Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. 4.
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The reason for this is simple: the power of incumbency.
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" About the results, Hogg said: "The incumbency advantage is insane.
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They are also by nature suspicious of authority and incumbency.
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Of course, the biggest advantage the Republicans have is incumbency.
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And history shows that incumbency offers no guarantee of victory.
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The president, in contrast, has all the advantages of incumbency.
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But they'll have the advantage of incumbency and money. Rep.
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Sustained incumbency is certainly not the point of seeking office.
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In 2202, we had the great gift of incumbency: time.
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We have gerrymandered our political districts into incumbency protection rackets.
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It was also a tribute to the power of incumbency.
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And Walker's incumbency affords him steady access to free media coverage.
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"ANTI-INCUMBENCY" has long been an iron rule of Indian elections.
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But McSally, now with the power of incumbency, is gaining ground.
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Despite his challengers' attacks, the power of incumbency still favors Gohmert.
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"We're going to burn the incumbency to the ground," he said.
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Beneath 2020's political surface lurks President Trump's underestimated incumbency advantage.
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The other major factor — incumbency — is also nothing to sneeze at.
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That's an impressive victory in the face of gerrymandering and incumbency advantages.
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The UP's incumbency, therefore, may not be an advantage for Mr Boakai.
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And in Senate elections, no-show voters are a threat to incumbency.
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Both parties — Republicans and Democrats — are obsessed with political survival and incumbency.
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But Hugo's incumbency advantage is palpable, and he seems to know it.
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Polarization elevates partisanship over incumbency as a factor in Congressional election outcomes.
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Poroshenko has "the power of incumbency on his side," according to Dhand.
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They saw it as incidental, whether they had incumbency and news views.
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He has the incumbency advantage, more campaign funds and high approval ratings.
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Its staying power owes a lot to incumbency—but also to transparency.
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Both countries face similar issues around anti-incumbency and flailing economic growth.
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And it thrust Obama into a leading role, demonstrating the advantage of incumbency.
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That probably wouldn't have been enough to overcome Obama's incumbency advantage in 2012.
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The power of incumbency means many of these legislators stick around for decades.
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There is typically an "incumbency advantage" in elections of a few additional points.
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Whatever the consumer welfare standard's flaws, has the twin advantages of incumbency and clarity.
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Others point the finger at the so-called "incumbency effect", and perhaps rightly so.
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"It's the power of incumbency," Stephenson, chief strategy officer at WPA Intelligence, told Hill.
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The Republican incumbency advantage has diminished in another way: Democratic recruitment and fund-raising.
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Of course, the party in control of Congress always has incumbency on its side.
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First, the Republican incumbency advantage has shrunk because so many GOP representatives have retired.
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Trump has a trifecta of fundraising, incumbency, and a strong economy going for him.
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The power of Trump's incumbency is uncharted territory As an incumbent, Trump carries unprecedented advantages.
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The retirements are so consequential because they deprive the party of the advantage of incumbency.
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INCUMBENCY STILL has its advantages, at least in a country where the economy is booming.
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That's because of the longstanding power of the incumbency brought about by decades of redistricting.
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He will have a daunting war chest and all the advantages that come with incumbency.
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Nonpartisan analysts say Issa is still slightly favored to win, given his 15-year incumbency.
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The Silicon Valley darling enjoys incumbency and the network effect in many of its markets.
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"We have the huge advantage of incumbency and local knowledge," says an executive at Tencent.
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However, much of this advantage stems from incumbency — relatively old presidents running for re-election.
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And that Republican will have name recognition and some form of incumbency advantage as well.
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Focusing on polls also leads to an unfair incumbency advantage that comes from name recognition.
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Machine politics and the advantages of incumbency make many politicians wary of changing the system.
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Incumbency matters a great deal when the economy is strong, as it undeniably is now.
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The strong Democratic recruitment, in effect, tends to cut against the G.O.P.'s incumbency advantage.
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And without the power of incumbency, Republicans may be hard pressed to keep those seats.
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Incumbency would reign -- for as long as incumbents wanted it to, which would be forever.
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Throughout presidential history, by one calculation, incumbency has been worth around three percentage points on average.
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Many upstarts struggle to overcome the advantages banks enjoy because of incumbency, notably large customer bases.
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THE POWER of "anti-incumbency" in Indian politics has long been considered a law of nature.
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In most cycles, one of the main advantages of incumbency is freedom from pesky primary challengers.
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Name recognition or incumbency are added boosts to candidates running in a race at this moment.
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Higher turnout, as well as the power of incumbency, may help save Republicans in the midterms.
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What we've identified is after 25 years of unchallenged incumbency, people in California want a change.
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The technical superiority and sophistication of the president's digital campaign is a hidden advantage of incumbency.
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Or put another way, Nelson's chances go down considerably when no candidate holds an incumbency advantage.
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The incumbency effect is strong, and the state has been heavily gerrymandered to work in their favor.
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As well as economies of scale, they enjoy the advantage of incumbency in a heavily regulated industry.
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The CBC's allegations are "absurd and more about protecting incumbency over democracy," a Justice Democrats source said.
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In the late 2628th century, however, a variety of factors began an era of long-term incumbency.
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The Republican structural edge in the House is fully realized only with the added advantage of incumbency.
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The so-called "incumbency rule" had long allowed the national group to target only open seat races.
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There is little question that incumbency and geography help bias the House playing field against the Democrats.
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HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. — With the might of incumbency and New York State's Democratic machine at his back, Gov.
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None of those races are likely to get any easier for Republicans without the power of incumbency.
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But incumbency has been shown to bestow a four- to five-percentage-point advantage on a candidate.
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But as Craig has filed for a rematch, she'll have to fight the power of incumbency now.
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The contrast with President Obama's incumbency and personal demeanor could not be more vivid or less encouraging.
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Fundamentals models that rely more heavily on economic conditions and incumbency point to Republicans having stronger chances.
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Ashford enjoys many of the advantages of incumbency despite his close loss in 2016 to Republican Rep.
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The power of incumbency, the strong economy and Republican enthusiasm for Trump will make him hard to beat.
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But he's got weaker odds than he probably should, considering the state of the economy and incumbency advantages.
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Anti-incumbency always runs strong in India, and some of Mr Modi's policies have also angered key constituents.
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Controlling for a state's weighted average partisanship and incumbency, Warren's performance was the sixth worst of all Democrats.
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They don't talk about how gerrymandering and the advantages of incumbency make it hard to defeat sitting lawmakers.
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Democrats could also claim a more decisive victory if the value of incumbency slips in today's political environment.
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This year, many Democratic women ran in districts where gerrymandering or incumbency made it almost impossible to win.
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Rojas pointed out that the Democratic Party has an incumbency rate of nearly—but not quite—100 percent.
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The court order had stated that mapmakers could consider incumbency in setting boundaries, but did not require it.
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What's missing is a commitment by the U.N. and world leaders to take on the fossil fuel incumbency.
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But he's not that far ahead, particularly when you take into account his advantages of incumbency and name recognition.
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In Missouri, incumbency and a 4 to 1 spending advantage were not enough to save outgoing senator Claire McCaskill.
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"He's got all the advantages of incumbency, and so this is no slam dunk for Katie Hill to win."
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Then it delves into individual district races, weighing things such as voting history, incumbency, fundraising and candidates' ideological views.
