to be an advertisement of the advantages of this arrangement.
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"This is more of a mean reversion behavior in the market, not necessarily a decisive move," said Sid Mokhtari, director of institutional equity research at CIBC World Markets.
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Negative rating action could occur with a reversion to negative growth and margin trends coupled with an inability to drive cost savings under the firm's expanded Invigorate program.
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Fitch believes that Canadian banks' credit performance is likely at a cyclical peak, with a combination of macroeconomic and housing market trends pointing to some credit reversion in 2017.
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You might want to buy the underlying asset because sometimes it takes one quarter or two quarters to get that bounce back through fundamentals or reversion to the mean.
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Part of the reason was what some market watchers call a simple "reversion to the mean," a reference to market conditions generally returning to longer-term norms over time.
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"That's a reversion to the norm from the high point in 2014 when a third of the 15-member Security Council — five countries — were represented by women," Hayes notes.
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That looks an awful lot like "reversion to the mean," and it wouldn't be surprising if final revisions show a slower pace of job growth across the two months.
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It concludes that the hardest form of Brexit, a reversion to WTO terms, would cut trade by 40% over ten years and reduce annual income per person by 2.6%.
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But this initiative seems like a reversion back to what the Pentagon has traditionally done — prepare to fight big wars with ever more costly weapons against adversaries like Russia.
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Resilient HK Retail: Wharf was able to achieve a close to 10% positive rental reversion for its retail leasing business in 1H16, despite weakness in Hong Kong's retail sector.
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Against the backdrop of renewed weakness in oil prices, which touched new lows on Wednesday, economists say the expected reversion to the Fed's 20.4 percent inflation target is slowing.
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"China has been a dog over the last two years relative to the rest of the world, so we're starting to see some reversion to the mean," he said.
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In a nightmarish confluence of class hatred and reversion to primitive custom, it is claimed that victims in Guangxi, a province in southern China, were eaten according to rank.
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Bull markets pushed the index well above trend in 1929, 1937, 2000 and 2007, but in each instance they were followed by sharp corrections and a reversion to trend.
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In fact, the Islamic State's reversion from de facto governing body to destabilizing guerrilla ideology could lead the group to refocus on 22019/11-style external terror attack planning.
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Industry-wide, Fitch expects asset quality and residual value reversion across many consumer and commercial finance asset classes in 2017 after loosening underwriting standards and increased competition post-crisis.
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Fitch estimates that a rapid reversion to just 2011 levels for almost $38 trillion of investment-grade government bonds could crystallize market losses of as much as $3.8 trillion.
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"It was a bit of a reversion to the mean," said Chuck Self, chief investment officer of iSectors in Appleton, Wisconsin, on the rally in U.S. shares losing steam.
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There's an emotional nakedness here, almost a reversion to childhood that is both completely understandable and often wrenching, but at times an impediment to really falling into these stories.
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It's certainly possible — a 10-year win streak would argue for some kind of mean reversion — but even so, consecutive down years in the S&P 22000 are remarkably rare.
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DERIVATION SUMMARY LVGEM has a good-quality IP portfolio that includes the centrally located Shenzhen NEO towers, which enjoyed near full occupancy and double-digit positive rental reversion on renewal.
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His mixing of public and private endeavours looks like a reversion to the way conflicts of interest worked at the presidential level before civil-service reform in the 20th century.
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Chicken nuggets are everyone's childhood-reversion food, a perfect antidote to breakups, miserable work days, and anytime you just want to bathe in self pity and longing for the past.
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Although performance to date has been stable, Fitch believes a reversion in credit performance to normalized levels from historical lows may lead to credit deterioration in the syndicated loan book.
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"It was a bit of a reversion to the mean," said Chuck Self, chief investment officer of iSectors in Appleton, Wisconsin, on the rally in U.S. shares losing its steam.
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The 2017 run represents "a reversion to the mean," said Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management, referring to the supposed tendency of one year's underperformers to outperform, and vice versa.
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"At this point, with very strong yields and the fact they were so cheap for so long, the market is really just plowing on a mean reversion basis," said Schlossberg.