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Though incumbency gives him a boost, absent some game-changing event Mr Trump would struggle against a strong opponent.
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After all, Trump has an incumbency advantage; the political landscape assures him of winning particular states without a campaign.
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But as Zach noted, this is another power of incumbency: Campaign mail that doesn't cost the President a thing.
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One is incumbency — most incumbents tend to be returned to office, and the GOP simply has more House incumbents.
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But Mr. Pittenger also had other advantages that came with incumbency: money, name recognition and the prestige of power.
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But he's got weaker odds than he probably should, considering the state of the economy and his incumbency advantages.
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"In general, eliminating the power of incumbency creates a great deal of advantage for House Democratic challengers," Luján wrote.
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Aside from the power and prestige of incumbency, President Trump does have one huge advantage heading into 2020: cash.
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While the D.C.C.C. is screening political consulting firms for "incumbency loyalty," it's not doing the same for real values.
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Now, it would be easy to argue that this is merely Democratic incumbent senators merely using the incumbency advantage.
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Accounting for incumbency effects, the large Democratic edge in special elections translates to a small edge in the overall race.
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"Undeniably, there is an incumbency, a legacy of organizations growing up using Microsoft" to just stick with it, Raghavan said.
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Now incumbency is almost an inherit disadvantage with the entire Republican base and volunteer corps demanding we drain the swamp.
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One of the biggest incumbency advantages is the ability to bank money for potential future challenges—just ask Mick Mulvaney.
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This question, which ignores the actual candidates in a race and the power of incumbency, leads to notoriously noisy results.
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As GOP strategist Ford O'Connell wrote in The Hill this week, the power of incumbency is already a huge predictor.
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Anyone Mr. Cuomo appoints would have the advantage of incumbency — and the likely blessing of the Democratic Party — in November.
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Ms. Nixon had no such moment at the microphone, one of the many advantages of incumbency she does not enjoy.
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Those who favor such a system say it lessens the advantages of incumbency by reducing the impact of large donors.
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"Incumbency matters and Nvidia has a much wider AI/machine learning ecosystem that will be tough to match," he wrote.
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At the beginning of the cycle, Republicans seemed to possess big structural edges: the advantages of incumbency, gerrymandering and geography.
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Ironically, the district wasn't considered competitive last November, due more to the power of a Republican's incumbency than any political metric.
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Hyde-Smith's speech was peppered with references to her close dealings with the Trump administration and other advantages of her incumbency.
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He won again in 2004 mostly on the back of the incumbency advantage at the height of the war on terror.
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Mr Sisi has the perks of incumbency: a pliant parliament, a repressive police force and an iron grip on the media.
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One thing I hear when I listen to the third solution there is it also creates a huge return to incumbency.
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He then solidified that precedent in 2012 when he invested in social media as a campaign strategy to protect his incumbency.
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Yet he has the benefit of incumbency and is likely to win, although probably only in a second round, diplomats say.
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And even the incumbency boost hasn't been enough to deliver a second term to presidents whose approval ratings fell too low.
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Republican pollster Ashlee Rich Stephenson said on Wednesday that "the power of incumbency" outweighs low approval ratings to get lawmakers reelected.
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It's a little difficult to control for the incumbency factor because it has significantly lessened over the last 22018 years ago.
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Denham has raised $2.7 million, more than twice as much as Harder, and carries the inherent advantages that come with incumbency.
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Still, Republicans regularly outraise Democrats — although Democrats are having a record fundraising year — and races are more often won from incumbency.
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"The incumbency rule is no longer in place anymore," a top Republican strategist with knowledge of the decision told The Hill.
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It's tough to overcome the inertia of political incumbency, and these are districts that elected moderate Republicans in the first place.
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A tradition of anti-incumbency votes illustrates that; nine of Virginia's past 10 gubernatorial elections have been lost by the president's party.
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Yet though he stands to benefit from such ploys, the incumbency effect in 2020 will probably be weaker than in the past.
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This underlines the fact that the depletion of swing voters, and consequent reduction in the incumbency advantage, is a long-running trend.
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With that growth, Google has grown accustomed to some of the benefits of incumbency that many dominant players in the market enjoy.
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But without the fillip of incumbency, the neophyte Republican candidates vying to fill seats are sure to do a bit worse anyway.
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Stewart Firth, an Australian National University (ANU)Pacific Islands research fellow, said Bainimarama had the advantage of incumbency was likely to win.
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But there is something antitrust advocates have that Warren and the financial reformers didn't have a decade ago: the power of incumbency.
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Kennedy wanted to know whether voters could assert an interest in preserving incumbency and whether the Legislature as a whole could intervene.
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Heading into 2020, Trump's primary strengths remain incumbency — since 2023, nearly 80 percent of incumbent presidents have been reelected — and the economy.
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So today we'll look at contests in normally Republican seats that could still prove competitive because there's no or little incumbency advantage.
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For the Democrats, the power of incumbency and a fund-raising advantage meant little against the strength of this underlying cultural change.
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The landfill was closed in late 2001 as Mr. Molinari was stepping down as borough president, his incumbency ended by term limits.
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Peterson's political survival — he's running for his 22020th House term, a development first reported by Politico — has demonstrated the power of incumbency.
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Now Mayor de Blasio is the overwhelming favorite, his record and the power of incumbency warding off all but a few challengers.
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Couple Trump's economy and incumbency advantages with Democrats' potential liability in not representing base groups, and the 2020 threat grows still larger.
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Dropping these three, incumbency is even more powerful: The 11 winners' popular vote share rose by an average of 5.3 percentage points.
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It's hard enough to beat an incumbent president, who usually has a substantial fundraising advantage and the power that comes through incumbency.
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"She has the power of incumbency, but he has definitely caught up on many, if not all, other campaign metrics," Bentz added.
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A well-funded push to unseat her, something the Democratic AG group wouldn't have participated in under the incumbency agreement, could spell trouble.
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Not a defeat, but a leap forward Yet, for Reagan, it wasn't enough to overcome Ford's early wins or the advantages of incumbency.
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You could think of bitcoin and ethereum as the incumbency, but it's not like there's a Mark Zuckerberg running one of those companies.
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On the one hand, it mitigates the advantages of incumbency: Royce, for instance, was sitting on nearly $3.5 million in his campaign account.
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The party remains level with Labour in opinion polls despite the turmoil created by Brexit and the drag of incumbency (see chart 2).
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Even with Trump's waning support among some Republicans, the power of the incumbency will protect much of the GOP hold on the House.
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Instead of encouraging free-market innovation and private investment, current government policy discourages commercial-type competition, reinforces incumbency and opposes reforms to improve.
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"The power of incumbency, the power of long relationships, really matters here," he added, noting Crowley's and Maloney's long roots in their districts.
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ADP IS NOT WHERE KODAK IS TODAY, BUT THEY'RE AT RISK IF THEY DON'T INNOVATE AND COMPETE, AND THEY HAVE A HUGE INCUMBENCY.
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"If we let an incumbent stay in just until they want to leave, that's possibly 20 to 30 years of incumbency," Dhillon said.
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The Republicans would then count on the advantages of incumbency to allow enough of the 23 members in Clinton-won districts to survive.
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Mr. Fitzpatrick has a record of attracting crossover votes from Democrats and enjoys the advantages of incumbency but is in his first term.
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Republicans also have the advantage of incumbency, which, on average, allows members to run about seven percentage points ahead of the national party.
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Democratic House candidates were helped by the declining value of incumbency, which made it harder for Republicans to outrun disapproval of the president.
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Holding both that position and being interim mayor gave her unchecked authority and what her ousters said was an unfair power of incumbency.
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Astonishingly, it's enough for the Democrats to effectively deny the Republicans the advantage of incumbency that usually helps a party hold the House.
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But the Trump campaign, with its advantage of incumbency and a presidential megaphone, is already further along than any other would-be opponents.
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Even by Albany standards, they will have outdone themselves, by giving Ms. James the unearned advantage of incumbency in the September Democratic primary.
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But the district did vote for a Democrat in the 2008 blue wave, and the GOP just lost the incumbency edge when Garrett retired.
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Election prognosticators think this is a toss-up race, mostly on the strength of Heller's incumbency, but the senator should be considered extremely vulnerable.
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But even in 2012, when turnout was high, the GOP held a majority thanks to a mix of incumbency advantages and favorable district boundaries.
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Clinton won by 3 more points than Warren, despite 22016 being a better year for Democrats nationally and Warren having the advantage of incumbency.
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Incumbency is now in question, as Kenyans are widely celebrating the independence of the judiciary as much as they are supporting their preferred candidates.
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Now that it's an open seat, it'll likely give Democrats a higher chance of winning, since they won't face McSally's incumbency and fundraising prowess.
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Though incumbency has become less powerful over time, it is still worth at least a couple of points to Republicans and perhaps even more.
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The biggest difference between the two is the matter of incumbency, which Mr. McDaniel hopes to turn into an unsurmountable liability for Mr. Wicker.
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But the district did vote for a Democrat in the 250 blue wave, and the GOP just lost the incumbency edge when Garrett retired.
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More important, Mr. Trump benefits from incumbency and continued economic recovery, and he's riding a wave of national populism that has yet to crest.
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But Republicans have gradually been losing the advantages of incumbency as well, most obviously because of 34 recent retirements in Republican-held congressional districts.
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Now both Walz and Rosen have forced their party to figure out how to hold the seats without the built-in benefits of incumbency.
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The causes of last week's election result are likely not very profound: incumbency, partisanship, and an electorate with some reservations about the Democratic candidate.
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Abramowitz's own forecast model -- which factors inflation-adjusted economic growth, incumbency and a president's approval rating -- puts Trump at about 563-50 odds for reelection.
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With the power of the incumbency and a head start on his opponents, the President has everything going for him -- except his own big mouth.
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Mrs Clinton risks finding herself an unhappy hybrid: a candidate weighed down by all the disadvantages of incumbency, while enjoying rather few of the benefits.
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For this election, Flippable decided to create a model that would identify the most competitive districts based on their previous voting history and incumbency status.
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The contest also will test the power of incumbency against a call for generational change along with a measure of whether Trump's popularity is transferable.
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I contend, for example, that some solar deployment policies create ring-fenced markets in which mature technologies can lock out emerging competitors through incumbency advantages.
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Strange, on the other hand, has the power of incumbency on his side but faces questions about the circumstances of his appointment to the Senate.
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Eric McGhee of the University of California and John Sides of George Washington University, argued that incumbency may have played a larger role than boundaries.
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There is the advantage of what's called "a network effect," which means the bigger you get, the more your platform reinforces its own entrenched incumbency.
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Sustained incumbency is certainly not the point of seeking office and there are times when we must risk our careers in favor of our principles.
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Even a somewhat smaller incumbency bonus could easily yield more victories for Democrats in 22010, perhaps especially in the highly competitive districts that supported Mrs.
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The timing ensured that Mr. Farrell could essentially handpick his Democratic successor, sidelining voters in his Upper Manhattan district after four decades of his incumbency.
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The incumbency advantage is perhaps the best-established effect in American elections, and Republicans entered the 2012 election with many more seats than the Democrats.
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And to turn our two-party system into a single party system -- a party in which incumbency would be the common ideological thread between politicians.
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But you'll need a lot of people who voted for Ryan in the past not to vote for him again, and incumbency is very important.
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Partisanship and incumbency being what they are, even with approval ratings in the twenties Trump would still be the favorite to win his party's nomination.
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Scott Will, executive director of the Republican Attorneys General Association, confirmed the decision to abolish the incumbency rule, but declined to discuss specifics of the vote.
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Mr. Plouffe said he knew the advantages of incumbency intimately from the 2012 Obama re-election campaign and wanted to blunt the current White House's advantage.
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Instead, your incumbency will be preserved by your personal connections to the community and a sense that you've performed your custodial duties with competence and care.
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If one were to take away the incumbency advantage that we would give to Nelson, it makes a big difference in our perception of the race.
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Strategists in both parties expect Lamb's success to prompt another wave of GOP retirements, leaving the party defending more vulnerable seats without the advantage of incumbency.
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But that shouldn't obscure the reality that Trump's victory was an electoral fluke against an overconfident opponent who didn't have the many advantages of presidential incumbency.
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Now that Esty is suffering through a bit of a scandal, it wouldn't be too surprising if she loses the advantage normally associated with incumbency. 2.
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Republicans seem to prefer keeping their powder dry for a 2020 campaign, when Clinton might be weighed down by incumbency and 12 years of Democratic rule.
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Rohrabacher has the advantage of incumbency and still won reelection in 2016 by 17 points, although Cook Political Report ranks the race as a toss-up.
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The extraordinarily high reelection rate of House members has a lot to do with gerrymandering, of course, but studies show that incumbency effects are very real.
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The BJP-led state government's slow response to the farm crisis has inflamed the anti-incumbency mood ahead of a state election due by October, Abse said.
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"Sustained incumbency is not the point of seeking office, and there are times when we must risk our careers in favor of our principles," said Republican Sen.
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"What we're really doing is leveling the playing field," Ms. Tymas said, noting the inherent advantages of incumbency and often low voter engagement in district attorney races.
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Moreover, as the cost of mounting a political campaign has risen, incumbency in Congress has created an important financial advantage in attracting the money needed to win.
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The advantages of incumbency helped Jim Tedisco, an assemblyman from the Schenectady area, win the Republican primary for the Senate seat that overlaps with his current district.
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But according to the Emory study, the partisanship of a given district is becoming a better predictor of who will win a given congressional race than incumbency.
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But right now, Facebook appears to have surmounted the Snapchat challenge — thanks to smart acquisitions, speedy product development, and the power of incumbency with billions of users.
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But the timing of his reelection was fortunate: The anti-incumbency wave that swept through the GOP ranks in 2010 and 2012 had largely crested by 2014.
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If incumbency is worth what it has been, even a wave of 2006 or 2010 proportions might not be enough to give the Democrats a clear victory.
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A good part of Mr. Trump's edge in 2016 was the incumbency factor — after eight years of a Democratic president, voters would ordinarily have wanted a Republican.
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The advantage of incumbency has been declining steadily over the last few decades, and it has fallen to around five points in the House elections since 22006.
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Further, the map changes in Pennsylvania caused at least one Republican to retire who might otherwise have not, which in turn limited the Republican incumbency advantage nationally.
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But he still has the benefit of incumbency — and he has gotten very, very far politically by refusing to play the game the way anyone else does.