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But today we seem to be seeing, among the voters for Brexit, for example, a reversion to nationalism and, in the United States, what looks like a surge of nativism.
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"While the environment has remained difficult with growth stocks accelerating their outperformance against value stocks this year, including February, we think a reversion may finally be coming soon," Einhorn said.
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Hence, a key risk to our forecast is lack of coordination among stakeholders in keeping supply growth in check, which could result in a reversion to the low profitability of 2014.
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And that has been a winning strategy so as much as we would like to think that there should be a bit more reversion in the market, it is not happening.
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But this means that the potential cost of a reversion to "normal" levels of interest rates gets even greater; imagine what would happen to homeowners if mortgage rates were 6-7%.
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The energy sector should begin to catch up to the rise in oil prices, and Schlumberger in particular should begin to experience some mean reversion with regard to its stock performance.
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"That mean reversion is going to start kicking in, especially as we start to see high tech and high flyers really start to … crumble because of the coronavirus fears," he said.
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I had assumed this new predilection was just a phase, or a reversion to my natural nerd instincts, but I increasingly think it's a reaction to something else — to the real world.
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" "It's a little below expectations but on the heels of a strong February, and February was revised higher, it's a little reversion to the mean and evening out the strong February data.
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Humans, on the other hand, tend to have a mission, and rather than mutual reversion, one human will change hundreds of instances of another's work with little or no response from them.
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A hypothetical rapid reversion of rates to 2011 levels for $37.7 trillion worth of investment-grade sovereign bonds could drive market losses of as much as $3.8 trillion, according to our analysis.
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Barring some massive transformative technological change that would boost productivity markedly, history suggests that stocks' 10-year forward returns could be in the low single digits as markets' mean reversion takes hold.
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When you get numbers that are way out of the ordinary, it's logical to believe in mean reversion, that it is highly unlikely that returns or volatility will come anywhere near 2017.
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"If it's true, it completes the reversion which was already underway," Alan Keenan, a Sri Lanka specialist for the International Crisis Group, said of Mr. Sirisena's claim to have contacted Mr. Trump.
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Hindering the expansion of natural gas pipelines could drive a reversion to dirtier energy sources like coal and heating oil, especially when sufficient infrastructure for renewable energy is not yet in place.
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At the Casa Rosada, the presidential palace in Buenos Aires, Mr Macri's chief of staff, Marcos Peña, argues that the election is a choice between reform or a reversion to Argentina's dysfunctional past.
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At this point, "we think it's time to look for a reversion to the mean in favor of global equities," Krinsky, chief market technician at MKM Partners, wrote in a recent research note.
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Most hedge funds seem to have predicted the winter of 2016/17 would be significantly cooler than the record warm winter of 2015/16 based on a degree of mean-reversion (tmsnrt.rs/2ftThOe).
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Increasing margins, combined with a reversion to normalized capital expenditure levels following two years of elevated investment underpin Fitch's expectations for about $500 million in mid-cycle annual FCF over the rating horizon.
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The profits of trade houses were mixed in 2015, with those focused on energy mostly faring better than metals or agriculture, but the reversion to core activity is broadly consistent across the sectors.
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"These stocks should struggle if borrowing costs continue to climb, but may present a tactical value opportunity for investors who expect a reversion in spreads," strategist Ben Snider said in note to clients.
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She and other experts described this "authoritarian reversion" as a global contagion that has undermined the abiding faith that forging liberal democracies and market economies was the surest path to prosperity and equality.
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At the end of the day, the only policy compatible with Greenspan's inflationary monetary regime was reversion to completely managed trade and a shift to historically high tariffs on imported goods and services.
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The peso has also benefited from simple reversion to the mean — it had weakened for a long while, even before its unfortunate tangle with Mr. Trump — and was due for a jolt upward.
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"It's a reversion to normalcy after the market got caught running for the exits on long dollar positions," said Greg Anderson, global head of foreign exchange strategy at BMO Capital Markets in New York.
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Some asset quality mean-reversion is factored into our ratings and negative rating action is therefore only likely when banks' losses and nonperforming asset ratios exceed our expectations and those of similarly rated peers.
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Asked whether Sony overpaid for Sony/ATV given the coming reversion, the insider said no -- half of the Lennon-McCartney publishing for the world excluding the U.S. is not chump change by any measure.
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LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices have continued to drift lower after plunging last week, highlighting the risk for traders trying to exploit mean-reversion strategies by buying futures contracts after a sharp fall in prices.
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" Despite this, Yochelson sees a future where there may be a reversion to older photographic tendencies: "I suspect the pendulum may swing back towards simpler means and even a closer scrutiny of photographic traditions.
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I THINK SOME OF THIS IS AN OVERREACTION TO OVERREACTION OF ASSETS BEING SO SWOLLEN AND NOW THERE'S A REVERSION AND -- I THINK YOU SOUND SMARTER WHEN YOU'RE NEGATIVE SO I CAN REGALE YOU.
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Alarmingly, women's rights are being sidelined, heightening concerns that a potential power-sharing arrangement or constitutional reform will facilitate a reversion to brutal Taliban rule and the reinstitution of its contorted interpretation of Sharia.
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If the United States left NAFTA, and a president has authority to withdraw, under the Trade Act of 22019 a president also can proclaim reversion of tariff rates to World Trade Organization (WTO) levels.
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Tuesday's reversion to the Bain group contradicts a report earlier in the day in the Nikkan Kogyo business daily that Toshiba had chosen the Western Digital bid and would announce the deal on Wednesday.
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When he carried the e-cigarette in his left breast shirt pocket, it caused a so-called magnetic reversion in his defibrillator, interrupting the defibrillator's ability to detect or treat an irregular heart rhythm.
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The only character development I've bought all season was Morgan's reversion to a morally ambivalent stance on killing, mainly because we got an entire episode devoted to laying out his moral shift for us.
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Conversely, a material deterioration in capital or asset quality may prompt negative rating action, though Fitch expects some level of mean reversion in loan losses, as well as a reduction in capital ratios over time.
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Once the "jaws of life" divergence between broad equities and gold shares starts to close, mean reversion suggests gold shares may be in for an extended period of outperformance versus the S&P 500 Index.
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The move towards larger deals reflects a reversion back towards trends seen in 23 – often referred to as the "year of the megadeal" – after a 2016 characterized by more of a focus on midmarket activity.
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"The fourth is that you're entering a time towards the end of the year where we definitely usually tend to see a real mean reversion out of the winners and into the laggards," Newton said.
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WASHINGTON, June 16 (Reuters) - The United States on Thursday warned China that any reversion to its past exchange rate policy of keeping the yuan artificially low would trigger a new round of U.S.-China tensions.
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Positive or negative deviations from trend, on the other hand, can provide an early warning about the risk of a future trend reversion because they tend to be unsustainable in the medium- and long-run.
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"To me this much-touted new 'technique' is a reversion to the animalistic, a declaration of spiritual bankruptcy, a shedding of hard-won civilized sentiments like tenderness, honor, self-respect, loyalty, friendship, love," he said.
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Similarly, using closer Kenley Jansen in the seventh inning instead of the ninth was an insightful reversion to the old Goose Gossage fireman way of using closers, going not for the save, but for the win.
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The fund, known as the Global Reversion Fund, or by its Portuguese-language initials RGR, manages money used to pay for Brazil's rural electrification program and to extend the electricity distribution system to other unserved areas.
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Even if a post-Trump president offers reassurances to allies and returns America to old norms, the citizens of nations like Australia and South Korea might reasonably ask themselves how long such a reversion can last.
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More likely, it is thought, partly based on Mr Portman's success in Ohio, a reversion to ticket-splitting could help embattled Republican candidates survive at best a five-point defeat for Mr Trump in their states.
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The problem is that movement toward this new strategy has not been consistent given Powell's apparent reversion to an old strategy or simply by his lack of clarity about the Fed's commitment to a new one.
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Additionally, loan losses in general have been well below historical averages; therefore Fitch expects mean reversion to take hold especially in a higher interest rate environment where marginal borrowers may be unable to support debt servicing.