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First is the power of incumbency: the Irish presidency (based closely on the British monarchy which it replaced), is largely a ceremonial position, with rarely invoked constitutional powers.
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Ms Klobuchar scores highly on measures of electability—an effort to quantify a candidate's electoral success when allowing for national trends, the benefits of incumbency and other factors.
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Although the BJP might drop a few seats because of anti-incumbency sentiment, it was not losing everything, as some surveys forecast, said party spokesman G.V.L. Narasimha Rao.
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Despite the myriad advantages of incumbency and control of Congress, there are more House members with less cash on hand than their Democratic challengers than the quarter before.
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That's-- but it's counterintuitive because they have that incumbency, they have the students, they have, you know, the brand to a certain extent, but they have the technology.
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For one, the high costs and difficulties of mounting a campaign, let alone a successful one, have contributed to high incumbency rates and older and wealthier Congress members.
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The Upshot's Nate Cohn calculated that Democrats did about 6900 points better in the specials than in Virginia and New Jersey, even accounting for incumbency and other factors.
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However, recent research by Danny Hayes and Jennifer Lawless suggests that the adverse media coverage faced by female politicians is more accurately attributed to partisanship, ideology, and incumbency.
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Five lawyers — all of them former prosecutors — stepped in to challenge Mr. Gonzalez, but none could overcome his wide institutional support or the advantage of his brief incumbency.
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Republicans have largely dominated state offices since 3503, when a conservative wave helped them wrest control from Democrats, who had regarded incumbency as a birthright for a century.
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There are a lot of reasons for this structural G.O.P. advantage, like partisan gerrymandering, the inefficient distribution of Democrats in heavily Democratic cities, and the benefit of incumbency.
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Even controlling for factors like the partisan lean of the district, political spending, and incumbency, candidates that backed Medicare-for-all performed "significantly worse" than those that didn't.
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Nor, he speculated, could the state's center-right senior United States senator, Johnny Isakson, win in a Republican primary if he were running without the benefit of incumbency.
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While Trump was the underdog in the last election, two things give him a major boost besides fundraising: the strong economy (assuming it still stays strong) and incumbency.
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Still, the poll numbers do get to the basic fact that Trump's strategy has not been working, if the definition of working is to create a politically invincible incumbency.
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It would take growth in real disposable income of greater than 2% in the months before the 2020 election to counteract the effect of 12 years of Democratic incumbency.
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There is one family of forecasts that did better: those which ignore both polls and candidates and predict results based exclusively on structural factors like economic performance and incumbency.
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The second reason we should pay attention to the incumbency advantage is that 14 of the 18 non-incumbent women who won their primaries will face incumbents in November.
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Right now [Trump] doesn't seem to have that, but he does have the advantage of incumbency and a force of nature quality that opponents will struggle to grapple with.
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Those factors — like incumbency, geography and gerrymandering — have been offset by the retirements of Republican representatives and court rulings that have altered or torn up Republican-drawn congressional maps.
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Gerrymandering, incumbency and the tendency for Democrats to win urban areas by lopsided margins combine to give Republicans a considerable advantage in the fight for control of the House.
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As the Democrats begin what could be a fractious nominating contest, Mr. Trump enjoys both the traditional advantages of incumbency and almost total control of the Republican Party apparatus.
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"This is really going to be a vote about him and his incumbency and where he would define he wants things to go," said David Winston, a Republican strategist.
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He's the favorite at this point given the strength of the economy and the advantage of incumbency, but incumbents sometimes lose and Democrats have a number of strong candidates.
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Not only does the president enjoy the power and platform of incumbency, but by and large Americans have already formed their views over the course of the first term.
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It has lined up with different governing ideologies and policy programs over the years, but the core motivation is the preservation of privilege by those who benefit from incumbency.
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That's something that could obviously be attributed in large part to Trump's incumbency advantage and a GOP field devoid of any other serious contenders other than libertarian Bill Weld.
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The district profiles as evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, which explains why it could be competitive, but Clinton beat Trump by 7 points and Murphy has the incumbency advantage.
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When I used the results of other Senate races this year and controlled for incumbency and past presidential vote, a Hyde-Smith win of about 613 percentage points was predicted.
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Looking at the individual seat level and controlling for incumbency and the past presidential vote, Democrats had on-par or slightly better performances than Republicans did in 2010 and 2014.
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"Kansas is not immune from the widespread anti-incumbency sentiment we have seen across the nation this election season," Eileen Hawley, a spokeswoman for the governor, said in a statement.
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This system of price discovery, referred to by participants as the "window", is well understood by market players and its efficiency over many years gives it the advantage of incumbency.
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Even with a heavy legal overhead, the amount of money that was both raised and stored away will be daunting for Mr. Trump's eventual challenger, underscoring the benefits of incumbency.
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If the party holding the White House cannot unite in defense of its incumbency, that sends a negative signal to voters, as well — not just Sanders's supporters, but all voters.
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He finds that a small number of economic variables, such as growth and inflation, and a small number of political variables, such as incumbency, are good predictors of election results.
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And whether or not they're doing a good job, once in office, elected officials benefit from an incumbency advantage — more money, higher name recognition — that makes them difficult to replace.
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Trump has the advantage of incumbency and can get a head start in building out those swing-state operations, as a crowded field of Democrats battles it out for the nomination.
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It amounts to an old-school political power play by a veteran politician intent on leveraging every advantage of incumbency — even as public polls have him far ahead of Ms. Nixon.
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"That's where he lives, that's where he's a 16-year incumbent, and that's where he's got a huge incumbency advantage," the lawyer, Michael A. Carvin, said of his client's original district.
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But now their retirements are robbing the Democrats of their incumbency advantage, and the GOP has already deployed Trump himself to rally in the 8th District to boost GOP turnout there.
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For President Donald Trump, the power and the perils of incumbency are on full display as he seeks to steer the nation through a never-before-seen moment in modern America.
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Critics quickly noted, however, that the Senate baseline was taken from a set of random maps that accounted for incumbency in a chamber where nearly six in 10 incumbents are Republicans.
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Incumbency, once considered a rite-of-passage in Africa, has become as much a liability as it is an asset for the Unity Party (UP) candidate current vice president, Joseph Boakai.
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There are also lessons here about not making assumptions about the power of incumbency, and about understanding changes in a district and the way a new voice can powerfully reflect them.
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While Tuesday's speech was billed as a kickoff rally, Trump's campaign has been underway for months, taking advantage of the power of incumbency and setting a clear path to his party's nomination.
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Four years ago, Bill Clinton came to Obama's rescue, delivering a turning-point speech at the Democratic National Convention that put the nation's slow-improving economy into a favorable context for incumbency.
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While it's a little early to see how actual performance numbers work out, from a pricing standpoint, AMD looks to be continuing its aggressive push back against Intel's incumbency in the market.
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In more-or-less neutral congressional years without a big wave for one party or the other, FairVote finds the incumbency advantage has recently been somewhere between 3 percent and 7 percent.
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"With the power of incumbency, he's probably virtually bulletproof once he's in there," said the GOP strategist, who requested anonymity to speak frankly about Romney's potential candidacy before he has actually announced.
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"I think you saw a lot of people just kind of fed up with what's going on, the current incumbency, and that's on the federal level and state level," Mr. Arnold said.