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And mean reversion suggests that if she wins, Clinton is likely to have a very banal presidency — a honeymoon, a backlash, some achievements, many frustrations, a reelection, and a legacy that will be debated for decades.
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Though the NPC oversees the territory's constitution, its rulings were always intended as a last resort in a place that was promised "a high degree of autonomy" on its reversion from British rule to China in 1997.
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Justin Onuekwusi, a fund manager at Legal & General Investment Management, warned that a reversion to the frictions of WTO trade regulations would almost certainly result in a recession, and the pound could collapse in such a scenario.
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Critics are also alarmed by the possible reversion under Mr. López Obrador of an energy reform that opened up the exploitation of oil and natural gas to foreign investment and could attract as much as $200 billion.
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In both places this is roughly three times as high as in 1970, but in America's case it is a reversion to a historical norm, whereas in Sweden it is a huge change for a previously monochrome society.
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At best, calls for a foreign policy of "greater restraint" and focus on inequality and corruption are a reversion to Barack Obama's strategy of leading from behind and the human-development priorities presented in his speech in Cairo.
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Tan added that the dollar had become overvalued against the euro, yen and sterling at the start of the year and so another part of the reason for its weakness in 2000 was a mean reversion in valuation.
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"If it's just a mean-reversion trade, then it's probably going to last another few weeks and then we're back to the old winners," said Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital Associates in Greenwood, South Carolina.
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The firm believes the year ahead likely will continue to be positive for risk assets like stocks — the banking sector in particular — though 2019 could bring a "mean reversion" that will benefit real assets over financial assets. Disclaimer
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In a recent paper titled "How to Lose a Constitutional Democracy," Huq and his University of Chicago colleague Tom Ginsburg argue that a wholesale "authoritarian reversion," along the lines of Hitler's rise to power in 1933 or Gen.
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It isn't the same thing as reversion: Few people think a sudden, dramatic collapse into dictatorship, like the fall of the Weimar Republic in Germany or the Peruvian "self-coup" of 1992, is likely in the near future.
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True to its roots, conservatism asserts that we are not created equal but that a properly maintained hierarchical system will be benevolent to all, and advocates reversion to a previous way of life that was preferable to this one.
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The arrangement, experts said, would set up a choice between a potentially multi-trillion dollar health care package, or an almost guaranteed death spiral in the individual market along with a reversion to many the Affordable Care Act's policies.
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While there is no predictive value in the calculation, even after year-to-date gains over 40 percent, gold equity indices still remain well below their respective highs (any reversion to the mean should have far further to go).
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Fitch continues to believe that credit quality for USB--as well as the rest of the industry--remains at or near a cyclical trough, and Fitch would expect some reversion in credit metrics over a medium-term time horizon.
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The end of the world has never been quite so simple a mythos for women, likely because most of us know that when social structures crack and shatter, what happens isn't an instant reversion to muscular state-of-naturism.
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The Raymond James 30,000-foot view is that the markets saw a "reversion to the mean" that saw an overextended stock market, off to its fastest start ever, in need of a splash of cold water to the face.
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However, to the extent that industry-wide credit conditions experience mean reversion with rising interest rates, and should TCB's credit metrics remain in line with or outperform higher rated peers engaged in similar lending strategies, positive ratings momentum could ensure.
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Still, he suggested patience is running out, stressing it is long past time to act as nearly 22 years have passed since Hong Kong's reversion to China and the territory has fugitive transfer facilities with a number of countries and regions.
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But assets that have lost a great deal of value, or have declined for a few years in a row, tend to benefit from the pattern of "mean reversion" – the effect where extreme moves tend to reverse themselves over time.
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Series creator James Cameron is going to re-acquire the rights to the franchise in 2019, a consequence of copyright reversion 35 years after his initial sale, and Cameron will have the opportunity to revitalize the property as he sees fit.
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So Nir added that the real test will be in districts where Clinton outperformed Obama, like the April special election in Georgia's 6th Congressional District, to see whether the trend will stick or if it's simply a reversion to the mean.