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With Democrats increasingly likely to hold most or all of their Senate seats (due to Trump's unpopularity and incumbency advantage), Democrats need to pick up only two seats to win the Senate.
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So the question for 2020 may well be whether Mr. Trump can overcome the majority of voters' poor perception of him and use a good economy and incumbency to win re-election.
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It further diminishes the already deteriorating Republican structural advantages — including incumbency and geography — that have long been the key to G.O.P. hopes of surviving a so-called wave election in the House.
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So 20163 will be McSally's second chance in two years to face Arizona voters -- and she's hoping to benefit from incumbency and a shakeup of her campaign team since her 2018 defeat.
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But at least Iowa held a Republican caucus; several other states' Republican Party organizations aren't even going to hold primaries or caucuses, refusing to countenance possible (if unlikely) threats to Trump's incumbency.
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Through that kind of manipulation, a president could gain the advantage of incumbency and thus a smoother path to a second term that would put him beyond the reach of criminal prosecution.
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Since the districts could be justified under traditional redistricting criteria like compactness, contiguity, incumbency protection and political considerations, the court said, race could not have been the predominant reason for drawing them.
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Without the incumbency advantage in a presidential cycle, seats that were vulnerable before become even more precarious for Republicans, and seats that were slightly safer may be targeted by Democratic campaign operatives.
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Mr Trump is therefore unlikely to get a three-point boost from his incumbency, or anything close to that, because it is unclear whether such a large group of swing voters even exists.
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Working against them is the incumbency advantage : it is hard to defeat those already elected into office, although Republican retirements and the large number of qualified candidates Democrats are fielding should help Democrats.
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The gravity-defying popularity of Barack Obama—whose 26% approval rating makes him more popular than Ronald Reagan at the end of his second term—had seemed to soften that anti-incumbency kick.
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But he has found himself suddenly in a race that's too close too call because an attractive young Democrat, Jason Kander, has used Blunt's incumbency and long-standing ties to Washington against him.
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The historical custom is for the party out of power in the White House to hold its convention first, so there can sometimes be an incumbency factor built in to candidate support levels.
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Kaine also stands to benefit from the structural advantages of incumbency, raising more than $2 million in the second quarter of 2018 and starting July with more than $6 million in the bank.
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Goldman's economists said the president is bolstered by "the advantage of first-term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance," in what is sure to be a "close call" election, according to Yahoo.
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If Wolf and the legislature can't agree on a map by mid-February, the state Supreme Court has said it would impose new maps itself — maps that likely wouldn't take incumbency into account.
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"At 30,000 feet, I think Marino's in a little bit of trouble, but closer to the ground, not so much because of the advantage of incumbency," Charlie Gerow, a Pennsylvania Republican strategist, said.
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What's clear, though, is that both effects are real, and it's hard to argue that incumbency and geography couldn't have made the difference in the Democrats' failure to take the House in 2012.
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The results, due over the weekend, will go some way towards answering a big question: is Africa getting used to the idea that a well co-ordinated opposition can overcome the power of incumbency?
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But while the third-term Arizonian has been a past target of the Republicans, her margin of victory has grown with her incumbency, and she won in November easily, 61 percent to 39 percent.
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But not only is there no evidence to back Facebook's assertions, there are many other, more obvious and less dangerous ways to fight the advantages of incumbency, like the public matching of campaign donations.
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The winds are blowing strongly toward Democrats, a wave could be building, but incumbency, gerrymandering and the geographic concentration of Democratic voters may conspire to break that wave before it washes away GOP control.
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He added a new variable that takes away some of the incumbency advantage and that hurts members of the outgoing incumbent's party in open races when the incumbent is popular (like, say, Hillary Clinton).
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In general, the split decision between the House and the Senate can be attributed mainly to the combination of the growing relationship between presidential vote and congressional vote and the declining value of incumbency.
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With Royce out of the way, the six Democratic candidates -- including former $266 million lottery winner Gil Cisneros -- stand a much stronger shot at defeating a Republican who doesn't have the advantage of incumbency.
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In an election where offering "change" could be an asset and the power of incumbency somewhat diminished, the contrast between Pureval and Chabot has the potential to sway some voters toward the Democratic challenger.
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The political scientists needed only to find that the alternative explanations for the Republican edge — incumbency and the tendency for Democrats to "waste" votes in heavily Democratic cities — could account for that percentage point.
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It's whether the combination of gerrymandering, incumbency and geography could be enough to let the House Republicans survive a so-called wave election, like the one that last swept Democrats into power in 2006.
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Mario Cuomo was caught up in a combination of incumbency fatigue and the 1994 Republican wave that Al D'Amato saw the chances of a little-known state senator named George Pataki being pretty good.
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Katie Porter, Harley Rouda, Gil Cisneros and Levin -- will enjoy the built-in advantages of incumbency, including a two-year campaign runway and the chance to build a record of work for the district.
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He's flirted with enough disaster in his first year to invite not only doubts about the power of his incumbency, but also speculation about impeachment, resignation, or a decision against standing for a second term.
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In a country where previously routine anti-incumbency had generated decades of fissiparous politics, the BJP appears to have become the natural party of government, just as Congress was in the first years after independence.
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His instinct is to identify, in any conflict, the side that is claiming authority or incumbency, and then to throw his weight against that claim, in favor of the unauthorized or the unlicensed—the intruder.
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The American people feel Congress as an institution is broken and failing to do its fundamental job, yet the structural advantages of incumbency are so great that few people ever get fired from this job.
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He found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes.
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But there is an irony to a Silicon Valley executive stressing incumbency as a sales pitch; if anyone should be afraid of a disruptor, offering a service no one else does, shouldn't it be them?
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Incumbent members of Congress tend to get reelected in part because having won in the past is simply proof that they're a reasonably good candidate for the district, but in part because incumbency provides concrete advantages.
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These aren't lock-in races, but Democrats are hoping to make as much progress as they can here, so their candidates can gain the benefits of incumbency and send longtime formidable Republican incumbents off into retirement.
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The world-class fuckup that was Tuesday night's Alabama special election, as extraordinary as it was, only adds further credence to the notion that a "blue wave" is coming to cream the GOP's incumbency next fall.
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They expected Kim Reynolds — the former lieutenant governor who inherited gubernatorial incumbency when Trump tapped longtime Republican fixture Terry Branstad to be the US ambassador to China — to cruise in her bid for a full term.
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"Though the election looks like it will go to the wire, the greater likelihood, based on cold-blooded analysis, is that experience, depth and state incumbency will triumph over youthfulness," said Eldred Masunungure, the institute's director.
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In a Monday op-ed for the New York Times, Steven Rattner argued that Trump's incumbency and the continued strength of the economy should, under a more typical president, point to his easy victory in 2020.
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Samsung's Galaxy S83 and S7 Edge are the latest iterations of the most successful line of Android smartphones to date, while LG's G5 is a massive leap forward and a legitimate attempt at dethroning Samsung's incumbency.
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Again and again, Mr. Cuomo's time in the public eye — cultivating alliances, forging policies — overshadowed Ms. Nixon's upstart campaign, a reminder of the governor's hefty incumbency advantage despite Ms. Nixon's efforts to wield it against him.
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If lawmakers decide to go with someone else, that person could become the automatic frontrunner for the position in an election, gaining an incumbency advantage for both the primary and potentially the general in November 2018.