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But they did live, and was then subjected to what's known as reversion therapy — during which a "therapist" harms someone whose sexuality they aim to change, often while making them look at images of the bodies they shouldn't be attracted to.
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Toronto's Offense Is Official Despite struggles in the clutch, which reflect a reversion back to the isolation-heavy, late-shot-clock-heaving approach that hurts them so much when it matters most, Toronto's offense is quietly morphing into an unselfish monster.
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A reversion back to something akin to the Federal Family Education Loan Program (where private lenders provided the capital for student loans backed by federal government subsidies and the guarantee of repayment in the case of default) is highly unlikely, though.
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"The Fed is coming and for us the Fed holds the potential to catalyze a reversion trade that we started to see in the last couple of days, with the financials trading as strong as they have been, " said Emanuel.
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Fitch continues to believe that overall credit performance for BAC as well as the rest of the industry remains near cyclical lows, and that there is likely to be some reversion in credit costs over the next couple of years.
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In Spain the taxi industry's anger has been focused on failure to uphold a 22018 reversion of a transport law which reinstated an earlier VTC license cap, dating back to 1990, that sets a ration of one VTC per 30 taxis.
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Following on from her 2014 feature film debut, Appropriate Behavior, she began the year by premiering her new film, The Miseducation of Cameron Post (about homosexual reversion camps for children) at Sundance film festival, taking home the top Grand Jury prize.
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"The likelihood of an abrupt - and damaging - exit with no agreement and reversion to WTO trading rules has increased compared to our expectation directly after the referendum, with the government so far pursuing objectives that imply a 'hard' exit,'" she said.
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"I am concerned about the mean reversion we have already started to see, where the overbought stocks — like the Facebooks of the world, or the Boeings of the world — that have really run up, they're looking somewhat overextended here, " Stockton said.
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That's just a reversion to McCarthy-era red-baiting to discredit an idea by putting a label on it and associating that label with Stalinism in the Soviet Union, a repressive, bureaucratic state that had nothing to do with socialism.
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"Whilst potentially the first quarter represents a key turning point for the balance of 220, as to whether it presents a panacea to the mean reversion/range trading so evident in our space seems unlikely," said Alastair Munro at broker Marex Spectron.
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Failure to meet the needs of your colleagues can often lead to resentment, tension and burnout for the team who has to pick up the slack, often pressuring reversion to more status and title-driven structures because the "new approach" broke down.
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Resilient Rents, Positive Rental Reversion: HK Land's leases expiring in 21000 and 212000 have average rental of HKD4807123 per square foot (psf) per month, which is below the average office rent in Central district of HKD212001 psf per month at end-2016.
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" Likely helping was the rebound in markets from the mid February lows, the US dollar no longer rallying and some mean reversion after a half a year of manufacturing declines," Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, said in a note.
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Consequently, the most important element of the statement that Trump and Kim signed was the delegation to Pompeo and 'a relevant high-level DPRK official' to continue the negotiations, ensuring that there will be a reversion to more technical and detailed talks.
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The reversion of the rule was noted by a user on Twitter (via Electrek), and confirmed by Elon Musk himself, as well as other Tesla owners who went through with the update and found the limit removed on their vehicles' Autopilot systems, too.
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That reversion is literal: the opening shots of artist Blake Williams's PROTOTYPE, screening as part of the Wavelengths program at the Toronto Film Festival, are of vintage stereoscope cards, a primitive 3D viewing method popular in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.
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The police clashed with thousands of activists during the protest against a treaty between the United States and Japan that resulted in the reversion of Okinawa's sovereignty to the Japanese government but allowed for a continued American military presence in the prefecture.
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Like Nietzsche, he also condemned the victory of the slave class as a reversion to the base animality of primitive society—a condition in which people attended only to their gross physical needs and not the higher ideals of an aristocratic order.
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On the other hand, those prior polls showed her behind by an average of 15 points, so there may be some "reversion to the mean" at play — it might be that the five previous polls were unrealistically good for Mr. Sanders, not that Mrs.
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Despite Trump's claim that he opposed the Iraq War—though he in fact endorsed the effort before it was underway—he has promised not a slight escalation of Obama's war on terror, but a full-on reversion to the greatest excesses of the Bush years.
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However, in 2009, sources told Billboard that Sony/ATV cut a deal with Lennon's widow, Yoko Ono, prior to the reversion dates that enabled it to retain its publisher's share for the life of the copyright, which lasts for 70 years after the author's death.
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It would mean weathering hostility from partisans, and abandoning the outdated and false notion that provisional postures of appeasement will magically temper the worst of Republican impulses and lead to some bipartisan reversion to a fantasy consensus that never existed in the first place.
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And I believe that this is what has created the kinds of horrible tensions in our society which have resulted in populism and extremism, xenophobia, racism and this renewed reversion to a hatred of the other that we are seeing all over the world.
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"This volatility may continue to year-end, but a full reversion to a bear market trend is something different and in our view the configuration that is opening up before us has more to do with a correction," said Pascal Blanqué, group CIO of Amundi.
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Biden is still a weak candidate, prone to gaffes and vulnerable to both a reversion of voter apathy and undoubtedly harsh attacks by both Bernie's fervent base (re: his long and largely centrist record) and Trump's Republican allies (re: his son Hunter's business dealings).
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"Any reversion to the foreign exchange policies and export-led growth model of the past, within the current context of weak global growth, would trigger a new round of tension between our two countries," U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said in remarks to the American Enterprise Institute.
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"The increased cost of risk of 82 basis points in H1 2019 is a result of an expectation of a reversion of credit quality to more normalized levels from the benign conditions in 2018, coupled with the expectation of lower write-backs and recoveries," it said.
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Rose's reversion away from the gnarly, organic hairstyle and menacing face mask (in place to treat his broken orbital bone, another little piece of Rose tragedy) that he started the year with seems almost like a stroke of reconditioning and penance for a man who's gone astray.
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The announcement that the Interior Ministry will become the Ministry of the Interior, Construction and Homeland provoked a bemused mix of ridicule and anger, especially among younger urban liberals, who see the proposal at best as kitsch and at worse as a reversion to a sinister nationalism.
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So this road map is very important to be accomplished in the next year, so that major changes are adopted by mid-2019, because the economy has cycles and we need to prepare ourselves to what can be in the near future reversion of this positive mood.
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The analyst named three key factors in his optimistic assessment: investors will come back to health care stocks as part of a "rotation and reversion" from other sectors, there are low-expectation set-ups in biotech, and consensus earnings estimates remain beatable for key sector players.
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But a reversion to the policies in place before the 2015 rule makes critics fear that the government will go back to a time when it turned a blind eye to segregation, giving taxpayer dollars to communities actively thwarting a central goal of the Fair Housing Act.
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The reversion to the old rule on restructuring should not have a significant impact on the industry going forward as we expect most of the large banks to undertake significantly less restructuring in 2H17, as asset-quality pressures ease due to a gradually improving operating environment.
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Mr. Lucas's interests as a filmmaker were initially abstract and formal, his ambitions avant-garde (watch his student film "Electronic Labyrinth: THX 1138 4EB"), so his reversion to traditional, mythic plotting and what David Foster Wallace called "single-entendre values" was so unfashionable as to be radical.
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Rating constraints include DFS's concentrated and cyclical business model, heavier reliance on wholesale funding, potential funding sensitivity associated with internet deposits in a rising rate environment, the likelihood of asset quality reversion from current levels, threats from disruptive technologies in the payments space, and elevated regulatory and legislative risk.
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And the CAPE picture looks more reasonable applying the upward-sloping trend line since World War II. Assuming reversion to that trend, S&P 500 earnings per share would only need to increase 10 percent in 2019 for the market to grow into its current valuation, FTSE Russell reckons.
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But being just another app meant having to compete for attention with noisy social content, so the siblings hit on the idea of using SMS — as a sort of artisanal reversion of current state consumer tech — to "find a way to rise above the noise," as they put it.