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Perhaps the best news for Republicans is that despite the avalanche of Democratic money, many still entered October on at least equal financial footing, often as a result of years of incumbency or past fund-raising.
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The Democrats have succeeded in recruiting well-funded and strong candidates in many of the battlegrounds, which has tended to lessen the advantage of incumbency even in the districts where Republicans are running for re-election.
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But Trump has a record, a message and the advantages of incumbency to drive home the simple choice: No matter what you think of me personally, you are better off today than you were four years ago.
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"He is enjoying temporary incumbency and has got no moral authority whatsoever to officially open parliament." additional reporting by Katharine Houreld, John Ndiso and Duncan Miriri; Writing by Katharine Houreld; Editing by Toby Chopra and Andrew Heavens
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Of course, AT&T has something of an an advantage in all broadband deployment matters, thanks to the advantages of incumbency: notably, it has a head-start in both physical infrastructure (owning utility poles) and political clout.
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But perhaps the greatest danger at present is the incumbency of an American president who despises international norms, who disparages free trade and who continually flirts with abandoning America's essential role in maintaining the global legal order.
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The main point in Ms Klobuchar's favour, though, is how highly she scores on measures of electability—an effort to quantify a candidate's electoral success when allowing for national trends, the benefits of incumbency and other factors.
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But I believe it might cause many Americans who are at present quite disaffected from the practices and institutions of our democracy to begin to see that their elected representatives value their reputations more than their incumbency.
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The polls have also showed some concern about the so-called power of incumbency, which relates to larger infrastructure projects such as roads and hospitals being built or commissioned in the months leading up to the election.
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Former President Obama tapped Comey, a Republican, in 2013 to serve the traditional 10-year term of the FBI director — an incumbency designed to insulate the head of the nation's top law enforcement agency from political pressures.
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My view is that there haven't been nearly enough of these contests to be confident that Democrats are on track for such significant gains, or to be sure that the incumbency bonus for Republicans is so small.
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Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, which tracks congressional races nationally, said the victory would allow Republicans to enjoy the power of incumbency in the district and avoid having to spend millions to dislodge McCready.
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Mr. Trump's vow to push for passage of the plan in the first 503 days of his presidency is sliding off the calendar amid the daily chaos of his incumbency and the Republican obsession with crippling Obamacare.
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As it turns out, "there is no systematic advantage for veterans on Election Day," according to political scientist Jeremy Teigen: A candidate's military service turns out to matter a lot less than incumbency, ad buys, and gerrymandering.
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But whether Ossoff can pull off the improbable upset or not, Democrats will continue to face deep structural disadvantages to reclaiming Congress — most notably, gerrymandered congressional districts and the incumbency advantage that favors those running for reelection.
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In 2014, Ms. Teachout's grass-roots campaign for the Democratic nomination for governor proved embarrassingly potent to Mr. Cuomo, who — despite incumbency, millions in the bank and a famous political pedigree — won only 63 percent of the vote.
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Even in the alternative universe in which Mr Trump could restrain himself and count on incumbency and the strong economy to see him home, there might not be enough persuadable centrists left for the strategy to pay off.
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The case for Morgan, assuming he gets through this bureaucratic snafu, is Bergman doesn't have much of an incumbency advantage and Morgan has a profile — moderate, military — that national Democrats hope will play well in areas like this.
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They enter the cycle with the advantage of incumbency and a highly favorable congressional map, thanks to partisan gerrymandering and the tendency for Democrats to win with overwhelming margins in heavily Democratic urban areas (and thus "waste" votes).
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Slowly but surely, the considerable structural advantages — like incumbency, geography and gerrymandering — that give the Republicans a chance to survive a so-called wave election are fading, giving Democrats a clearer path to a House majority in November.
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Against Trump's incumbency and already impressive war chest, Biden has a fundraising apparatus that, in February, was lagging three candidates who have since dropped out and will be hobbled further by the cessation of in-person fundraising events.
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Decades of political science work on election forecasting implies that presidents running for reelection enjoy an incumbency advantage, that a strong economy helps the incumbent's party, and that high levels of US military fatalities hurt the incumbent's party.
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While some people reflexively argue that gerrymandering is the culprit, Wasserman points out that other factors -- such as the urban cloistering of the most partisan Democratic voters, incumbency and uncontested races -- are also to blame for this possibility.
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Moreover, she has the power of incumbency of sorts -- the ability to raise tens of millions for Democratic candidates as well as to dole out prized committee assignments critical for members to ascend the hierarchy in the caucus.
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The case for Morgan, assuming he gets through this bureaucratic snafu, is Bergman doesn't have much of an incumbency advantage, and Morgan has a profile — moderate, military — that national Democrats hope will play well in districts like this.
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The kickoff rally followed months of work by the Trump campaign to get its operations up and running well ahead of the general election, reaping the benefits of incumbency while a crowded field of Democrats squabble for the nomination.
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An upset in the election in April for the governor of Jakarta, in which Jokowi's ally, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (or Ahok), lost despite high approval ratings and the advantage of incumbency, has made Indonesian politics look far more unpredictable.
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Republican establishment candidates have long held enormous positional power in the form of incumbency or long histories of public office, high name recognition, influential endorsements, large donor networks of bell cows, bundlers and donors, plus leading political action committees.
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Indeed, a simple model would give you the counterintuitive finding that a strong "right track" number is actually bad — that's right, bad — for the president's party after controlling for any combination of the president's approval, the economy or incumbency.
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This same research suggests that because consultants are hired by candidates who already enjoy competitive advantages like incumbency and money (both scare off quality challengers), it is difficult to assess the value of consultants or the services they provide.
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Lipinski also enjoyed over 15 years of incumbency advantage and the backing of powerful local labor unions including the Illinois AFL-CIO and Chicago Federation of Labor, as well as anti-abortion groups like the Susan B. Anthony List.
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In each of these elections the presumptive favorite benefited from incumbency as a sitting president (William Howard Taft and George H.W. Bush), vice president (Hubert Humphrey and Al Gore), or first lady, senator, and secretary of state (Hillary Clinton).
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In others, they may generate a simple, traditional, anti-incumbency bias — perhaps in the unexpected runoff in Chile, in Venezuela if an election is actually held and quite possibly in Colombia, where a highly successful president is highly unpopular.
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The combination significantly improves IBM's positioning in the rapid push toward hybrid cloud, bringing together the platform, incumbency, and expertise necessary to help customers with the vast majority (~1.53%) of applications that have yet to migrate to the public cloud.
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Jobs and wind farm plans are among the regional issues in Schleswig-Holstein, a state of 2.3 million voters that juts north of Hamburg and borders on Denmark, where Albig hopes to benefit from his incumbency advantage to return to power.
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What academics call the fundamentals of the race—the economy is performing modestly well, the same party has held power for eight years, and neither side benefits from incumbency—suggest a tie between an identikit Democrat and a generic Republican.
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But it was not enough to overcome the power of Mr. Barr's incumbency, a district that was structurally advantageous to Republicans and the closing moves of the president to roust his political base and make the election a referendum on him.
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But while that appointment has given Strange the power of incumbency, his proximity to the disgraced Bentley, who later resigned after pleading guilty to charges relating to an alleged extramarital affair and its cover-up, has drawn criticism from his rivals.