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Second, I overlooked the reality that for many older voters leaving the EU was not a leap into the unknown but a conservative, cautious reversion to the pre-503 status quo; witness the current delight in the right-wing press at the prospect of Britons getting blue (non-EU) passports "back".
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In the rarefied domain of copyright recordation, terminations and transfers, I can envision a blockchain that is quite useful in providing access to the public about updates in the reversion of rights back to a creator, or transfer to a new agent, or other recorded rights transactions of that sort.
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Why it matters: Experts told NYT that the decision could presage HUD cutting the rule entirely, allowing a reversion to the pre-2015 mean where the federal government could turn a blind eye to effective segregation — for example, by allowing local governments to place housing projects only in majority-black neighborhoods.
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The back of the curve tends to be seen as a better indicator of long-term supply and demand fundamentals, a rough gauge of the marginal cost to produce oil and a point of mean reversion - in which prices eventually move back toward the average - amid the industry's boom-bust cycles.
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"You could have a 'dogs of the world' effect as we get a little bit of mean reversion in some of these names that have just been terribly beaten down over the last year, and the dynamics could be very much favorable to them as they go forward," Schlossberg said.
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Here's how he would go about establishing a position:"My approach, which is similar in concept to the above ideas on mean reversion, would be to purchase a starter position, then also consider adding an additional 'unit' if the stocks in the industry declined 60%, and another unit at 80%."
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"Risk-on" sectors such as small-cap and bank stocks have rebounded strongly, but both groups remain just below the top of longstanding trading ranges, leaving open the chance that their recent revivals have been mechanical mean-reversion moves rather than a shift in the market's character toward more cyclical leadership.
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The sermons of Wang Yi, a house-church pastor in the city of Chengdu, epitomise the changes taking place across the country, perhaps because he presents a clear vision of the future that is neither the party narrative nor just a reversion to the past: "We are creating a Jerusalem," he says.
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Farrington revealed that his team had used the currency's multiple wobbles during the previous nine months to add to its position and were looking for sterling to achieve a range of $1.30 - $1.35 in the nearer-term before delivering an eventual full reversion to pre-Brexit vote starting levels, around the $1.50 mark.
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"Now, it's that dispersion that's at the moment probably the most interesting opportunity in the market — start putting money to work in the losers and start taking a preference in the winners, because there's probably going to be a mean reversion in both sectors going either way over next 12 to 18 months."
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While Bredesen's early lead may be buoyed by Trump's low approval rating relative to his share of the vote in 2016, it may not be, and the chance of a reversion to the presidential tilt in the previous election may not be as high as it would be in a neutral political environment.
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The Blackstone executive said much of the discussion at this year's Singapore Summit focused on how the shifting role of the U.S. in international relations is "terrible," but James countered that the rise of powers like China and the increasingly inward-looking America is really just a reversion to the historical mean.
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The abrupt aesthetic reversal heralded by this executive order has some obvious underpinnings, beginning with the fact that the reversion to a mandatory classical style reflects the architectural philosophies of white supremacists online, as well as the doings of a developer-president and a right-wing think tank making what is explicitly a political move.
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In a weird way, then, Leicester's title win is more heartening for being followed by this instantaneous reversion to normality than it would be if – as some idiots contemplated – it had ripped up the hierarchy for good, permanently dethroned the Premier League's elite and cleared the path for a legion of mid-ranking imitators.
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This is the part of it that's specific to our time: the strategic cowardice of the anonymous source, the reversion to rhetoric of whinging woundedness and crocodile-tear disappointment instead of more straightforward and punitive swinging-dick bombast, the numbing corporate language that calls Kaepernick a distraction instead of something closer to what they mean.
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Also, the Democratic lead isn't above 10 points in the average of polls (usually there is a reversion to the mean for very large leads.) Still, a shift necessary for the Republicans to keep control of the House is well within the margin of error, even after controlling for these two main sources of error.
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We definitely saw some mean-reversion/worst-to-first action, which is classic January action: Large stocks over small; healthcare bouncing; industrial metals spanked/precious metals boosted; Nike strong today because it was weak in 2016 and NVIDIA doing the opposite; 2016 laggards Facebook and Alphabet up more than 1 percent in an unimaginative catch-up trade.