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Because the national political environment is supposed to heavily favor the Democrats (for example, Democrats hold a 7-percentage-point edge in an average of recent live interview generic ballot polls), the incumbency advantage was already likely to be smaller.
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But probably not all that different, since incumbency still provides a tremendous advantage, and most races are pretty much already decided for one party given the geographic distribution of party affiliation (a problem that goes far beyond gerrymandering, by the way).
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The so-called 'incumbency rule' observed by the state attorneys' party fundraising arms reflected a rare bit of bipartisanship in the polarized environment of U.S. politics, aimed at promoting cooperation across state lines on issues of common interest, such as consumer protection.
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And if those retirees are replaced by an entire class or two of new Senators and Representatives who eschew corporate/Wall Street backing, we could see very long-lasting change in the financial and political world because of the incumbency advantage alone.
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Whether because of cultural biases against women in leadership positions, female candidates viewing the prospect of fundraising as a significant hurdle to running, women feeling uneasy asking for money or general incumbency challenges, women have been at a disadvantage on the fundraising front.
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The loss of the advantage of incumbency has led Cook Political Report to increase the number of GOP-held seats in danger of shifting to Democrats from 20 at the start of the year to nearly double that number today, at 37.
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"To give you an idea: if Dems were to overperform PVI by 21625% in all 2900 districts this November (won't happen [because] of [Republican] incumbency, etc.), they'd pick up 220006 House seats — more than triple the 2202 they need," Wasserman tweeted on Thursday.
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That's not an awful result for Democrats given how powerful incumbency can be but given that these polls were released by a Democratic-leaning organization, it wouldn't surprise me if Republicans were in a bit better position in reality than these numbers showed.
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If you simulated the results of the 2018 election, using 2017 elections, but considered incumbency and weight contests by total vote — which places considerable emphasis on Virginia and New Jersey — the Democrats would be poised to win about 27 Republican-held seats.
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That the Republican may have eked out another win is a testament to the strength of incumbency and the convictions of his conservative base, who vote far more reliably than the new and the disillusioned voters whom the Harder coalition worked to enfranchise.
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The basics are simple: Decades of political science work on election forecasting imply that presidents running for reelection enjoy an incumbency advantage, that a strong economy helps the incumbent's party, and that high levels of US military fatalities hurt the incumbent's party.
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For a slew of reasons (gerrymandering, Democratic voters packing themselves into cities and the incumbency advantage), we've known for a while that Democrats would need to win a lot more votes than Republicans to take a majority of seats in the House.
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With fewer than 10 months to Election Day, and no credible challenger having emerged, Mayor Bill de Blasio's path to re-election in New York City would seem fairly assured, buoyed by the benefits of incumbency: name recognition and fund-raising strength.
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Senate Republicans have rallied behind Loeffler, with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell calling her a "terrific appointment," and the National Republican Senatorial Committee promising her the full backing of incumbency as she runs in a special election in November alongside first-term Sen.
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He won in 2016 by a whisker, few of his supporters have since deserted him, and the benefits of incumbency, in terms of name recognition, the mystique of the office and the many opportunities it presents to blend governing and campaigning, have long been recognised.
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Moody's forecasts predicted with 20163% confidence that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 presidential election, and the best-known political-science model that relies on so-called "fundamentals" such as the economy and incumbency overshot Mr Trump's popular vote margin by nearly three percentage points.
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Of course, no tactic will fully undo the damage, but Republicans can plausibly hope that the combination of a favorable map and incumbency effects will let them survive a moderately unfavorable national political climate — they just need to ensure it's not a massively unfavorable one.
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"The advantage of first-term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance ahead of the presidential election suggest that President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him," Hatzius said in a note on Saturday.
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"In our view, the advantage of first-term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance ahead of the presidential election suggest that President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him," wrote the economists.
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The name sounds official, and unexpectedly so — under an administration that initially seemed to hate art — and the search is streamlined: filters allow you to select logos by color, iconography, and font type, and the gender, incumbency, office, and district lean of each candidate.
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In Mr. King's case, his eight-term incumbency and his own history of racist comments — he once compared immigrants to dogs, not to mention the time he said they had "calves the size of cantaloupes" from hauling marijuana "across the desert" — seem to protect him.
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If Monday is any indication, what this means in practice is that the Democrat running against Trump will not only have to overcome the power of incumbency to ultimately be sworn into office, but also misinformation, dirty tricks, and perhaps even last-ditch conspiracy theories.
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Despite all the advantages of incumbency, Mr Mahama was ejected after just one term by voters fed up with how he had squandered Ghana's new oil wealth and allowed the country to be blighted by double-digit inflation and a youth unemployment rate of almost 50%.
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"If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump's election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren't enthusiastic and don't get out to vote," the report's authors write.
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Mr. Rubio, 45, who had told associates of his reluctance to give up the high profile and political power that a Senate seat offers, will enter the race with the formidable advantages of incumbency, national name recognition and strong ties to the Republican Party's donor base.
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She will be an understandable long shot on Election Day in November, given the power of incumbency, the six-to-one edge that Democrats hold over Republicans in New York City, and the 2012-point lead that Mr. de Blasio enjoys over her in a recent poll.
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For gubernatorial and senatorial races, there is generally some polling, so we use polling averages and fundamentals like partisan lean, incumbency, and national dynamics to estimate vote shares for individual candidates, and again run several thousand simulations to estimate probabilities for individual candidates and for the overall Senate.
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They could try to use the purportedly neutral principle of incumbency protection to draw a map that keeps 8 or 9 of those seats painted red—a strategy underlying their redrafted state legislative map which was approved by the same court this week—but they must tread carefully.
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"The AKP also probably will be coming up against the lethargy over incumbency, after nearly 18 years in office," Ash said, and "a desire for change" — similar to the forces that drove recent political shifts where entrenched administrations were pushed from office, have a chance at tipping the balance.
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And incumbency, corruption-free service and voting the right way did not prove sufficient for Representatives Joseph Crowley of New York and Michael P. Capuano of Massachusetts, who were upset by women of color, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley, who argued that this moment demanded something more.
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The surprising success of Bernie Sanders's insurgency should be a wake-up call to the Democratic establishment Ted Cruz's meteoric rise, explained Political scientists and commentators have a standard toolbox they use to explain elections, including variables such as the state of the economy, changing demographics, and incumbency fatigue.
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So far, some campaigns are using it in primary contests, but the real test will come in the general election, when tech-enabled Democrats find out whether their spiffy apps offer a meaningful counterbalance against Trump's advantages of incumbency and the social media juggernaut that is his reelection campaign.
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Editorial After a tumultuous month of incumbency, President Trump actually plans to begin his 2020 re-election campaign Saturday in Florida with one of his most vital campaign props in tow — the news media that he makes a daily art form of undermining with institutional and personal attacks.
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Political science forecasting models based on the economy and the duration of party incumbency did a pretty good job telling us what the result would likely be, as Seth Masket describes here and as Ezra Klein, Matt Yglesias, and Sarah Kliff explained in last week's The Weeds podcast.
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And yes, the lack of minority-majority districts before 1990 had been key to helping preserve the incumbency of many white Southern Democrats: Members of minority groups were distributed in a way that influenced elections yet did not make it possible for them to elect their preferred candidate.