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KEY ASSUMPTIONS Fitch's key assumptions within our rating case for the issuer include: - Positive rental reversion of 12% in 2016 and 10% in 2017 and 2018 in its Hong Kong retail portfolio - Stable EBITDA margin of 80%-90% for the Hong Kong property leasing portfolio in 0003-17 - China property leasing EBITDA margin of 50%-60% for 2016-2019.
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When we examined hypothetical Brexit trade scenarios last month, we outlined the possible impact of a transition agreement and subsequent comprehensive EU-UK free trade agreement (FTA; Scenario 1), and of a reversion to World Trade Organisation rules followed by an eventual UK-EU FTA (Scenario 2) - see "Alternative Brexit Trade Scenarios", published on 0003 December, on www.fitchratings.
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"Whether or not this is a true long-term reversal in value outperforming growth is yet to be seen, but there are a few reasons that make us think the turn is coming (or has already started), and when it does, value should see a significant and sustained mean reversion in terms of performance," Carbonneau said.
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It is possible that a dishonorable, cowardly, unprincipled course will yield the result that many in both G.O.P. factions clearly crave: Trump defeated in the general election, his ideas left without a champion, and then a reversion to the party's status quo ante, to the comforts of a tactically narrow "wacko birds versus RINOs" family feud.
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There's no schedule for when reversion to the mean kicks in, but you'd have to be a card-carrying member of the "this time is different" investing club to think that large-cap U.S. stocks, currently trading at nearly 30 times long-term earnings, are capable of strong returns, let along global leadership over the next 10 years.
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The base presence continues to be a thorn in the Japanese government's relations with the US. On May 14, to mark the 45th anniversary of Okinawa's reversion to Japan, an estimated 20173,200 protestors gathered at the relocation site of the controversial US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, one of the oldest bases, which has become a focal point for anti-base demonstrations.
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KEY ASSUMPTIONS Fitch's key assumptions within our rating case for the issuer include: - 6% positive rental reversion each year - Balance of Wanda Plaza development land bank to be sold by 2020 - Trade payable to decline 55% by 2019 - Dividend paid to average CNY5 billion per annum over next five years RATING SENSITIVITIES The Rating Watch Negative will be resolved when there is more certainty about the company's ability to address its offshore liquidity needs.
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KEY ASSUMPTIONS Fitch's key assumptions within our rating case for the issuer include: - 6% positive rental reversion each year - Balance of Wanda Plaza development land bank to be sold by 2020 - Trade payables to decline 55% by 2019 - Dividend paid to average CNY13 billion a year over the next five years RATING SENSITIVITIES The Rating Watch Negative will be resolved when there is more certainty about the company's ability to address its offshore liquidity needs.
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In the U.K.'s "Article 50" letter to the European Union on March 29, which officially began the exit from the bloc, May repeatedly emphasized the U.K.'s wish to pursue a "deep and special partnership" with the EU, however, in acknowledging that a failure to agree a deal would mean a reversion to World Trade Organization trade terms, May's continued stance regarding her preference for "no deal" over a "bad deal" was clear.
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The challenge for us, and for policymakers at the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury, will be to understand whether any slowdown in auto production simply reflects a reversion to the norm, where automakers will sacrifice some quantity of sales to preserve some pricing power, or whether any slowdown in sales reflects a more fundamental weakening in household balance sheets that would be much more problematic given the length of the current expansion.
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"We believe the adjustment to the metric expectations has been absorbed into the market, and the outlook for positive earnings growth combined with a strong de-levering story are likely to drive the shares to outperform... AT&T trades at a discount to Verizon of ~3.5x turns of EPS and FCF, with 250 bp higher dividend yield... We believe that the combination of positive earnings growth and delevering over the course of the year will being investors back to AT&T... As such, for longer term oriented investors, locking in the 6.7% yield and waiting for mean reversion in valuation is likely to be rewarded... " Read more about it here.
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