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For all that, and notwithstanding the anti-incumbency mood, he is twice as popular as George W. Bush was at the end of his second term, and roughly as well-liked as Ronald Reagan; the only two-term president in recent history to leave office more popular was Bill Clinton.
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Statistician and FiveThirtyEight contributor Dean Strachan looked at every Senate race from 1990 and 2016 and examined how the following factors best explained outcomes: the presidential approval ratings, the state's partisan lean (as measured by the past presidential vote), incumbency and whether it was a midterm or presidential year election.
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"The advantage of the incumbency has so much to do with money and talking to swing-state voters while the other side is fighting it out in states that won't matter as much in the general election," said Rufus Gifford, the national finance director for former President Obama's reelection campaign.
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From very early on in his incumbency, Beilein struggled to win players overHe adhered to the stringent, unrelenting mentality that brought him success at the collegiate level, but the strategy that was effective with West Virginia Mountaineers and Michigan Wolverines players was not nearly as well-received by professional athletes.
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The Cook Political Report rates King's Long Island district as likely Republican (R+3), but his margin of victory in 2018 was the narrowest it has been in decades, suggesting that a strong Democratic candidate facing a Republican rival lacking King's name recognition and advantage of incumbency could flip the seat.
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A lot of political science work that would try to estimate the likely outcome of this presidential election on the basis of fundamentals — economic fundamentals, and what we know from history on the relative advantage of incumbency versus being a challenger — would actually suggest that this very well could be a Republican year.
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While control of the Senate in 2017 is presumably important with respect to Justice Scalia's successor on the Supreme Court, incumbency is a powerful (but not almighty) force — if the Democrats gain seats in the Senate and the House, then the 2018 election is a much more difficult cycle for the GOP.
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With the support of local party leaders, the advantage of incumbency and widespread name recognition as the host of a daily talk radio show, Mr. Nojay, who was first elected to the Assembly in 2012 and was a prominent cheerleader for Donald J. Trump, was supposed to have little trouble on Tuesday.
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But winning the seat in the 22nd Congressional District is still a challenge of the highest order, given the advantages of incumbency and Ms. Tenney's tendency to bask in the reflected glow of Mr. Trump, whom many Republicans in the district talk about with the affection usually reserved for a favorite uncle.
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Activists from groups like Progressive Women of Pelham, True Blue NY and Rockland Citizens Action Network have held postcard-writing parties, protests and educational forums to inform the public about the I.D.C. They face an uphill battle: The I.D.C. members have all the advantages of incumbency, from name recognition to fund-raising.
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There will be a lot more reasons given for why Mr. O'Rourke lost: Some experts will suggest old ideas, stressing the power of the incumbency, and others newer ideas, as in, Mr. O'Rourke spent too much time on social media encouraging the same like-minded folks to keep talking to one another.
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Mr. Edwards faced "an opponent that has replaced what he hoped would be a referendum on his own incumbency with a narrative that is, more or less, a referendum on Donald Trump," said Mary-Patricia Wray, a political consultant who has worked for Democrats and Republicans, including Mr. Edwards during his 2015 campaign.
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In their explanation of this year's models, they write a great deal about uncertainty, and explain that they try to account for four historically common types of polling mistakes: local error (in particular states or districts), regional or demographic error, incumbency-based error, and the possibility that one party will overperform in the polls nationwide.
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He starts from a stronger position in many ways than that day in 2015, fully in command of the advantages of incumbency — the gushing fund-raising spigot, the unparalleled media bullhorn, the tools of government to reward or punish, the big plane with "United States of America" stenciled on its side conveying power and respect.
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In the cause of figuring out whether, in November 20163, Trump will be rewarded with a second term, many numbers and dynamics get tossed around: the unemployment figures, the Dow Jones, the trade war, the advantages of incumbency, the peculiarities of the Electoral College and Trump's approval ratings, consistently low but not entirely static.
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Both episodes underscore the way Trump's 2020 operation is using the most controversial moments of his presidency to electrify his base, reinforce his brand as the disrupter in chief and assure voters that — despite his incumbency — he's as much a political outsider now as he was when he first ran for office 4½ years ago.
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But money and incumbency wasn't enough to buy Trump success during a midterm cycle in which his party lost 40 seats in the House and control of the chamber, and if early polling results hold, it likely won't be a winning strategy in 2020 — no matter how much cash his campaign and the RNC has in the bank.
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Mr. Joko, fortified by the power of incumbency since their last face-off, can point to numerous accomplishments over the past five years, including expanding health care for the poor and building thousands of miles of rural roads, bridges, airports and a Jakarta subway and rail line that is hoped will ease the city's notorious traffic.
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But it is still possible to call to mind lost times, real and imagined, when whites were more culturally dominant than they are today, when the economy worked better for more people (or at least for white people) than it does right now, and crucially, when political leaders were primarily concerned with helping the winners in past racial and social hierarchies preserve their incumbency.
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Voter sentiment has been consistently negative towards Washington and the party in power for the past 10 years (under both George W. Bush and Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaDick Cheney to attend fundraiser supporting Trump reelection: report Forget conventional wisdom — Bernie Sanders is electable 2020 Democrats fight to claim Obama's mantle on health care MORE), and it overwhelmed the incumbency advantage in all four waves.
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" More smart takes -- Julian Zelizer: Here is what we really need to be debating -- Aaron David Miller: Trump is re-writing the rulebook on incumbency Facebook buckles up Dipayan Ghosh observed that Tuesday's debate also "featured something we have never witnessed before on a presidential debate stage: 15 full minutes of open back-and-forth about how the government should contend with the increasing power of Silicon Valley.
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Congressional Democrats would have been happy and Republican legislators unhappy to see Vice President Al GoreAlbert (Al) Arnold Gore2020 Democrats release joint statement ahead of Trump's New Hampshire rally Deregulated energy markets made Texas a clean energy giant Gun safety is actually a consensus issue MORE succeed to the presidency — and for the same reason: it would give him the advantages of incumbency in the 2000 presidential election.
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Regardless of the mediocre approval rating and continuing woes of President TrumpDonald John TrumpFacebook releases audit on conservative bias claims Harry Reid: 'Decriminalizing border crossings is not something that should be at the top of the list' Recessions happen when presidents overlook key problems MORE, the power of incumbency and an overcrowded field of Democratic Party opponents mean that he is more likely than not headed for reelection next year.
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"If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump's election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren't enthusiastic and don't get out to vote," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics and co-author of the paper along with Dan White, the firm's director of government counsulting and fiscal policy research, and Bernard Yaros, an assistant director and economist.
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It could come to that, because despite the power of incumbency and a passionate political base, President TrumpDonald John TrumpDe Blasio calls on Trump to deploy military to set up hospitals in New York Hillicon Valley: Facebook launches portal for coronavirus information | EU sees spike in Russian misinformation on outbreak | Senate Dem bill would encourage mail-in voting | Lawmakers question safety of Google virus website Trump signs coronavirus aid package with paid sick leave, free testing MORE's political prospects are looking shaky.
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And if his campaign kickoff in Orlando was any indication, Trump's reelection campaign will be focused on the familiar themes of demonizing Democrats and stoking fears — hardly the sort of message aimed at building a broad coalition of voters That sort approach was enough to prevail over Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Trump now has the benefits of incumbency, a relatively strong economy, and a well-organized campaign infrastructure that stands in contrast to his seat-of-the-pants operation the first time around.
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